Guest Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Corvinus said: Dems were able to flip the seat for Oklahoma's 5th district (Oklahoma City basically). Oklahoma City and some of its suburbs and exurbs. Basically OKC, Edmond, Midwest City, Del City, Choctaw and Shawnee. It leaves out Moore, which is one of the largest suburbs in the OKC metro. This was a great win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 I think what should surprise the most is that of the races that were lean-D or better by 538, all have so far been won by Republicans. In fact, Dems have only won likely D or better races so far. It's probably no coincidence that Trump concentrated heavily on Senate race stumping. It also means that given IN and FL were both lean Dem and both look to be losses, the NV/AZ votes may not go well either. And what that means is that 2020 will be almost impossible for the Dems to win the Senate if they have a 55-45 split already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Maithanet said: The Senate map will hinge on how AZ/NV shake out, but it looks like 2020 is going to be at least a really tough road, possibly only a little easier than 2018 was. I look at that map and see opportunities. The red also looks big, but it's not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Kalbear said: That's pretty brutal. So basically every marginal Dem Senator save Manchin lost, right? And FL was leaning that way too. Yikes. Not quite, no, Tester was a marginal Dem incumbent in Montana. He is looking alright so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gertrude Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Iowa governor race called - Reynold (R). Boo! Just fucking boo. It's her administration that passed a heartbeat abortion bill and privatized state healthcare. It's just fucking gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Just now, Paxter said: Not quite, no, Tester was a marginal Dem incumbent in Montana. He is looking alright so far. Ah, that's good. Can't find a good thing that tracks just the senate races. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Kalbear said: I think what should surprise the most is that of the races that were lean-D or better by 538, all have so far been won by Republicans. In fact, Dems have only won likely D or better races so far. It's probably no coincidence that Trump concentrated heavily on Senate race stumping. It also means that given IN and FL were both lean Dem and both look to be losses, the NV/AZ votes may not go well either. And what that means is that 2020 will be almost impossible for the Dems to win the Senate if they have a 55-45 split already. I think Dems take NV but lose AZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 A more heartening stat I heard tonight - of the 20 districts that went Obama-Trump (that had reported at the time), 13 voted for a Democrat tonight out of 20. That's a decent sign of things to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Mexal said: I think Dems take NV but lose AZ. Okay, here's my tinfoil hat time - Nevada has something like 75% early voting and hasn't reported yet despite that. California is reporting and they usually take WEEKS to finish. Something Very Bad happened in Nevada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Walker looking shaky as anything in WI. But the Dems are in trouble in the CT governor's race (possibly the only state that the GOP will flip in tonight's gubernatorials?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Kalbear said: Something Very Bad happened in Nevada. Or, they're just waiting to report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 minute ago, DMC said: Or, they're just waiting to report. Why though? They don't typically report any later than Cal/AZ/WA/etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altherion Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 FiveThirtyEight has an article from November 1st about how the 2020 Senate races would need to shake out to give control to one party or the other given various 2018 results (which have mostly concretized by now). It'll be interesting to see what the divided Congress will do given how polarized everything is. There will almost certainly be more investigations and grandstanding, but will there be something more serious? Government shutdowns? Impeachment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Impmk2 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Why though? They don't typically report any later than Cal/AZ/WA/etc. Heard on one of the steams I'm listening too they weren't reporting while anyone was still in line to vote. EDIT: Here we go: https://twitter.com/NVElect/status/1060039493745487873 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 My lord they haven't called the Nelson/Scott race? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IamMe90 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Why though? They don't typically report any later than Cal/AZ/WA/etc. What would waiting to report possibly do to mitigate anything Possibly Very Bad that happened? Why would they do that and risk potentially exposing themselves to accusations of foul play instead of just reporting as they normally do? The logical conclusion, to my mind, would be that there is another reason that they are reporting later than usual, that has probably to do with logistical concerns or something else non-politically motivated. IDK though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oberonus Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, DMC said: My lord they haven't called the Nelson/Scott race? Wow nelson conceded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paxter Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Dems up to five gubernatorial flips now, with Maine falling to the Dems' Janet Mills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 14 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Okay, here's my tinfoil hat time - Nevada has something like 75% early voting and hasn't reported yet despite that. California is reporting and they usually take WEEKS to finish. Something Very Bad happened in Nevada. Nah, people still in line in Washoe. Once they vote, they will report. Ralston seems to think Clark firewall will be enough unless Indies push hard for Heller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, IamMe90 said: What would waiting to report possibly do to mitigate anything Possibly Very Bad that happened? Why would they do that and risk potentially exposing themselves to accusations of foul play instead of just reporting as they normally do? Again, hacking theory: because they found evidence of tampering, and are not sure about the actual validity of the votes. 5 minutes ago, IamMe90 said: The logical conclusion, to my mind, would be that there is another reason that they are reporting later than usual, that has probably to do with logistical concerns or something else non-politically motivated. IDK though. Maybe - I like the idea that they're not reporting until everyone is out of the lines. Still, seems hinky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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