KingintheNorth4 Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 Warriors in 5 Rockets in 6 Thunder in 7 Nuggets in 6 Bucks in 5 Celtics in 6 Sixers in 5 Raptors in 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proudfeet Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 3 hours ago, DMC said: You asked a lot of questions but I'll just answer this one: Yes. You're right that it's a crapshoot, but tanking is generally a better path to being a true contender than being a middling team. This is arguably true in any of the three American sports I follow (NBA, NFL, MLB), but particularly true with basketball when acquiring elite players is essential to competing. Especially for a team like Orlando that does not often attract star free agents, even with no taxes and Disney. The Raptors are going to beat them and then they have to decide whether resigning Vucevic is worth it - probably not, which means they're gonna suck again anyway. Those are mostly rhetorical questions anyway. I was trying to express how little I think of the top picks. Yes, it's the best chance of going all the way, but I don't think its that much better. You don't get a LeBron every year and even great players like AD can't carry a team reliably. Cleveland didn't even win with LeBron before he signed in free agency. Its admittedly still a better chance than striking on a Giannis or a Kawhi with middle picks, but it shows that its not impossible. I don't think we will ever be able to separate good coaching from raw talent, but I think that having a good coaching staff that has a winning team would help. Maybe. More to the point though, I guess I just can't imagine the need to be the champion since I'm not a fan of any team. Is it really so bad to peak out at where the Blazers and Pacers are at now? To me, it makes as much sense as living super frugally just to throw all my disposable income to the lottery as opposed to trying the stock market while living more comfortably. I might make losses rather than profit and any profit I make would probably be significant less as compared to the lottery, but at least I'm not sacrificing my present for a hypothetical future. I don't mean to ridicule you or anything, but I just can't comprehend the rings at all cost mentality. 20 minutes ago, briantw said: Kings doing Kings things today, firing their coach after their best season in over a decade. 4 minutes ago, Jaime L said: Didn't they also do this with Mike Malone? I remember they had a surprisingly decent start one year, DeMarcus Cousins was finally happy, and they fired the first coach he respected just outta the blue. They were going for top three picks and both coaches were ruining their plans. In all seriousness, what? I think they were projected to finish somewhere in the bottom and they managed a better record than the Lakers. Were they expecting a playoff spot after their early season exceeded expectations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 I feel like the only series that are really in doubt is Blazers/Thunder and Rockets/Jazz. For the other six, I'd say the favorites going 6/6 is virtually assured. Blazers/Thunder will depend on if the Thunder can get their feet back under them. If both teams play at the level they're capable of, the Thunder are better. But I expect the Thunder will probably not be able to put it together and the Blazers advance. The Rockets/Jazz is an unusual matchup stylistically. I haven't seen much of the Jazz this year, but with the Rockets finally getting healthy-ish, you have to give them the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 3 hours ago, Proudfeet said: More to the point though, I guess I just can't imagine the need to be the champion since I'm not a fan of any team. Is it really so bad to peak out at where the Blazers and Pacers are at now? I can only speak for myself, and I prefer to suck for awhile - even a long time - to have a legitimate chance rather than be a perennial 3-6 seed, yes. Although the latter method is probably optimal for ownership in terms of making money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briantw Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, DMC said: Although the latter method is probably optimal for ownership in terms of making money. Depends on the owner. Some are competitive and want to win, which means they'd be willing to tank for a couple of years for a shot at contention later. Some would be content to be an 8 seed every year if it meant them never taking a loss financially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkynJay Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 It is hard to go with anything other than scratch this round; with the exception that I think the Thunder beat the Blazers. I know Utah over Houston is sexy but I only see that if health becomes an issue. I also wonder if the Sixers have more of an Embiid injury problem than they are are saying. I am pleasantly surprised no one has yet jumped on the Spurs over Nuggets bandwagon; the Nuggets are getting a bit more respect than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 14 hours ago, DMC said: No, not really. Vucevic carried that team to the playoffs, and that's nice, but middling borderline playoff team is the last place you wanna be in today's NBA. Especially considering Vucevic is a free agent. Now they have, like, the 17th pick. When they coulda had a shot at the top 3. That's stupid. Normally I would overwhelmingly agree with you, but I think the Magic are the rare exception this year. It's okay to miss the playoffs, but once you get to the +5 year mark it's important to make them to appease your fan base. Furthermore, I don't think anyone on your roster has any playoff experience, so it will be good to see how the young guys react when the spotlight is cranked up. And lastly, this is a very top heavy draft with only three or four players who feel like they will be stars on the next level. The next 15-20 prospects appear to be interchangeable, so I don't think it matters that you'll be picking in the mid teens. The Magic are actually in a really good situation right now. Their biggest contract isn't a great one, but it still will only cost you about $55m over the next three years which is cheap by today's standards. After that you have a lot of young players on rookie deals and a number of expiring contracts. If they can continue to develop Gordon, Bamba and fix Fultz while attracting an All-Star caliber player, you have a chance of being one of the better teams in the East in a year or two, especially when you consider that the top four teams all have closing windows if they screw anything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 4 hours ago, Maithanet said: The Rockets/Jazz is an unusual matchup stylistically. I haven't seen much of the Jazz this year, but with the Rockets finally getting healthy-ish, you have to give them the edge. Agreed, this will be a clash of styles. The Rockets are super up tempo while the Jazz are always among the slowest teams in the league. I think the team that dictates the rhythm will win the series, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if it could be the Jazz. The games will be awful to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 34 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Furthermore, I don't think anyone on your roster has any playoff experience, so it will be good to see how the young guys react when the spotlight is cranked up. Meh, their gonna get their ass kicked by the Raptors, most probably in 4-5 games. I don't know how much "experience" that really lends itself to. 35 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: And lastly, this is a very top heavy draft with only three or four players who feel like they will be stars on the next level. The next 15-20 prospects appear to be interchangeable, so I don't think it matters that you'll be picking in the mid teens. You could say that about most every draft. Hell, you could say that about most every draft in most every sport (although I don't know hockey). It's still much better to be around 8-10 than 15-20. 37 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: After that you have a lot of young players on rookie deals and a number of expiring contracts. If they can continue to develop Gordon, Bamba and fix Fultz while attracting an All-Star caliber player, you have a chance of being one of the better teams in the East in a year or two, especially when you consider that the top four teams all have closing windows if they screw anything up. That's the plan, but there's not much difference between "attracting an All-Star caliber player" and simply re-signing Vucevic. It's really one or the other - they don't have room for both. And, frankly, there's a distinct possibility they do neither. With Richard DeVos now dead those in control of his money..let's just say I'm not confident they give two shits about the Magic. Which means the only way they're going to improve upon the current version of their roster beyond player development is via the draft. And their second-half resurgence put a big damper on that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, DMC said: Meh, their gonna get their ass kicked by the Raptors, most probably in 4-5 games. I don't know how much "experience" that really lends itself to. I doubt it goes past five games, but that's still valuable experience. They'll be better seasoned to handle their next trip to the playoffs. You hear again and again that players feel a noticeable difference in the atmosphere between the regular season and the playoffs. so you might as well expose them to that difference earlier in their careers. Quote You could say that about most every draft. Hell, you could say that about most every draft in most every sport (although I don't know hockey). It's still much better to be around 8-10 than 15-20. Actually, it has no statistical difference if you're looking for All-Stars. I just looked at the past ten drafts (08-17) excluding last year's draft and what I found was that were six All-Stars in both ranges, with the two best players being drafted at 15. Also, good lord the last few drafts have produced a whole lot of nothing. Quote That's the plan, but there's not much difference between "attracting an All-Star caliber player" and simply re-signing Vucevic. It's really one or the other - they don't have room for both. And, frankly, there's a distinct possibility they do neither. With Richard DeVos now dead those in control of his money..let's just say I'm not confident they give two shits about the Magic. Which means the only way they're going to improve upon the current version of their roster beyond player development is via the draft. And their second-half resurgence put a big damper on that possibility. Is it really one or the other? I didn't examine the details that closely, but it looked like you had space to resign him and recruit a FA worth close to the lower max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted April 11, 2019 Share Posted April 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: You hear again and again that players feel a noticeable difference in the atmosphere between the regular season and the playoffs. so you might as well expose them to that difference earlier in their careers. Again, I don't think there's much of a difference between getting your ass kicked in the first round and regular season games. 8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Actually, it has no statistical difference if you're looking for All-Stars. I just looked at the past ten drafts (08-17) excluding last year's draft and what I found was that were six All-Stars in both ranges, with the two best players being drafted at 15. That's not a statistical correlation, or even close to it. The onus is on you do demonstrate. I suspect 8-10 picks have produced considerably more than 15-20 picks, as long as you choose a long enough timeframe. You looking at the past ten drafts and drawing a conclusion isn't going to change that. 11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Is it really one or the other? I didn't examine the details that closely, but it looked like you had space to resign him and recruit a FA worth close to the lower max. Just re-checked hoopshype, which has been my go-to for over a decade, and no, if they re-sign Vucevic there's not enough room for anyone close to that level. After next year, yeah maybe, but that's dependent on team options and who knows what will happen in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proudfeet Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 5 hours ago, DMC said: I can only speak for myself, and I prefer to suck for awhile - even a long time - to have a legitimate chance rather than be a perennial 3-6 seed, yes. Although the latter method is probably optimal for ownership in terms of making money. Right, thanks. I suspect that I'm in the minority on this issue. 2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said: Also, good lord the last few drafts have produced a whole lot of nothing. Well, you don't get 10 year all stars every year. Give them some time. Besides, look at men's tennis. The older guys just aren't falling off as quickly nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 14 hours ago, DMC said: Again, I don't think there's much of a difference between getting your ass kicked in the first round and regular season games. I just going off of what basically every athlete I’ve ever heard say. You have to suffer before you succeed, unless you’re Golden State. Quote That's not a statistical correlation, or even close to it. The onus is on you do demonstrate. I suspect 8-10 picks have produced considerably more than 15-20 picks, as long as you choose a long enough timeframe. You looking at the past ten drafts and drawing a conclusion isn't going to change that. It was just a quick way of showing there wasn’t a huge difference at the top end. I’m sure if we calculated the total PER or +/- the 8-10’s would look better, but I’d also guess the flame out rate is roughly the same. Also, the reason why you should use the shorter window is because of how much the game has changed recently. Both in style and in the quality of depth. If your argument is that the Magic should have tanked instead of getting a low playoff seed, then sure, I get it. But if the difference is between getting a late lottery pick and getting into the playoffs, then I say go for the latter. The benefits outweigh the costs. Quote Just re-checked hoopshype, which has been my go-to for over a decade, and no, if they re-sign Vucevic there's not enough room for anyone close to that level. After next year, yeah maybe, but that's dependent on team options and who knows what will happen in the meantime. My bad, I meant the 2020 offseason, not this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briantw Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 3 hours ago, briantw said: I don't know if I should scream, laugh, cry or all of the above. The part that hurts is we were legitimately the fourth or fifth best team in the league last year before he got hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 Okay, total playoff predictions. I'll have to figure out how to archive this post so I can point back to it later. Conference Quarterfinals WC Warriors over Clippers in 4 Rockets over Jazz in 6 Thunder over Blazers in 6 Nuggets over Spurs in 5 EC Bucks over Pistons in 4 Celtics over Pacers in 5 Sixers over Nets in 5 (All Sixers picks assume Embiid is okay.) Raptors over Magic in 5 Conference Semifinals WC Warriors over Rockets in 7 Thunder over Nuggets in 6 EC Bucks over Celtics in 5 Sixers over Raptors in 6 Conference Finals Warriors over Thunder in 7 Bucks over Sixers in 6 NBA Finals Bucks over Warriors in 6 Giannis wins Finals MVP averaging 33/14/8 I serious don't think any of the Warriors can guard him. Green is too small and Boogie is too weak. Assuming their injured players come back by the second round, I expect a shocking upset. If they don't come back then the Warriors will win. The first round will likely be a snoozer, but all the second round matches and beyond look like a blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briantw Posted April 12, 2019 Share Posted April 12, 2019 23 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: I don't know if I should scream, laugh, cry or all of the above. The part that hurts is we were legitimately the fourth or fifth best team in the league last year before he got hurt. Best part: "Is that Andrew's heart?!?" "Nah, too big." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingintheNorth4 Posted April 13, 2019 Share Posted April 13, 2019 Playoff Kyle Lowry strikes again. 0 points on 0 for 7 shooting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proudfeet Posted April 14, 2019 Share Posted April 14, 2019 The Kings have hired Luke Walton. That was fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relic Posted April 14, 2019 Author Share Posted April 14, 2019 13 hours ago, KingintheNorth4 said: Playoff Kyle Lowry strikes again. 0 points on 0 for 7 shooting. just....atrocious. Not to mention he let DJ Augestine look like a superstar.... 3 teams lost homecourt advantage in Day 1 of the playoffs. Pretty exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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