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Black Crow

Heresy 227 and the Great Turtle

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14 hours ago, JNR said:

Bingo.  That, and they did pass his test question of serious readership by identifying Jon's mother, and apparently there was generally a great conversation that went on for hours on that occasion.  He probably figured he could just shore up whatever conceptual shortfalls they had as the show went along.

And they certainly didn't admit to GRRM at that time that they didn't know what they were doing.  They can admit it now because the show is done, the millions of dollars are banked, the Netflix deal is signed, etc., and they can claim they learned so much that they're competent now, etc.

But are they?  The primary lesson of GOT is that in the second half of the show's run, when they supposedly had learned stuff, they were incompetent storytellers.   So much so that millions of fans wanted a complete remake. 

One day they may get it, too, based on the actual books. Reboots aren't going out of fashion any time soon.

One thing I am hoping for is a show strictly based on the books once he is finished. I mean there's good odds he won't be done for at least 10 years anyway. That would give plenty of time between shows.

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Besides that I'm dying not only read TWOW, but to see how well fan theories predicted what would happen and what new fan theories will come from it.

I'm sure AFFC changed fan theories. I know ADWD did, Heresy was started only 4 months after it's release.

Edited by Lord Aegon The Compromiser

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Much as I dissed F&B as a book I think a decent TV show could be made of it.The first essential is that they hire a good team of writers.As in a team with a background in period/fantasy.Just one or two writers won't work as history has shown.

I too am disappointed Bloodmoon has been canned.It could have addressed issues of value to Heresy types.I don't know if she can get another tv company interested.If not we may get to see the pilot or screenplay eventually.

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1 hour ago, redriver said:

Much as I dissed F&B as a book I think a decent TV show could be made of it.The first essential is that they hire a good team of writers.As in a team with a background in period/fantasy.Just one or two writers won't work as history has shown.

I too am disappointed Bloodmoon has been canned.It could have addressed issues of value to Heresy types.I don't know if she can get another tv company interested.If not we may get to see the pilot or screenplay eventually.

If she reworks it into something better, maybe Amazon will pick it up. Assuming HBO doesn't have exclusive rights to all things ASOIAF.

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3 hours ago, redriver said:

The first essential is that they hire a good team of writers.As in a team with a background in period/fantasy.

I also think it would be important to try much harder to stick to GRRM's design.  This is not just out of loyalty to the guy; it's because he made his choices in logical ways, to achieve logical goals. 

If you try to tinker with basic structural things (like introducing Night King as a dark lord), you create basic structural problems (like ending the entire Long Night in five seconds, just because somebody stabs him).  And the fanbase rolls its eyes and says "Hollywood bullshit." And the fanbase is right.

It would probably be much harder than adapting canon, too... because as I understand it, F&B is not written like canon, in POV chapters with literal dialogue. 

So the team will have to fill in far more blanks, and if they go to GRRM and ask for info that's not already public (as D&D did), they are likely to get stonewalled or thrown table scraps (see also: D&D).

1 hour ago, Lord Aegon The Compromiser said:

Assuming HBO doesn't have exclusive rights to all things ASOIAF.

I think they do.  But it's still always possible there could be a reboot of either GOT or the Long Night, done properly.

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Sorry to say, the prequels probably wouldn't be any good anyway. 

It's pretty striking that despite the worldwide momentum created by GOT, and all the money sitting on the table, HBO took one look at Bloodmoon, held its nose, and flushed the toilet.

When you think about what happened with LOTR, you can see how things may wind up with ASOIAF, I suppose.

Tolkien never saw a good Hollywood rendition.  There was no good rendition until Peter Jackson, who of course had the entire LOTR canon to work from, as well as extensive notes available on its creation as published by Christopher Tolkien.

HBO has no such foundation to build on top of, and the talent it hired, though impressive in some areas, did not include smart analysts capable of figuring out where GRRM is going, or solving any of his puzzles, or (really) even recognizing there are puzzles to be solved.

If the series is never finished, which looks like a coinflip to me, I hope we at least get a look at the notes -- what GRRM has called a mountain of index cards. 

I'd actually pay to read a book of that -- or even better, a straight-up encyclopedia of ASOIAF that includes info GRRM hid from us -- whereas I am not sure I will ever bother to watch even one episode of House of The Dragon. I expect it to be pretty, and expensive, and bad.

Edited by JNR

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I'm sure HBO took into consideration the make-up of the GOT fan base and what kind of story would appeal to them best: one that focused on the Targaryens - which plays into the R+L=J theory, or one that has nothing to do with Targaryens. I mean the mind set of a huge section of the fan base is only interested in R+L=J and won't even venture away from that theory. And their distraction with the subject keeps them disinterested in other aspects of the story, unless it circles back to Jon's presumed Targaryen heritage.

There have been multiple times where I'll take note of an interesting topic and begin to read the OP only to find that it's predicated or bolstered by some connection to Jon or Rhaegar. Its ridiculous really. Case in point - I found this OP to be well written and interesting. The entire exercise is to provide evidence that Shadrich the Mad Mouse is Howland by breaking down the symbolism behind his sigil, which is of a white mouse with red eyes.

The theory draws connections to House Whent asserting that a bat is just a flying mouse, and to Bloodraven, because the mouse is white with red eyes. This is somehow meant to be proof of loyalties and that Shadrich would never be on any side opposed to Rhaegar. How Rhaegar is even relevant at this point is beyond me, not to mention how confusing that idea is when contrasted against what Shadrich is really doing: hunting for Sansa so that he can collect a gold reward from Varys. If Shadrich is Howland, what does he plan to do with Sansa once he has her? Does he hope to save her from Rhaegar's enemies??? Was't Howland on the rebel side opposing Rhaegar? This is just one example of how an interesting topic got derailed by straining to make connections to Rhaegar. 

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50 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

the mind set of a huge section of the fan base is only interested in R+L=J and won't even venture away from that theory. And their distraction with the subject keeps them disinterested in other aspects of the story, unless it circles back to Jon's presumed Targaryen heritage.

That's certainly true of book fans, like us. As we've all seen in countless threads, like the one you mention.

But show-only fans barely even know Rhaegar's name... because he was an afterthought on the show. Whole seasons literally went by in which he was never mentioned. 

To show fans, the big mystery was always "Who will wind up on the Iron Throne?" They thought the name of the show (Game of Thrones) was what the story was all about.  And that's why the final ruler of Westeros was always the #1 subject for online betting.

I doubt we'll ever know for sure why HBO dropped Bloodmoon. But they certainly believed in the appeal of a non-Targ show about the Long Night, because they sank a reported $38 million (thirty million pounds sterling) into it... and yet when they saw it, they shitcanned the whole thing, never mind the worldwide brand and huge pre-built fanbase.  They did that because they expected it to lose money.

Also, it just occurred to me that if HBO wanted Targs, it could have gotten them, and never mind the canon.

If they had said "We love it but we need you to add Targs," I'm pretty sure Jane Goldman would have asked how many.

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Heresy subscribers are a tiny fraction of HBO viewers.   To the other 99.99%, they don't care if GRRM's puzzles are solved the same way.   The show is a drama/fantasy that stands alone as entertaining for the majority of viewers.   I still think the final two seasons felt flat, mostly from trying to include too much material in the first few seasons and then cutting it back too far.   But even among book readers, only a few people care if Jon's parents are the same, and if all the implications of who they are are the same.

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What is the average amount of money HBO spends on a pilot? A pilot is a test to gauge interest and success. Here are some averages regarding pilots. The numbers were posted with regard to the three main television stations, but they're probably pretty typical for HBO too:

500: The average number of pitches heard by network and studio execs each summer

70: The average number of pilot scripts ordered each fall

20: The average number of pilot episodes ordered each January

5 – 12: The average number of series each network orders each May

HBO actually considered 5 GOT spin-offs, so for one of them to move forward seems to be an average success rate. You also have to consider how much room in scheduling does HBO have to add new shows? Will House of Dragons automatically inherit GOT's Sunday 8pm central time slot?

 

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2 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

To the other 99.99%, they don't care if GRRM's puzzles are solved the same way. 

Recall the online petition with millions of signatures calling for a total remake.

Those millions of people didn't know what the real story was... they didn't know what GRRM's revelations were... but they could still see what D&D did was bullshit.   They knew the show went to hell when it ran out of canon, even if they had never even read the canon.

How is that possible? Well, it's like knowing a number must be between 1 and 100, and then being told the answer is K. 

Even in Heresy, where there is no stock theory nor any common consensus, we virtually all agree D&D got it wrong.

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

HBO actually considered 5 GOT spin-offs, so for one of them to move forward seems to be an average success rate.

Most of the struggle for any new show is making a splash and building up a loyal fanbase.

Well, that is a totally solved problem for GOT prequels.  The number of show pitches HBO gets with a comparable brand/fanbase to these prequels, thanks to the huge impact of GOT, is zero.

So Goldman could have had her hands full of work for the next five years, minimum, if she had just delivered a straight-up retelling of the Long Night based on canon... which is nearly identical to the version described in the History features on the Blu-rays.  It could easily have been done, and done well.

Whatever she ponied up, it sure wasn't that.  It was something so clearly problematic, HBO pulled the plug and wrote off $38 million as a dead loss. Compare to the $10 million they spent on the GOT pilot, which had no comparable initial momentum, and you see the magnitude of the decision.

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I think that there's going to be a fairly fundamental problem with the Targaryen series in the potential time-span. In his original synopsis for ASOIF said that it was going to be a generational thing; following the children of Winterfell as they grew up and shaped or were shaped by the world around them. While the Mummers may have failed spectacularly they did indeed follow this basic premise and casualties aside the major characters in the last episode were met in the first.

Is House of the Dragon going to be similarly confined but set 200 years before AGoT or is it going to be a chronicle of House targaryen through the ages?

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3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I think that there's going to be a fairly fundamental problem with the Targaryen series in the potential time-span. In his original synopsis for ASOIF said that it was going to be a generational thing; following the children of Winterfell as they grew up and shaped or were shaped by the world around them. While the Mummers may have failed spectacularly they did indeed follow this basic premise and casualties aside the major characters in the last episode were met in the first.

Is House of the Dragon going to be similarly confined but set 200 years before AGoT or is it going to be a chronicle of House targaryen through the ages?

I imagine a storyline with a central cast that follows a specific time period - perhaps similar to The Princess and the Queen.

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4 hours ago, JNR said:

Recall the online petition with millions of signatures calling for a total remake.

Those millions of people didn't know what the real story was... they didn't know what GRRM's revelations were... but they could still see what D&D did was bullshit.   They knew the show went to hell when it ran out of canon, even if they had never even read the canon.

How is that possible? Well, it's like knowing a number must be between 1 and 100, and then being told the answer is K. 

Even in Heresy, where there is no stock theory nor any common consensus, we virtually all agree D&D got it wrong.

Most of the struggle for any new show is making a splash and building up a loyal fanbase.

Well, that is a totally solved problem for GOT prequels.  The number of show pitches HBO gets with a comparable brand/fanbase to these prequels, thanks to the huge impact of GOT, is zero.

So Goldman could have had her hands full of work for the next five years, minimum, if she had just delivered a straight-up retelling of the Long Night based on canon... which is nearly identical to the version described in the History features on the Blu-rays.  It could easily have been done, and done well.

Whatever she ponied up, it sure wasn't that.  It was something so clearly problematic, HBO pulled the plug and wrote off $38 million as a dead loss. Compare to the $10 million they spent on the GOT pilot, which had no comparable initial momentum, and you see the magnitude of the decision.

GRRM posted more excited updates about The Long Night (Bloodmoon) than any of the other pilots. Clearly he was invested in the kind of story that was being proposed.

Edited by Feather Crystal

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On 11/4/2019 at 7:17 AM, JNR said:

I also think it would be important to try much harder to stick to GRRM's design.  This is not just out of loyalty to the guy; it's because he made his choices in logical ways, to achieve logical goals. 

If you try to tinker with basic structural things (like introducing Night King as a dark lord), you create basic structural problems (like ending the entire Long Night in five seconds, just because somebody stabs him).  And the fanbase rolls its eyes and says "Hollywood bullshit." And the fanbase is right.

It would probably be much harder than adapting canon, too... because as I understand it, F&B is not written like canon, in POV chapters with literal dialogue. 

So the team will have to fill in far more blanks, and if they go to GRRM and ask for info that's not already public (as D&D did), they are likely to get stonewalled or thrown table scraps (see also: D&D).

I think they do.  But it's still always possible there could be a reboot of either GOT or the Long Night, done properly.

Absolutely either could be rebooted properly while still on HBO. It's really all about getting the correct people to handle it. 

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15 hours ago, JNR said:

That's certainly true of book fans, like us. As we've all seen in countless threads, like the one you mention.

But show-only fans barely even know Rhaegar's name... because he was an afterthought on the show. Whole seasons literally went by in which he was never mentioned. 

To show fans, the big mystery was always "Who will wind up on the Iron Throne?" They thought the name of the show (Game of Thrones) was what the story was all about.  And that's why the final ruler of Westeros was always the #1 subject for online betting.

I doubt we'll ever know for sure why HBO dropped Bloodmoon. But they certainly believed in the appeal of a non-Targ show about the Long Night, because they sank a reported $38 million (thirty million pounds sterling) into it... and yet when they saw it, they shitcanned the whole thing, never mind the worldwide brand and huge pre-built fanbase.  They did that because they expected it to lose money.

Also, it just occurred to me that if HBO wanted Targs, it could have gotten them, and never mind the canon.

If they had said "We love it but we need you to add Targs," I'm pretty sure Jane Goldman would have asked how many.

Regardless of any rumors of its contents, IMO Bloodmoon must have been an absolute dumpster fire for HBO to walk away from it at a $38mil (pounds sterling) loss without even trying to rewrite and shoot a 2nd pilot.

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14 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

What is the average amount of money HBO spends on a pilot? A pilot is a test to gauge interest and success. Here are some averages regarding pilots. The numbers were posted with regard to the three main television stations, but they're probably pretty typical for HBO too:

500: The average number of pitches heard by network and studio execs each summer

70: The average number of pilot scripts ordered each fall

20: The average number of pilot episodes ordered each January

5 – 12: The average number of series each network orders each May

HBO actually considered 5 GOT spin-offs, so for one of them to move forward seems to be an average success rate. You also have to consider how much room in scheduling does HBO have to add new shows? Will House of Dragons automatically inherit GOT's Sunday 8pm central time slot?

 

IMO HBO is waiting to see how well House of The Dragon does before greenlighting any other GOT prequels. This is directly the fault of how god awful GOT ended. If it ended well I imagine they would have greenlit 2-3 prequels to series without a 2nd thought.

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12 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I think that there's going to be a fairly fundamental problem with the Targaryen series in the potential time-span. In his original synopsis for ASOIF said that it was going to be a generational thing; following the children of Winterfell as they grew up and shaped or were shaped by the world around them. While the Mummers may have failed spectacularly they did indeed follow this basic premise and casualties aside the major characters in the last episode were met in the first.

Is House of the Dragon going to be similarly confined but set 200 years before AGoT or is it going to be a chronicle of House targaryen through the ages?

I thought it was said that it will lead up to the original Dance of the Dragons. It would be a major mistake to exclude it though.

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