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Alyn Oakenfist

TWOW in July 2020 seems ever more likely

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8 minutes ago, divica said:

Are we talking about the guy that only noticed there couldn t be a time jump after he wrote God knows how many pages and didn t know what to do with the story after that? 

 

It doesn t matter what grrm plans are. When he starts writing is when he notices if they are feasible... 

And if the story has any similarity to the show not even 8 books are enough. Maybe not even 9... And most of us will die before so many asoiaf book are released... 

I hear what you and Cas Stark are saying, I really do. It's hard to trust him when he changes his mind and plans often, but I do believe that when faced with his own mortality George is not going to let this ending slip through his fingers unless something unexpected and awful happens. It's his life's work and legacy. If he were a younger man I would definitely agree with you, however I think he will wrap it up in seven because he is totally capable of doing so and most likely feels he has to. Every story line in asoiaf is about to hit the fan. We saw how quickly he dealt with Ned, Renly, Tywin, Cat, Robb, and Quentyn. One moment they are key/interesting players and the next they are food for crows. He will have plenty of twists and ways to take out many characters in the next two books and a lot of people here are probably not going to like how it happens or feel like there was more to tell when really it was just their time to go. And it's okay to feel that way when the time comes. We have all invested years (decades for some) into this story. 

I'm aware that many vocal members in this group believe it will take more than seven books and anything less will be a travesty similar to the show, and mayhaps I'm in the minority on this opinion, but nevertheless I truly feel like he knows he has to get it done in seven or it wont get done by him at all, aside from outline submitted to his fans on his death bed.  

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2 hours ago, Lord Daedrunk said:

I see people here all the time saying that there is no way he can finish in seven books and that it at least has to be eight. I think he'll finish in seven.

I also believe he can finish in 7 books if he wants. And I believe he tremendously wants to finish in 7. There are plenty of arcs, yes. But some will join, others may die quickly meeting the Others or Dany. Plenty of stuff was to justify why people are not ready or dead bent on their idea of conquest or revenge. One book for Dany to return, fAegon to control the 7K or the south at least. Maybe a Stark in the North. Then the last book, Dany conquest while the Others are coming down. Don't know how it will finish. But GRRM battles didn't take many pages so far. Don't think it will go better than the Fist of the First Men. This was the NW and Stannis showed how good the Southron are in winter. GRRM is more in talking and plotting. There could be some room left for a taste (dream) of the aftermath.

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12 hours ago, Werthead said:

Yes. He's doing it now with the comic book adaptation (which is why he knows a lot of stuff already about the endgame that no-one else knows). But it's a moot point as long as GRRM is on the Christopher Tolkien side of the idea. It was just an observation that if GRRM changed his mind, I don't see anyone else being on the list of people he'd be happy to handle it other than Daniel.

Then let us hope George finishes ASOIAF so Abraham can write the sequel series.

What is the Christopher Tolkien side of the idea?

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Literally GRRM's entire track record with ASOIAF flies in the face of the idea he can finish in 2 more books. He has blown every page count he ever set for himself. 

When George was writing ADWD he had 3 separate books in mind. What he wanted to be the Dance content, the Winds content and Dream content. Well, an Arya and a Sansa chapter were both bumped from Dance to Winds. As was the Battle of Ice and Battle of Fire. So now he is saying he will fit the last few hundred pages of Dance content and all of TWOW and ADOS content into two books? There's just zero reason to believe him. He has more than two books of content left to fit into two books. Not to mention that every part of ASOIAF has expanded when he wrote it and it's easy to see how what he thought would be 1500 MS pages for each could end up being 2000-2500 MS pages once written. 

I still wonder how many MS pages he had in 2018 if his publishers wanted him to split it. Does that mean he had 2500+ MS pages at the time? Or 1500-ish but that only covered half the characters? If he had so much in 2018 then what is keeping him from releasing 1500 MS pages as Winds now? 

At one time George was confident he'd deliver Winds ahead of season 5 or 6 of the show. Do you think he had a different Winds he was writing to beat the show, not something he was 100% happy with, and scrapped it completely once he realized the show would pass him? Because 5 years is an awfully long time to be in the finishing stages of a novel. 

Is he spending more time trying to fit the story into two books than it would have taken to write three books? He was confident he'd finish in 2015, his publishers wanted him to split in 2018, he's been isolated in his finishing cabin for like 6 months. I just don't understand how he hasn't produced 1500 MS paged of publishable material yet. 

It would make more sense if TWOW grew to 3000 MS pages and he's polishing that into two books. 

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5 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Then let us hope George finishes ASOIAF so Abraham can write the sequel series.

What is the Christopher Tolkien side of the idea?

Publishing the notes, background material and outlines, as Christopher Tolkien did for his father in the History of Middle-earth series.

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It would make more sense if TWOW grew to 3000 MS pages and he's polishing that into two books. 

I'm not sure about 3,000 MS pages, but yes, TWoW being published in two volumes I think is increasingly possible.

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Is he spending more time trying to fit the story into two books than it would have taken to write three books?

This may very well be part of the problem. After he finished ADWD, he estimated that he had written between twice and three times as much material in deleted scenes, re-edited chapters and total rewrites than appeared in the book (i.e. to get to the final 420,000 word/1500 manuscript pages of ADWD, he wrote close to 1 million words and 4,000 manuscript pages).

George's frequent claim that he is a very slow writer is only true because he means he long it takes him to sometimes produce final material he is happy with, not actually producing material at all, where he's actually average-to-fast. A big problem is that George's opinion of the quality of the material he writes very quickly - like A Storm of Swords, which was written from start to finish in about two years and he wanted to do more editing on but had to get it out - is at extreme variance with how happy fans are with that material (ASoS, by general consensus, being better-received than AFFC and ADWD).

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If he really doesn’t announce a release date for TWOW at the end of July, then I hope that at least we’ll get one more sample chapter so we have at least something to talk about even if it’s a breadcrumb and not the whole loaf.

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On 6/16/2020 at 5:16 AM, Werthead said:

Publishing the notes, background material and outlines, as Christopher Tolkien did for his father in the History of Middle-earth series.

I'm not sure about 3,000 MS pages, but yes, TWoW being published in two volumes I think is increasingly possible.

This may very well be part of the problem. After he finished ADWD, he estimated that he had written between twice and three times as much material in deleted scenes, re-edited chapters and total rewrites than appeared in the book (i.e. to get to the final 420,000 word/1500 manuscript pages of ADWD, he wrote close to 1 million words and 4,000 manuscript pages).

George's frequent claim that he is a very slow writer is only true because he means he long it takes him to sometimes produce final material he is happy with, not actually producing material at all, where he's actually average-to-fast. A big problem is that George's opinion of the quality of the material he writes very quickly - like A Storm of Swords, which was written from start to finish in about two years and he wanted to do more editing on but had to get it out - is at extreme variance with how happy fans are with that material (ASoS, by general consensus, being better-received than AFFC and ADWD).

ASOS is hands down the best book I ever read in any genre. George deserved the Hugo over JK, beyond a shadow of a doubt. I think this actually represents a downturn for GRRM. After losing the Hugo, his own demand on the quality of his writing has increased drastically. Now he constantly rewrites and only publishes when he has to. And he can definitely afford to never publish TWOW no matter how upset his publishers get. So I hope he is beyond satisfied with TWOW very soon.

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15 hours ago, Brandon Ice-Eyes V1 said:

If he really doesn’t announce a release date for TWOW at the end of July, then I hope that at least we’ll get one more sample chapter so we have at least something to talk about even if it’s a breadcrumb and not the whole loaf.

I know they aren't finalized chapters, but he's already released like 1/7th-1/8th of TWOW. I'd rather not get anymore sample chapters.

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13 hours ago, Mithras said:

We should have Asha I if we are not getting a date in July. That chapter should have been in ADwD.

If that is the theorized Theon sacrifice chapter, then Asha I would also be my pick if he does release another sample chapter.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

If that is the theorized Theon sacrifice chapter, then Asha I would also be my pick if he does release another sample chapter.

There is no way that Theon be sacrified or dies so soon. His storyline will be useless, he crossed a living hell only to rise stronger and harder. My guess he will hear Bran in a weirwood and learns something to save his life. However if he stays alive one of the sibling will be useless as a POV so Asha could be the one to bit the dust, she has blood king too. I am not sure Martin will release this chapter and spoiling something important for one of the Greyjoy.

Edited by mgreyjoy69

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On 6/19/2020 at 2:09 PM, mgreyjoy69 said:

There is no way that Theon be sacrified or dies so soon.

Bran is certainly beyond petty things like wanting Theon dead. In fact Theon saved Bran by chasing him of Winterfell before the RW. And we don't know the Old Gods or BR need sacrificing, even if it was for Jon. I believe Bran will stay in the cave. Theon will be his presence, his voice, south of the Wall.

Between Theon and Asha my guess is there is one too many. And IMO Theon is better suited to lead the IB in the world after the LN. Asha is still a bully like Victarion. I expect her to die somewhere along the way.

On 6/19/2020 at 12:10 PM, QhorinQuarterhand said:

I know they aren't finalized chapters, but he's already released like 1/7th-1/8th of TWOW. I'd rather not get anymore sample chapters.

Half the released chapters are too short to be complete. But it's already too much. Each one reduces the experience of reading TWOW for the 1st time.

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On 6/16/2020 at 9:31 AM, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Literally GRRM's entire track record with ASOIAF flies in the face of the idea he can finish in 2 more books. He has blown every page count he ever set for himself. 

I've come to terms with the very likely scenario that we won't get a proper ending to the books. I just want Winds at this point.

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I'm starting to get a little concerned with his recent blogging being very non-ASOIAF related. Even if he was joking with that New Zealand comment last year (which he obviously was to some extent), he should know better by now than to give his fans that big of a tease. It's not July yet, though, so there are still a couple of weeks to go.

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3 hours ago, AlienCarnivore said:

I'm starting to get a little concerned with his recent blogging being very non-ASOIAF related. Even if he was joking with that New Zealand comment last year (which he obviously was to some extent), he should know better by now than to give his fans that big of a tease. It's not July yet, though, so there are still a couple of weeks to go.

In fairness he can use the disruption of Covid 19 as an excuse. Couldn't get a technician to fix Word Star or Dos programme on his Commodore 386 PC!!

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51 minutes ago, Ser Uncle P said:

In fairness he can use the disruption of Covid 19 as an excuse. Couldn't get a technician to fix Word Star or Dos programme on his Commodore 386 PC!!

"The dog ate my homework! :("

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11 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I've come to terms with the very likely scenario that we won't get a proper ending to the books. I just want Winds at this point.

I at least want Winds. I personally think we get at least 7 books, but that won't be the end. 

At least Winds will shake up the fandom and give us a few years worth of new theories to argue over. 

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Posted (edited)
19 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

I at least want Winds. I personally think we get at least 7 books, but that won't be the end.

If after Winds he is still far from the end and still bogged in too many threads. I don't think we will see another book. If the path is clearer (for him) to the end, we may have the 7th and last in a not too long time. But it was what we were saying after ADwD and the Meereen's knot... The hard part is behind us:(

On 6/21/2020 at 4:28 PM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I've come to terms with the very likely scenario that we won't get a proper ending to the books. I just want Winds at this point.

No me. I've difficulties with never knowing the end of the story. At this point, I could do with someone, GRRM or his assistants, telling the gist of the story.

Edited by BalerionTheCat

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On 6/22/2020 at 12:33 AM, Ser Uncle P said:

In fairness he can use the disruption of Covid 19 as an excuse. Couldn't get a technician to fix Word Star or Dos programme on his Commodore 386 PC!!

Huh to me the covid situation was actually a reason for him to sit down and write... basically 2-3 months of isolation - what is better condition for writing and creative work?

If he dosnt publish the book this year, he is never doing it.

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