NFL Playoffs: Hindsight Is 20/20 For Bad Coaching Decisions

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 hours ago, Triskele said:

It's probably naive on my part to overlook how important coach and environment is to a young QB, but I think that Mahomes is so good that his worst case scenario would still be solid and maybe just not quite as dominant as he's been with the big red coach in KC.  

Kind in mind, Rodgers would have looked very different if he was drafted elsewhere. I read somewhere that it took the Packers nearly three years to rework his throwing motion. He would never have gotten that chance if he was thrust into the starting lineup. 

3 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Reid is such a beloved guy, impossible not to root for.

I am rooting to see his walrus moustache dripping with bitter tears to such a saturation point it has to be shaved off in case it drowns him in his pill-and-alcohol induced lonely sleep in some dingy hotel room he’s run to after telling his family he blames them for his failures and never wants to see their ridiculous free-loading faces that to him will from this day forth have a vaguely golden hue that makes him nauseous and depressed. 

Does that make me a bad person?

One of his sons died from a drug overdose. 

2 hours ago, DMC said:

Yeah, this.  I thought it was completely ridiculous - at the time - that Trubisky was being considered even in the same league as Watson - who thoroughly proved himself at the highest level of college football.  To a lesser extent, I thought it was completely ridiculous Jackson dropped as far as he did based on his performance, skills, and talent.  But Mahomes?  Eh, I'd barely heard of him until he shot up the boards as a pre-draft wonder.  Was honestly surprised the Chiefs took him as early as he did.  That seemed much more a compliment to the Chiefs' talent evaluation than an indictment on the rest of the league's.

100% agree. You can forgive teams for passing on Mahomes. No one could have predicted he'd turn into what he is based on his college tape? But Watson? I argued he should have been the obvious number one pick if you needed a QB. He shredded Alabama in back to back championship games. That's all I needed to see.  

[DMC]

Random question:  Can anyone direct me to the Niners snap counts from yesterday?  They aren't posted on the blog I frequent (niners nation) yet, and when googling "niners snap counts" I get the packers, and the chiefs, from yesterday, but not the niners.  Frustration rising..

[Altherion]

4 hours ago, James Arryn said:

Reid is such a beloved guy, impossible not to root for.

I am rooting to see his walrus moustache dripping with bitter tears to such a saturation point it has to be shaved off in case it drowns him in his pill-and-alcohol induced lonely sleep in some dingy hotel room he’s run to after telling his family he blames them for his failures and never wants to see their ridiculous free-loading faces that to him will from this day forth have a vaguely golden hue that makes him nauseous and depressed. 

Does that make me a bad person?

Yes.

I have no idea which team will win -- neither of them was seriously tested in the playoffs and both were very good in the regular season. However, I hope the Chiefs win, not just for Reid, but for Kansas City (which hasn't won a championship in half a century).

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, Altherion said:

Yes.

I have no idea which team will win -- neither of them was seriously tested in the playoffs and both were very good in the regular season. However, I hope the Chiefs win, not just for Reid, but for Kansas City (which hasn't won a championship in half a century).

You just don't want another team to tie the Owls record.

 

On the more serious side, Brady sounds like he's either retiring or leaving. Do Pats fans even want him back at this point, emotions and all? He's very clearly washed. 

[Jaime L]

6 hours ago, Triskele said:

But did people punish Mahomes in evaluation because he was from the Texas Tech stats factory?  I think maybe.  

Yeah I mean his measuables, athleticism and rocket arm got him in the first round in a way Graham Harrell or Kliff Kingsbury could only dream. But I don't recall anyone thinking of him as a surething. He was played up as a project, one that's only a no-brainer for a team who already had as solid starting QB. I don't know if everyone was just underrating his intangibles and ability to read a defense or if the Chiefs were the one team who saw it all along

Same thing happened to an even greater extent with Rodgers. If the Packers knew what they were getting they'd have traded up. At least the Chiefs actually did.

Chiefs have been one of the most conservative teams for as long as I've been watching football. It'd be fitting if they finally won a Superbowl by being big time aggressive across the board: in going and getting Mahomes, in moving on from Alex Smith after a good season, and then finally in how they've unleashed him. 

[BigFatCoward]

6 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

You just don't want another team to tie the Owls record.

 

On the more serious side, Brady sounds like he's either retiring or leaving. Do Pats fans even want him back at this point, emotions and all? He's very clearly washed. 

 

Even though he is clearly way past his sell by date, is there anyone else out there that is even halfway good they could get for the salary they pay him?  

BB is old, does he want a full rebuild, has he got the time or patience to start with a new project?

[Maithanet]

In many ways this SB matchup is like a Rorschach test of your own football philosophy. 

Old School Niners - This argument is that when a great defense plays a great offense, usually the defense wins.  Think Patriots-Falcons, Seahawks-Broncos, Raiders-Bucs, Giants-Patriots, Giants-Bills, all the way back to SB one with Packers-Chiefs.  The Niners have a great defense, can really run the ball, and are capable of winning a shootout if they have to.  In many respects the Niners are like a better version of the Titans (much better defense, more varied offensive attack).  The Chiefs defense doesn't match up with SF very well, and SF will probably dominate time of possession.  The Niners defense doesn't even need to be great, they just need to be pretty good and they're very likely to win. 

New School Chiefs - The NFL has changed.  You can cite all those defensive teams that shut down great offenses, but that doesn't really matter because a combination of rules changes and new strategies mean that the balance of power has shifted.  Analytics websites like football outsiders and 538 favor the Chiefs over the Niners.  The Chiefs combination of downfield speed and diverse weapons is nothing like the Niners have seen, even when they've played very good offenses like NO and BAL.  The Chiefs defense is playing better and better, and just shut down Derrick Henry.  If they can stack the box and make this a shootout between Handsome Jimmy and Mahomes, it's pretty obvious who's gonna win that one. 

[Jace, Extat]

The Chiefs defense blows and the 49'ers offense is not a one-man-band like the Titans. If the Chiefs fall behind by two scores in the first quarter again, the 49'ers will not be, uh... punting. 

I think it's a tossup, because the Chiefs can score on every possession against any defense. But the 49'ers have a much stronger roster from top to bottom and may only need one or two stops in the entire game to keep basic arithmetic on their side. There's a very, very, real possibility that the Super Bowl goes exactly like the NFC Championship game did. It wouldn't have mattered if they played another 1,000 quarters after the first fifteen minutes of that game, Green Bay was never going to be able to catch up to the 49'ers because they just couldn't stop that offense.                                                        

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

 

Even though he is clearly way past his sell by date, is there anyone else out there that is even halfway good they could get for the salary they pay him?  

BB is old, does he want a full rebuild, has he got the time or patience to start with a new project?

Tannehill is a better option at this point, which makes the of Brady to the Titans seem funny.

And watch Belichick go super tank next year and get Trevor…..

[Jace, Extat]

Brady to the Chargers or the Raiders, I say.

[Fez]

10 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

 

Even though he is clearly way past his sell by date, is there anyone else out there that is even halfway good they could get for the salary they pay him?  

BB is old, does he want a full rebuild, has he got the time or patience to start with a new project?

I'm relatively confident Belichick wants to prove he can win a super bowl without Brady; just like I suspect Brady wants to prove he can a super bowl without Belichick. I think its too late for Brady, but not Belichick.

Yeah he's been coaching for ages and is the second oldest active coach right now. But, unlike Joe Gibbs at the end, he doesn't really seem to have lost a step yet. Marv Levy and George Halas were both coaching until age 72, and Levy still made the playoffs in his third- and second- to last seasons. True, coaching is probably more complicated now than it was in the mid '90s, but Belichick has the advantages of more and better technology and probably a larger budget for assistants to help ease the burden. I also think Belichick would like having the record for being the oldest ever NFL coach. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he launched a full rebuild.

[James Arryn]

13 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm relatively confident Belichick wants to prove he can win a super bowl without Brady; just like I suspect Brady wants to prove he can a super bowl without Belichick. I think its too late for Brady, but not Belichick.

Yeah he's been coaching for ages and is the second oldest active coach right now. But, unlike Joe Gibbs at the end, he doesn't really seem to have lost a step yet. Marv Levy and George Halas were both coaching until age 72, and Levy still made the playoffs in his third- and second- to last seasons. True, coaching is probably more complicated now than it was in the mid '90s, but Belichick has the advantages of more and better technology and probably a larger budget for assistants to help ease the burden. I also think Belichick would like having the record for being the oldest ever NFL coach. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he launched a full rebuild.

Plus also, as he gets older, ‘oh, we’re NOT supposed to ________*? I’m so sorry, I don’t remember ever getting that memo. Not as young as I used to be. Oh, I’m sorry, was that YOUR wallet?

*some kind of cheating.

[DMC]

3 hours ago, Maithanet said:

In many ways this SB matchup is like a Rorschach test of your own football philosophy. 

Very nice rundown.  As this is my dream SB matchup, I've been consuming online commentary on it like a cokehead in Vegas since Sunday night, and this was a great summary of all I've read throughout the internets.  The Niners have the matchup advantages (run game vs. Chiefs' shitty run defense, elite pass rush to combat Mahomes), and the Chiefs have Patrick Fucking Mahomes.  I really think the line for this game should be pick em, but gun to my head I agree I'll take the team with the amazing QB by a hair.

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

Very nice rundown.  As this is my dream SB matchup, I've been consuming online commentary on it like a cokehead in Vegas since Sunday night, and this was a great summary of all I've read throughout the internets.  The Niners have the matchup advantages (run game vs. Chiefs' shitty run defense, elite pass rush to combat Mahomes), and the Chiefs have Patrick Fucking Mahomes.  I really think the line for this game should be pick em, but gun to my head I agree I'll take the team with the amazing QB by a hair.

Thank you, I thought it was one of my better posts.  Although I didn't actually pick a side in the debate.  I know I'm rooting for the Chiefs, because I think they're more enjoyable to watch and they have a great fanbase that hasn't won a SB in 50 years. 

But in terms of who I actually think will win? Going into the playoffs I thought that BAL and KC were the best teams in the league and the winner of that game would beat whoever comes out of the NFC.  But then BAL v KC didn't even happen and the Niners defense looks to be back to its early season form, although in the playoffs it's always hard to separate reality from illusion.  I didn't think that GB were actually that good, and fully expected the Niners to roll like they did.  MIN I thought would put up more of a challenge, having just won @NO.  But to me MIN looked out of gas by the time they got to SF, particularly on defense.  How much of that was SF taking the game from them, and how much was a team that had emotionally peaked beating the Saints, and wasn't ready to pull off a second upset in a row?  Impossible to say. 

Nonetheless, I think the Niners will win.  I think they will get pressure on Mahomes just rushing four, and they will be able to put together long drives by running the ball and throwing to Kittle.  Obviously the Chiefs O will get theirs, but the Niners D is just a lot better than what Tennessee and Houston could offer.  In comparison, the Chiefs D isn't really any better than Minnesota or Green Bay's. 

[dbunting]

I think the 49'ers will win but I am rooting for KC. As a bitter Cowboys fan I can't bring myself to cheer on SF. I think that overall SF has a better balanced team without a glaring weakness. If their def can get pressure on Mahommes without blitzing they win, unless Mahommes pulls another 30+ yard td run out of his ass.

[James Arryn]

I’m not so much worried about the Niners have never faced anything like this before...literally weeks ago if we’d been talking about the sea change in quarterbacks we’d have been concentrating on Lamar...but rather that we have faced other versions of Mahomes in the likes of Wilson, Murray, in some respects Brees, and they have given us the most trouble. The antidote to our massive athletic defensive front might be the elusive smaller qb who exhausts them and causes a fraction of hesitation in a defence predicated on sudden and violent propulsion. 

The counter to that argument is that when we did struggle with those types, it was when we were missing the defensive starters most responsible for secondary containment, ie our defence is fine with letting qbs run for a couple yards when they elude the rush, or buying a couple seconds laterally, but it’s when the next levels break down and/or the qb is running around much longer that we get problems, and missing our top ILB, starting safeties, nickel and most explosive pass rusher are not issues that exist any more now they’re all back. And I think we did see in the last 2 games that the second/3rd levels were the major contributors to containment and keeping lateral progress to minimal gains. But it’s an unknown, and will make for an interesting game.

One argument I’m strongly against, though, is the idea that because the seasonally poor run defence of the Chiefs did step up against the Titans that speaks to how they’ll deal with the Niners. Though both effective, the Niners and Titans run games are almost entirely opposite from each other in how and why they are effective. What it will take to beat the Niners run game is a very different plan that what it took to slow down Henry. Jones is an X factor here, and though I can see an argument why he’d be more disruptive to the Titans system than the Niners, I can also see ways in which it might work the other way around. 

As far as the betting line, the Niners are almost anonymous to the general public and Mahomes is the reigning MVP, so I’d be surprised if Vegas didn’t edge that way. Overall I don’t envy the bookies...this is a really interesting match-up with all kinds of reasonable possible outcomes. 

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

One argument I’m strongly against, though, is the idea that because the seasonally poor run defence of the Chiefs did step up against the Titans that speaks to how they’ll deal with the Niners. Though both effective, the Niners and Titans run games are almost entirely opposite from each other in how and why they are effective.

Yeah, this is important on two fronts.  First, a whole season's worth of data obviously >>>>> any one game.  Second, the Titans run game plan is "try to stop Derrick Henry."  The Niners' is the zone run-scheme that has been lucratively successful for the Shanahans since I still played with TMNT action figures.

[dbunting]

10 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

As far as the betting line, the Niners are almost anonymous to the general public and Mahomes is the reigning MVP, so I’d be surprised if Vegas didn’t edge that way. Overall I don’t envy the bookies...this is a really interesting match-up with all kinds of reasonable possible outcomes. 

Started out as a pick em and moved to 1.5 Chiefs favorite, if I am not mistaken.

[Jace, Extat]

27 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah, this is important on two fronts.  First, a whole season's worth of data obviously >>>>> any one game.  Second, the Titans run game plan is "try to stop Derrick Henry."  The Niners' is the zone run-scheme that has been lucratively successful for the Shanahans since I still played with TMNT action figures.

You're such a Donatello.

Right down to your insistence that you're a Michelangelo.

[James Arryn]

38 minutes ago, dbunting said:

Started out as a pick em and moved to 1.5 Chiefs favorite, if I am not mistaken.

Yeah, exactly, and as a fan of this team I’d prefer it even get bigger. The Niners have felt disrespected all year long, with imo a lot of justification...not sure I’ve seen a team this good dismissed so routinely, not in a ‘they suck’ kinda way, but in a ‘yeah, but they still haven’t_______’ which would change weekly depending on the last thing proved. Guys like Sherman exaggerate it, but it’s still pretty real and even more imo important for the SB is that virtually every week on the way to 15-3, the other team has been the story, before and after. Even against teams like the Browns or Rams, the lead up and post-game stories have primarily focused on the other team to whose experience the Niners were often reduced to spectators. 

Going into the SB, I think that pattern should absolutely continue, which will serve to reinforce their sense of being disrespected AND put the bulk of pressure on the Chiefs/Reid/Mahomes.