NFL Playoffs: Hindsight Is 20/20 For Bad Coaching Decisions

[James Arryn]

8 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

You do realize KC was missing Mahomes and Hill for a chunk of the year, and those two represent the most dangerous combination in the league. At full strength no offense compares to the Chief.

I fully realize. My point was not that the Niners were a better scoring machine than KC, but rather that being literally the 2nd highest scoring team in the league, they are far from the Billick Ravens type team many are extrapolating from the first 2 playoff games. 
 

In both cases the other team proved unable to stop the running game, so why stop doing what they can’t stop? Game 1 I think it’s arguable that Shannahan decided Jimmy G looked a little off and leaned into the run, but they came out throwing and sharp in the last game and I think it was more the fact that despite getting gashed, GB kept running a ton of nickel and dime packages...I’ve heard various explanations, from expecting the pass to be setting up the play action or literally just not having enough rotational down lineman to give them breathers without going into pass protection schemes...and in both cases with a lead and an unstoppable run game, it just makes senses. Kyle has also admitted that 28-3 was on his mind.

In any case they are an elite offensive team with an incredibly complex multi-front attack that is currently being discussed like they’re a throwback to John Robinson or something, was my point.

[Jaime L]

3 hours ago, Ramsay B. said:

I’ll miss Eli too. Dude consistently drove me insane with his ridiculous decision-making, but you can never take away those 2 wild SB runs... and the classic Eli resting face. He also threw a great deep ball and had many clutch 4th quarter drives in his prime. Counter that with his 2013 season where I legitimately thought every pass he threw would be picked. Fucking weird career.

I don’t think he should be a HOFer, but he’ll be there one day. 

I never thought he was a great QB. Heck half the time he wasn't even a good QB. But the 2007 and 2011 playoff runs showed that no moment was too big for him and that he was tough as hell. That 2011 NFC CG against the 49ers where he was sacked 6 times and hit double digit times in the mud and still pulled it out, that was something. If I recall he did something similar in the 2007 NFC CG in the snow in Lambeau to effectively end Favre's career with the Packers. 

And yeah the plays he made those Superbowls: the Tyree Helmet catch where he somehow broke out of 3 guys sacking him, the game-winning TD to Plaxico and then in 2011 the throw to Manningham on the sidelines. Both his Superbowl rings couldn't be more improbable and each took a a string of things in a row breaking just right and yet I also can't say he didn't earn 'em either.

Fucking weird career is right. An oddly charmed career that was legendary in moments. 

[dbunting]

If you took away the two SB runs Eli would never be confused with a HOF player. Hell, maybe nothing above average. But you can't remove them and how he performed in the big moment. 16 year career and only 4 pro bowls? But then the other Eli shows up and says yeah I also have 2 SB MVP awards!

[The Last Storm]

Sad that Eli’s last season was spent holding a clip board for most of the year. Will never forget the 07 and 11 runs. When a team struggles for most of the year and gets hot at the right time it’s rightfully called a Giants like run. My best memory (besides the SB games) is that absolute beating he took against Harbaughs Niner team which was loaded. He got pounded that game and got up every time and delivered when it counted most. I’d also like to point out that was he a cold weather QB whose OC for most of his career was a high Risk vs Reward guy in Gilbride and he was never a dink and dunk QB until the last half of his career. Gods save you Giants, for now you are truly lost.

[dbunting]

@Tywin et al.  sounds like Kubiak is the new OC, good news I assume?

[Rhom]

2 hours ago, The Last Storm said:

Sad that Eli’s last season was spent holding a clip board for most of the year. Will never forget the 07 and 11 runs. When a team struggles for most of the year and gets hot at the right time it’s rightfully called a Giants like run. My best memory (besides the SB games) is that absolute beating he took against Harbaughs Niner team which was loaded. He got pounded that game and got up every time and delivered when it counted most. I’d also like to point out that was he a cold weather QB whose OC for most of his career was a high Risk vs Reward guy in Gilbride and he was never a dink and dunk QB until the last half of his career. Gods save you Giants, for now you are truly lost.

Might be good that he held that clipboard.  His W-L record as a starting QB is 117-117.  If he started this whole season, he'd definitely be on the wrong side of history in that L column.

[The Last Storm]

22 minutes ago, Rhom said:

Might be good that he held that clipboard.  His W-L record as a starting QB is 117-117.  If he started this whole season, he'd definitely be on the wrong side of history in that L column.

The years when the Giants had a capable Oline, which have been few, Eli showed what he can do. He’ll get in the Hall based on his Ironman streak and the super bowl runs. Say what you want but every Sunday Eli was a constant who beat Brady twice on the biggest stage.

[Rhom]

2 minutes ago, The Last Storm said:

The years when the Giants had a capable Oline, which have been few, Eli showed what he can do. He’ll get in the Hall based on his Ironman streak and the super bowl runs. Say what you want but every Sunday Eli was a constant who beat Brady twice on the biggest stage.

Oh I think he's a sure thing.  I'm just saying the detractors would have a major argument in their favor if he had a losing record.

I also don't think he'll get in on the first ballot.  May take him a couple  years.

[The Last Storm]

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

Oh I think he's a sure thing.  I'm just saying the detractors would have a major argument in their favor if he had a losing record.

I also don't think he'll get in on the first ballot.  May take him a couple  years.

Agreed, he won’t get in on the first try. 

[DanteGabriel]

1 hour ago, The Last Storm said:

The years when the Giants had a capable Oline, which have been few, Eli showed what he can do. He’ll get in the Hall based on his Ironman streak and the super bowl runs. Say what you want but every Sunday Eli was a constant who beat Brady twice on the biggest stage.

Was there a year when he was one of the three or four best quarterbacks in the league?

[The Last Storm]

Just now, DanteGabriel said:

Was there a year when he was one of the three or four best quarterbacks in the league?

I’d have to say he was top 5-8 for a while, while he had two post seasons where he was top 1.

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said:

Was there a year when he was one of the three or four best quarterbacks in the league?

Well, he did lead the NFL in interceptions three times.

But seriously, the answer is not just no, but hell no.  His best years statistically are 2011 (career highest yard/attempt of 8.4) and 2015 (career highest passer rating of 93.6).  The 2015 93.6 passer rating would put him at 12th in the NFL that year, behind stalwards like Andy Dalton, Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith.  His 2011 8.4 y/a is good enough for a 4th place tie with Carson Palmer. 

His regular season stats are not just "not hall of fame" level, they're not even clearly above average.  Here's a few career passing lines of Eli and some of his contemporaries:

E. Manning - 60% completion, 7.0 y/a, 1.5 td to int ratio. 

B - 62% comp, 7.1 y/a, 1.7 td to int ratio

C - 62% comp, 6.9 y/a, 1.9 td to int ratio

D - 62% comp, 7.3 y/a, 1.6 td to int ratio

Spoiler

B-Andy Dalton, C-Alex Smith, D-Carson Palmer

None of those guys are even sniffing the Hall, except of course for Eli.  And sure, you can't ignore the postseason, and he was very good for 8 of those 12 games (his other playoff appearances...not so much).  But if Eli gets in the Hall (and I agree that he probably will), he will be far and away the worst quarterback in the hall from the 1990s onward.  I can't think of any quarterback in the Hall who was instrumental in his team failing to make the playoffs as many times as Eli was.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said:

Was there a year when he was one of the three or four best quarterbacks in the league?

2007 and 2011? :p

[the Greenleif Stark]

You're lying to yourself if you're saying you wouldn't take Eli's career for your team's QB.  Same reliable guy showing up for 16 years, 210 straight starts, and 2 SB's with MVP honors within a span of 4 years, slayer of the Pats, "can't write the story of the NFL without including Eli Manning."

[Kalbear]

13 minutes ago, the Greenleif Stark said:

You're lying to yourself if you're saying you wouldn't take Eli's career for your team's QB.  Same reliable guy showing up for 16 years, 210 straight starts, and 2 SB's with MVP honors within a span of 4 years, slayer of the Pats, "can't write the story of the NFL without including Eli Manning."

Depends a lot on the team. Would the Seahawks? Nope. Green Bay? Pittsburgh? Indy? New Orleans? Basically the teams who would say 'nope' to Eli are exactly the reason he's not elite - he's below all of them. He's a younger version of Hasselbeck - reliable, useful, never particularly great.

You also can't write the story of the NFL without people like David Tyree, but that doesn't mean shit about putting them in the HoF. 

[DanteGabriel]

1 hour ago, The Last Storm said:

I’d have to say he was top 5-8 for a while, while he had two post seasons where he was top 1.

What years specifically was he even 5-8? Jesus, you have to move the goalposts to top 8 to make Eli even sort of fit.

Eli is Jim Plunkett with the Manning family media ballwashing.

[The Last Storm]

40 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

What years specifically was he even 5-8? Jesus, you have to move the goalposts to top 8 to make Eli even sort of fit.

Eli is Jim Plunkett with the Manning family media ballwashing.

Curious, what do you think is more important career wise, regular season mvps or super bowl mvps? His brother is the regular season standard but I’m sure if you asked him he’d trade a few of the former for the latter.

[Tywin et al.]

22 hours ago, James Arryn said:

I fully realize. My point was not that the Niners were a better scoring machine than KC, but rather that being literally the 2nd highest scoring team in the league, they are far from the Billick Ravens type team many are extrapolating from the first 2 playoff games. 

Got it. Anyone who thinks this team is Ravens 2.0 hasn’t been paying attention, and Jimmy is way better than Dilfer. Also keep in mind I quickly picked them. I think either team can win, but my gut tells me if the Chiefs win, it will be close, and while it could also be a close Niners win, I think the Niners are the team that could completely blow the other team out. But also don’t forget, while you guys did run through us and the Packers, both teams struggled against KC without Mahomes. You are going up against a much better team than the two you just smacked around.

Good luck.

5 hours ago, dbunting said:

@Tywin et al.  sounds like Kubiak is the new OC, good news I assume?

Wasn’t he the shadow OC anyways?

God, has it come to this, where I have to ask a fan of another team about my team? Last year Jace Jedi mind tricked me and got me to repeatedly call Pat Shurmur Pat Schumer.

1 hour ago, the Greenleif Stark said:

You're lying to yourself if you're saying you wouldn't take Eli's career for your team's QB.  Same reliable guy showing up for 16 years, 210 straight starts, and 2 SB's with MVP honors within a span of 4 years, slayer of the Pats, "can't write the story of the NFL without including Eli Manning."

Most fans outside of NE would take two championships over 16 years if it also meant watching a lot of terrible football. That does not make him a HoFer though, and he was not the main reason they won those championships. Eli had a fine career, but he didn’t matter to anyone outside of NY, which means he’s a ring of honor guy, not a HoFer, and that’s okay.

If he does get it, it will be 100% because of things that did not happen on the field. He’ll get in because (i) his name, (ii) the NY media and (iii) people like him.

41 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

What years specifically was he even 5-8? Jesus, you have to move the goalposts to top 8 to make Eli even sort of fit.

Eli is Jim Plunkett with the Manning family media ballwashing.

Certainly wasn't the year (2007) when he threw three pick sixes in a single game, plus another int. 

I was legit shocked to learn while researching that that his brother has more than he does.

[Jaime L]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

None of those guys are even sniffing the Hall, except of course for Eli.  And sure, you can't ignore the postseason, and he was very good for 8 of those 12 games (his other playoff appearances...not so much).  But if Eli gets in the Hall (and I agree that he probably will), he will be far and away the worst quarterback in the hall from the 1990s onward.  I can't think of any quarterback in the Hall who was instrumental in his team failing to make the playoffs as many times as Eli was.

The biggest turd in the punchbowl for Eli Manning's HoF case is Joe Flacco.

Joe Flacco literally has the same QB rating as Eli for his career (84.1) and a much better record 98-73 vs. 117-117. Playoff record wise Eli Manning is 8-4. Joe Flacco is 10-5. Joe Flacco's 2012 postseason, statistically, is more impressive than any postseason Eli had. His postseason stats are better than Elis, but especially so if you throw out Flacco's first two postseasons (when he was an unprepared rookie and second year guy). In-his-prime Joe Flacco was a much safer playoff bet than Eli. 

He even showed similar greatness against great teams like that hail mary game-tying TD pass to Jacoby Jones to beat a very good Denver team. Or lighting up a great 49ers defense in the Superbowl and winning a shoot out. 

But no-one thinks Flacco is a HoFer. If you're going to make the case for Eli it's entirely on the back of 2 Super Bowls vs. 1 and that he beat the undefeated Patriots. But it's impossible to say Eli was some unique playoff unicorn when there's a grimier Baltimore version who is just as good (if not better). There's no objective Eli HoF case; the case that's left is entirely based on the subjective feel of a few sports movie moments and who he beat. 

[DanteGabriel]

23 minutes ago, The Last Storm said:

Curious, what do you think is more important career wise, regular season mvps or super bowl mvps? His brother is the regular season standard but I’m sure if you asked him he’d trade a few of the former for the latter.

In evaluating someone for the Hall of Fame, obviously regular season MVPs count for more. Otherwise we really should start talking more about Julian Edelman's HoF case.

Obviously an individual player can have different feelings about what he'd rather have. Philip Rivers was a better QB than Eli but I bet he'd rather have Eli's career.