US Politics: OBAMAGATE - An American Story

[Durckad]

1 hour ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Is BIDON fighting Godzilla in the next movie?

BIDON is just what happens when you plug BIDOFF in.

[Guest]

The Trump administration is trying hard to yellowcake this pandemic.

Quote

Multiple congressional committees have obtained and are scrutinizing the 30-page report, produced by the Multi-Agency Collaboration Environment (MACE), a part of Sierra Nevada, a major Department of Defense contractor. The report claims to rely on social media postings, commercial satellite imagery, and cellphone location data to draw the conclusion that some sort of “hazardous event” occurred at the Wuhan virology lab in October 2019—an event that allowed COVID-19 to escape. It’s a theory that has gained currency on the political right and in the upper tiers of the Trump administration.  

 

[Centrist Simon Steele]

9 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

According to this post by Harry Enten, state level polls suggest Biden has a lead of 8 points, in other words, slightly better than the nation polls.

Still 6 months out, but some encouraging news. I should note that this is sort of peak Biden or close to it, so I think we may see some tightening as we approach November. Still, its better to be ahead than behind, since then Trump will have to make fewer mistakes or missteps to regain some of those voters (and drive the economy back up)

I don't know, to me it seems like Trump can make every mistake and just walk it off. I saw a reporter ask him the other day why he didn't wear a mask on a tour of a facility making masks, and he said, "I did." And the reporter was like, "But we have video showing you without a mask." And he shrugged and said, "I can't help it if you didn't see me." I mean...this fucking guy thrives within his fuck ups.

[Darzin]

9 hours ago, felice said:

Do you think the US embargo might be a factor in that?

A factor yes but Cuba has had 70 years to develop trading partners that are not the US and is near plenty of other countries. It also had 40 years of importing oil and exporting sugar at "friendly prices" from the Soviets.

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

Which oppression are you speaking of? The Batista-Mafia torture sop of the 1950's?

Batista was 70 years ago at some point the current Cuban government has to own the bed they've  made Cuba is a pretty oppressive place they only allowed citizens to access the internet last year. Look as impoverished, authoritarian societies go Cuba is one of the better ones because of their emphasis on education and healthcare. But plenty of countries in the last 50 years have gone from Cuba's level to a prop serous one and a few achievements does not a great society make. If I started carrying water for Pinochet you'd no doubt rightly call me out out in as a fascist apologist. And part of what makes Trump so bad is he threatens to imprison his rivals and shut down journalism, Cuba actually does that stuff. So pardon me if I don't cry crocodile tears when Biden denounces them.  

[Fragile Bird]

7 hours ago, Darzin said:

A factor yes but Cuba has had 70 years to develop trading partners that are not the US and is near plenty of other countries. It also had 40 years of importing oil and exporting sugar at "friendly prices" from the Soviets.

Sorry, that’s a pretty stupid comment in view of how US sanctions work. Any country that would help out Cuba would get sanctioned by the US through fines, tariffs or possibly even being banned. Losing a market of 300 M people is not going to be sacrificed in return for a third-world market of a few million people.

The US just declared no one in the world can sell microchips manufactured with US equipment to Huawei without the permission of the US government. Do you imagine that companies around the world are going to ignore that proclamation and risk being shut out the US market?

[Maithanet]

8 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

I don't know, to me it seems like Trump can make every mistake and just walk it off. I saw a reporter ask him the other day why he didn't wear a mask on a tour of a facility making masks, and he said, "I did." And the reporter was like, "But we have video showing you without a mask." And he shrugged and said, "I can't help it if you didn't see me." I mean...this fucking guy thrives within his fuck ups.

This is true, and it has been true for Trump's entire political career.  I remember in the 2016 campaign, there was a cycle where he would make some huge screwup that would normally sink any other politician (like attacking a gold star family, mocking a disabled person, etc), his poll numbers would go down like one point, and then he would pick a new target (usually the media) and his polls would recover.  Over and over again.  It was like if Trump ever managed to not have any HUGE scandal in any given week, you could expect his poll numbers to rise. 

His presidency has been the same story.  He has lurched from one unpopular move to another, and yet his polls never move.  Even when does something SUPER unpopular like almost repealing Obamacare or the govt shutdown, his polls always recover immediately afterwards.  The only consolation is that the rare good news for the administration (like the Mueller report coming out without additional charges) don't really move the polls either.  Trump is locked into an incredibly narrow range of approval.

At the end of the Bush administration, the president was polling at ~30%.  But obviously partisan polarization and media bubbles have made things worse, because the floor for Trump is now more like 38%, and even then, there's still a contingent of people willing to forget and forgive when the news cycle moves on.  However, the reverse is also true.  Trump's "rally around the flag" bump was far smaller than most leaders worldwide and virtually all governors.  Because while Trump's floor is 38%, his ceiling is ~47%.  53% of the country absolutely loathes him.  And considering there's an election coming up, 53% of the country hating you is actually pretty bad.  Which is why Trump keeps trying to suppress the vote.

[Fragile Bird]

Last night CNN had one of their better specials on, called Scandalous, about the National Enquirer. It was fascinating to see how they operated, like evil bastards, yet broke incredible stories at times. Equally fascinating was how it changed after the last takeover, and how it worked hand in glove with Trump.

They’ll do a re-run sometime this week, worth watching, or recording, since it might be on late at night.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Interesting way of framing the article:

New threat to the economy: Americans are saving like it's the 1980s

Quote

 

Although the shifts in consumer behavior are rational, they point to longer-term challenges for an economy that is dominated by consumer spending, which makes up more than two-thirds of US GDP.

Economists warn that even after stay-at-home orders are lifted, many Americans won't spend as aggressively as before until there is a vaccine. It's not as simple as reopening the economy.

 

Is spending really the only way for us to get out of the hole? Why does the burden have to be on the American consumer to make irrational choices and overextend himself/herself?

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Is spending really the only way for us to get out of the hole? Why does the burden have to be on the American consumer to make irrational choices and overextend himself/herself?

It is the way things were beforehand, so people naturally assume that's the best way to get back to "normal".  But I know that virtually everyone I've talked to, from different economic situations, are all feeling nervous about their savings and being able to pay the debts they have.  It will take a long time for spending to return to "normal", if it ever does.

And that is actually pretty relevant for the November election as well.  Polling shows that Biden consistently beats Trump on COVID issues, but Trump still has an edge of "who handles the economy better".  But I think that while the economy is in shambles, there is a delay between the economic hit and when the country really feels it.  COVID bills mean that people can temporarily put off mortgage foreclosure.  A lot of stores are hoping the reopening will mean they can stay in business.  While it is astonishing to me that anyone could think that Trump is helping the economy, I think that his economic snake oil is going to be harder and harder to sell in the coming months.  At least, I hope so. 

[Fragile Bird]

44 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Interesting way of framing the article:

New threat to the economy: Americans are saving like it's the 1980s

Is spending really the only way for us to get out of the hole? Why does the burden have to be on the American consumer to make irrational choices and overextend himself/herself?

In a word, yes. And it's for a very basic reason, 75% to 80% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending. If the consumer stops spending, the US economy slows down.

Before the Covid-19 pandemic started I talked about this. Iirc, we were talking about recessions. The economy will be good until consumers decide to stop spending, and then there will be a recession.

eta: and the reason why some pundits are saying, "it will be different this time", is because trillions are being poured into the economy to prop it up. Be very, very careful about anyone who says "this time it will be different". It usually isn't.

[Guest]

I am really struggling with the economic side of this crisis. Luckily, business has picked up enough that I was brought back on from furlough, but it's looking like the commercial real estate market (which is where I make my living), is going to get walloped here before too long, what with everyone and their grandmother not paying their rent during the crisis.

Our clients fall on both the debt and equity sides, but we are still slow and it appears that everyone is keeping their powder dry for when things bottom out. At that point the Company That Must Not Be Named will most likely do the same thing to commercial real estate as it did to residential real estate, which will likely provide us with an uptick in business, but I'm struggling to see where things will go after that.

It's really disappointing on a personal level too, because I was the point person working with my company to bring a new service line to market (that I created) and that we were hoping would greatly change my industry (and kick me up in title and pay). Now I'm not sure if that will ever even happen.

[IheartIheartTesla]

25 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

In a word, yes. And it's for a very basic reason, 75% to 80% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending. If the consumer stops spending, the US economy slows down.

Yes, I understand that (the number is in the article too, part of what I quoted). It was more of a rhetorical question as to whether we needed to fundamentally address the foundations on which the US economy was based.

On a different note, the Biden campaign thinks it can be competitive in Arizona, Georgia and Texas. They must have seen some good internal numbers. If they dedicate resources to Texas, then I'd suggest Trump will need to play defense there...i only hope for some downballot success so the GoP doesnt have open season in that state.

[Fragile Bird]

2 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Yes, I understand that (the number is in the article too, part of what I quoted). It was more of a rhetorical question as to whether we needed to fundamentally address the foundations on which the US economy was based.

Lol, sorry for that!

If you want your economy to rely less on consumers, and have a good standard of living, you need to ramp up exports. Like Singapore and China. Most other nations with lower consumer spending are 3rd world nations, I suspect.

China’s exports will likely drop substantially once it’s consumers increase their spending.

[Martell Spy]

Yeah, the way American freedom works is you have to spread it around. 

 

HHS Chief Alex Azar: Defying Social Distancing Guidelines Part Of American ‘Freedom’
The secretary of health and human services wouldn’t say if he’s concerned by people gathering in large crowds without masks.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/alex-azar-social-distancing-freedom_n_5ec15be2c5b617598bfd480e

Quote

 

Alex Azar, the U.S. secretary of health and human services, on Sunday stopped short of condemning Americans who flout the federal government’s social distancing guidelines, claiming such actions are “part of the freedom” in the United States.

During CNN’s “State of the Union,” host Jake Tapper asked Azar if he’s concerned by photos of people without masks crowding together in large groups in some states that have begun to ease coronavirus restrictions.

″I think, in any individual instance, you’re going to see people doing things that are irresponsible,” Azar said. “That’s part of the freedom that we have here in America.”

 

 

[Darzin]

3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Sorry, that’s a pretty stupid comment in view of how US sanctions work. Any country that would help out Cuba would get sanctioned by the US through fines, tariffs or possibly even being banned. Losing a market of 300 M people is not going to be sacrificed in return for a third-world market of a few million people.

First Cuba is embargoed not sanctioned plenty of nations trade with Cuba. You can buy Cuban cigars in Canada for example.

Second this ignores the 40 years during which Cuba could sell their exports at higher then market prices and import oil and manufactured goods at lower then market value do to Soviet "friendly prices." 

[Rippounet]

14 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

HHS Chief Alex Azar: Defying Social Distancing Guidelines Part Of American ‘Freedom’

Random question but... In this case, why should Americans obey laws, at all? Or does "rule of law" only exist to protect private property?

[Fez]

On the economy, I do not expect Republicans to agree to extend the extra $600/week UI payments when they expire in July. Which means things are likely to start looking much more dire in August and September, even if there isn't a resurgence of the virus. Right now those payments are helping prop up consumer spending, such as it is, in a pretty massive way.

[Fragile Bird]

24 minutes ago, Darzin said:

First Cuba is embargoed not sanctioned plenty of nations trade with Cuba. You can buy Cuban cigars in Canada for example.

Second this ignores the 40 years during which Cuba could sell their exports at higher then market prices and import oil and manufactured goods at lower then market value do to Soviet "friendly prices." 

Right, the sale of Cuban cigars in Canada is going to run the Cuban economy.

The US has embargoed it's trade to the Cuba, but it can impose sanctions on other countries that do trade with Cuba. The Helms-Burton Act penalizes foreign companies that do business in Cuba by not allowing them to do business in the US, and ships that dock in Cuba cannot do so in the US for 6 months. But in any event, the embargo means economic sanctions against Cuba.

The US spends an inordinate amount of time trying to discourage other countries from doing business with Cuba. For example, BP was reported to have backed out of off-shore oil exploration because of threats made by the US.

And when Americans have monopolies on technology, threatening sanctions on countries who sell US technology to Cuba stutifies their economy. 

Of course, when it's in US interests those embargoes can disappear. Ther US is so desperate to sell agriculture products to anyone who wants to buy them, more and more food gets sold to Cuba. For all the embargoes, the US is still Cuba's 6th biggest trade partner.

Funnily enough, it seems Donald Trump broke the embargo in 1998, spending $68,000 investigating the possibility of building a hotel in Cuba. Do you think Barr is going to announce an investigation into that embargo breach any time soon? 

Oh, and of course, the Trump administration has loosened the restrictions on suing parties who do business in Cuba. Any company that does business with Cuba, the US says, is trafficking in stolen property and can be sued. Every president since Helms-Burton was passed suppressed that section of the act, but not Donald Trump. Carnival Cruise Lines docked their ships in Havana Cuban ports after Obama allowed them to travel there, and now they are being sued for $750 M dollars for "using stolen property" by using the docks.

 

[Paladin of Ice]

14 hours ago, Darth Richard II said:

Yeah you convinced me. I promise not to vote for BIDON

I, on the other hand, promise to vote for “Bye, Don.”

[Martell Spy]

47 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

Random question but... In this case, why should Americans obey laws, at all? Or does "rule of law" only exist to protect private property?

Pretty much, but you are missing something. Private property and privilege must be protected. For example, if a lower income scale white man wants to wear a pistol openly on his belt and go to the Walmart, then it's his absolute right to do so.

Not exaggerating here either. I use this example because during the pandemic I was driving somewhere local and saw striding towards the Walmart a man, his wife (presumably), and his child. He had a pistol openly on his belt. I've never seen something like that here in my town, perhaps it was pandemic craziness. I don't live in red state America, I'm in a pretty urbanized Seattle suburb. 

I didn't go in the store and see how this played out. But I would guess a big part of his presumption in getting away with this was being a white man in America. And the lack of car does seem to indicate either he doesn't own one, or he's put it away during the pandemic, which implies a lack of funds.