US Politics: Biden our time while Trump's on the stump

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm no lawyer. But the way I understand it, while the immediate issue is of criminal law only, there is a strong likelihood that there will be civil law impacts. That was actually one of the state's arguments against the case, and Gorsuch replied with a massive shoulder shrug in his decision:

 

Okay, that sounds more like what I was thinking.

[S John]

1 hour ago, aceluby said:

Where are you located?  We're due in November and haven't gotten any direction about how this is all going to work from our Dr.  We are trying to be extra cautious, but my in-laws play victim and tell us we're trying to "punish" them when we tell them we're not comfortable with them staying with us after traveling through 4 states to get to us.  If we followed this they'd basically not be able to see the baby until next year, likely, which would end up with them blaming us for preventing them from seeing their baby (their words...).  My mother in law is kind of insane.

Virginia.  I love taking pot shots at Governor Northam for sport, but I’m glad we have a Democrat at the helm during this time and I do think he’s done about as good of a job as possible considering that the president undermines good sense advice on a daily basis.  VA seems to be holding steady and my wife and I may have dodged a bullet by moving here from Texas recently.

We live in a small town.  Once you are 1 minute outside of town there are Trump signs everywhere but I have noticed that, despite that, when I go to the store or anywhere indoors in public mask compliance is near 100%.  I have to credit the governor because I am sure that in states where government executive positions are filled with science deniers from the POTUS on down, like in Florida and Texas, it’s probably no easy feat to get people to take things seriously. 

My parents are in the same state so at least they wouldn’t have to travel far but my in-laws will have to travel to visit the baby same as yours, which is another shitty aspect of this.  We really wanted to have my wife’s mom come and stay for a bit after the baby is born but I now highly doubt that will happen since she’s in Texas.  

Doctors have been pretty good and open with us about the precautions we should be taking.  Most of it really pertains to later in the pregnancy and the birth where we will have to take several unusual steps to try and keep us safe and healthy, but up until that point we are pretty much just supposed to do the same as everyone else in terms of social distancing, washing hands, and wearing masks in public.  We’ve allowed ourselves to spend time with my parents and my sisters family to the extent that they’ve also been socially distancing, and I’ve recently restarted outdoor fitness classes, but other than that we’ve been near-recluses this whole time.

Sucks about your in-laws trying to blame y’all.  At least (so far) both of our parents have been pretty understanding about us backing out of prior commitments and generally limiting contact.  It’s a shit situation overall though.  There will be no baby shower, no parental help in the late pregnancy or early weeks after birth, no sharing the moment with anyone besides my wife and I, and of course the actual virus creeping around in every community presenting its own risks. I’m legit angry at the piss poor leadership, the cowardly enablers, and the pervasive selfishness that has led us to where we are. 

[Maithanet]

Lots of people have pointed out that this ad buy reflects a campaign in disarray.  They're targeting the main swing states, plus playing offense in NV, NM and MN, and playing defense in IA, GA and OH.  If MN is in play, then there's no way Trump hasn't already won OH.  So either he ought to be playing defense and targeting the swing states (on the assumption Trump needs to make up ground), or targeting the swing states and playing offense (on the assumption the national environment will improve).  Doing both at once does not look like money well spent.

IMO, if I were them, I'd just assume OH and IA will go red.  Advertising doesn't move the needle 5 points, and if Trump is losing states he won by 7-8% in 2016, then he's already lost. 

[Gaston de Foix]

What Gorsuch is essentially telling Congress is fix this legislatively.  If you don't, on your own head be it.  I've watched portions of every SC confirmation hearing since John Roberts (who was the absolute champ). Alito was largely dull.  Unlike Roberts he didn't commit to judicial minimalism but he also subtly disowned orthodox originalism of the Scalia variety (let alone Thomas).  You could sense his anger over the racism and CAP membership allegations.  

Sotomayor was a little wooden but passionate (yeah, yeah, I know sounds like stereotyping. But it's true I tell you).  Graham tried some spectacularly hackish shenanigans with her and she was a block of granite. Kagan was humble, friendly but nowhere near as smooth as Roberts. The Senators liked her a great deal more than Sotomayor. 

No one, no one had Gorsuch's arrogance.  You could tell he despised the process, despised the rigmarole, and basically thought the senators were idiots.  And now he's on the Court he's going to call Congress idiots early and often.  He's taking Scalia's project of professed indifference to outcomes to its logical conclusion and building up considerable cred for a judicial philosophy that ignores real world consequences.  In this he's the diametric opposite of what Roberts professed during his confirmation hearing, deference to Congress' judgments and the messy business of lawmaking. 

[Gaston de Foix]

1 hour ago, S John said:

Virginia.  

Hey! DC.  Due in Jan.  Should we start an expecting parents thread, do you think, or just take over this one and piss off the others?

@aceluby, I'm having my mom-in-law come over a couple of months earlier so she can help my wife through the birth and be there to provide guidance/support.  I figure if there's an infection risk she'll manifest ahead of time and we'll deal with it.  My parents will be more difficult as they live in a different country.  But we haven't received any meaningful guidance yet at all from our doctors on COVID/pregnancy.  I don't think they've figured it out at all.  We have taken to calling our little one "Covie" as a sort of defiant nickname/joke.  

[aceluby]

59 minutes ago, S John said:

Virginia.  I love taking pot shots at Governor Northam for sport, but I’m glad we have a Democrat at the helm during this time and I do think he’s done about as good of a job as possible considering that the president undermines good sense advice on a daily basis.  VA seems to be holding steady and my wife and I may have dodged a bullet by moving here from Texas recently.

We live in a small town.  Once you are 1 minute outside of town there are Trump signs everywhere but I have noticed that, despite that, when I go to the store or anywhere indoors in public mask compliance is near 100%.  I have to credit the governor because I am sure that in states where government executive positions are filled with science deniers from the POTUS on down, like in Florida and Texas, it’s probably no easy feat to get people to take things seriously. 

My parents are in the same state so at least they wouldn’t have to travel far but my in-laws will have to travel to visit the baby same as yours, which is another shitty aspect of this.  We really wanted to have my wife’s mom come and stay for a bit after the baby is born but I now highly doubt that will happen since she’s in Texas.  

Doctors have been pretty good and open with us about the precautions we should be taking.  Most of it really pertains to later in the pregnancy and the birth where we will have to take several unusual steps to try and keep us safe and healthy, but up until that point we are pretty much just supposed to do the same as everyone else in terms of social distancing, washing hands, and wearing masks in public.  We’ve allowed ourselves to spend time with my parents and my sisters family to the extent that they’ve also been socially distancing, and I’ve recently restarted outdoor fitness classes, but other than that we’ve been near-recluses this whole time.

Sucks about your in-laws trying to blame y’all.  At least (so far) both of our parents have been pretty understanding about us backing out of prior commitments and generally limiting contact.  It’s a shit situation overall though.  There will be no baby shower, no parental help in the late pregnancy or early weeks after birth, no sharing the moment with anyone besides my wife and I, and of course the actual virus creeping around in every community presenting its own risks. I’m legit angry at the piss poor leadership, the cowardly enablers, and the pervasive selfishness that has led us to where we are. 

Thank you!  My wife is going to ask the Dr at her next appt what their recommendations are and go from there.  I'm definitely far more concerned about the health of my child than the feelings of my family or in-laws.

[Fez]

10 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Lots of people have pointed out that this ad buy reflects a campaign in disarray.  They're targeting the main swing states, plus playing offense in NV, NM and MN, and playing defense in IA, GA and OH.  If MN is in play, then there's no way Trump hasn't already won OH.  So either he ought to be playing defense and targeting the swing states (on the assumption Trump needs to make up ground), or targeting the swing states and playing offense (on the assumption the national environment will improve).  Doing both at once does not look like money well spent.

IMO, if I were them, I'd just assume OH and IA will go red.  Advertising doesn't move the needle 5 points, and if Trump is losing states he won by 7-8% in 2016, then he's already lost. 

I forget which pundit it was, maybe Nate Silver even, but I always remember there was someone back in 2008 defending McCain for running ads in PA and MI to the very end. Whereas most pundits were saying those states were lost and he should be focusing entirely on FL and OH, as well as do more defense in places like NC. The point the pundit made was that a campaign has to assume they still have a path to 270 and go on the offensive accordingly. At certain point you have to just take on faith that you'll still win some given states, because if you don't then you have no chance at all. 

You can't just be on defense everywhere. But apparently the Trump campaign doesn't believe that. 

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, Fez said:

I forget which pundit it was, maybe Nate Silver even, but I always remember there was someone back in 2008 defending McCain for running ads in PA and MI to the very end. Whereas most pundits were saying those states were lost and he should be focusing entirely on FL and OH, as well as do more defense in places like NC. At certain point you have to just take on faith that you'll still win some given states, because if you don't then you have no chance at all. 

Well what's weird is that Trump lost the popular vote but actually won the EC with two states to spare.  So if he only defended the big 6 swing states of AZ, FL, NC, PA, WI, MI, then he would only need to win 4 of those states to be reelected.  There's still some small margin for error  to 270 there.  Whereas expanding to a state like NM...there's no logic to it.  If anything NM is moving away from Republicans, and he wasn't particularly close last time.  It is almost impossible to come up with a scenario where NM is the tipping point state for Trump.  

[Fez]

3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Well what's weird is that Trump lost the popular vote but actually won the EC with two states to spare.  So if he only defended the big 6 swing states of AZ, FL, NC, PA, WI, MI, then he would only need to win 4 of those states to be reelected.  There's still some small margin for error  to 270 there.  Whereas expanding to a state like NM...there's no logic to it.  If anything NM is moving away from Republicans, and he wasn't particularly close last time.  It is almost impossible to come up with a scenario where NM is the tipping point state for Trump.  

All I can come up with is if Biden collapsed with Hispanics (and he is doing a bit worse than Clinton did, but not that much), but kept most (but not all) of his other current support and ended up at +5 or so nationally. Maybe you'd end up with a 271-267 win for Trump. Where Biden wins the Clinton states and takes back PA, WI, MI, but loses NM and NV; and Trump holds FL, AZ, IA, OH, and NC.

But it's hard to envision what could cause that kind of isolated collapse. And even if that all happened, Biden would still win MN, so why campaign there? And also, the Trump campaign is doing nothing to try to strengthen his appeal to Hispanics right now.

[Guest]

30 minutes ago, Fez said:

I forget which pundit it was, maybe Nate Silver even, but I always remember there was someone back in 2008 defending McCain for running ads in PA and MI to the very end. Whereas most pundits were saying those states were lost and he should be focusing entirely on FL and OH, as well as do more defense in places like NC. The point the pundit made was that a campaign has to assume they still have a path to 270 and go on the offensive accordingly. At certain point you have to just take on faith that you'll still win some given states, because if you don't then you have no chance at all. 

You can't just be on defense everywhere. But apparently the Trump campaign doesn't believe that. 

Just anecdotal, but I'm seeing the airwaves being inundated with Trump advertising here. In July. It's bizarre.

I've seen some occasional Biden ads, so even that is kind of weird, but nothing like the Trump ads.

[butterbumps!]

6 hours ago, DanteGabriel said:

I'm working up a slow-boiling but towering rage at the incompetent greedhead chucklefucks that have screwed up the US government response to this. I don't think it will be safe for my son to start kindergarten in the fall. It is driving me slowly crazy to have him home all day while I try to work. I can't imagine another year of this, and the socialization and skill-building he'll miss out on.

Yea I’ve got a cold hate for everyone  responsible for this clusterfuck while trapped in a similar hell as you with my toddler.   At least I’ll be on leave imminently, so no more working from home during the off hours I’m not doing childcare (I’m 40 weeks pregnant).   But that doesn’t solve the early education-socialization he’ll be missing in the fall when this inevitably blows up again.  And at that point I’ll be wfh again, this time also with an infant.  At least I’m in a city that mostly has its covid shit together, but I really don’t know how this is going to work without schools and childcare.  

[maarsen]

4 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Okay, that sounds more like what I was thinking.

We have similar situations here in Canada. The Supreme Court here was asked to rule on the question of Aboriginal rights and what it actually means. The upshot was that the indigenous peoples of Canada now own big chunks of Canada, including the land under major cities. The actual ownership doesn't change but the tribes that have a claim are now owed compensation worth in the  billions of dollars. 

I suspect in Oklahoma that the same will happen in that the Creek's will be owed big time by both the state and federal governments. 

[S John]

2 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

We have taken to calling our little one "Covie" as a sort of defiant nickname/joke.  

 love it. 

2 hours ago, aceluby said:

Thank you!  My wife is going to ask the Dr at her next appt what their recommendations are and go from there.  I'm definitely far more concerned about the health of my child than the feelings of my family or in-laws.

Same.  When we brought it up with the Dr’s it was because we were contemplating going to a baby shower for one of my cousins. There are 4 pregnant women in my family right now! We happened to have appointments with 2 different OBGyn the week before the shower and both were just kinda like... nah, not unless it’s absolutely necessary.  

We fully expected they would veto the idea, but hearing it from OUR actual doctor gave us a pretty good excuse for disappointing everyone. We actually really wanted to go, but getting official medical advice on it kind of gives you a pass to tell anyone who doesn’t like it to pound sand if it comes to that.

[Tywin et al.]

1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Just anecdotal, but I'm seeing the airwaves being inundated with Trump advertising here. In July. It's bizarre.

I've seen some occasional Biden ads, so even that is kind of weird, but nothing like the Trump ads.

Both Trump ads and Super PAC ads.

 

Did anyone catch Biden's speech today? I wouldn't be too worried about his public speaking capabilities. 

[Gaston de Foix]

25 minutes ago, S John said:

 love it. 

Same.  When we brought it up with the Dr’s it was because we were contemplating going to a baby shower for one of my cousins. There are 4 pregnant women in my family right now! We happened to have appointments with 2 different OBGyn the week before the shower and both were just kinda like... nah, not unless it’s absolutely necessary.  

We fully expected they would veto the idea, but hearing it from OUR actual doctor gave us a pretty good excuse for disappointing everyone. We actually really wanted to go, but getting official medical advice on it kind of gives you a pass to tell anyone who doesn’t like it to pound sand if it comes to that.

The baby shower thing is hard.  But we recently attended one by Zoom and are planning to do ours by Zoom as well.  It worked surprisingly well.  In general technology can really go a long way towards keeping folks invested and involved without increasing health risks. 

[DMC]

7 hours ago, Fez said:

If there's any statewide Democratic wins there this year, I think there's a very strong chance she becomes an independent who caucuses with Democrats before she's up for re-election in 2022. 

Specter, Lieberman, Jeffords.  Senators switching (or getting kicked out of) parties hasn't worked out too well electorally lately - other than Southern Democrats switching to GOP.  Without a realignment among one's constituents, it's a bad idea for an incumbent to switch parties both theoretically and empirically.  The party you left will view you as a traitor and the party you joined won't trust you.  This effect is only strengthened with heightened polarization.  I do agree Murkowski is pretty screwed in the 2022 GOP primary, regardless who's president.  I'd advise switching her affiliation to independent from the get-go so she can ensure she's still on the ballot, but still maintain caucusing with the GOP.

Anyway, nice polling numbers from AK.  That's my pick for random red state that goes blue in the case of a Biden route.

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Well what's weird is that Trump lost the popular vote but actually won the EC with two states to spare.  So if he only defended the big 6 swing states of AZ, FL, NC, PA, WI, MI, then he would only need to win 4 of those states to be reelected.

I think this type of thinking is premature.  Saw when the recent fundraising numbers came out there was some derision that the Trump campaign has spent so much of its largesse.  So what?  In fact, good!  Trump is not gonna have a fundraising problem, and spending money early is generally a good idea.  And when it comes to advertising, since he can't really do his rallies in spite of himself, that's pretty his greatest campaign strength.  So, lean into it.  I agree he shouldn't be spending money in New Mexico or Georgia right now, but those are just about the only states I find objectionable.  There seems to be this mindset that states are completely isolated.  Obviously, they are not, and there are downstream effects for advertising.  Further, I'd be curious to see the data that tweet came from - many media markets overlap so "spending" in some states may be targeted at others.

If you have the money I don't think you start narrowing the map til after the convention.  Silver and other data-driven pundits may ridicule such a strategy, but it's best to take a shot to move numbers early if you have the chance.  Who knows?  Obviously, that data is driven in large part by the money invested in advertising. 

[S John]

14 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

The baby shower thing is hard.  But we recently attended one by Zoom and are planning to do ours by Zoom as well.  It worked surprisingly well.  In general technology can really go a long way towards keeping folks invested and involved without increasing health risks. 

I think that is probably what we will do as well.  It isn’t the way we wanted to do it, but in the end I guess it’s really about not having to foot the entire bill for thousands of dollars in baby swag.

[Gaston de Foix]

2 minutes ago, S John said:

I think that is probably what we will do as well.  It isn’t the way we wanted to do it, but in the end I guess it’s really about not having to foot the entire bill for thousands of dollars in baby swag.

You mean those christian louboutins for a 6 month infant won't come in handy? The other ridiculous gift we saw was a giant teddy bear for a couple living in a one bed in NYC.  I mean, have mercy.  

[DMC]

19 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Debates havent mattered much for a while now, and this is going to be the least mattering debate.

Yup.  They never really mattered much - I hated having to go over "major debate moments" in my Media & Politics course as if they actually affected the outcome.  Bush didn't lose cuz he looked at his watch, Ford didn't lose because his answer made him look stupid on eastern Europe, and Bentsen's legit awesome burn on Quayle didn't help Dukakis win the election.  But even then, they especially don't matter right now.  We're all pissed and have descended to our tribes, for better of worse.  The power of persuasion, at least among constituents, is a relic.

10 hours ago, DanteGabriel said:

I'm working up a slow-boiling but towering rage at the incompetent greedhead chucklefucks that have screwed up the US government response to this. I don't think it will be safe for my son to start kindergarten in the fall. It is driving me slowly crazy to have him home all day while I try to work. I can't imagine another year of this, and the socialization and skill-building he'll miss out on.

I don't know about K-12 but talking to my advisors I know most higher education are planning on a hybrid system in the fall - limiting face-to-face but maintaining it to some degree.  Of course, this also means there's a hiring freeze among most institutions while I'm trying to get a job so...fuck off corona.  The answer, both with K-12 and college, would be an influx of federal cash to protect education as much as Trump is interested in protecting "small businesses" like Kanye and the Kardashians.  Most states can't take the burden which already means crippling cuts that will only continue.  But, good luck with that.

Also, haven't been around much, not sure if Trump's ban on any international student "only" taking online classes will be deported has been mentioned.  This has affected friends of mine.  One Mancunian douchenozzle has to go back in the next couple weeks.  Gonna get drunk with him on Saturday to say goodbye, not sure I'll ever see him again.  Fuck You Trump.

[davos]

5 hours ago, Fez said:

I forget which pundit it was, maybe Nate Silver even, but I always remember there was someone back in 2008 defending McCain for running ads in PA and MI to the very end. Whereas most pundits were saying those states were lost and he should be focusing entirely on FL and OH, as well as do more defense in places like NC. The point the pundit made was that a campaign has to assume they still have a path to 270 and go on the offensive accordingly. At certain point you have to just take on faith that you'll still win some given states, because if you don't then you have no chance at all. 

You can't just be on defense everywhere. But apparently the Trump campaign doesn't believe that. 

You seem to be assuming some kind of rational and considered response from the Trump campaign based off of sound strategy rather than whims of an increasingly unhinged mind throwing money and resources at whatever plan his delusions spew forth today. We're not quite at the "Hitler in the bunker, talking plans to win the war while allied armies are closing in on Berlin from all sides and all he has left fighting are children and old men" point but we're not too far from it. Of course his delusions won in 2016 but Trump seems so much further detached from reality at this point. And it looks like all the professionals who would provide coherence to his campaign have either been let go, moved on, or simply know to keep their mouth shut.