Gaston de Foix Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 On the topic of pregnancy and COVID-19, a rather alarming report which the Trump administration, with its typical concern for the unborn, is trying to suppress: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6925a1-H.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Taking a look at the brutal numbers in the US these days, I'd say the prediction of 200,000 deaths by November 1 is optimistic. I suspect the actual date will be the first week of September, in which case there will be lots of opportunity to lambast Trump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 8 hours ago, Fragile Bird said: Taking a look at the brutal numbers in the US these days, I'd say the prediction of 200,000 deaths by November 1 is optomistic. I suspect the actual date will be the first week of September, in which case there will be lots of opportunity to lambast Trump. But that's fine. The number was supposed to be 2.5 million. Trump has saved over 2 million lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 New ABC poll has approval of Trump on handling the virus down to 33%. If they have voting numbers they haven't released them yet, so who knows if this is translating into something tangible yet. But, if this holds up, Trump is starting to lose his actual base; at least on this issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Anti-Targ Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Trump's base of true believers is surely not over 33%, my guess is it's more in the low 20s at best. The Republican base, those who will vote republican regardless of who the candidate is will be considerably higher than 33%. So at least on the handling of the pandemic he is losing some of the Republican base. It's this republican base that he is losing that will have senate and house republicans worried. Not worried that they will vote Democrat, but worried they will be so disappointed at how things are going they will consider not voting in November. Whereas it's fairly reasonable to assume that the Democrat base is well motivated to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Quote Federal Judge Emmet Sullivan in a court petition Thursday demanded a rehearing of a controversial appeals court decision allowing the Justice Department to drop charges against Michael Flynn, who briefly served as President Donald Trump’s national security adviser. In a 2-1 ruling last month, a panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ordered Sulivan to terminate the case, even though Flynn had pleaded guilty — twice — to lying to the FBI about his private negotiations with a Russian diplomat shortly after Trump’s 2016 election. Sullivan is now calling for a full hearing by all active judges on the appeals court, arguing that the three-member panel’s ruling was a “dramatic break from precedent” that threatens to the judicial process upside down.” Judge Calls For Full Appeals Court Review Of Ruling Dropping Michael Flynn Charges Court clash continues to rage over power of the executive branch in fight over booted national security adviser and his secret talks with Russian official. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/emmet-sullivan-michael-flynn-william-barr-court-charges_n_5f07926cc5b63a72c33f4b2a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Trump's "base" is pretty clearly at around 40 percent when it comes to voting. It's not surprising that number lowers when you ask for approval on his performance on any number of issues, but that doesn't indicate change in vote. Will that number decrease? Could, but it also could increase. I'm not gonna look it up, but there's this Mad Men scene with Jared Harris' character in the back of a car in which his wife tells him "I know how much you hate uncertainty." That's this election. Overall I trust the Gallup numbers more than anything. If he continues to be under 40 throughout the summer he's almost certainly fucked - regardless of the complications of vote suppression and mail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 1 hour ago, Fez said: New ABC poll has approval of Trump on handling the virus down to 33%. If they have voting numbers they haven't released them yet, so who knows if this is translating into something tangible yet. But, if this holds up, Trump is starting to lose his actual base; at least on this issue. Despite all of Trump's efforts otherwise, this election more and more seems like an election that is going to be about COVID above all else. It is hard to envision how Trump's handling of COVID could be much worse. He has denied it's a problem, actively mocked and thwarted efforts to reduce its spread, hosted rallies sure to foster its spread, and declared victory in the face of defeat. Normally Americans just laugh about the opinions of Europeans, but when people are like "Europe has 1/10th the cases of the US and are reopening safely" whereas we're descending to the next level of hell....it's not a good look. More and more I think that a true landslide (Biden winning by double digits) is, while definitely not certain, very much a possibility. Even Biden +15 cannot be completely ruled out, and the downballot implications of a wipeout like that (in a redistricting year!) would be breathtaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 23 minutes ago, DMC said: It's not surprising that number lowers when you ask for approval on his performance on any number of issues, but that doesn't indicate change in vote. Except, other than opinions on whether he should be tweeting, I can't really think of any specific issues where Trump's approval was significantly lower than overall opinions. Approval of his handling of the economy is/was generally higher than other issues, but that's about it IIRC. There was also approval of his handling the protests, that was real low; but I wouldn't be surprised if some of the disapproval was his supporters who wanted him to crack down much harder. 9 minutes ago, Maithanet said: More and more I think that a true landslide (Biden winning by double digits) is, while definitely not certain, very much a possibility. Even Biden +15 cannot be completely ruled out, and the downballot implications of a wipeout like that (in a redistricting year!) would be breathtaking. It would be amazing, though likely not quite as decisive as 2010 was for Republicans on that front. There's enough legislative races, but there's only 11 governor races this year, versus the 37 in 2010. And the only real Dem pick-up opportunities, even in an unprecedented landslide, are probably only NH, VT (which doesn't matter), and MO (and maybe they'd hold MT). The Republican governors of FL, OH, TX, and GA (plus AZ and IA, though they have nonpartisan redistricting), who all might lose in a Biden +15 world, are all locked into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 14 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Despite all of Trump's efforts otherwise, this election more and more seems like an election that is going to be about COVID above all else. It is hard to envision how Trump's handling of COVID could be much worse. He has denied it's a problem, actively mocked and thwarted efforts to reduce its spread, hosted rallies sure to foster its spread, and declared victory in the face of defeat. Normally Americans just laugh about the opinions of Europeans, but when people are like "Europe has 1/10th the cases of the US and are reopening safely" whereas we're descending to the next level of hell....it's not a good look. More and more I think that a true landslide (Biden winning by double digits) is, while definitely not certain, very much a possibility. Even Biden +15 cannot be completely ruled out, and the downballot implications of a wipeout like that (in a redistricting year!) would be breathtaking. Not sure I buy Biden +15, but if he hits double digits it will be a wave election. Also, to your first point, I largely agree, and you can throw in his gutting of Obama's pandemic preparedness programs. Trump has literally done everything wrong at every step of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, Fez said: Approval of his handling of the economy is/was generally higher than other issues, but that's about it IIRC. Trump's approval on issues outside of the economy have always been under his base support. That's the point. Here's one that, surprise surprise, he's just as maligned when it comes to racial issues. I don't see how covid changes peoples' mindsets. There is a substantial percentage that disagrees with almost all of what Trump has done, but will vote for him anyway. Even with the pandemic, the only way that changes is if you shift their attitudes on the economy. I don't think that's happening based on where we are now, but sure it could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, Fez said: It would be amazing, though likely not quite as decisive as 2010 was for Republicans on that front. There's enough legislative races, but there's only 11 governor races this year, versus the 37 in 2010. And the only real Dem pick-up opportunities, even in an unprecedented landslide, are probably only NH, VT (which doesn't matter), and MO (and maybe they'd hold MT). The Republican governors of FL, OH, TX, and GA (plus AZ and IA, though they have nonpartisan redistricting), who all might lose in a Biden +15 world, are all locked into place. Sort of. You are right that there's no way that TX, FL, etc could become democratic gerrymanders. But if they could take away the trifectas in FL, OH, TX, AZ, and GA, as well as establish trifectas in PA and NC, that would be a huge. All those together could be the difference of 20 House seats that are competitive instead of R+15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 9 minutes ago, DMC said: Trump's approval on issues outside of the economy have always been under his base support. That's the point. Here's one that, surprise surprise, he's just as maligned when it comes to racial issues. I don't see how covid changes peoples' mindsets. There is a substantial percentage that disagrees with almost all of what Trump has done, but will vote for him anyway. Even with the pandemic, the only way that changes is if you shift their attitudes on the economy. I don't think that's happening based on where we are now, but sure it could change. I said years ago that the only way Trump's base would leave him is if either the economy collapses or a catastrophe happens and it's clearly his fault. Well shit, we have both and they are still standing by their man. Guess I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Maithanet said: But if they could take away the trifectas in FL, OH, TX, AZ, and GA, as well as establish trifectas in PA and NC, that would be a huge. This is not a concern in 3 of the 7 states cited. Pennsylvania and Ohio have changed their redistricting rules, and Arizona was one of the first to adopt an independent commission. The other four...yeah. They, perhaps unsurprisingly, are always the biggest fucks when it comes to gerrymandering. 7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Guess I was wrong. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Since this is the part of the program where we fret about all the ways Biden can lose, I want to bring up the Norpoth model which claims Trump has a 91% chance of winning the election with 362 EV. He isnt a crackpot by any means (professor at Stony Brook I believe, but as far as I can tell his model totally disregards polls and is actually based on primary voting. Anyway, the claim is that it was correct for 5 out of the last 6 elections, and is given credit for the 2016 results, but I believe it will be wrong this time around. His idea is weakness for Biden in the primaries translates to weakness in the general not captured by polls. Someone (a professional) should (or may be already doing so) write a rebuttal of his model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Since this is the part of the program where we fret about all the ways Biden can lose, I want to bring up the Norpoth model which claims Trump has a 91% chance of winning the election with 362 EV. He isnt a crackpot by any means (professor at Stony Brook I believe, but as far as I can tell his model totally disregards polls and is actually based on primary voting. Anyway, the claim is that it was correct for 5 out of the last 6 elections Conventional wisdom was correct on 5 of the last 6 elections, so that doesn't particularly impress me. And building a model based entirely on primary voting sounds extremely questionable. I feel very comfortable disregarding that - no rebuttal necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 4 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: I want to bring up the Norpoth model which claims Trump has a 91% chance of winning the election with 362 EV. In terms of academia or any type of statistical rigor the guy's ancient. Googling though...yep, same age as Biden, ugh. Anyway, his "percentages" are based on what he wants to publicize, as is his "model." He does not use anything close to what would be considered valid methodology for that past, oh, twenty years at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Thats sort of my take too. I suspect he is of a somewhat conservative bent and is using his model to wrangle appearances on conservative shows (I think he went on a couple Fox News ones). One of the more recent troubling trends in academia where the more 'out there' results get the most publicity, albeit in this case through a partisan lens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 I saw a story reviewing ad campaigns of Republicans that everyone is being very careful not to mention the word ‘Trump’ in their ads. I also meant to mention the fact last week that for the third or fourth month in a row Biden raised more money than the Trump campaign. I remember a few people here were sure he wouldn’t be able to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted July 10, 2020 Share Posted July 10, 2020 Funny thing, I am getting ads for Trump on this forum. It's Donald J. Trump for President, Inc, so I assume that's a Super PAC not the actual campaign. They show a picture of Obama with the tagline "say no to the past". Gotta say, that is pretty damn weak. If the Trump campaign is relying on lingering hatred and fear of President Obama to appeal to swing voters, they are in for a very rough election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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