Kalbear Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Thought this was interesting - how to deal with Trump who is actually leaving?https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/how-defend-us-against-lame-duck-trump/616774/ Quote After his presidency, Trump will face a large number of legal hazards. Most of them involve state law, but some will be federal, especially credible allegations of tax fraud. Trump has asserted a right to pardon himself. Many legal scholars disagree. But the question has never been tested in court over the long history of the U.S. presidency, and who knows what a John Roberts–led Supreme Court majority reinforced by Amy Coney Barrett will think of the matter? Trump seems likely to try the pardon—and in doing so might plunge the nation into convulsion. Making things more complicated is the uncertainty about what a president can pardon for. The IRS has the power to forgive all or part of a taxpayer’s liability. Can a president direct the IRS to forgive his own debt? That question has never arisen. It may arise now. Quote After his bankruptcies in the late 1980s, Trump extolled his “art of the comeback” in a 1997 book. Nearing age 75, and after repudiation at the polls, he is unlikely to have any comeback awaiting him. But he can at least work for the gratification of his vindictiveness, inflicting a final act of retaliation against the nation he will now hate, just as a narcissist always hates those who escape his domination and control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, Kalibear said: Thought this was interesting - how to deal with Trump who is actually leaving? The second quote is exactly what I'd put money on if I was a betting man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 20 minutes ago, DMC said: Yeah file this under completely unsurprising. This is another facet of the difference in Trump's incumbency when compared to 2016 that underscores why the two cycles are so different. It's hard to even conceive of anything like the Comey letter having that much of an eleventh hour effect on the race. The only thing that I think could possibly substantially move the needle like that at this point is if Biden got covid or some other serious health emergency. If Barr put out an arrest warrant for Biden, the way Trump apparently wants him to, I think that'd move the needle. Though I think probably in Biden's direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, Fez said: Though I think probably in Biden's direction. Heh, yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 I know Trump is not able to think of it himself -- but surely his family and close advisors can figure out that it would be better for him to resign on January 18 and have a 2-day President Pence pardon him. That would make lots of people very angry, but there wouldn't be any question about the legality of Pence doing that. And it would be a better way for Trump to avoid having to attend Biden's inauguration, which he of course would not want to do, than not showing up for it as the outgoing President. I do think this could be presented to him in a way he would agree to do things that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 1 minute ago, Ormond said: I know Trump is not able to think of it himself -- but surely his family and close advisors can figure out that it would be better for him to resign on January 18 and have a 2-day President Pence pardon him. That would make lots of people very angry, but there wouldn't be any question about the legality of Pence doing that. And it would be a better way for Trump to avoid having to attend Biden's inauguration, which he of course would not want to do, than not showing up for it as the outgoing President. I do think this could be presented to him in a way he would agree to do things that way. I'd be surprised if Pence was willing to go along with that though. He's going to run in 2024 and I doubt he'd want that kind of controversy hanging over his head. It wouldn't enamor him any closer to Trump believers either; it might even upset them ("What's he issuing a pardon for? Trump did nothing wrong!") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Fez said: I'd be surprised if Pence was willing to go along with that though. He's going to run in 2024 and I doubt he'd want that kind of controversy hanging over his head. It wouldn't enamor him any closer to Trump believers either; it might even upset them ("What's he issuing a pardon for? Trump did nothing wrong!") I don't think the majority of his supporters would react to Trump pardoning himself with the idea that showed that he had done "something wrong". They would be easily convinced it was something Trump had to do to stop the incipient persecution he would get from an evil Biden administration. So I think they could quite easily be convinced to see Pence pardoning Trump in the same way, as an actual noble thing for Pence to do to thwart the evil Democrats. I do think it might make Pence more likely to lose the general election if he did get the Republican nomination, and perhaps that would figure into his calculations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 I agree with Fez on the Trump resigning/Pence pardoning gambit. Pence has no incentive to do this. We're assuming the conditions are Trump has already lost and is willing to concede. In that case he has no leverage to convince Pence to risk his own political future for Trump's security. However damaging Ford's pardon of Nixon was to his 76 chances, Ford did have an incentive because the alternative was the potential for prosecutions to commence against Nixon while he was running for his own term as president - while Ford was the sitting president. The conditions are very different here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/991/attachments/original/1603117915/RSTP_PA_'20_Oct_Press_Report.pdf?1603117915 Now this interesting given they’re extremely Pro-Trump. Its still within the margin of error but this is the second poll that showed Biden ahead in Pennsylvania—albeit on only 2 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 There is an Ipsos poll that shows Biden up 'only' +4, so perhaps the polls in PA are tightening (or rather, the 538 average of 6.7 is lagging a bit behind recent polls). Would like to see some high quality polls like Siena, Monmouth or Emerson out of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 55 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: Not quite politics, but related, since Jeff Toobin is CNN’s Legal Expert. Or maybe, “was”. Does anyone know details on the Zoom Dick Incident? Was he merely partially undressed and got up without pants on, or was he jerking off? He was jerking off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 26 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: There is an Ipsos poll that shows Biden up 'only' +4, so perhaps the polls in PA are tightening (or rather, the 538 average of 6.7 is lagging a bit behind recent polls). Would like to see some high quality polls like Siena, Monmouth or Emerson out of there. I saw those polls. I predict—which I recognize is a pretty lukewarm prediction to make—that the polls in Pennsylvania will tighten to Margins close to the ones we saw in 2016. Just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 What happened with Toobin is a technology-caused tragedy. This is the dark side of Zoom -- it's so easy to unknowingly have one's web cam still on. You've minimized, but not realized it was still on. The guy wasn't trying to expose himself to the world. He though he was in the privacy of his home doing what evidently guys do a lot -- and he's got the right. He just didn't realize the camera was still operational. This is just awful. Can we even imagine what he's going through? Course if had been tRump, it wouldn't be no thang, right? Though probably he'd have even more difficulty 'doin' it' than Homelander? Also even if Pence pardons him for his crimes a lot of his crimes were committed in NY and date from prior to 2016 which Pence can't do anything about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Zorral said: Also even if Pence pardons him for his crimes a lot of his crimes were committed in NY and date from prior to 2016 which Pence can't do anything about. Yes, but Trump can't pardon himself for non-federal crimes either, so that's irrelevant to deciding which way Trump and Pence would go on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaston de Foix Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Just now, Zorral said: What happened with Toobin is a technology-caused tragedy. This is the dark side of Zoom -- it's so easy to unknowingly have one's web cam still on. You've minimized, but not realized it was still on. The guy wasn't trying to expose himself to the world. He though he was in the privacy of his home doing what evidently guys do a lot -- and he's got the right. He just didn't realize the camera was still operational. This is just awful. Can we even imagine what he's going through? Course if had been tRump, it wouldn't be no thang, right? Though probably he'd have even more difficulty 'doin' it' than Homelander? Also even if Pence pardons him for his crimes a lot of his crimes were committed in NY and date from prior to 2016 which Pence can't do anything about. It must be mortifying for him and his family. Also, he apparently has a love child as a result of an extramarital affair. My somewhat cynical view is that these things happen when you constantly take risks, including by mixing work and 'recreational' activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castellan Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said: It must be mortifying for him and his family. Also, he apparently has a love child as a result of an extramarital affair. My somewhat cynical view is that these things happen when you constantly take risks, including by mixing work and 'recreational' activities. Then again, COVID is making people mix their personal and work time....I saw a little exchange on morning TV where the female host was outraged at someone having remarked that there was no need to shower in the morning since they were not going to work, the male host looked genuinely stumped and said "why would you shower if you're not going to work?" which set her off again. Also, people are mostly apparently enjoying work from home, online sales of 'proper' clothes has sunk while 'activewear' had a sharp increase. Wanking on a zoom call seems but a small jump from general slobbery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: He does not “have the right” to jack off in a meeting. He was at home and the meeting was finished. Or so I understood. Not that I even knew about this until Partner drew it to my attention, so maybe Partner and I are wrong in our understanding? Another hazard of the working-from-home situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaston de Foix Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Good, but flawed, piece from Charles Fried: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/opinion/biden-supreme-court.html The only flaw is timing: The 6-3 SC will be careful so long as the Dems control both Houses of Congress. The Dems need to pre-empt the Court while they control the levers of power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 Whatever your professional ethics of zoom meetings, can we all just hope Toobin does not book a ticket to San Diego? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorral Posted October 19, 2020 Share Posted October 19, 2020 4 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: I am sure we shall find out more in the coming days.... I had read it happened “during the meeting” and he did not realize his camera/sound were on. ETA - yes, it appears it was “during the meeting” from the original Vice report. I just saw this. Trust to Gothamist to get to the root of all matters NYC based. Or at least as far as it can be got at, at this time, it seems. But whatever -- it is all very very very icky to even think about, so I am so finished with it! https://www.vice.com/en/article/epdgm4/new-yorker-suspends-jeffrey-toobin-for-zoom-dick-incident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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