B+A=J almost makes sense

[kissdbyfire]

Nope, Martin was talking about timelines and distances and such. 
 

The reason I am never specific about dates and distances is precisely so that people won't sit down and do this sort of thing.

My suggestion would be to put away the ruler and the stopwatch, and just enjoy the story.

And no, no one would believe Jon was younger than Robb, regardless of whether he is or not, if their age difference was more than a couple of months. 

[Mourning Star]

35 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

And no, no one would believe Jon was younger than Robb, regardless of whether he is or not, if their age difference was more than a couple of months. 

I don't think anyone but Cat ever suggests Jon is younger than Rob, that is the point I was trying to make. It's clear Harwin thinks, and the rumor at Winterfell is, that Jon is significantly older than Rob. Let alone the rumors of the Fisherman's daughter.

Quote

"I am almost a man grown," Jon protested. "I will turn fifteen on my next name day, and Maester Luwin says bastards grow up faster than other children."
"That's true enough," Benjen said with a downward twist of his mouth. He took Jon's cup from the table, filled it fresh from a nearby pitcher, and drank down a long swallow.

A Game of Thrones - Jon I

I think GRRM has said that same phrase at other times (put down the stopwatch...), but it doesn't really matter, thank you for the reference.

[lehutin]

5 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

It would make sense for Ned to hide who he is, given the messy succession implications that would follow, and the schemers trying to put him in charge at Winterfell, not to mention claiming him as his to hide his brother's dishonor is a very Ned thing to do, like when he takes responsability for Cat kidnapping Tyrion.

I've never gotten the "messy succession implications" of B+A=J (bastard). Catelyn herself says in ASOS:

Quote

 

“A bastard cannot inherit.”

“Not unless he’s legitimized by a royal decree,” said Robb. “There is more precedent for that than for releasing a Sworn Brother from his oath.”

 

If Jon is a bastard, it doesn't matter if he's the eldest or only son of Brandon Stark. He is not a Stark and cannot inherit Winterfell.

 

Now, if it's B+A=J (trueborn), then that opens up multiple cans of tinfoilworms.

[kissdbyfire]

40 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I don't think anyone but Cat ever suggests Jon is younger than Rob, that is the point I was trying to make. It's clear Harwin thinks, and the rumor at Winterfell is, that Jon is significantly older than Rob. Let alone the rumors of the Fisherman's daughter.

  Quote

No, Robb is seen as being older than Jon. It's possible he isn't, but it doesn't matter. In universe the official story is, Robb is older.

 

AGoT, Eddard II

"Wylla. Yes." The king grinned. "She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like …"

Ned's mouth tightened in anger. "Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men."

"Gods have mercy, you scarcely knew Catelyn."

"I had taken her to wife. She was carrying my child."

 

[Mourning Star]

14 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

 

No, Robb is seen as being older than Jon. It's possible he isn't, but it doesn't matter. In universe the official story is, Robb is older.

 

AGoT, Eddard II

"Wylla. Yes." The king grinned. "She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like …"

Ned's mouth tightened in anger. "Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men."

"Gods have mercy, you scarcely knew Catelyn."

"I had taken her to wife. She was carrying my child."

 

When Ned claimed to have a bastard Cat was already pregnant... that was his dishonor... we know that. Or are you suggesting Ned actually is Jon's father?!?!?!

I think this is usually considered to be part of Ned's lie about Jon, not that he actually had Jon with Wylla... finding nine months between Ned at Starfall and his return to Winterfell seems like even more of an impossible stretch for the timeline.

[CamiloRP]

2 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Actually, Ned and Ashara could have happened after the war started. For instance, some propose that Ashara is the fisherman’s daughter. Mind you, I don’t believe it myself, but others do. There’s also the fact that Martin said Ashara wasn’t nailed to the floor during the war, and that’s also used to support N+A=J, because she could have met him during the war and conceived Jon. And while these could work irt the timeline and Jon’s age, unlike B+A=J, there’s simply no proper evidence for it as there is for R+L=J. That’s why IMO it’s a red herring. At any rate, all these options are “possible” only because we don’t yet have enough information to state beyond any doubt that they’re impossible. Not a very compelling argument to support a theory imo. 

I wasn't aware of the bold part, and yes, it makes sense. I also don't buy N+A=J or B+A=J, I was pointing out that it wouldn't be impossible based solely on the timeline.

[kissdbyfire]

9 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

When Ned claimed to have a bastard Cat was already pregnant... that was his dishonor... we know that. Or are you suggesting Ned actually is Jon's father?!?!?!

I think this is usually considered to be part of Ned's lie about Jon, not that he actually had Jon with Wylla... finding nine months between Ned at Starfall and his return to Winterfell seems like even more of an impossible stretch for the timeline.

So, you're saying that Ned Stark considers admitting to having a bastard a dishonour, not the actual fathering of a bastard? Ned is the type of bloke who thinks it's dishonourable to be caught doing something wrong, not actually doing something wrong? 

And no, of course I'm not suggesting he is Jon's biological father. But his made up story must add up, no? 

[The Commentator]

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think the problem with this theory is that Ned doesn't have a good enough justification to lie to Jon, his wife, his king, and make a false affirmation of Jon, just because the problem that a Brandon bastard may have for a Winterfell succession.  And Lordlings having bastards isn't that big a stain on the family honor.  It seems to happen often and in many of the major families.  It's just not that big of a deal.

I think for Ned to tell this big of a lie and keep it from everyone, it has to be a major issue.  For me, it still comes down to only two possible scenarios.  Either Rhaegar and Lyanna or Brandon and Lyanna.  Those are the two scenarios that would cause Ned to believe that lying to Jon about his true paternage would actually help Jon.

M + L = J is a good cause to lie.  I mean, the Stark daughter and a man sworn to the NW.  It's still a scandal even if Lyanna hid the identity of the father.  Any crow is a scandal.  Besides, anything other than a rape is a scandal because Lyanna and the family made a promise to Robert.  The friendship between wolf and stag was at stake.  The honor of the wolves were at stake. 

 

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

M + L = J is a good cause to lie.  I mean, the Stark daughter and a man sworn to the NW.  It's still a scandal even if Lyanna hid the identity of the father.  Any crow is a scandal.  Besides, anything other than a rape is a scandal because Lyanna and the family made a promise to Robert.  The friendship between wolf and stag was at stake.  The honor of the wolves were at stake. 

 

I would love nothing more than have Jon being Mance's son, instead of an inbred master race type. 

But how do you explain the secrecy, Ned not telling anyone, not even Cat? There are loads more issues as well, like the complete lack of textual support, hints, etc. 

[Mourning Star]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

So, you're saying that Ned Stark considers admitting to having a bastard a dishonour, not the actual fathering of a bastard? Ned is the type of bloke who thinks it's dishonourable to be caught doing something wrong, not actually doing something wrong? 

And no, of course I'm not suggesting he is Jon's biological father. But his made up story must add up, no? 

Then I'm confused by what you are trying to say.

Yes, I think Ned considers it a dishonor to himself and Cat to tell the world Jon is his son.

No, I don't think Jon is actually his son.

Ned choose love over honor. He lied to protect Lyanna's child, and presumably his promise(s) to Lyanna.

Quote

"Lannister paid them back in kind. It was no less than they deserved. I shall not trouble my sleep over it."
"You were not there," Ned said, bitterness in his voice. Troubled sleep was no stranger to him. He had lived his lies for fourteen years, yet they still haunted him at night. "There was no honor in that conquest."
"The Others take your honor!" Robert swore. "What did any Targaryen ever know of honor? Go down into your crypt and ask Lyanna about the dragon's honor!"

A Game of Thrones - Eddard II

I'm still not sure what you are suggesting. That he didn't lie to Robert? That Ned actually had a bastard?

The reason the Harwin quote is so convincing is that he has no reason to lie to Arya, and as he points out, the actors in his story are all dead.

But, he still doesn't want Arya to tell Cat about it, which is odd if the only concern was Ned silencing the rumors (Ned's dead).

Harwin even says the story might not be true (and we can be pretty sure it isn't true, although that doesn't mean there is nothing to learn from it), but it's harder for me to believe the staff of Winterfell were wildly off about Jon's age than that Cat was.

The fact is that Cat admits to not knowing, and to being distracted by newborn Rob, and to hearing about Ashara from the Winterfell staff. Harwin is simply closer to the source on this and has less vested interest in a particular outcome, which makes him more reliable in my opinion.

[corbon]

3 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Well, Cersei and Cat believe Jon is Ashara's baby, so it seems like it's not an impossibility.

Thats with Ned as the father though.

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

Personally, I think GRRM's reference to putting down the rulers and stopwatches is about the age difference between Robb and Jon.

Its explicitly about dates and distances. And contextually in terms of the movements of armies. So no, thats bullshit.

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

After all, the rumors about Ned having a bastard all have one thing in common, the child would be born far earlier than the Tower of Joy, be it to a fisherman's daughter or Ashara Dayne.

None of them put the child born earlier by more than a few months. 
The only one that affects the birthdate of the child at all is the Fisherman's daughter rumour, and thats by far the least reliable of any - its a localised rumour with no one connected to the rumour having any connection to Ned or Jon or anyone else involved after the rumour's event.
In other words its a local story connecting far away events with a past local one, but none of the locals actually know anything about the far away events.
Even if it were true, it would put Jon;s age as only 3 months r so older the Robb, which is close enough to mix the two with some possibility. Harrenhal conception is impossible.

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

The rumor, which Cat later hears and asks Ned about, is that Jon was conceived at Harrenehall. But she somehow construes it as Ned having a bastard after they were married.

There is no rumour that Jon was conceived at Harrenhal. Only that Ned and Ashara possibly fell in love at Harrenhal.

Guess what. Falling in love doesn't equal baby-conception. The two things are entirely different. 
Even the Daynes are smart enough to understand that a tryst at Harrenhal doesn't conceive a baby born 18 months or more later. But another tryst later between the same two people might.

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

It is easier for me to believe that Cat alone was just wildly off (or willfully unobservant) about Jon's age (and Jon-Robb's relative age), than that everyone else was.

It can't be Cat alone though. Its everyone who was around Jon and Robb as a baby.

1 hour ago, Mourning Star said:

I don't think anyone but Cat ever suggests Jon is younger than Rob, that is the point I was trying to make. It's clear Harwin thinks, and the rumor at Winterfell is, that Jon is significantly older than Rob. Let alone the rumors of the Fisherman's daughter.

No one in story suggests that Jon is older than Robb.
Here's what Harwin says.

Quote

"Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now." He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around. "I doubt there's any truth to it.¹ But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night², who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that³? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

1. Harwin doesn't even believe the rumour that he heard, let alone what you say.
2. Whispered words don't make a baby
3. And even more, doesn't necessarily mean a baby, made right then. And it definitely doesn't mean an unmarried pregnancy if there's 'no harm in it'. Because the maiden Ashara getting pregnant without a husband is a very great harm indeed. It basically, and literally, destroys her life.

The simple fact is that although there are some rumours of a romance between Ned and Ashara at Harrenhal, not one of those rumours place the conception of Jon at that time and place. Its simply too early for his age, by a lot. All of those rumours assume Ned and Ashara got together again later.

18 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

When Ned claimed to have a bastard Cat was already pregnant... that was his dishonor... we know that. Or are you suggesting Ned actually is Jon's father?!?!?!

Seriously? 

27 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

AGoT, Eddard II

"Wylla. Yes." The king grinned. "She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like …"

Ned's mouth tightened in anger. "Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men."

"Gods have mercy, you scarcely knew Catelyn."

"I had taken her to wife. She was carrying my child."

 

If she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honour, even for an hour.
Robert, and Ned, are talking about the conception, the fuck, the short time when never-the-boy-he was Ned supposedly forgot his honour.

The conception, not the birth, was after Ned's marriage.

18 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

I think this is usually considered to be part of Ned's lie about Jon, not that he actually had Jon with Wylla... finding nine months between Ned at Starfall and his return to Winterfell seems like even more of an impossible stretch for the timeline.

There s no need to find nine months between Ned at Starfall and his return to Winterfell. Only between Ned's Marriage to Cat and his appearance at Starfall. Which is about to as close to perfectly right as we get in GRRMs fuzzy timeline.

[corbon]

21 minutes ago, Mourning Star said:

Then I'm confused by what you are trying to say.

Yes, I think Ned considers it a dishonor to himself and Cat to tell the world Jon is his son.

I agree. He does. Because its a lie, and a hurtful one.

Its a double conversation.
Robert is speaking of the conception, Ned of the lie that the child was his bastard. Both come after his marriage to Cat.

Quote

No, I don't think Jon is actually his son.

Ned choose love over honor. He lied to protect Lyanna's child, and presumably his promise(s) to Lyanna.

Agreed. 

Quote

I'm still not sure what you are suggesting. That he didn't lie to Robert? That Ned actually had a bastard?

Ned didn't tell Robert he had a bastard - at least not in that conversation.

Robert asked for the name of a woman he was thinking of. Robert named the woman Ned's bastard's mother. Ned gave him the name. He didn't address the mother part. 
Robert talked about the conception. Ned replied with a clever double meaning - he replied about claiming he had a bastard, but he reply also fitted Robert's conversation.

We don't actually see Ned at any time claim Jon is his bastard. 
Its entirely possible he never did that either. Just et people make assumptions and treated Jon as his bastard.
We do see Ned call Jon and Robb and Brandon collectively "my sons", but by that time they truly are, whether by blood or not.
We also have Cat saying Ned brought his bastard home and called him 'son' for all to see. But that may be figurative, rather than literal.
Seems to me that Ned is actually very good at deceiving with truth, when he needs to be. 
Or maybe Ned did actually literally speak the lie at some stage, instead of just living it. Not sure it really matters. Its just worth pointing the careful facts though.

Quote

The reason the Harwin quote is so convincing is that he has no reason to lie to Arya, and as he points out, the actors in his story are all dead.

You have Harwin's quote entirely back-asswards.
First, he doesn;t actually believe it.
Second, he doesn't pinpoint Harrenhal as the conception of Jon, just as a possible romance startup.

Quote

But, he still doesn't want Arya to tell Cat about it, which is odd if the only concern was Ned silencing the rumors (Ned's dead).

First, thats not odd. Harwin honours Ned's will, even when Ned is dead. Nothing odd about that.
Second, It could cause Cat unnecessary pain and confusion. For no good reason. So why not keep it quiet? 

Quote

Harwin even says the story might not be true

He says he thinks its not true.

Quote

(and we can be pretty sure it isn't true, although that doesn't mean there is nothing to learn from it), but it's harder for me to believe the staff of Winterfell were wildly off about Jon's age than that Cat was.

They weren't. Nothing in Harwn's story says Jon was conceived at Harrenhal.

Quote

The fact is that Cat admits to not knowing, and to being distracted by newborn Rob, and to hearing about Ashara from the Winterfell staff. Harwin is simply closer to the source on this and has less vested interest in a particular outcome, which makes him more reliable in my opinion.

Agreed. But read what he actually says, not what you want him to say.

[CamiloRP]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Thats with Ned as the father though.

Yep, I thought it implied similar timelines, kissdbyfire corrected me on that.

[Khal Rhaego Targaryen]

11 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think the problem with this theory is that Ned doesn't have a good enough justification to lie to Jon, his wife, his king, and make a false affirmation of Jon, just because the problem that a Brandon bastard may have for a Winterfell succession.  And Lordlings having bastards isn't that big a stain on the family honor.  It seems to happen often and in many of the major families.  It's just not that big of a deal.

I think for Ned to tell this big of a lie and keep it from everyone, it has to be a major issue.  For me, it still comes down to only two possible scenarios.  Either Rhaegar and Lyanna or Brandon and Lyanna.  Those are the two scenarios that would cause Ned to believe that lying to Jon about his true paternage would actually help Jon.

But Ned never lied to Jon or anyone else about who the bastard's mother was. He just didn't want to talk about her. In fact, in AGOT when Ned believes he will be sent to the Wall he says he would tell Jon who his mother was.

[CamiloRP]

30 minutes ago, Khal Rhaego Targaryen said:

But Ned never lied to Jon or anyone else about who the bastard's mother was. He just didn't want to talk about her. In fact, in AGOT when Ned believes he will be sent to the Wall he says he would tell Jon who his mother was.

But if he was Brandon's son then he would be lying to Jon by calling him his

[corbon]

1 hour ago, CamiloRP said:

But if he was Brandon's son then he would be lying to Jon by calling him his

Its not certain Ned actually did verbally call Jon 'his', though he certainly treated Jon as his. And let others assume Jon was his.
The only time we hear him doing so is a generic 'my sons' after Jon has been raised as his son for 12+ years - by then Jon really is his 'son' whether by blood or no, so its not a lie even if Jon is someone else's bastard.

7 hours ago, corbon said:

We don't actually see Ned at any time claim Jon is his bastard. 
Its entirely possible he never did that either. Just et people make assumptions and treated Jon as his bastard.
We do see Ned call Jon and Robb and Brandon collectively "my sons", but by that time they truly are, whether by blood or not.
We also have Cat saying Ned brought his bastard home and called him 'son' for all to see. But that may be figurative, rather than literal.
Seems to me that Ned is actually very good at deceiving with truth, when he needs to be. 
Or maybe Ned did actually literally speak the lie at some stage, instead of just living it. Not sure it really matters. Its just worth pointing the careful facts though.

[TheLastWolf]

Jon is Ned's son in spirit if not in blood too. The End. Doesn't matter who gave 23 chromosomes.

[SFDanny]

11 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

The reason I am never specific about dates and distances is precisely so that people won't sit down and do this sort of thing.

My suggestion would be to put away the ruler and the stopwatch, and just enjoy the story.

And no, no one would believe Jon was younger than Robb, regardless of whether he is or not, if their age difference was more than a couple of months. 

Very little to do with this discussion, but to the bolded, for some reason Martin changed his mind when it comes to Fire & Blood. He actually gives us some very specific dates for events in his look back at early Targaryen history. In the main series he gave us only one such reference - the day of Joffrey and Margaery's wedding on the first day of the new year 300 AC. We can figure out some important ranges for events to fall from 298 AC through that date and beyond, but he never spells any of it out. I'm appreciative of any information he gives us, but was very surprised by the change.

To the main point, I don't have much to add that @kissdbyfire and @corbon haven't already pointed out, but I will say the timeline doesn't rule out N+A=J, but it does, as has been pointed out, rule out Brandon as Jon's father. For Ned to be Jon's father and Ashara Jon's mother we have to imagine a meeting between the two sometime during the war and after he leaves Catelyn pregnant at Riverrun. Could have happened, but we have nothing to show Ned meets her until he travels to Starfall. Too late to conceive Jon. Jon is conceived sometime in the early part of 283 AC or the last month or so of 282 AC. About the same time Robb is conceived give or take a couple of months. Brandon is long dead by this time. He and Rickard are killed in the early part of 282 AC. Jon is born sometime around the sack of King's Landing or shortly thereafter. My best guess is that Jon is slightly older than Robb and is born sometime right before - no more than a month or six weeks before - Ned finds him at the Tower of Joy. Ned then lies about Jon being younger than Robb. But then I think R+L=J is true.

[SFDanny]

2 minutes ago, TheLastWolf said:

Jon is Ned's son in spirit if not in blood too. The End. Doesn't matter who gave 23 chromosomes.

If it didn't matter who Jon's mother and father really are, then Ned wouldn't lie about it. Your point is valid as to the role Ned plays in Jon's upbringing, but it also ignores the importance of the mystery of Jon's mother's identity Martin gives us to the story he has created.

[TheLastWolf]

5 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Your point is valid as to the role Ned plays in Jon's upbringing, but it also ignores the importance of the mystery of Jon's mother's identity Martin gives us to the story he has created.

The only thing that’s crystal clear is that one of Jon’s parents is a Stark. And it’s not the paternal side since Lyanna’s existence in the story would be a waste if it that was the case. No gross incest with Ned, Brandon, Benjen or Rickard being the father pls. So ur point doesn’t make sense. If you had meant “mystery of the identity of the father”, makes more sense. Then it’s fair enough. But only consequence will be for the political scenario (the consequence/s of Jon’s paternity being revealed I mean). Father candidates are Mance, Howland and Rhaegar.  Jon will embrace his Stark/First men heritage with gusto after resurrection as that’s most convenient for him than, say, Ned and wylla (remaining a bastard I mean). And that’s what he has wanted all his life. To be a trueborn Stark.