International Events 5, "As the World Turns"

[Knight Of Winter]

@Rippounet - a question, if you would. 

Last presidential election, and maybe the next one as well, was/will be between Le Pen - a staunch right-winger, and Macron, who, if I understand correctly, is a neo-liberal populistically pandering to nationalistic voters. To my (probably limited) understanding, France has historically been more left-leaning than any other country whose politics I remotely know and follow. So how did it come to a situation like this, where possibly second election in a row will be held with no strong left-wing contenders? What causes and trends led to this?

[Tywin et al.]

Imagine what would have happen if he made the save:

 

[Zorral]

Quote

"Wild boar corner Italian woman and steal her food shopping
A group of wild boar surrounded a woman who had just come out of a supermarket near Rome and stole her shopping, rekindling a debate about the animal's presence in Italian towns and cities. A video posted on social media shows the boar pursuing the woman in a supermarket car park in the village of Le Rughe before raiding the shopping bag she is forced to drop. Italian farmers have protested in recent years about wild boar wreaking havoc on their land and causing fatal road accidents"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2021/may/14/wild-boar-corner-italian-woman-and-steal-her-food-shopping-video

 

 

[Zorral]

Quote

Greyhound Canada is permanently cutting all bus routes across the country, shutting down the intercity bus carrier's operations in Canada after nearly a century. The motor coach company said its remaining routes in Ontario, Quebec will cease at midnight Thursday.

— 570 NEWS - Kitchener (@570NEWS) May 13, 2021

[Zorral]

This is pretty interesting, particularly the photos, as this isn't what one expects from a refugee camp, right?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/15/world/middleeast/syria-solar-power-idlib.html?

Quote

"Syria’s Surprising Solar Boom: Sunlight Powers the Night in Rebel Idlib
Cut off from the power grid and with fuel costs soaring, Syrians in a poor, embattled enclave have turned en masse to solar panels to charge their phones and light their homes and tents."

....An unlikely solar revolution of sorts has taken off in an embattled, rebel-controlled pocket of northwestern Syria, where large numbers of people whose lives have been upended by the country’s 10-year-old civil war have embraced the sun’s energy simply because it is the cheapest source of electricity around.

Solar panels, big and small, old and new, are seemingly everywhere in Idlib Province along Syria’s border with Turkey, rigged up in twos and threes on the roofs and balconies of apartment buildings, perched atop refugee tents and mounted near farms and factories on huge platforms that rotate to follow the sun across the sky....

....Many in the West view solar panels as a sign of affluence, and wealthy countries like the United States have invested billions of dollars to promote alternative energy.

But the solar boom in northwestern Syria is unrelated to fears of climate change or a desire to reduce a carbon footprint. It is the only viable option for many in a region where the government has cut the power and where imported fuel for private generators is far beyond most people’s means.

“There is no alternative,” said Akram Abbas, a solar panel importer in the town of al-Dana. “Solar energy is a blessing from God.....

 

[Rippounet]

On 5/12/2021 at 10:54 PM, Knight Of Winter said:

@Rippounet - a question, if you would. 

Last presidential election, and maybe the next one as well, was/will be between Le Pen - a staunch right-winger, and Macron, who, if I understand correctly, is a neo-liberal populistically pandering to nationalistic voters. To my (probably limited) understanding, France has historically been more left-leaning than any other country whose politics I remotely know and follow. So how did it come to a situation like this, where possibly second election in a row will be held with no strong left-wing contenders? What causes and trends led to this?

The most honest answer is that I do not know. I wish I did, but I am not sure.

There are some elements I can give you though.

- The Socialist Party betrayed the left.
The Socialist Party had been flirting with economic liberalism for some time but openly embraced it under Hollande (with Macron as finance minister). That sunk the Socialist Party, with Hollande not even seeking re-election and Macron kind of taking his place as a "center-left" figure.
- Macron tricked people into thinking he was a centrist.
Since Macron had been finance minister under a "Socialist" president, it was widely assumed by many that he was center-left. Another way to say it is that not everyone bothered to check his record as finance minister, others were in favor of centrism, and many more were tricked by his campaign (I remember the "neither neither" slogan for "neither right, neither left") and by the media.
- The French media is highly partisan (pro-Macron).
The French media is one of the most concentrated in the Western world. For instance, 10 billionaires control 90% of daily newspapers, and about 30 control around 90% of all media.
This excellent map from Le Monde Diplomatique is a nice visual if you're interested.
The consequence of that is that the media is pushing hard for economic liberalism (what they call "reforms"), very often spewing pro-business facts or "studies" that have been debunked a decade or more ago. For instance, the current finance minister has been advocating for Reagan-style supply-side policies and "trickle-down" policies (Biden's recent declaration on the topic has embarassed the French government) without anyone bothering to contradict him to his face.
The media helped Macron build a party in 2017, and is now doing everything they can to present him as the only alternative to Le Pen.
- People don't trust Mélenchon (or his party)
"Unsubmissive France" (La France Insoumise), which is now the main left-wing party, had (and still has) an excellent manifesto, but it's perceived as a far-left party (Breitbart even calls it "communist") because most people don't bother actually reading manifestos. In fact, it proposes a relatively mild green transition through neo-keynesianism and has received praise from many prominent heterodox economists. Just for fun, here's a few names:

Quote

Ha-Joon Chang (University of Cambridge), Giovanni Dosi (Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna in Pisa),  Ben Fine, (School of Oriental and African Studies, Steve Keen (Kingston University), Dany Lang  (Université Paris 13), Marc Lavoie (Université Paris 13), Stephen Marglin (Harvard University), Mark Setterfield (New School for Social Research, New York), Anwar Shaikh (New School for Social Research, New York), Robert Skidelsky (Warwick University), Engelbert Stockhammer (Kingston University), Matias Vernengo (Bucknell University). 

But Mélenchon is a controversial figure (think Jeremy Corbyn with a temper), and the media never misses an opportunity to present him and his party as radicals (and now "Islamo-leftists," because they keep criticizing islamophobia).
- Abstention is high.
Abstention is not only high (22% in the first round, 25% in the second round) and -like in most Western countries- affects left-wing voters disproportionately.
- The EU complicates things.
Most people think the EU means we can't have true left-wing policies. That's not exactly true, but many believe that France can only go back to its traditional socialist policies outside the EU. Generally speaking, left-wing radicals tend to be eurospectics as well.
- People are tired of fighting and losing.
The first neo-liberal offensive started in the 1990s, with Chirac already betraying some of his campaign promises (though he was right-wing). Since then the assaults have been relentless and victories only temporary.
This is the reason why there have been so many strikes in the last 30 years: unions did their best, but lost most of their fights. Many who understand what has happened no longer think strategically, and it's not uncommon for people to see the far-right as a viable alternative. Another way to put it is that people think the far-right is not neo-liberal at least.
They're wrong, but that doesn't help the fact that many are willing to give up and give Le Pen a shot. Some are even foolish enough to see the far-right as a decent punishment for the establishment and the elite...

Hope this helps.

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Another way to put it is that people think the far-right is not neo-liberal at least.

Hmm this part reminded of this snippet of Glenn greenwald saying various far-right figures are totes socialists.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kareemrifai/status/1367485721439830016?lang=en

Because liberal bad.

[Knight Of Winter]

13 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Hope this helps.

It definitely does and thanks for comprehensive answer. Much obliged  

[Winterfell is Burning]

18 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Hmm this part reminded of this snippet of Glenn greenwald saying various far-right figures are totes socialists.

https://mobile.twitter.com/kareemrifai/status/1367485721439830016?lang=en

Because liberal bad.

That  is surprising- it's 2021 and people still pay attention to what Greenwald says? 

[Heartofice]

I mean it was called the national socialist party

[Varysblackfyre321]

30 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

I mean it was called the national socialist party

True and then they killed the socialists especially amongst their own party because fascist. 
Socialist was a useful label to appeal to the German working-class.

Hey I may disagree with them on the racism and sexism parts, but at least they’re occasionally hitting the right class based talking based talking points.

It is still sad to members of the left still fall for the same disparate attacks on liberalism as key reasons to ally with the far right or 

Though liberals often do the same to quash leftist sentiments lol.

58 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

That  is surprising- it's 2021 and people still pay attention to what Greenwald says? 

Unfortunately, yes. He’s a useful idiot.  Bannon and Carlson would happily trade off any worker’s protections if it meant forcing women back into the domestic roles and a cap/lessening on non-white people in the US. Greenwald helps leftists forget about that.

[IheartIheartTesla]

There is a big cyclone about to hit the Indian state of Gujrat soon, having already passed through Mumbai. Its a bit unusual for cyclones to reach the west coast of India, as they usually end up in the Bay of Bengal on the eastern side. For instance, I always remember the 2nd week of June as when the monsoons hit Mumbai growing up, and I cant really remember ever seeing rain in May let alone a cyclone.

Both Mumbai and Gujrat have suspended Covid vaccinations as a result of this, which makes the situation doubly unfortunate (essentially a cat 3 hurricane based on wind speeds of ~130 mph)

[TheLastWolf]

8 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

There is a big cyclone about to hit the Indian state of Gujrat soon, having already passed through Mumbai. Its a bit unusual for cyclones to reach the west coast of India, as they usually end up in the Bay of Bengal on the eastern side. For instance, I always remember the 2nd week of June as when the monsoons hit Mumbai growing up, and I cant really remember ever seeing rain in May let alone a cyclone.

Both Mumbai and Gujrat have suspended Covid vaccinations as a result of this, which makes the situation doubly unfortunate (essentially a cat 3 hurricane based on wind speeds of ~130 mph)

Modi and Shah... 

Their election misdemeanors, paying now 

Some dark humor, good for population control 

[Zorral]

This is interesting news:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/18/a-new-chile-political-elite-rejected-in-vote-for-constitutional-assembly

Quote

 

"‘A new Chile’: political elite rejected in vote for constitutional assembly
Victories for leftist and independent candidates over rightwingers paves the way for a long-awaited progressive settlement"

Chile’s established political elite has been roundly rejected at the polls six months ahead of a pivotal presidential election, as the country turned to a progressive new generation to write the next chapter in its history.

Resounding victories for leftist and independent candidates saw rightwing politicians crash to dismal electoral defeats alongside those with links to Chile’s transition to democracy.

‘A game-changing moment’: Chile constitution could set new gender equality standard
Read more
Across two days of voting, Chileans cast votes for the 155 delegates who will write a new constitution to replace Augusto Pinochet’s 1980 document and the neoliberal model it enshrined.

People also voted for regional governors for the first time ever, as well as for councillors and mayors – with candidates backed by president Sebastián Piñera’s Chile Vamos coalition faring poorly in each case....

 

 

[Winterfell is Burning]

Ah, to live in a country where independents can run and win most seats...

[Winterfell is Burning]

Today is set to be a very bad day for Jair Bolsonaro (which is good news for, well, most of humanity) and it's not even 9:30 am in Brasília yet:

First, his Environment minister/main henchman in destroying all environmental protection (Ricardo Salles) woke up with the police at his house to search for documents related to  corruption and smuggling of wood exports, and several of the staff working for him has been removed from their posts by court order. This is related to a decision by some agencies subordinated to Salles that essentially gave a free pass to wood illegally removed from the Amazon to be exported. Even many allies were demanding Salles to be removed before this, so pressure will increase.

Second, despite his efforts early on to sabotage or to cast doubt about vaccinations, a poll indicated that 92% of Brazilians either already vaccinated or intends to do so.

Third, today his former health minister during most of the pandemic, Eduardo Pazuello (a general with no background in the area), will depose in a congressional investigation dominated by the opposition. It`s unclear whether he will fall on his sword or not (most bet he will), but yesterday Bolsonaro's former Foreign Minister threw both him and Pazuello under the bus.

[Zorral]

On 5/19/2021 at 8:23 AM, Winterfell is Burning said:

yesterday Bolsonaro's former Foreign Minister threw both him and Pazuello under the bus.

Will the military continue backing him?

 

[Winterfell is Burning]

43 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Will the military continue backing him?

 

He has his supporters, but not really as much as he claims, or he probably thought. In the 30th of March, the commanders of the 3 forces resigned together due to attempts of interference and politicization of the Armed Forces (particularly the Army, where he comes from), and he was basically strong-armed to pick replacements he didn't particularly like or wanted, specially in the Army. 

Basically, Bolsonaro was always seen with contempt by the military command, but he expected that to change as he reached the presidency and the senior generals are his contemporaries in the army and he put many in the government, but it hasn't really- the generals he picked for the government either left or are mostly not as respected. anymore. It doesn't seem to have much more of a chance of a coup or something in the likes than there was with Trump (also, there's no certification process by Congress or something like that), specially because Bolsonaro doesn't have a large political party behind him.

Also, while polls in Brazil are even more unreliable than in the US, and seem to have a tendency to overrate left-wing candidates support (my theory is that the country being too big-bigger than the contiguous US- and with urban pockets completely run by crime, it's harder to poll places that tend to be more conservative and/or more pro-law and order candidates), many, if not most pundits and politicians are predicting he won't even make to the 2nd round of voting in 2022.

[Zorral]

Thank you.  Wish him gone, Gone, GONE. Arrested and tried and convicted of crimes against humanity, along with a buncha others, many of them from right here in the USA.

 

[Winterfell is Burning]

So am I. Some pundits think he has a very big chance of going to jail for a long time after he leaves, unlike most big name politicians in Brazil, that either don't go or are out of jail after a couple of years because the Supreme Court either allows them to leave on a technicality without saying they are innocent, because they clearly are not (which is what happened with Lula recently) or changes it's interpretation of the Constitution to allow them to appeal until the process ends, even if take decades. 

The difference is that Bolsonaro was really a fringe player in politics before becoming president, so he doesn't have many friends in high places and really doesn't have a lot to offer in a plea bargain against other big players. Plus, it's crimes in the pandemic would be too big to sweep under the rug.