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Why I think (f)Aegon has the blood to ride a Targaryen dragon.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is the complete change of Varys' demeanor when he talks to Tyrion about his castration. He is asked about that earlier and then he refuses to talk about it. Later he himself brings it up again and he drops all pretense when talking to Tyrion. He voice gets deeper and all the false effeminate behavior is gone.

So either he is telling the truth or is a good actor.    Why rule out the second possibility?  And Tyrion did not wring this story out of him on the torture rack.  Varys CHOSE to tell this story.  Playing hard to get with the info may just be a trick.  And you're assuming his "false effeminate" behavior is false, and that his "sincere" behavior is true.   Maybe, but maybe not.  Seems to me that he would be saving a bit of energy by saving his virtuoso performances for special occasions.  Maybe, just maybe, the way he usually acts comes just a little bit more natural for him.

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And we see this kind of thing happening again in the Epilogue when he talks to Kevan about Aegon.

He deepens his voice just as he gives a little dramatic speech.  Not necessarily lying, but maybe a little theatrical.  And then he becomes more natural again, and compares himself to a "silly old woman".  Seems to me you could read this either way.

Edited by Mister Smikes

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Posted (edited)

I think the tragedy of Aegon is that he will actually be who he claims he is, he will be able to ride a Dragon though I doubt he ever will be given a chance, he will probably take Iron Throne and be a good ruler for a short period before Daenarys shows up, burns him and the city, spurred on by the mummers dragon part of the prophecy to believe him false. And in the end it will be shown that the dragon itself is a not a mummer, but that it was hidden by a mummer (Ned Stark) and Jon will kill her. 

 

There is no reason for Illyrio or Varys to lie about who Aegon is, after the failure that Baratheons and Targaryens were the people would probably welcome Blackfyres at that point. Nor is there a reason for Varys to lie to people he kills, who will never be able to tell the truth anyway. 

Edited by Hrulj

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3 hours ago, Hrulj said:

There is no reason for Illyrio or Varys to lie about who Aegon is, after the failure that Baratheons and Targaryens were the people would probably welcome Blackfyres at that point. Nor is there a reason for Varys to lie to people he kills, who will never be able to tell the truth anyway. 

The reason to lie about Aegon's identity would be if they have no real goods; if there was no child from Pisswater and Elia's little boy did die, then Varys could not go back in time to get him, and the only way to have an 'Aegon' was to procure a living babe at breast.

Whatever the provenance of the child, his current name is Aegon, and he is coming to take the Iron Throne. So what Varys said to Kevan was the truth as he sees it.

Nobody cares about Blackfryres now. Not even the Golden Company cares - the meeting of their captains showed that descendents of the original exiles are outnumbered by more recent exiles and Essosi officers. They have the usual sellsword motives of wanting to go home / get revenge / profit.

 

If the Westerosi at large where to hear of a Blackfyre Pretender, they would probably just be frustrated that yet another faction was getting involved, prolonging the war. One of the advantages of Aegon is that he is making his claim in the Targaryen name, so his supporters assume he will be able to ally with Dany as a single Targaryen faction.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Lemore is "over 40"; so is Mellario.

Based on Tyrion's estimations. Don't mistake me, I think he's right, but if we agree on this point then you have to agree on the fact that fAegon is younger than Quentyn, who has the same age as Aegon son of Rhaegar. Besides we don't have physical description of Mellario, Lemore didn't shave her head as stated by @Jaenara Belarys... Sorry, but your theory is a huge crackpot that contradicts everything we know about the characters involved in it, you should'nt be so arrogant with such arguments.

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Posted (edited)
14 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

You can think of the Targaryen line at the time of the Rebellion as a line that really started by Viserys II, who could neither hatch nor ride a dragon, and the daughter of a Lynesse banker.  Not one member of that line was successful at hatching a dragon.  Until Danaerys.  Of course assuming that Danaerys was truly of that line…

The Targaryen line was only a paternal one only consisting of “legitimate” children.  It was a line that had as much Rhoynish blood as Valyrian blood.  

Well there are a few things here. First is that while it is true that "Targaryen" is only the legitimately born male line, it is also true that those males often married women who may easily have been carriers of the female line, which would have brought it back in to the family tree. Some of those marriages of course happened after Viserys I.

I too have some outstanding questions regarding whether Daenerys is who she believes herself to be but even if she is, I don't at all doubt that she is fully dragonblooded in the sense that effectively matters for the theme of this thread. Clearly she hatched 3 dragons and rode one and looks every inch a dragonlord.

As for as much Rhoynish as Valyrian, I would say that is a stretch. There were only two male Targaryen- female Martell marriages, and the Martell line is no more than half Rhoynish, probably much less. Dorne had older families predating the Rhoynish arrival.

Edited by Hippocras

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Based on Tyrion's estimations. Don't mistake me, I think he's right, but if we agree on this point then you have to agree on the fact that fAegon is younger than Quentyn, who has the same age as Aegon son of Rhaegar.

Actually, no.  I can claim (as I do) that evidence has SOME weight, without claiming that evidence is absolute.  In this case, I have not claimed that any of my evidence is absolute.  I have said that my theory is only a theory, and that anyone who wants absolute proof must wait for the books to come out.  I never suggested that Tyrion's estimate, or any other inference I make, could not possibly be wrong.

Secondly, there is a distinction between estimating that a person IS a certain age, and that they are OVER a certain age.  It is far more easy to do the latter reliably, than the former.

Thirdly, if I MUST conclude that Tyrion's age estimates are 100% accurate, I must conclude that Jon Snow was only 12 in AGOT.  Which pretty much rules out R+L=J, N=A=J, N+W=J, or any other popular or unpopular theory regarding Jon's parentage.  

Fourthly, Tyrion revises his own estimate.  Tyrion concludes that Young Griff, is Aegon which essentially means that Tyrion decides that fAegon is about 18 years old.   This is little different from accepting that Jon is 14 years old when Jon corrects him.  

Nonetheless, a person claiming that YG is only 15-16 years old does have SOME evidence for his position, and I would never suggest that this is not an arguable clue.  It could be a red herring too, of course.  GRRM has, after all, given himself a license to mislead us by having Tyrion underestimate Jon's age.   But those who want absolute certainty must again wait for the books to come out.

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Besides we don't have physical description of Mellario,

So what?  I told you what my theory is based on.  You're just ignoring the evidence I provided so you can complain about the evidence I did not provide.  

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Lemore didn't shave her head as stated by @Jaenara Belarys...

That's not what @Jaenara Belaerys stated. 

Anyhow I don't know if she was wearing a wig on the Shy Maid or not.  I would guess not.  Wigs can come off.  That's not a big problem when your identity is "Norvosi noblewomen".  It is more of a problem when one is supposed to be a Septa.   I don't think she wants to advertise that she is Mellario of Norvos, and she has had time to prepare for this occasion by growing her hair out.  More likely, she is using hair dye on this occasion (as are a number of others on the Shy Maid).  But who knows.  Maybe she is still wearing a wig and it will fall off next time we meet her.  That's up to GRRM, I say.  I don't have to know all the details for my theory to turn out to be (possibly) correct.  

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Sorry, but your theory is a huge crackpot that contradicts everything we know about the characters involved in it,

What you've given above does not amount to much, as far as disproof goes.  But perhaps you have more.

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you should'nt be so arrogant with such arguments.

What are you talking about?  

Edited by Mister Smikes

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4 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Well there are a few things here. First is that while it is true that "Targaryen" is only the legitimately born male line, it is also true that those males often married women who may easily have been carriers of the female line, which would have brought it back in to the family tree. Some of those marriages of course happened after Viserys I.

I too have some outstanding questions regarding whether Daenerys is who she believes herself to be but even if she is, I don't at all doubt that she is fully dragonblooded in the sense that effectively matters for the theme of this thread. Clearly she hatched 3 dragons and rode one and looks every inch a dragonlord.

As for as much Rhoynish as Valyrian, I would say that is a stretch. There were only two male Targaryen- female Martell marriages, and the Martell line is no more than half Rhoynish, probably much less. Dorne had older families predating the Rhoynish arrival.

As for your last point, yes it’s valid, I should have said Dornish as opposed to Rhoynish.  But as for the rest, the entire royal line was born from the union of Daeron  II and Mariah Martell.  

We don’t have any reason to believe that Mariah Martell had any Valyrian bloodlines in her family tree.  

Then the only subsequent marriage in the royal line were to Deanna Dane, another Dornish woman, and then Bertha Blackwood.  After that it was all incestuous unions.  So we don’t have any additional Valyrian bloodlines entering into the royal family tree after their Martell union.

Now I suppose it’s possible that the Daynes at the time of Maekar’s marriage to Dyanna did have a Valyrian bloodline.  It’s possible but we don’t have evidence of that yet.  

I suppose it’s also possible that there might be some Valyrian bloodline in the family tree of Bertha Blackwood, but I don’t think we have any evidence of that either.  

And even before that union, the Targaryens had been unable to hatch any dragons.  Which should come as no surprise since the line really had been restarted with Viserys II who notably could not hatch his dragon and never rode a dragon.

So it irritates me a bit when some seem to equate the ability to ride a dragon or hatch a dragon egg with being a “legitimate” member of the Targaryen family.  In fact the opposite should be true.  The evidence suggests that the legitimate Targaryens after the Dance could not hatch a dragon, nor ever rode any dragons.  

Obviously dragons wouldn’t care a whit about any legal legitimacies.  

So I think whether or not Young Griff can ride a dragon has very little to do with whether he is a legitimate Targaryen or Blackfyre for that matter.

So the next question is whether the classic Valyrian look of purple eyes and silver gold hair equates to the ability to hatch or ride a dragon.  You seem to equate Dany’s ability to hatch dragons with her classic Valyrian looks.  

I think Illyrio seems to make a connection to this Valyrian look and the ability to ride a dragon.  He also makes a great deal over Dany’s looks.  Her deep violet eyes and gold silver hair.  So I do wonder if he might take Young Griff’s classic Valyrian look as some evidence that he can bond with a dragon.

If he does, than that might be folly on Illyrio’s part.  Because we know that having the right look doesn’t necessarily equate with the ability to ride a dragon.

And we have historical precedents of that.  Nettles certainly didn’t have the right look but she could bond with a dragon.  Jacaerys, Lucerys and Joffrey proved that you didn’t need to have the classic Valyrian look to either bond with dragons.  And perhaps hatch dragons. 

It very well may be the the connection between the classic Valyrian look and the ability to bond with dragons is a bit of a coincidence at the beginning.  And years of incestuous pairing just maintained a coincidental link between the two.  

 

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2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

That's not what @Jaenara Belaerys stated. 

 

I said that since Lemore doesn't shave herself, maybe it's hair dye. So it kind of is what I stated, check my post please. 

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

What are you talking about?  

I suggest that both of you guys leave this out of it, it just drives the thread off topic. Pretty please. 

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Anyhow I don't know if she was wearing a wig on the Shy Maid or not.  I would guess not.  Wigs can come off.

But there's a problem with this: I don't know much about wigs since I don't need one, but if you were in the water wouldn't it slip off if you went into water?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

As for your last point, yes it’s valid, I should have said Dornish as opposed to Rhoynish.  But as for the rest, the entire royal line was born from the union of Daeron  II and Mariah Martell.  

We don’t have any reason to believe that Mariah Martell had any Valyrian bloodlines in her family tree.  

Dyanna Dayne, who, while clearly being Dornish, is from a House that is not particularly Rhoynarish and has strong connections and likely inter-marriages with Marcher lord houses with Targaryen blood as well as the Hightowers. Her bloodline is more significant than Mariah's in what came after.

Similarly, Betha Blackwood's bloodline is more significant than Mariah's. And we don't really know much about who married into the Blackwood family except to speculate they may have included any number of female line dragon blood descendents.

  

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Now I suppose it’s possible that the Daynes at the time of Maekar’s marriage to Dyanna did have a Valyrian bloodline.  It’s possible but we don’t have evidence of that yet.  

I suppose it’s also possible that there might be some Valyrian bloodline in the family tree of Bertha Blackwood, but I don’t think we have any evidence of that either.

I see there was some overlap but what I am trying to say is that the female line is significant, but not filled in. And while it is true we don't have direct evidence, we do have indirect evidence that both of these queens may well have had Targaryens in their family bloodlines. That evidence comes from just looking at who those families tended to inter-marry with, as well as a general pattern of the dragonblooded being drawn to each other as well as sticking to their own in arranged marriages.

 

Edited by Hippocras

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16 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

I said that since Lemore doesn't shave herself, maybe it's hair dye.

I agreed with you that maybe it's hair dye.

16 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

I suggest that both of you guys leave this out of it, it just drives the thread off topic. Pretty please. 

Wait, you challenged me to defend my position.  And then when I do, you tell me to ("pretty please") shut up?   And then you keep arguing.  I guess it's one rule for me but not for thee.

16 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

But there's a problem with this: I don't know much about wigs since I don't need one, but if you were in the water wouldn't it slip off if you went into water?

I don't know.  I don't know much about wigs either.  Seems to me like it could be an issue, unless she was very carful to keep her head above water.  But like I already said, i agree with you that maybe it's hair dye.

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Just now, Mister Smikes said:

Wait, you challenged me to defend my position.  And then when I do, you tell me to ("pretty please") shut up?   And then you keep arguing.  I guess it's one rule for me but not for thee.

 

Oh no, I don't want him to call you arrogant, and I don't want you to respond to it. That's all. It derails the conversation. 

3 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I agreed with you that maybe it's hair dye.

 

Thank you, then. 

3 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I don't know.  I don't know much about wigs either.  Seems to me like it could be an issue, unless she was very carful to keep her head above water.  But like I already said, i agree with you that maybe it's hair dye.

Yokay. 

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2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Actually, no.  I can claim (as I do) that evidence has SOME weight, without claiming that evidence is absolute.  In this case, I have not claimed that any of my evidence is absolute. 

Then you have to admit that Tyrion is not a reliable source on this matter, which makes this argument a bit weak.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Secondly, there is a distinction between estimating that a person IS a certain age, and that they are OVER a certain age.  It is far more easy to do the latter reliably, than the former.

It's still an estimation and without basis of comparison, you can't use this argument.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Thirdly, if I MUST conclude that Tyrion's age estimates are 100% accurate, I must conclude that Jon Snow was only 12 in AGOT.

This is why you shouldn't use this argument.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Fourthly, Tyrion revises his own estimate.

Yup, not reliable.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

So what?

So you don't have any evidence on the fact that she has at least Valyrian ancestry, clue that would have been given by her physical appearence. We know how fAegon looks like, how the Blackfyres look like, how the Targaryen look like and specifically Rhaegar. Physical appearence is a key point in-universe, you need it to reduce the possibilities, otherwise she could be anyone or everyone, which doesn't help us.

This is why I said it is a crackpot theory, because it lacks evidence, that's all.

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Dyanna Dayne, who, while clearly being Dornish, is from a House that is not particularly Rhoynarish and has strong connections and likely inter-marriages with Marcher lord houses with Targaryen blood as well as the Hightowers. Her bloodline is more significant than Mariah's in what came after.

Similarly, Betha Blackwood's bloodline is more significant than Mariah's. And we don't really know much about who married into the Blackwood family except to speculate they may have included any number of female line dragon blood descendents.

  

I see there was some overlap but what I am trying to say is that the female line is significant, but not filled in. And while it is true we don't have direct evidence, we do have indirect evidence that both of these queens may well have had Targaryens in their family bloodlines. That evidence comes from just looking at who those families tended to inter-marry with, as well as a general pattern of the dragonblooded being drawn to each other as well as sticking to their own in arranged marriages.

 

I’d say it’s a stronger possibility that House Dayne may have had a Valyrian bloodline.  I suppose that might explain why Maekar married into the line.  Even though he was a fourth son wasn’t he?  So there might not have been as much political or societal pressure for him to marry into a House with a strong Valyrian influence.  And the arrangement of Maekar’s marriage may have had more to do with his mother than his father.  

But House Dayne having a recent Valyrian bloodline might explain why both Egg and Aerion had such a prototypical Valyrian look.  

(Interesting enough though, in rereading a Sworn Sword, there is a bit where Dunk observes that Egg took to the heat and turned as brown as a Dornishman.  Dunk actually chalks up Egg’s fondness for the heat with his Valyrian heritage but in actuality it probably has more to do with his mother’s and his paternal grandmother’s heritage.  They were Dornish after all.)

But we know that Aegon’s marriage to Bertha wasn’t as a result of any arrangement.  It was why Aegon was fairly hypocritical when he tried to arrange the marriage of his own children.  So I don’t think we can assume that Aegon’s marriage to Bertha had anything to do with previous Valyrian bloodlines.

 

 

Edited by Frey family reunion

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

I’d say it’s a stronger possibility that House Dayne may have had a Valyrian bloodline.  I suppose that might explain why Maekar married into the line.  Even though he was a fourth son wasn’t he?  So there might not have been as much political or societal pressure for him to marry into a House with a strong Valyrian influence.  And the arrangement of Maekar’s marriage may have had more to do with his mother than his father.  

But House Dayne having a recent Valyrian bloodline might explain why both Egg and Aerion had such a prototypical Valyrian look.  

(Interesting enough though, in rereading a Sworn Sword, there is a bit where Dunk observes that Egg took to the heat and turned as brown as a Dornishman.  Dunk actually chalks up Egg’s fondness for the heat with his Valyrian heritage but in actuality it probably has more to do with his mother’s and his paternal grandmother’s heritage.  They were Dornish after all.)

But we know that Aegon’s marriage to Bertha wasn’t as a result of any arrangement.  It was why Aegon was fairly hypocritical when he tried to arrange the marriage of his own children.  So I don’t think we can assume that Aegon’s marriage to Bertha had anything to do with previous Valyrian bloodlines.

 

 

Could be some other Valyrian to House Dayne too, certainly. But think of it this way:

The known families that the earliest Targaryens looked to when they didn't have an available Targaryen bride were House Velaryon and House Baratheon, and that is where they offloaded extra Targaryen daughters. Daughters of those two families in turn married into houses in the Stormlands and Crownlands most frequently but occasionally looked farther afield. So then the female line branches into House Massey, House Dondarion, House Penrose, House Caron etc.

Well THOSE families in turn would have had some daughters from time to time. And those daughters would have been used to make peace between Marcher Houses in the Stormlands and Dorne, and to make strategic alliances between Riverlands and Crownlands Houses. So while we don't have the direct ability to trace it, suddenly it becomes clear how easily that female line dragon bloodline moves into all kinds of unexpected places. And then some of those Houses carrying the female line inter-marry, creating *resonance* and reducing dilution.

The location and history of Starfall makes it highly likely that peace marriages were frequent between House Dayne and Marcher houses such as Caron and Dondarion, and I don't simply mean the known betrothal of Beric and Allyria - though that counts as evidence. It also is very likely the same tendency applied towards the Southwest, where there was a strong handy line of female Hightowers who were half Targaryen princess, and peace that needed strenghthening because of the Dornish wars.

Now for House Blackwood: Blackwoods have tended to most frequently marry into First Men Houses in the Riverlands, Vale, North and Stormlands (when they were not marrying Brackens for peace). Included in that are known Royce marriages and Arryn marriages. Meanwhile Targaryen females married into Houses Arryn, Royce, Corbray in the Vale. So finding out that the female line passed to Betha Blackwood via a Vale or Stormlands mother would not be the least bit surprising. And while I agree Aegon did not marry her because of this, I tend to think his initial attraction to her in the first place may well have been the subconscious thing of dragonblood being attracted to dragonblood, with an extra boost from her being also from a family with strong magical links of a more ancient kind.

Edited by Hippocras

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Then you have to admit that Tyrion is not a reliable source on this matter, which makes this argument a bit weak.

I'm just quoting the text.  The problem is not that I am claiming the text in this context, is infallible.  The problem is you are saying that I should not be able to quote the text at all.  What else should I quote?  .Seems to me you are taking the "words are wind" mantra a little too much to heart.  Words mean something and "over forty" means something different than "under 40".  Even estimates are not meaningless.

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It's still an estimation and without basis of comparison, you can't use this argument.

I can and I will.  Sorry.  And again, I am not presenting it as infallible proof, merely as a point to consider.

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This is why you shouldn't use this argument.

How dare I quote the text.   

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So you don't have any evidence on the fact that she has at least Valyrian ancestry, clue that would have been given by her physical appearence. We know how fAegon looks like, how the Blackfyres look like, how the Targaryen look like and specifically Rhaegar. Physical appearence is a key point in-universe, you need it to reduce the possibilities, otherwise she could be anyone or everyone, which doesn't help us.

This is why I said it is a crackpot theory, because it lacks evidence, that's all.

You are ignoring the points I provided to complain about the points I did not provide.  But it seems to me like you are making a fallacious argument from ignorance.  

Maybe, just maybe, GRRM does not want to be super obvious.  Had he told us that both Mellario and Lemore have purple eyes, fans would have been all over that in a heartbeat.  However, he did not say anything about their eye color which does not rule out anything.

Edited by Mister Smikes

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2 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:
Oh no, I don't want him to call you arrogant, and I don't want you to respond to it. That's all. It derails the conversation. 

Oh, right.  Yeah, that does sound like a boring topic.

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19 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I'm just quoting the text.

There is a difference between quoting the text and provide evidence, I'm looking for evidence, not quotes.

31 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

The problem is you are saying that I should not be able to quote the text at all.

No you are just overreacting because I said your theory is crackpot and you felt offended, nothing more. Before this conclusion I said that if you chose to base your theory on Tyrion's estimations to determine Lemore's age, then you have to admit the fact that fAegon is younger that Quentyn, which contradicts your previous statement. Considering the fact that Tyrion was already wrong in estimating Jon’s age and was wrong about fAegon as well, you can't rely on him to determine one's age when it's convenient for you and ignore him when it's not. Without evidence this is just a fallacious argument.

58 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Words mean something and "over forty" means something different than "under 40".

As the word "evidence" means something different than "estimation".

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

I can and I will.

You can play this childish game all you want, it won't make your argument more relevant.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

And again, I am not presenting it as infallible proof, merely as a point to consider.

I've considered it and when I saw the contradition, I told you about it.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

How dare I quote the text.   

How dare you not provide evidence actually.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

You are ignoring the points I provided to complain about the points I did not provide.

I didn't talk about it because I agree with your previous statements: Lemore is fAegon's mother and has Blackfyre heritage.

Our disagreement is on her identity: I don't believe that Lemore is Mellario, fAegon is Quentyn and you didn't provide evidence to say otherwise. That is why I said it is crackpot theory, it's based on nothing.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

But it seems to me like you are making a fallacious argument from ignorance.  

The burden of proof is on your side, not mine.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Maybe, just maybe, GRRM does not want to be super obvious.  Had he told us that both Mellario and Lemore have purple eyes, fans would have been all over that in a heartbeat.

Yeah I know.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

However, he did not say anything about their eye color which does not rule out anything.

You still have to provide evidence, it's not that easy. Otherwise we can imagine anything: for example I could say that Edric Dayne's mother is Lemore and also fAegon's mother because why not ? See ? Evidence is needed, not baseless claims.

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8 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

I didn't talk about it because I agree with your previous statements: Lemore is fAegon's mother and has Blackfyre heritage.

This is actually unlikely. If lemore and faegon had obvious similarities tyrion should have mentioned it. The phisical aspects that tyrion doesn't mention about lemore should be things that aren't striking. This should eliminate purple eyes or blond silver hair...

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

There is a difference between quoting the text and provide evidence, I'm looking for evidence, not quotes.

I told you the reasons for my suspicions, but never claimed to have proof.  You say that none of my reasons count as "evidence" according to your narrow definition of "evidence".  That's fine.   This is the point where we agree to disagree; and wait for the next book to come out, to see if I have guessed correctly.

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No you are just overreacting because I said your theory is crackpot and you felt offended, nothing more.

Not at all.  I am saying it because you literally told me, twice, that I should not be allowed to mention Tyrion's estimate of Lemore's age.

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Before this conclusion I said that if you chose to base your theory on Tyrion's estimations to determine Lemore's age, then you have to admit the fact that fAegon is younger that Quentyn, which contradicts your previous statement.

Nonsense.   "Tyrion is wrong about Young Griff's age" on no way contradicts "Tyrion is right about Lemore's age".  They can both be true.  And each question should be considered separately in light of the total evidence for each question.  That an honest observer is sometimes wrong in no way implies that all his observations are valueless or meaningless.

The fact that observers are fallible does not render their testimony completely without value.  If that were true, no-one would be able to testify in court about anything they observe or remember.

Anyhow, let's look at the quote more closely.

"The dwarf put his age at fifteen or sixteen, or near enough to make no matter."

I don't know how near things have to be to matter to Tyrion, but the last phrase, at the very least, means that Tyrion's estimate is actually a range of ages that includes at least some ages other than 15 and 16.  The quote also explicitly ascribes the estimate to "the dwarf", thereby distancing the 3rd person omniscient narrator from the estimate.

That Lemore is "past forty" is also implied to be from Tyrion's POV (like the whole chapter) but with no such explicit distancing by the 3rd person omniscient narrator.  And again, "past forty" implies a range of ages, and not that Lemore is exactly 41 or 42 (as opposed to 45 or 48).   There is no "or near enough to make no matter" qualification.

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Considering the fact that Tyrion was already wrong in estimating Jon’s age and was wrong about fAegon as well, you can't rely on him to determine one's age when it's convenient for you and ignore him when it's not.

Have you ever been wrong about anything?  Are you comfortable therefore with the conclusion that everything you say is completely valueless from now on?

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I didn't talk about it because I agree with your previous statements: Lemore is fAegon's mother and has Blackfyre heritage.

That actually gives us alot of common ground.

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Our disagreement is on her identity: I don't believe that Lemore is Mellario, fAegon is Quentyn and you didn't provide evidence to say otherwise. That is why I said it is crackpot theory, it's based on nothing.

That's funny.  I actually provided, I thought, alot more for "Lemore is Mellario" than I did for "Lemore is fAegon's mom".  You just ignored it, and told me I had nothing.

But never mind.  Just tell me who you think Lemore is, and we'll call it a day.  

 

Edited by Mister Smikes

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17 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

So either he is telling the truth or is a good actor.    Why rule out the second possibility?  And Tyrion did not wring this story out of him on the torture rack.  Varys CHOSE to tell this story.  Playing hard to get with the info may just be a trick.  And you're assuming his "false effeminate" behavior is false, and that his "sincere" behavior is true.   Maybe, but maybe not.  Seems to me that he would be saving a bit of energy by saving his virtuoso performances for special occasions.  Maybe, just maybe, the way he usually acts comes just a little bit more natural for him.

He deepens his voice just as he gives a little dramatic speech.  Not necessarily lying, but maybe a little theatrical.  And then he becomes more natural again, and compares himself to a "silly old woman".  Seems to me you could read this either way.

The idea just is that the author actually uses deliberate clues so we can figure out when a mysterious character may tell the truth. It is similar with Melisandre - when she talks with Davos off the record in ACoK and ASoS she is also more likely to tell the truth than in other situations.

I mean, technically Illyrio and Varys could also lie to each other in every sentence in that conversation Arya overhears in AGoT. But how likely is that?

@Frey family reunion & @Hippocras

I've strongly argued for the possibility that many or all the brides of Daeron II's four son had Targaryen ancestry. This is effectively confirmed for Aelinor Penrose, who may be a descendant of the second Laena Velaryon by means of her marrying into the Penrose family (it is even quite likely that Elaena Targaryen's second husband Ronnel Penrose is a descendant of Laena's as well, considering he named his eldest daughter Laena).

The Daynes could be similarly blessed with such a union, perhaps in the wake of Daeron's Conquest of Dorne or the Baelor's peace treaty. Both could have married one of their Targaryen-Hightower cousins to the Lord of Starfall.

But considering the fact that Maekar was the youngest son of Daeron II this doesn't really have to be the case - where I think we have to go with such an assumption is with Baelor Breakspear's wife because the chance that the Prince of Dragonstone was married to a Dondarrion without Targaryen blood while Daeron II already had problems with Daemon Blackfyre is just not very likely. In such a scenario he would have strengthened the royal bloodline by marrying his heir to his own sister Daenerys rather than marrying her to the Prince of Dorne.

But via the Penrose link the Targaryen blood could have easily spread to the Dondarrions as well, say, the second Laena Velaryon marries the Lord of Parchments around 150 AC, the Lord of Parchments has a son, Ronnel (who later marries Elaena), as well as a daughter, who ends up marrying into House Dondarrion to produce Baelor's future bride, Jena Dondarrion, around 170 AC, so she be roughly of the same age as Baelor Breakspear.

This all works out.

There could be more Targaryen-Velaryon girls from the marriage of Baela-Alyn, of course, and there are the six Targaryen-Hightower girls. All those children would be born over the course of several years, especially the Targaryen-Hightowers since Garmund Hightower was still a very young boy at the end of the Dance, meaning his marriage to Rhaena might not take place before 140 AC or so. In their cases one of the girls could be the mother rather than the grandmother of Dyanna Dayne.

That there might have been an earlier Dayne-Targaryen match of sorts might also be indicated by a Dayne marriage being suggested to earlier Targaryen kings, namely Maegor the Cruel.

The Martells are very likely to have no Targaryen ancestry, although they might have Valyrian blood from before Nymeria left the Rhoyne as well as due to Sunspear's closeness to Tyrosh and Lys. Aliandra Martell married Drazenko Rogare, Doran Martell married Mellario of Norvos, and other Princes of Dorne may have taken spouses from Essos, too.

But a Targaryen link is very unlikely in their case.

I'd be even more skeptical about Betha Blackwood having Targaryen ancestry, though, since Egg's marriage to Betha apparently was a scandal because the bride was beneath the prince who was supposed to marry his elder sister the Targaryen way. But the Blackwoods are a very prominent and prestigious Riverlord house, even with a royal background of their own. Betha should be a nobler match than Jena Dondarrion ... yet so far there is no indication the marriage of Baelor Breakspear caused any kind of scandal or backlash despite the fact that Baelor didn't even look Valyrian and his father should thus have looked for a Valyrian bride so that the royal branch of House Targaryen would not start to look common. This would have been a considerable danger in Baelor's case in light of Daemon Blackfyre's very distinct Valyrian features ... as well as those of Daemon's sons.

In that case I think it is possible that Jena Dondarrion was a Targaryen cousin but Betha Blackwood wasn't.

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