US politics: Everything in moderation, including moderation

[Tywin et al.]

I still can't stop laughing at the idea of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker. Man it's going to be comedy gold if not for the awful consequences of it all if Republicans retake the House.

[Maithanet]

Why?  Donald Trump was already president.  The joke of putting complete buffoons in powerful positions got old a long time ago. 

[Fez]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I still can't stop laughing at the idea of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker. Man it's going to be comedy gold if not for the awful consequences of it all if Republicans retake the House.

If there is a Republican majority of only 2 or 3 seats, I don't think McCarthy is guaranteed to end up as Speaker. Unless any Republican who would vote against him is out of office by then. But I can't see Cheney voting for him, assuming she isn't primaried. Same goes for Kinzinger; though he may end up redistricted out of office, or end up in a ruby-red vote-sink and get primaried. Some of the others who voted to impeach Trump may also not be 'yes' votes for McCarthy either if they're still in office; like Peter Meijer.

[Maithanet]

Depends on how slender a potential Republican majority is. If they have something like 220 or fewer seats, it is going to be very challenging for anybody to win 218 votes.

But that said, I fully expect that both Kinzinger and Cheney will be gone in 2023. 

[DMC]

13 minutes ago, Fez said:

But I can't see Cheney voting for him, assuming she isn't primaried. Same goes for Kinzinger

Not so sure about this.  What's the alternative for them?  It's very unlikely any viable challenger to McCarthy within the conference is going to viewed as any better by either Cheney or Kinzinger.  That being said, I don't think it's a fait accompli that McCarthy would be the next Speaker if the GOP retakes the House.  Or at least I wouldn't be surprised if he encounters a significant challenge.

[DMC]

24 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

But that said, I fully expect that both Kinzinger and Cheney will be gone in 2023. 

Definitely wouldn't count out Cheney just yet.  Between still raising tons of money (which Kinzinger is too), the large primary field potentially splitting the anti-Cheney vote, and plausibility that a significant amount of Independents and Dems register as GOP to vote in the primary (which they can do up to and including election day), stranger things have happened.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

7 hours ago, argonak said:

Its related to the number of seats, which is almost as much a problem as the gerrymandering in my opinion.  My vote should not be worth 1/3 of a wyoming vote.  Its enraging.   

Control of the House of Representatives had nothing to do with the Electoral college and is incredibly important.

[Tywin et al.]

3 hours ago, Fez said:

If there is a Republican majority of only 2 or 3 seats, I don't think McCarthy is guaranteed to end up as Speaker. 

If not him, then who? I can't see the others in leadership fairing any better, and that's kind of why I think it will be hilarious if they actually win. There's no controlling that caucus and it will probably be a daily experience of a snake cannibalizing itself. Enjoy the fruits of your labor, Kevin.

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

There's no controlling that caucus and it will probably be a daily experience of a snake cannibalizing itself. Enjoy the fruits of your labor, Kevin.

The House Republican Conference has been constantly trying to bite its own head off since at least Boehner was ousted.  In terms of plausible challengers, Scalise is pretty obvious.  And it's not out of the realm of possibility Trump puts his weight around Stefanik just because he'd view her as "his" Speaker/leader (and be kinda right to).

[IheartIheartTesla]

He isnt enough of a Trump toady (although he definitely makes the right noises) for many of the faithful, so I can see hm being seriously challenged

[Mindwalker]

Gunther Hashida is now the third officer who protected the U.S. Capitol against a pro-Trump mob on Jan. 6 who has died by suicide in the aftermath of the riot.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/gunther-hashida-another-dc-cop-who-responded-to-capitol-insurrection-has-died-by-suicide?ref=home?ref=home

 

And Tucker Carlsen met with Victor Orban.

 

 

 

[Fez]

Graham has tested positive for COVID. He was on Manchin's house boat over the weekend with a bunch of other senators. No word on other tests yet.

Senators are likely tested far more often than most others. It does make me wonder just how common breakthrough infections are occurring that are never caught because there are zero or mild symptoms.

Graham, to his credit, did say that his symptoms weren't bad and was thankful for the vaccine from stopping them from being worse.

ETA: Removed the info about Coons. He was on the house boat, but the info I saw about him testing positive was deleted.

[Tywin et al.]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

The House Republican Conference has been constantly trying to bite its own head off since at least Boehner was ousted.  In terms of plausible challengers, Scalise is pretty obvious.  And it's not out of the realm of possibility Trump puts his weight around Stefanik just because he'd view her as "his" Speaker/leader (and be kinda right to).

I think it would be a bit odd for Scalise to have the votes in the case McCarthy didn't. Maybe that assumption is wrong, but I would think the same no votes that would sink McCarthy would also end his bid, so Stefanik would be the smarter bet of the two, especially if like you said she got the Trump boost. It would be fascinating to see what would happen if she didn't have the votes either.

Speaker Ivanka?

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

I would think the same no votes that would sink McCarthy would also end his bid

Well, if it were a challenge it would be an intra-conference one that would precede the actual speakership vote.  It wouldn't really be about the handful of votes that maybe wouldn't vote for either of them.

[Mindwalker]

Just found a video about "the fate of" 45 as an animated horror short film. A bit dark.

 

[Fez]

12 hours ago, DMC said:

Well, if it were a challenge it would be an intra-conference one that would precede the actual speakership vote.  It wouldn't really be about the handful of votes that maybe wouldn't vote for either of them.

It's also possible that Gaetz and a few others legit refuse to vote for anybody other than Trump as Speaker, which would really throw a wrench into things if there were a tight majority.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

31 minutes ago, Fez said:

It's also possible that Gaetz and a few others legit refuse to vote for anybody other than Trump as Speaker, which would really throw a wrench into things if there were a tight majority.

Is this a play to make Donald Trump Speaker of the House if the Republicans take the House in 2022?

[Fez]

5 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Is this a play to make Donald Trump Speaker of the House if the Republicans take the House in 2022?

Yep. Gaetz has already said he'd nominate Trump as Speaker if Republicans take the House.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

23 minutes ago, Fez said:

Yep. Gaetz has already said he'd nominate Trump as Speaker if Republicans take the House.

That’s the only way to get Trump into the line of succession.  And there is nothing, Constitutionally, that requires the Speaker to be a member of the House.  

Gaetz is such a lickspittle toady.

[Tywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That’s the only way to get Trump into the line of succession.  And there is nothing, Constitutionally, that requires the Speaker to be a member of the House.  

Gaetz is such a lickspittle toady.

Trump probably doesn’t want to be Speaker, hence why yesterday I joked they’d settle for Ivanka. But regardless, their hypothetical margin would be razor thin and a few holdouts could knock all three in leadership out of the running. The questions is then who could possibly step up? Speaker Tucker Carlson? It’s just as likely as any other House Republican.