US politics: Everything in moderation, including moderation

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

I looked and couldn't find any of the principles on the Republican side saying they would pull out if the reconciliation deal also occurred, but that doesn't mean they won't. There's still plenty of time to scuttle things.

Again, it totally could happen.  And that's completely on the GOP.  If they do that, then they're making a political mistake and they look like the assholes.  No Dem should be blamed for it, especially by other Dems.

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Obviously they're not the same, but it's hard to call bullshit when there's an obvious example to cite, one that the Biden Administration is very aware of.

It's not just that they're not the same, it's that the comparison is stupid.  The legislation was at entirely different stages, and the House could (and hopefully will) actually use the August recess to markup the bill.

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

There's also no evidence that they'll sink it. I'm sure Manchin and Sinema will ultimately vote for it, so who cares if the final number is 3.5T or 3T? 

Well, first, a half a trillion dollars - or a seventh of the bill - may well be significant to some people.  Second, there is evidence Manchin and Sinema are not on board with the reconciliation bill yet.  Because they've said so.  Thus, maintaining leverage to ensure they do come to an agreement is entirely prudent.

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And if the reconciliation bill doesn't happen, do you really think she'd let the bill just die in the House?

Yes.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

45 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yes.

Really? The other stuff is just bored wheel spinning shit, but you honestly actually think she would do that. Why so? 

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Really? The other stuff is just bored wheel spinning shit, but you honestly actually think she would do that. Why so? 

Because she wouldn't have the votes to pass it.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

9 minutes ago, DMC said:

Because she wouldn't have the votes to pass it.

I think she'd be forced to twist arms and get it across the line. To not do so would be a disaster. It would likely mean nothing gets done in 2022, Republicans cakewalk into controlling both chambers in the Midterms and then Biden most likely loses in 2024. 

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

I think she'd be forced to twist arms and get it across the line. To not do so would be a disaster. It would likely mean nothing gets done in 2022, Republicans cakewalk into controlling both chambers in the Midterms and then Biden most likely loses in 2024. 

I think you're being overdramatic and don't have your priorities straight.  The bipartisan bill is not that important, it's half a trillion in new spending - the same amount you were just willing to write off as meaningless regarding the negotiations on the reconciliation bill.  Passing the latter is what is important, both in a policy context and political context.  The primary benefit of the bipartisan deal is it's a vanity exercise for Biden being the wizened legislative tactician.  That's good, but it's not worth sacrificing getting actual agenda items codified.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

25 minutes ago, DMC said:

I think you're being overdramatic and don't have your priorities straight.  The bipartisan bill is not that important, it's half a trillion in new spending - the same amount you were just willing to write off as meaningless regarding the negotiations on the reconciliation bill.  Passing the latter is what is important, both in a policy context and political context.  The primary benefit of the bipartisan deal is it's a vanity exercise for Biden being the wizened legislative tactician.  That's good, but it's not worth sacrificing getting actual agenda items codified.

I wouldn't be so confident the larger bill, which yes is the priority, passes if the bipartisan deal falls apart.

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I wouldn't be so confident the larger bill, which yes is the priority, passes if the bipartisan deal falls apart.

Don't know where I said I was confident, just said it's the priority.  Which is what Pelosi has maintained and I agree with.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

I think it's obvious that if the Democrats don't have the votes from progressives to pass the infrastructure bill without assurances on the larger reconciliation bill they should just give up immediately. Why expend political capital on a lost cause? This is how incrementalism works, my friends!

[SpaceChampion]

 

[Mindwalker]

46 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

 

And please nobody find that clip of her enthusiastically applauding Trump either.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

10 hours ago, DMC said:

Don't know where I said I was confident, just said it's the priority.  Which is what Pelosi has maintained and I agree with.

The brinksmanship on display should sink your confidence. From my perspective, it's all entirely unnecessary. This should not be hard, but certain actors seem determined to make it so. 

1 hour ago, Mindwalker said:

And please nobody find that clip of her enthusiastically applauding Trump either.

Sinema needs to get primaried, but by a reasonable candidate who can win statewide. She's a clown seeking attention. That's been her bag for two decades now. 

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The brinksmanship on display should sink your confidence. From my perspective, it's all entirely unnecessary. This should not be hard, but certain actors seem determined to make it so. 

I don't even know what this means.  Why should my confidence be sinking when 66 Senators just voted to advance debate on the one bipartisan deal and every Dem Senator has confirmed they will vote on the budget resolution to begin the reconciliation process?  Your whole complaints here defy logic.  Just saw this piece pondering why McConnell voted to advance debate this week.  Romney had a quote at the end that clarifies things:

Quote

“There were only two choices here. One option is: We do a bipartisan bill. And the other option is: The Democrats do a bill on their own. There’s not an option of ‘don’t do anything,’” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), another negotiator of the bipartisan deal. “Leader McConnell recognized this was a better option than just letting the Democrats do this on their own.”

So Democrats should be terrified about the GOP abandoning the bipartisan deal because then they'd...have to do it themselves and not cater to Republicans?  

[HoodedCrow]

One of my vax denier friends has been extremely influenced by a naturopath. I phoned the head office of what amounts to a company and talked about how more Canadians were more vaxxed ( competition), and how the view was irresponsible( makes their group look bad). My friend is showing signs of openness and my input would be counterproductive, I believe. I’ m not sure that was a good move. Maybe. It was maybe better than cussing them out??
 

 

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

I don't even know what this means.  Why should my confidence be sinking when 66 Senators just voted to advance debate on the one bipartisan deal and every Dem Senator has confirmed they will vote on the budget resolution to begin the reconciliation process?  Your whole complaints here defy logic.  Just saw this piece pondering why McConnell voted to advance debate this week.  Romney had a quote at the end that clarifies things:

So Democrats should be terrified about the GOP abandoning the bipartisan deal because then they'd...have to do it themselves and not cater to Republicans?  

I'm just saying it's far from a done deal, and that the constant foot dragging isn't productive. Furthermore, the intraparty fighting, especially when it becomes public, is problematic. All you have to do is get the key players in a room together, accept a general framework, and then play within those lines. Having people go public and say they'll tank the whole deal if they don't get x. y and z is the last thing that's needed.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

21 hours ago, Fez said:

That was on the motion to proceed. The underlying bill could still get filibustered if the deal falls apart.

 

17 hours ago, DMC said:

What Fez said.  They voted to start debate, cloture is voting to end debate.

I see, I thought they voted to end.

[DMC]

18 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'm just saying it's far from a done deal, and that the constant foot dragging isn't productive.

The only real "foot dragging" I've seen is from Republicans working on the bipartisan deal.  And Schumer forcing that vote a week or so ago did seem to get them to change their tune and vote to proceed a week later.

20 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Furthermore, the intraparty fighting, especially when it becomes public, is problematic.

Like I said from the beginning, I don't think the public attacks are wise and I think everyone should calm down.  But instead you seem to be overreacting to that overreaction.

[DMC]

30 minutes ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

 

I see, I thought they voted to end.

Understandable confusion.  Especially because, technically, they did vote on cloture on the motion to proceed on Wednesday and then voted on the actual motion to proceed on Friday.  For further review of the maddening procedures of the Senate, here's a CRS report on how measures are brought to the floor.

[Mindwalker]

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/07/gop-could-retake-the-house-in-2022-just-by-gerrymandering-four-southern-states/

GOP Could Retake the House in 2022 Just by Gerrymandering Four Southern States

A new study finds that Republicans could gain up to 13 seats in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

[ThinkerX]

7 hours ago, DMC said:

I don't even know what this means.  Why should my confidence be sinking when 66 Senators just voted to advance debate on the one bipartisan deal and every Dem Senator has confirmed they will vote on the budget resolution to begin the reconciliation process?  Your whole complaints here defy logic.  Just saw this piece pondering why McConnell voted to advance debate this week.  Romney had a quote at the end that clarifies things:

So Democrats should be terrified about the GOP abandoning the bipartisan deal because then they'd...have to do it themselves and not cater to Republicans?  

what is that old saying about 'democrats snatching defeat from the jaws of victory?'  Given the razor thin majorities, philosophical differences, within the party, and showboating...the democrats big infrastructure bill looks likely (to me, anyhow) to undergo sever trimming (reduced by 50-70%) before it makes it to Biden's desk.  

[DMC]

38 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

Given the razor thin majorities, philosophical differences, within the party, and showboating...the democrats big infrastructure bill looks likely (to me, anyhow) to undergo sever trimming (reduced by 50-70%) before it makes it to Biden's desk.  

You mean the reconciliation bill?  A bill cut to that extent wouldn't make it to Biden's desk.  I don't know where the hell you're getting your figures from, but even if Manchin/Sinema got everything they wanted it's pretty clear even they don't wanna cut the bill in half.  Anywho, all this pessimism really flies in the face of, ya know, what's literally happening right now - Senate holds sleepy Saturday session as negotiators finalize infrastructure deal:

Quote

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced shortly before 5:30 p.m. that the bipartisan deal wasn't yet finalized, but suggested he was going to keep the chamber on standby heading into the evening so they could file the legislation when finished. 

"I've been informed the group is working hard to bring this negotiation to a conclusion, but they believe they need a little bit more time. I'm prepared to give it to them," he said. 

"I'm fully committed to passing a bipartisan infrastructure bill, and so the Senate will remain in session today so they can bring this to a conclusion," he added. [...]

Schumer has vowed to hold votes on both the bipartisan bill and the budget resolution before he lets the Senate leave for a weeks-long summer break. The Senate had been expected to start that break on Aug. 9 but is likely to lose the first week to finish up the two-part infrastructure debate. 

"I have said for weeks that the Senate is going to move forward on both tracks of infrastructure before the beginning of the August recess. The longer it takes to finish, the longer we'll be here, but we're going to get the job done," Schumer said.