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Immediate consequences of Jon's betrayal of the NW


Rondo
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2 minutes ago, Terrorthatflapsinthenight9 said:

He is, though. Both by blood and by heart, no name or secret parentage can change that.

Yes, he is. Even if he never takes the name and remains Jon Snow, King of Winter

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Just now, Craving Peaches said:

I know but technically he doesn't have the name Stark so there's no reason for him to be lumped in with all the other 'Stark Embarrassments'.

But.. but.. you’re expecting logic and common sense and consideration for the text where there is none to be found. :dunno:

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6 minutes ago, Quoth the raven, said:

Ramsay Bolton may not attack Castle Black.

He will, because the terms of his letter have not been fulfilled.

11 minutes ago, Quoth the raven, said:

Bowen Marsh will take charge and send assurances to send Arya and Reek back.

That doesn't matter, because those aren't all the people Ramsay wants back. Also Bowen can't send back what he doesn't have, and he doesn't have Arya or Reek.

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Just now, Craving Peaches said:

He will, because the terms of his letter have not been fulfilled.

That doesn't matter, because those aren't all the people Ramsay wants back. Also Bowen can't send back what he doesn't have, and he doesn't have Arya or Reek.

All Bowen needs to do is give his word of compliance if Arya and Reek come to the wall.  We know it won't happen but Bowen and Ramsay do not.  Look at it from Bowen's side.  Arya and Reek are apt to die before they can reach the wall.  He can have them taken into custody and sent back to WF if they happen to make it. 

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14 minutes ago, Quoth the raven, said:

All Bowen needs to do is give his word of compliance if Arya and Reek come to the wall. 

That will not suffice. Because the letter says that unless the Watch hands over all the people listed, Ramsay will attack. They cannot hand over all the people listed. So Ramsay will attack. And it is not just Arya and Reek that Ramsay wants.

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44 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

He will, because the terms of his letter have not been fulfilled.

That doesn't matter, because those aren't all the people Ramsay wants back. Also Bowen can't send back what he doesn't have, and he doesn't have Arya or Reek.

Ramsay may or may not attack the Wall.  He may not have the forces or ability to attack, or may simply be bluffing.  We really have no idea what has been going on at Winterfell.  I suspect he may have other worries, at least in the near future if not now.

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Just now, Nevets said:

Ramsay may or may not attack the Wall.  He may not have the forces or ability to attack, or may simply be bluffing.  We really have no idea what has been going on at Winterfell.  I suspect he may have other worries, at least in the near future if not now.

He may be unable to respond, but Bowen doesn't know that. The information Bowen has access to tells him that if he doesn't hand over the hostages Ramsay will attack. Bowen knows he can't hand over those hostages because they don't have them, so the demand is impossible to fulfill.

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34 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

That will not suffice. Because the letter says that unless the Watch hands over all the people listed, Ramsay will attack. They cannot hand over all the people listed. So Ramsay will attack. And it is not just Arya and Reek that Ramsay wants.

Is it Ramsay's letter, though? Tone struck me weird. Frankly, I think either Stannis or Mance may have sent it. Or maybe Theon at Stannis' direction. Post below does well to explain the Mance possibility:

Several points of my own:

1) Stannis' "magic sword" is most likely a normal sword that Melisandre had been playing tricks on. Thus Ramsay would not consider it "magical" had he really defeated Stannis and taken his sword - but Stannis would, and so maybe would Mance as well.

2) I do not think Mance ever referred to Val as a "wildling princess". But Stannis did - pointing to letter having been written by Stannis.

3) Ramsay hates the word "bastard" - but Theon, having been a "Reek" under Ramsay, will have learned it to be the highest insult. And the letter is frankly silly in its repetition of "bastard".

So right now, I think author is likely either Mance, or else Theon under Stannis' direction. Ramsay almost certainly isn't: he doesn't send bits of human skin with his letters (but any of the other authors might have assumed that was a thing he did), he does not cut peoples hearts out and eat them (if Ramsay had written the letter, he would have threatened to flay Jon alive), he knows that Jon hates Theon and Arya isn't actually Arya and thus neither have any reason to go to Castle Black, and the letter does not have a seal (which is weird for Ramsay, but logical if somebody is trying to impersonate him). He also wouldn't use "crows" as an insult (whereas Mance would have).

Edited by Aldarion
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1 minute ago, Aldarion said:

Is it Ramsay's letter, though? Tone struck me weird. Frankly, I think either Stannis or Mance may have sent it. Or maybe Theon at Stannis' direction. Post below does well to explain the Mance possibility:

 

It might not be, but from Bowen's perspective Ramsay is the writer. And he knows he can't meet Ramsay's demands.

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3 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Is it Ramsay's letter, though? Tone struck me weird. Frankly, I think either Stannis or Mance may have sent it. Or maybe Theon at Stannis' direction. Post below does well to explain the Mance possibility:

<snip>
 

This needs a separate thread, so I’ll wait for [yet another] one to pop up to address the points you made at the end of your post. 
For now all I’ll say is, Ramsay wrote the letter. :)

 

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3 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

It might not be, but from Bowen's perspective Ramsay is the writer. And he knows he can't meet Ramsay's demands.

Agreed. Speaking of, since Ramsay is a (supposed) Lannister loyalist, what is the possibility of potential Lannister loyalists on the Wall taking some sort of action?

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7 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Agreed. Speaking of, since Ramsay is a (supposed) Lannister loyalist, what is the possibility of potential Lannister loyalists on the Wall taking some sort of action?

I'm not sure how many potential Lannister loyalists are at the wall. Cersei was going to send 100 men with secret orders to kill Jon but they don't seem to have arrived yet. Tywin also refuses to send aid if I recall correctly. So I doubt they have many loyal men there. It's not like the House was ever a great friend to the Watch.

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13 hours ago, Aldarion said:

3) Ramsay hates the word "bastard" - but Theon, having been a "Reek" under Ramsay, will have learned it to be the highest insult. And the letter is frankly silly in its repetition of "bastard".

He also wouldn't use "crows" as an insult (whereas Mance would have).

Ramsay has been legitimised while Jon has not.  He has no reason to be touchy about his lack of status any more and It's quite possible that he is simply gloating and gratuitously insulting Jon.

Crows could point either way: to the letter being from someone else or to Ramsay's general disdain and insults for the NW.  You have to figure that if only wildlings ever refer to the NW as crows then this is a clear and obvious evidence of forgery in itself and that seems too big and simple a mistake to make.

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The removal of Jon is not yet complete.  Marsh and his men will have to address the bodies of Jon and Wunwun.  Jon is easy to hide in the supplies storage but WW is not gonna be easy to move.  Patrek will be missed and questions will be asked.  The Wildlings are also expecting Jon.  They will be looking for him.  

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1 minute ago, Skahaz mo Kandaq said:

The removal of Jon is not yet complete.  Marsh and his men will have to address the bodies of Jon and Wunwun.  Jon is easy to hide in the supplies storage but WW is not gonna be easy to move.  Patrek will be missed and questions will be asked.  The Wildlings are also expecting Jon.  They will be looking for him.  


I wanna smoke whatever you’re smoking coz it’s clearly great stuff. Seriously. :smoking:

There are a bunch of people around Jon when he is stabbed. The commotion is obviously not conducive to a stealth operation as the one you’re describing. Perhaps re-reading the chapter might help. Then again, it might not. 

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On 10/18/2022 at 5:11 PM, kissdbyfire said:

ndeed. It’s amazing the mental gymnastics and denial of the text (and its author) that people are still going through to try and insert their nonsensical fanfic into the story. 

First off, hello! Haven't been on in a while, happy to see a friendly name pop up. But yeah, aren't people great? haha 

 

On 10/18/2022 at 5:11 PM, kissdbyfire said:

I’d say it got worse w/ the attempt on Jon’s life, but to me it started when that moron decided to ‘prove his worth’ and steal Val. 

ahh yes, I agree. 

On 10/18/2022 at 5:11 PM, kissdbyfire said:

Can’t  wait to see the free folk (plus majority of the black brothers) taking over the NW and throwing the treasonous cowards in an ice cell. B)

:bowdown::commie:

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On 10/24/2022 at 3:49 PM, Quoth the raven, said:

Ramsay Bolton may not attack Castle Black.  Bowen Marsh will take charge and send assurances to send Arya and Reek back.  Selyse and Shireen will be abandoned by her men. 

What will happen then, when the pomegranate cannot make good on his assurances? Because he has neither fArya or Reek....

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On 10/24/2022 at 4:06 PM, Quoth the raven, said:

All Bowen needs to do is give his word of compliance if Arya and Reek come to the wall.  We know it won't happen but Bowen and Ramsay do not.  Look at it from Bowen's side.  Arya and Reek are apt to die before they can reach the wall.  He can have them taken into custody and sent back to WF if they happen to make it. 

I must've missed the civil letter Ramsay sent merely asking for compliance if fArya & Theon show up at the wall.... It has been a while but iirc Ramsay demanded fArya, Theon, Melisandre, Selyse, & Shireen didn't he? Why would Ramsay cede with a promise to comply IF fArya & Theon show up there? 

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