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Immediate consequences of Jon's betrayal of the NW


Rondo
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There are times when breaking with ingrained traditions, man-made rules and even renegging on oaths is necessary for a positive change to occur. The path down that road is perilous but often worth it in the broader perspective of life. That's my take way from Jon's arc so far. Where would we be if we had conserved all the traditions and regulations governing human existence previously considered so essential to past societies? And we're not even done in the real world. 

As to Jon's assassination, I think there's a real possibility Bowen Marsh and company acted directly on the Bolton's orders. That Marsh secretly and regularly informed the new Warden of the North of all events taking place at the Wall is likely. He would have felt duty bound to do so. Care of the ravens passed to Clydas after Maester Aemon and Sam left and Clydas may have also only have been doing his duty. All this would have played straight into the hands of Bolton and also explains why Ramsay knew of most of the details mentioned in his letter. The Boltons have every reason to eliminate Jon. Unlike Theon, there is no way Jon would identify Jeyne as Arya and that is a threat they cannot afford. With the tension and enmity against them in the North, Jeyne must remain Arya at all cost. What better way to get rid of Jon than through his own men who are already disgruntled because he breaks with age old traditions? 

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You're seeing the immediate consequences now.  Jon got himself and the NW involved in a conflict with Ramsay Bolton.  The pink letter, the admission of guilt at the Shield Hall, Jon's foolish attempts to handle the bad situation he himself had created, and the division among the defenders of the wall.  The only good thing to come of it is Bowen finally got the courage to get rid of Jon and end his terrible leadership at the wall. 

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23 minutes ago, The Commentator said:

The disagreement between the watch and Ramsay will need a quick solution. Jon’s death is one step. It may be enough to stop war. 

No it won't. Because Ramsay said he was going to attack if they didn't hand over the hostages. They don't have the hostages so they can't hand them over. Therefore Ramsay will attack.

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8 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

No it won't. Because Ramsay said he was going to attack if they didn't hand over the hostages. They don't have the hostages so they can't hand them over. Therefore Ramsay will attack.

I don't think the letter was even from Ramsay.  I think the King Beyond the Wall is trying to get the Night's Watch involved, in anticipation of a tough fight between Ramsay and Stannis.

I highly doubt Jon will be resurrected in time to participate in the Battle of Winterfell.  It's gonna come down to Stannis the Mannis, and the hostile Northern Lords sharing the castle with the Boltons.

The only way I could see Jon being involved is if Mellisandre gets him out of his wolf's body and back into his own quicker than expected and he leads the Wildlings in some kind of last-minute surprise attack at the end of the fighting...but I don't see that timeline working out very well.  Whatever happens, it's going to be nothing like the battle depicted on the show.

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LC Jon was the worst calamity to happen to the wall since it was built.  Jon was a moron for starting a feud with the Boltons.  His duties at the wall were the defense to keep the others out. Jon chose his feelings for his sister.   Arya is not important enough to make such a foolish choice.  Jon got his priorities wrong.  A good leader should have his priorities in the right order.  

Bowen must try to sort the wall after Jon.  He can't put it all back together but at least avoid a fight with the wildlings.  He needs to keep as many of the black brothers alive as he can.  

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Bowen doesn't know Arya is a fake.  He will send a letter to Ramsay.  At least he should.  The letter should say Jon has been executed for treason and promise to send Arya back if she should make it to the Wall.  The Watch does not have enough men to force Selyse to turn herself in but the Boltons are welcome to come and take her.  Ramsay's demands are actually understandable when you consider that Jon sent his underlings to take his wife.  Selyse and her people should be required to surrender because Stannis is gone.  They can escape to the other side of the Wall but if they want to stay in Westeros they must formally surrender.  

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5 hours ago, The Gizzard of Oz said:

LC Jon was the worst calamity to happen to the wall since it was built.

Really? I know you hate Jon but surely you can't claim he's worse for the Wall than the Night's King?

5 hours ago, The Gizzard of Oz said:

Jon was a moron for starting a feud with the Boltons.

I think the Boltons were the ones who started the feud.

5 hours ago, The Gizzard of Oz said:

His duties at the wall were the defense to keep the others out.

Which he was doing admirably until Bowen killed him.

5 hours ago, The Gizzard of Oz said:

Jon got his priorities wrong.  A good leader should have his priorities in the right order.

No he didn't, his priority was always defending the wall from the Others, unlike some people who think their pretty disagreements with the Wildlings are more important than the safety of all humanity.

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The immediate consequences of Jon's acts at the NW:

  • For the first time in thousands of years, Jon returned the Watch to its true purpose: to defend against the Others and the wights, rather than to fuel racist hatred against the Free Folk who are only enemies because the Night's Watch wrongly named them as enemies.
  • He saved countless Free Folk.  The Watch is supposed to "serve the realms of men", and they hadn't been doing that.  Free Folk are men... and women and children
  • He strengthened the defenses of the Night's Watch by recruiting Free Folk against a common enemy: the true enemy (although I think the Others are probably more complex than one-note villains, but that's another topic).  Fortresses that have been abandoned are now being re-populated.
  • He tried to repair relations between the North and the Free Folk, founding House Thenn.  A good deed in general, and though people will say that is "treason" because he shouldn't be involved in the affairs of southern realms... an alliance between all different people is critical for the wars to come.
  • He reluctantly accepted the aid of King Stannis.  People call that treason too... but if you plead help from five kings and only one shows up, he better favor Stannis.  Tywin planned to withhold any aid to the Watch unless they named Janos Slynt as lord to treasonously serve as a Lannister mole... so Jon inadvertently further strengthened the Watch by executing that traitor.
  • He negotiated with the Iron Bank to help bring much needed supplies to the Watch... which apparently previous commanders never thought to do.

Much of that will be undone because of Bowen's treason.  Bowen "officially" murdered Jon to stop Jon's own so-called treason, but it was very clear that Bowen was plotting against Jon before the "pink letter" speech.  Jon naming Leathers as master of arms offended Bown because he's a racist, Jon naming Satin as his squire offended Bowen because he's a judgmental hypocrite.  Bowen was such a hateful fool that he'd happily let thousands of Free Folk be wiped out by the Others, too short-sighted to care that their deaths only build the army of the undead.  Then he murdered Jon in front of everyone, which will no doubt lead to a miniature civil war at Castle Black, and damage or destroy the alliance with the Free Folk.

Bowen Marsh is obviously the one to bring disaster on the Night's Watch, undoing all of Jon's good works.

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1 hour ago, StarkTullies said:

The immediate consequences of Jon's acts at the NW:

  • For the first time in thousands of years, Jon returned the Watch to its true purpose: to defend against the Others and the wights, rather than to fuel racist hatred against the Free Folk who are only enemies because the Night's Watch wrongly named them as enemies.
  • He saved countless Free Folk.  The Watch is supposed to "serve the realms of men", and they hadn't been doing that.  Free Folk are men... and women and children
  • He strengthened the defenses of the Night's Watch by recruiting Free Folk against a common enemy: the true enemy (although I think the Others are probably more complex than one-note villains, but that's another topic).  Fortresses that have been abandoned are now being re-populated.
  • He tried to repair relations between the North and the Free Folk, founding House Thenn.  A good deed in general, and though people will say that is "treason" because he shouldn't be involved in the affairs of southern realms... an alliance between all different people is critical for the wars to come.
  • He reluctantly accepted the aid of King Stannis.  People call that treason too... but if you plead help from five kings and only one shows up, he better favor Stannis.  Tywin planned to withhold any aid to the Watch unless they named Janos Slynt as lord to treasonously serve as a Lannister mole... so Jon inadvertently further strengthened the Watch by executing that traitor.
  • He negotiated with the Iron Bank to help bring much needed supplies to the Watch... which apparently previous commanders never thought to do.

Much of that will be undone because of Bowen's treason.  Bowen "officially" murdered Jon to stop Jon's own so-called treason, but it was very clear that Bowen was plotting against Jon before the "pink letter" speech.  Jon naming Leathers as master of arms offended Bown because he's a racist, Jon naming Satin as his squire offended Bowen because he's a judgmental hypocrite.  Bowen was such a hateful fool that he'd happily let thousands of Free Folk be wiped out by the Others, too short-sighted to care that their deaths only build the army of the undead.  Then he murdered Jon in front of everyone, which will no doubt lead to a miniature civil war at Castle Black, and damage or destroy the alliance with the Free Folk.

Bowen Marsh is obviously the one to bring disaster on the Night's Watch, undoing all of Jon's good works.

I wish I could give more than just 'thanks' to this.

Also it's not like Jon/the Watch really had a choice with accepting Stannis' aid. He'd just saved them and had more men then they did.

And Janos was threatening the integrity of the institution with his plotting and repeated subordination.

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2 hours ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

I don't think Jon Snow will be resurrected by Mel and be allowed to leave the Watch. His Nights Watch duty lasts for all nights to come.  He will live on in Ghost.

I don't see Melisandre resurrecting Jon either. But neither do I see him living in Ghost's body for long. It would be a dead end to his story. Either he is not dead, but I don't believe it. Or he will come back as a kind of Other. Maybe a kind of NK.

He will then achieve an understanding with the Others, a pact maybe. Then, instead of zombies killing everyone, the Others will work with him to fix what they came for. To fix the stuff that displease the gods.

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Bowen is not the long-term solution for the command position.  Men have a preference for boldness.  He is not that.  But he should do what he can to send assurances to the Warden of the North that the watch will follow the law and stay neutral from now on.  He can send out an announcement that Jon has been removed and is no longer a threat. 

He should ask for the return of Mance Rayder so that the criminal can be executed as a deserter and a traitor. 

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On 4/27/2022 at 10:15 AM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Let's start with the errors in your post. 

-Lord Commander Snow did not betray the NW. He intended on answering a threat to himself & the NW. 

Indeed. It’s amazing the mental gymnastics and denial of the text (and its author) that people are still going through to try and insert their nonsensical fanfic into the story. 

 

On 4/27/2022 at 10:15 AM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

-Roose Bolton has naught to do with it, it is Ramsay 

Right. And Roose isn’t popular, but Ramsay is despised by the vast, vast majority in the north. 

On 4/27/2022 at 10:15 AM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

-The chaos started because of the stabbing of the Lord Commander. 
 

I’d say it got worse w/ the attempt on Jon’s life, but to me it started when that moron decided to ‘prove his worth’ and steal Val. 

 

On 4/27/2022 at 10:15 AM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

- I highly doubt most will side with Bowen, even if they disagreed with Jon's decision, they won't back murder & multiny. 
 

Agree, the majority won’t side with the Pomegranate bean counter. It’s right there in the text, but it’s hard to argue when the text is ignored because ‘reasons’. 

On 4/27/2022 at 10:15 AM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

The rest is fanfic with no basis in the text. 
 

Yes, it is, and it’s bad fanfic because it doesn’t even make sense! :lmao:

 

On 4/27/2022 at 10:15 AM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

1. What reason do you have to believe Wun-Wun will be killed, let alone without trouble? 
 

I imagine it’s because the person you’re replying to believes the NW will mostly side with Bowen? At any rate, it doesn’t even matter that much? 

On 4/27/2022 at 10:15 AM, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

3. Why would Bowen try to stop the wildlings? He doesn't want them there & if someone doesn't confront Ramsay he intends on attacking the NW. He told them as much. 
 

Can’t  wait to see the free folk (plus majority of the black brothers) taking over the NW and throwing the treasonous cowards in an ice cell. B)

 

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On 10/14/2022 at 1:08 PM, Craving Peaches said:

No it won't. Because Ramsay said he was going to attack if they didn't hand over the hostages. They don't have the hostages so they can't hand them over. Therefore Ramsay will attack.

Of course it won’t, it doesn’t make sense and goes against what we learn in the books. But if it doesn’t fit w/ someone’s fave pet theory, just discard and ignore it, that’s the M.O. for many around here. Now, it’s possible Ramsay doesn’t get a chance to attack the NW, but that’s a different story.
I also don’t believe for a second that Jon is dead. He’ll be out of commission for a while, but he’s not dead yet b/c his story isn’t over. And don’t even get me started on the idea that Jon’s dead but will live on in Ghost and mate with Nymeria and have a litter of direpups. Yeah, that’s a favourite ‘theory’ for some around here and it’s just :lol:

Edited by kissdbyfire
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On 4/26/2022 at 5:49 PM, Rondo said:

Lord Commander Jon Snow betrayed the NW and dragged the ancient Brotherhood into conflict with Roose Bolton.  The immediate consequence is chaos within Castle Black.  This unrest will spread to the other forts on the wall and will lead to a divided Brotherhood.  While most will agree with Bowen Marsh, there will undoubtedly be some who will disagree with the assassination of their lord commander.  Regardless of how erratic and incompetent Jon was, he was their elected lord commander.  What will happen shortly after Jon takes his last breath:

  1. Wun the Giant will be killed but not without trouble.
  2. Bowen Marsh will take over as the interim Lord Commander.  He will organize Castle Black but the wildlings will not be placated.
  3. I do not think Bowen and the Brother will be able to stop the wildlings from leaving the castle to attack the Boltons.
  4. The Weeper and his people will come calling just when the castle is in disorder.

What else?

Jon's body should be presented to Lord Ramsay to prove that the man who caused all the bother is gone.  Bran's dream shows it won't happen that way.  Or maybe it will.  They were putting him in the ice cells to preserve his body for transport to Ramsay. 

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5 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

Indeed. It’s amazing the mental gymnastics and denial of the text (and its author) that people are still going through to try and insert their nonsensical fanfic into the story. 

 

Right. And Roose isn’t popular, but Ramsay is despised by the vast, vast majority in the north. 

I’d say it got worse w/ the attempt on Jon’s life, but to me it started when that moron decided to ‘prove his worth’ and steal Val. 

 

Agree, the majority won’t side with the Pomegranate bean counter. It’s right there in the text, but it’s hard to argue when the text is ignored because ‘reasons’. 

Yes, it is, and it’s bad fanfic because it doesn’t even make sense! :lmao:

 

I imagine it’s because the person you’re replying to believes the NW will mostly side with Bowen? At any rate, it doesn’t even matter that much? 

Can’t  wait to see the free folk (plus majority of the black brothers) taking over the NW and throwing the treasonous cowards in an ice cell. B)

 

Welcome back yo! :cheers:

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8 hours ago, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

Jon's body should be presented to Lord Ramsay to prove that the man who caused all the bother is gone.  Bran's dream shows it won't happen that way.  Or maybe it will.  They were putting him in the ice cells to preserve his body for transport to Ramsay. 

I’m sure Bowen would like to do just that, being the coward that he is. Bowen always wants to ingratiate himself w/ whoever he thinks will ‘win’ in any given situation, w/o consideration to right or wrong - and that’s what weak cowards do, and that’s why he will never be a true leader. That’s what he wanted to do w/ Tywin…

The problem here is that he won’t be able to do that. Bowen will have one of two fates: ice cell or death, and I’m rooting for the latter. 

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