Formula 1 2024

[Werthead]

Verstappen still on top but the margin to Ferrari was not anywhere near as huge as last year (we have to wait to see if Verstappen's race pace outshines everyone again though), and Mercedes just about managed to get in there and mix things up. Alonso doing very well again, and McLaren staking out that lower-half-of-Q3 spot they ended in last year.

Hamilton starting off on the back foot. He usually recovers but Mercedes really needs both drivers with their heads in the game or they'll lose a possible 2nd place to Ferrari early on.

If Perez is going to be finished in the 4-7 spot in the early races with both Ferraris and at least one Mercedes able to split the Red Bulls, then Red Bull's shot at the constructor's will be in jeopardy. He needs to sharpen up or he might be out before the halfway point of the season. Sergeant also looked good for about ten minutes then got completely obliterated by Albon. He needs to sharpen that up quickly.

Haas also looking like they're locking in good quali pace but their race pace may still be worse. We'll see tomorrow.

Alpine...fucking hell.

13 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

Ha, from elation to despair in 24 hours. Horner is a dirty slag, wonder why the messages weren't shared prior though, I guess there's a chance they aren't legit. 

The messages are pretty mild and cringey though. They do indicate the female employee was to some degree receptive and encouraging of them, at least to start with, though. They come across as unprofessional and you might give someone a warning for them, but not fire them instantly (some claims there was a dick pic in there, which is fireable, but apparently it was just his finger; I declined to investigate personally). I wouldn't want to be in his home life for a few weeks though.

Ben Sulayem is a shit-heel though. Making a big play of embracing and hugging Horner, then posting a picture from 2003 of him hanging out with Prince Andrew and saying it was awesome.

[BigFatCoward]

15 hours ago, Werthead said:

The messages are pretty mild and cringey though. 

I bet Geri doesn't think they were mild. If I got caught sending them I'd be in a hotel room right now. 

Edited March 2 by BigFatCoward

[Werthead]

5 hours ago, BigFatCoward said:

I bet Geri doesn't think they were mild. If I got caught sending them I'd be in a hotel room right now. 

I suspect next time they host a shooting party at their mansion, he'll be the one running from her with the shotgun whilst Danny Ric guffaws in the background.

[Werthead]

So a dominant zzz victory for Max. The consolation prizes will be somewhat slim: Sainz beating Leclerc to the podium will give him a boost as he looks for another 2025 drive. The Ferrari seems to have eliminated its harder tyre wear problem from last year and its race pace looks improved, but not enough to stay in touch with the Red Bull in the race. Ferrari seem to have an edge on Mercedes, and Mercedes have a worrying battery reliability issue they'll be looking at sorting ASAP. Hamilton losing all battery power for two laps badly damaged his race and Russell's early competitiveness fell away as he had to manage overheating on the battery, a problem both Williams seemed to suffer from as well.

Aston Martin and RB-Cashapp-Visa-WTF failed to capitalise on testing form, which they'll be disappointed by, and Kick Sauber's Stake Off seemed to do worse than expected. Alpine look like they're in for a world of hurt.

It feels like McLaren, Mercedes and Ferrari are all one good upgrade away from mixing it up more with Red Bull, but only if Red Bull themselves don't improve much, and there's no guarantee anyone will deliver that. McLaren seemed to have a really good understanding of the Red Bull car though (Andreas Seidl apparently identified the advantages of all the new features of the Red Bull immediately, and noted where McLaren went too conservative in not doing similar things), so maybe they have a shot later in the season of closing up.

[Iskaral Pust]

Not an exciting race.  Not just because Verstappen won so comfortably but because the second half of the race had most of the drivers quite spaced out with little over-taking or dueling.  When the qualifying times were so closely grouped, I was expecting more of a shootout for P2-8.

I know the Verstappen dominance gets criticized for ruining the unpredictability and competitiveness of the races but I take the view that we’re watching one of the greatest all-time drivers and just appreciate his excellence for what it is and look elsewhere for nail-biting competition.  It’s not as if he’s just cruising to victory by outspending everyone else on development, he’s just legitimately able to deliver speed, race management and car/tire management for 2 hours in any conditions.  Probably Federer would have made tennis boring without Nadal competing with him but I still would have enjoyed watching him play.

Looking elsewhere today: Sainz raced well to a podium finish and has a point to prove as he loses his seat to Hamilton.  I expect both Merc and RB are talking to him already.  I know Ricciardo is a favorite of Horner’s but he doesn’t look like he deserves a RB seat again.  Ferrari’s race pace and reliability looked pretty solid today, and they have two very good qualifying drivers.  Perhaps we’ll see in future races whether Verstappen is so dominant without clean air and empty track ahead of him all race.

[Loge]

On 2/6/2024 at 10:23 PM, Werthead said:

This off-season has been the craziest in some time.

Christian Horner is now being investigated for highly inappropriate behaviour at Red Bull towards a female colleague, which he is vigorously denying. However, Red Bull's parent company have stepped in to handle the investigation (overruling the racing team's internal HR process) and have brought in external investigators. Reportedly they are keen to avoid damage to the brand and they do not want it hanging over them for the car launch on 15 February, let alone the season start on 29 February, so unless they can wrap this up very quickly in Horner's favour, it looks like he might be booted. Also, the relationship between the parent company in Salzburg and the race team in Milton Keynes has become more fractious since Dietrich Mateschitz passed away in 2022, with apparent rumours of a rift between Horner and the new owners.

It's a bit more complicated. Dietrich Mateschitz owned 49% of the company but could run it as if he owned 100%. When he died his son Mark inherited the 49% but not the right to run the company. The other 51% are owned by Chalerm Yoovidhya, the heir of the Thai co-founder, who wants a say in the running of the company. Looks like the folks at Fuschl headquarters don't like that. As for the F1 team, Horner has Yoovidhya's backing, but not that of the Austrian faction. 

Meanwhile, Jos Verstappen has openly called for Horner's removal.

Edited March 3 by Loge

[Loge]

double post.

Edited March 3 by Loge

[Werthead]

Yup, the question is now is if Jos is working as a stalking horse for Max (they have disagreed in the past) or if he's just spouting off his own head.

There is an interesting thought that if Horner goes, the whole operation could unravel, Newey could go to Ferrari etc. Interesting to see if that happens.

[Iskaral Pust]

It’s wild that internecine politics could derail such a successful enterprise at its peak.  You would think that factions could rub along together during the good times and wait to get the knives out when the success falters.

[TheLastWolf]

21 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Ferrari’s race pace and reliability looked pretty solid today, and they have two very good qualifying drivers.

Bodes well for Ham next season, though no consolation this one gonna be pure pain

[Werthead]

3 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

It’s wild that internecine politics could derail such a successful enterprise at its peak.  You would think that factions could rub along together during the good times and wait to get the knives out when the success falters.

Well, this is opportunistic based on the complaints that have emerged about Horner. Jos sees this as an opportunity that may not recur for some considerable time, if ever.

But assuming Jos' goal is for Max to win everything going forwards (even though Max seems serious when he suggests he could retire from F1 after 2028, despite only being 30 then), getting rid of a key architect of RB's success is a chancy thing to risk.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

On 3/3/2024 at 6:18 AM, Loge said:

Meanwhile, Jos Verstappen has openly called for Horner's removal.

It would take all of 5 seconds for Horner to get hired by another team. 

[Lord of Oop North]

On 2/24/2024 at 3:07 PM, Werthead said:

...and Steiner and Binotto's bromance in the vineyards of Italy feels like a pilot for a new spin-off show.

Wine to Survive

[Werthead]

This has turned into full-blown Game of Thrones.

So Red Bull is internal war between the Austrian-based owners, representing the deceased original founder of the company, and the Thai-based owners, who hold a marginal majority. The Austrian owners have fallen out with Horner and want Horner gone. Inside the team, it appears that Helmut Marko has turned against Horner due to Horner not backing him strongly enough in his various gaffe episodes. Max Verstappen's support is lacklustre at best and Jos Verstappen is backing Horner's removal.

However, the Thai mild-majority owners support Horner, as does the majority of the factory staff. With the team's current utter dominance, a lot of floating voters within Red Bull are minded to back Horner, especially after the internal review cleared him of wrongdoing. Car designer Newey's position is unclear, however, which is dangerous given how he would be immediately snapped up by any other team on the grid for vast amounts of money (Mercedes and Ferrari being the obvious contenders, but Aston Martin, McLaren and Williams would also pounce for him without a second's hesitation).

Horner is also backed by Mohammed Ben Sulayem, the head of the FIA, the sporting organisation which owns the F1 name. However, Ben Sulayem is widely despised within F1. Multiple stakeholders, including apparently most of Liberty Media (who own F1 itself) and at least some of the teams, want Ben Sulayem sacked. Ben Sulayem has been focusing on an "anti-woke" approach to F1, trying to curb political statements and comments (some unhinged rumours he's even floated returning the Russian Grand Prix to the calendar, but it was made clear that was a non-starter), making it clear he's supporting Horner even if Horner had actually molested someone, and taking pride in his friendship with Prince Andrew. Ben Sulayem has also been trying to wield more power than the FIA really has. It's come to light in the last 48 hours he directly interfered in penalties handed out at the Saudi Arabia Grand Prix in 2023 and also tried to stop the Las Vegas Grand Prix going ahead at the last minute on safety grounds. Both of these are operational decisions far outside his remit, and would constitute interference in the internal operations of a Grand Prix which the FIA has absolutely no authority over.

Ben Sulayem also asked Max Verstappen to back Horner at the Bahrain Grand Prix, but Verstappen told him to effectively sod off. 

F1 might now call for Ben Sulayem being sacked and, if that is refused, could always consider the nuclear option of removing itself from FIA oversight, which is something they've talked about for years (amongst other things, they'd save the $40 million they spend every year just to use the bloody name). F1 would have to get a new name, but that's not a massive deal; the FIA could put on an opposing championship, but without Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull etc and probably taking several years to spool up, that would be a sham.

Edited March 5 by Werthead

[Iskaral Pust]

Verstappen (the younger and less despicable) and Newey will have the casting votes in this palace coup.  I don’t think the rest matter much apart from fueling the drama.

it reminds me of a fun quote, whose provenance I don’t recall, along the lines of: Formula 1 is full of high drama except for two hours on Sundays.

[Werthead]

Max Verstappen has refused to back Horner and has said his father "is not a liar," but did indicate his father sometimes represents his own views and not Max's. So he seems to be keeping his powder dry at the moment.

[Loge]

Rumors about Marko being sacked. And Max Verstappen heading for Mercedes.

[Werthead]

Apparently Helmut Marko was ordered not to talk to the media by one wing of Red Bull (presumably the Thai one). He immediately disobeyed and started talking to German media.

At Jeddah, Max has said that if Marko was sacked, he "would have a big problem" with Red Bull. What happens if Marko is suspended, which Marko has said is a possibility, is unclear.

Toto Wolff has apparently said he'd be happy to employ Marko as an advisor to Mercedes if he was ousted from Red Bull.

The BBC's Andrew Benson hinting in the BBC podcast that the woman who started the complaint against Horner feels very angry about her own suspension and may come forward publicly (with the intimation that the BBC is negotiating with her to get her story ASAP).

This is wild. Verstappen could ditch Red Bull mid-season - or even three races into the season! - whilst leading the championship, with no other team to go to (right now, 2025 would be a very different story). That'd be - quite possibly - the craziest thing to have ever happened in F1.

ETA: Stories now spreading that Marko was the one who leaked the information about Horner. What the fuck.

Edited March 8 by Werthead

[williamjm]

Away from the off-track drama it was a predictable front row but behind there was an impressive performance by Oliver Bearman to take 11th having had only one practice session to learn the car. There were some mistakes in there, but he's showing plenty of potential.

[Loge]

8 hours ago, Werthead said:

The BBC's Andrew Benson hinting in the BBC podcast that the woman who started the complaint against Horner feels very angry about her own suspension and may come forward publicly (with the intimation that the BBC is negotiating with her to get her story ASAP).

Her name is already out: Fiona Hewitson. She was Horner's personal assistant.