NBA Playoffs - Joker's Wild

[Tywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah, that seems to be what the market thinks, but I disagree.  I don't think Scoot or Miller are worth that much more compared to who they can get at six (one of the Thompson twins or Whitmore would be who I'd target).  Especially considering this draft is pretty deep on 2s/wings, and a couple guys that have dropped and I like will very likely be available at 11 too - Keyonte George and Nick Smith.  Frankly, there's the probabilistic argument that it'd be better to take two rolls of the dice anyway.

I haven't looked into the prospects that much outside of the top three. 6 and 12 are tricky spots in general. You can hit at either, but it's just a guessing game at that point.

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ETA:  Oh, and yeah, I don't think any of the big names out there are worth it.  As you said, I've soured on Brown after the playoffs.

If Dame was younger he'd make all the sense in the world, but realistically the Magic are still a few years away from doing anything serious and he needs to go to a team that can maximize his next two seasons. Orlando has a lot of talent so maybe what they really need are a few vets to teach the kids. I just don't think keeping both picks makes a ton of sense, but as we've both said I don't see an obvious trade either. 

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I haven't looked into the prospects that much outside of the top three.

Honestly for me it's just top two.  I really like Scoot, but I'd still group Miller in with the guys that will be available at 6 - which, btw, he was for most of the (college) season.

I know you didn't ask, but I could talk myself into Jarace Walker at 6 too.  Anthony Black is being mocked to them there a lot, I'd be less enthused but I wouldn't be mad.  I think Taylor Hendricks or Gradey Dick would be reaches at 6.  And again, at 11 they could get whomever's dropped.

Even though a backup 5 is a pretty big need for Orlando, I really hope they just draft the best two wings available (my ideal would Ausar Thompson - who I like more than Amen - and Dick dropping to them at 11).  My hope is they fill the backup center job by signing Jakob Poeltl.  

And yeah, Lillard would be perfect if he were 5 years younger.

[Tywin et al.]

26 minutes ago, DMC said:

Honestly for me it's just top two.  I really like Scoot, but I'd still group Miller in with the guys that will be available at 6 - which, btw, he was for most of the (college) season.

I know you didn't ask, but I could talk myself into Jarace Walker at 6 too.  Anthony Black is being mocked to them there a lot, I'd be less enthused but I wouldn't be mad.  I think Taylor Hendricks or Gradey Dick would be reaches at 6.  And again, at 11 they could get whomever's dropped.

Even though a backup 5 is a pretty big need for Orlando, I really hope they just draft the best two wings available (my ideal would Ausar Thompson - who I like more than Amen - and Dick dropping to them at 11).  My hope is they fill the backup center job by signing Jakob Poeltl.  

And yeah, Lillard would be perfect if he were 5 years younger.

The Magic are just in a tricky spot. You have the player to build around, even if he might end up needing to be your second best player, but overall the team is loaded with a lot of decent young players with upside. Two more lottery picks will probably be just more of that. You need to find an All-Star level player to pair up with PB and then figure everything else out. Can you get that guy at 6? Yeah, but in most drafts after the first few picks it's just random as hell. I like the idea of trading the two picks and maybe future ones and/or a young player, it's just hard to figure out who makes sense. I agree a wing would be ideal especially if you believe Suggs will improve or is at least a good enough PG, but the who is hard. That's why Beal came to mind because I think he wouldn't be that expensive (us trading what we did for Gobert kinda fucks everything up though). 

The one player I'd be really afraid of that probably is on the market is Randle. You could buy cheap and in theory he might fit, but I don't believe in him at all. 

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Magic are just in a tricky spot.

I dunno, I'm fine being patient and just accumulating assets right now.  I mean, that basically seemed to be your point to begin with.

Especially considering they played .500 ball last year once they got healthy and had great chemistry.  That's not something I'm too gung-ho about messing with just for a Bradley Beal - and definitely not a Julius Randle.  I think you're somewhat exaggerating the difference in production between, say, the third pick and the sixth pick historically.

[Tywin et al.]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

I dunno, I'm fine being patient and just accumulating assets right now.  I mean, that basically seemed to be your point to begin with.

It's probably what I would do, but they do need to get a second star.

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Especially considering they played .500 ball last year once they got healthy and had great chemistry.  That's not something I'm too gung-ho about messing with just for a Bradley Beal - and definitely not a Julius Randle.  I think you're somewhat exaggerating the difference in production between, say, the third pick and the sixth pick historically.

The roster is more talented than their record was, but unless PB makes a massive leap they're probably at best a 7 or 8 seed next year. They need to add a difference maker and that's probably not going to happen with either pick.

You're right though, the difference in picks doesn't matter that much outside of the first two or three. I did a breakdown here a few years back and basically over the last 20 years or so there's as roughly as many All-stars from the teens or later as there is in slots 6-10. 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

It's probably what I would do, but they do need to get a second star.

I'm not sure why you don't think Franz Wagner can be that second star.  He'll be 22 in August and made steady improvement in his second year.

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The roster is more talented than their record was, but unless PB makes a massive leap they're probably at best a 7 or 8 seed next year.

Probably, sure.  That's the patience part!

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You're right though, the difference in picks doesn't matter that much outside of the first two or three. I did a breakdown here a few years back and basically over the last 20 years or so there's as roughly as many All-stars from the teens or later as there is in slots 6-10. 

I'd emphasize it depends on the draft -- plus of course there's the history of second picks being busts.  Anyway, like I said, for me this draft is Wemby >>>>> Scoot >> everybody else.

[Tywin et al.]

35 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'm not sure why you don't think Franz Wagner can be that second star.  He'll be 22 in August and made steady improvement in his second year.

He feels like a decent third option. Two might be a stretch and we don't know yet if PB is a one or a two yet. A major building block for sure, but we need to see if he takes that leap.

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I'd emphasize it depends on the draft -- plus of course there's the history of second picks being busts.  Anyway, like I said, for me this draft is Wemby >>>>> Scoot >> everybody else.

That's kind of why I'd want to try and trade the picks plus a few more for someone established, but we agree it's unclear who that could be at the moment. Perhaps what you mentioned before about trying to get the second or third pick with them is the smart play, but Idk how much more it will cost. Probably at least another pick and a nice young player you don't want to give up. 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

He feels like a decent third option.

Oh I disagree.  I think he clearly has a good chance to develop into a perennial all-star, which is good enough for plenty of championship teams.  Not every team needs to be a super-team.

[Tywin et al.]

24 minutes ago, DMC said:

Oh I disagree.  I think he clearly has a good chance to develop into a perennial all-star, which is good enough for plenty of championship teams.  Not every team needs to be a super-team.

Maybe and no you don't need a super team to win a championship. I just don't see him and PB being a combo that's going to take you bast the second round unless they both make massive leaps. But like you said, patience. 

[DMC]

19 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

But like you said, patience. 

Yeah.  What I would say about Wagner is if you look at his second/age 21 season, it compares very favorably to most elite wings not named LeBron or Luka.  Obviously there are other guys that stagnate or worse, but he seems a high character guy, so that usually helps.

[BigFatCoward]

Jokic is having an insane post season, i think he's using the perceived MVP snub as additional motivation. His triple double total in the playoffs might never be beaten. 

[baxus]

He doesn't care one bit about Embiid being MVP. He's had a couple of interviews in Serbian over the season and has said he doesn't care and he'd prefer if everyone just kept him out of MVP conversation. Said that all that talking about MVP race only does is annoy him.

I mean, the guy received an MVP trophy last season in his stable in Sombor. Does that look like being an MVP is a priority for him?

Edited June 8, 2023 by baxus

[BigFatCoward]

Saying you don't care isn't the same as not caring. You don't get to be that good ar any sport without being ultra competitive. 

[Proudfeet]

Its a team sport and its a dumb award. Just because you are competitive doesn't mean you are also vain.

[DMC]

31 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Saying you don't care isn't the same as not caring. You don't get to be that good ar any sport without being ultra competitive. 

Agreed.  It's definitely a good approach for Jokic to take, but he definitely cares on some level.  And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that.

[baxus]

58 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Saying you don't care isn't the same as not caring. You don't get to be that good ar any sport without being ultra competitive. 

No denying that.

Still, an MVP trophy is not the only thing you can be ultra competitive about, is it?

He's won it twice so while it likely is on his list of priorities, I don't imagine it's that highly ranked.

[Tywin et al.]

Regular season MVP is kind of dumb. If Joker wins the Finals MVP he's automatically a top 25 all-time player in my book.

He's always going to be one of the most confusing athletes ever if you just look at him, especially considering he looks tired as fuck after just a few minutes in nearly every game. 

Edited June 8, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[David Selig]

On 6/7/2023 at 4:45 AM, Tywin et al. said:

He feels like a decent third option. Two might be a stretch and we don't know yet if PB is a one or a two yet. A major building block for sure, but we need to see if he takes that leap.

Wagner is already better than some third options on championship teams and he's just a sophomore. He basically carried us all season, we were a dreadful team pretty much every time he went to the bench. Banchero got most of the hype this season, but in terms of impact Wagner was on a completely different level. He may well end up being a better player than Banchero.

[DMC]

Let's be clear, Banchero had one the top 20-25ish rookie seasons ever, and basically the company he's in are all all-time greats other than Blake Griffin.  Also, while he was a year older, there's this:

 

[Tywin et al.]

24 minutes ago, David Selig said:

Wagner is already better than some third options on championship teams and he's just a sophomore. He basically carried us all season, we were a dreadful team pretty much every time he went to the bench. Banchero got most of the hype this season, but in terms of impact Wagner was on a completely different level. He may well end up being a better player than Banchero.

I'm not going to lie and say I watch a ton of Magic games. The few I did he didn't really jump out to me like PB did. Looking at his numbers, even if you expect there to be a third year jump, he just seems like at best a fringe All-Star. PB is the much better prospect, but I'm not sure if he can even be a top 10 player and typically you need that to make deep runs. Hence why I said they need to add someone else that is at least a top 25 level player. Hopefully the kids will grow, but as of right now I don't see the two being a 1-2 punch on a contender a few years from now.