Renly was never going to succeed as king

[sweetsunray]

8 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

The books are really clear that people genuinely loved Renly, we are told so multiple times.

The smallfolk didn't know Renly. He just looked the part to them. I would never refer to this as "genuine love".

[Alester Florent]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

1) Why then did 4000 not go over to Stannis

2) Ser Cortnay offered to bend the knee to any king who would send him help, because he feared for Edric Storm. This was not out of loyalty to Renly or to a potential other Baratheon heir. If that was the case he could have attempted to proclaim Edric Storm as claimant and get the Tyrells to smash Stannis at the Walls of SE. 

3) I did not claim that the 16000 who went over to Stannis were loyal ones. Even Stannis did not believe that or expected they would be. My point was that those 16000 were opportunistic. 

4) A man who manages to get 4000 men to march in the freezing cold to a crofter's village and have them remain there as they starve without mutiny commands loyalty, period. That's why they ended up being dubbed as King's Men. On top of that both castellans of Dragonstone and Storm's End remain loyal as well. They know that Stannis will not return and basically abandoned them. Heck he even has the Antler Men inside KL working of their own volition to try and help him acquire KL.

Note: I'm not claiming that Stannis is popular or better. I'm saying that Stannis proves to be far better in acquiring exactly what Renly desires from bannermen than Renly made Stannis out to be capable of to Cat before he was assassinated. And that Renly's popularity and charm didn't do much for him in that department than could be expected from his opportunistic in-laws and bannermen.

We can only speculate on exactly what was going through the heads of everyone at Storm's End in the catastrophe that was Renly's death. Nobody knew what happened in Renly's tent except Cat (even Brienne isn't sure) or that it was Stannis who killed him, only that Renly is dead. Renly's cause and line died with him, so there wasn't a clear figure to rally around. "Loyalty to Renly" in that moment is meaningless: there's nothing left to be loyal to.

In that environment, most of the Stormlords will have turned to Stannis as someone to whom they still had some residual loyalty, and the last of the Baratheons. The Reach lords will have broken down differently: many of them dislike Stannis, believe he dislikes them, or are fearful of his reputation and policies, and won't want to follow him. Some of them may not have any real quarrel with Joffrey and the Lannisters and followed Renly for his own sake, and think it's sensible to retreat to see how the situation broke down before committing themselves. Some of them on the other hand may be opposed to Joffrey, have believed Stannis's story of incest, or feel Stannis is now their natural ally. For the Florents, of course, Stannis is family. And many of the people who found themselves going one way or the other will have been following a leader who may not have explained their decision.

Opportunism of course cuts both ways. The Antler Men were the opposition to Joffrey within King's Landing. It seems almost certain that they'd have conspired in Renly's favour had he been the one outside the gates. It's probably suggestive of the antipathy towards Joffrey and Tyrion more than any particular loyalty towards Stannis within KL.

The main reason Ser Cortnay doesn't surrender to Stannis is because of Edric, but he was clearly loyal to Renly too: that's entirely evident from the venom he spits at Renly's former bannermen and the list he reels off of Renly's closer friends. Again, though, loyalty to Renly is irrelevant in this instance because Renly's dead. It comes up only because Renly's former kingsguard are trying to play on his loyalty to Renly to induce him to switch sides, and he's discounting it as a factor.

But Renly never had a chance for his bannermen to display the diehard loyalty that Stannis later experiences from some of his men. He was killed before their loyalty could be seriously tested. The only things we can point to are the mass surrender/desertions at the sight of Renly's ghost, and the fact that his rebellion got off the ground at all - pretty much the entirety of two kingdoms took up arms to enforce his rather weak claim (turning down Stannis to do so).

All the evidence points towards Renly's being hugely popular and commanding at least sufficient loyalty from his followers to win the war. Maybe he didn't command the deep, undying loyalty that Stannis seems to (again, among some of his supporters) but there is literally no way of knowing, outside Loras and Brienne, who I don't think we can fairly count. I don't think it's safe to assume that he didn't.

Indeed, it is made very clear to us that Renly was charismatic and well-loved by both nobles and smallfolk. To suggest the contrary is going completely against the text.

Yes, of course, Stannis has his deeply loyal supporters. But they are also relatively few in number, four thousand or so. That's not enough to rule a kingdom or even to take it, as it turns out.

As with all Renly/Stannis threads, I don't see why it has to be a zero-sum game. Admitting that Renly was great doesn't diminish Stannis, unless one is trying to make the argument that it was ok for Stannis to kill him because he was a fool (which I would disagree with in any case). I don't see any inherent contradiction in asserting that Stannis inspires deep loyalty and Renly could also.

Indeed, this seems to be a trait common to all three Baratheon brothers. The difference is that Stannis, the odd one out of the three, is a decidedly niche interest who doesn't hold the same universal appeal as his brothers. We talk about stans: well, let's compare them to music acts. Robert and Renly are pop phenomena, commanding sold-out arenas, merchandising juggernauts, screaming fangirls, news headlines when the band breaks up. Stannis is a niche prog-rock act who's never charted but has some fans who own a van painted like his second album cover and who people have stopped inviting to parties because they keep trying to persuade people to stop what they're doing and sync his music up to classic movies.

We can argue about which is musically superior (and tastes will differ there) but the sincerity of the fanbase in each case is equally real, it's just that one has much more general appeal and is more popular as a result.

Edited September 11, 2023 by Alester Florent

[SeanF]

Sexuality aside, Renly seems as if he could manage the nobility.

i don’t think he would have been a particularly bad king, by the lights of his world, but nothing suggests he would be a particularly good one, either.  He has a casual disregard for human life, thinks nothing of inflicting suffering on his purported subjects, and sees war as a round of feasting and parties.

[Lee-Sensei]

21 hours ago, James Steller said:

I could make this all about how we never have any proof that Renly is a worthy candidate for kingship, that we never see him actually doing his alleged job as Master of Laws, that the most he does is be a charismatic dinner guest (I see you fuming, Peaches ). But for the sake of fairness, let’s assume that Renly did have the potential to be a good king. Hard to be worse than Robert, really, but anyway.

First, Renly will not have a good reputation in King’s Landing. He is a conqueror who first abandoned King’s Landing to the Lannisters (whom the King’s Landing people despise for the sack, Ned Stark’s unholy execution, and the whole starvation thing). But Renly would also be potentially held responsible for that starvation, and not unjustly so. He deliberately chooses to prolong the war and the suffering of the smallfolk for his own game strategy. 
But assuming all that doesn’t affect his kingship, we are still not accounting for the games being played by those around Renly. He would have to put down the armies of Tywin Lannister, Robb Stark, and Balon Greyjoy. Littlefinger has no loyalty to him, nor do Pycelle or Varys. Varys would easily be able to kill him in order to throw the realm into chaos and pave the way for fAegon. And even if Renly did somehow defeat all these people, Daenerys was going to come back to Westeros and fry the Usurper’s brother with some Dracarys action.

Renly's a pretty charming SOB. When he comes in with food for the peasants, I'm sure that they'd accept him. Some of the other houses though... that's much more questionable. I can't imagine someone like Yohn Royce would recognize him, but maybe I'm wrong. Renly would probably have to spend a good amount of time putting down malcontents.

[Wolf's Bane]

21 hours ago, James Steller said:

I could make this all about how we never have any proof that Renly is a worthy candidate for kingship, that we never see him actually doing his alleged job as Master of Laws, that the most he does is be a charismatic dinner guest (I see you fuming, Peaches ). But for the sake of fairness, let’s assume that Renly did have the potential to be a good king. Hard to be worse than Robert, really, but anyway.

First, Renly will not have a good reputation in King’s Landing. He is a conqueror who first abandoned King’s Landing to the Lannisters (whom the King’s Landing people despise for the sack, Ned Stark’s unholy execution, and the whole starvation thing). But Renly would also be potentially held responsible for that starvation, and not unjustly so. He deliberately chooses to prolong the war and the suffering of the smallfolk for his own game strategy. 
But assuming all that doesn’t affect his kingship, we are still not accounting for the games being played by those around Renly. He would have to put down the armies of Tywin Lannister, Robb Stark, and Balon Greyjoy. Littlefinger has no loyalty to him, nor do Pycelle or Varys. Varys would easily be able to kill him in order to throw the realm into chaos and pave the way for fAegon. And even if Renly did somehow defeat all these people, Daenerys was going to come back to Westeros and fry the Usurper’s brother with some Dracarys action.

 

King Renly?  No.  But an older, more mature Renly would have been a capable Hand.  He has skills in politics but whether he has the mentality to lead Westeros through a long, dark winter is highly questionable. 

You misjudge Varys.  He will give Renly a chance.  But like I said, Renly is a politician.  He makes a good Hand but not the leader who can lead Westeros through the dark of winter and back into the light.  That leader is Daenerys Targaryen.  Renly is a calm, level headed young man.  He will kneel and bend his knees if Daenerys comes to Westeros with her Dragons, Dothraki Bloodriders, Unsullied infantrymen, and Sellswords.  Renly is not suicidal. 

[Lord Varys]

20 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Just like Aegon I and Maegor Aegon II and Robert then? Not to mention multiple real life examples such as Macbeth. Yet we don't see the Realm deciding to go into civil war every generation from then on. Also, Renly can very easily set himself up as the 'true heir' by adopting the incest story but with better proof (i.e. the book of lineages and confession from Cersei obtained under interrogation), and excluding Stannis based on religion, as King Jaehaerys promised the Crown would defend the Faith and Stannis attacked the Faith.

Aegon the Conqueror is a foreign monarch conquering a number of countries. He isn't the asshole younger brother of a dead king trying to steal the inheritance of his nephews and older brother. Renly is.

Maegor is eventually cast down and the throne passes back to the rightful bloodline. Ditto with Aegon II. Those cases didn't set lasting bad precedents.

Robert's usurpation was already bad - it is what causes Stannis, Renly, Balon, and Robb to dream about kingship. Had Renly been successful with no better argument or justification than 'I want to be king because I have the biggest army' then things would have been much worse. It would have destroyed succession by primogeniture possibly not only on the royal level.

Post hoc explanations and justifications would not really work as people knew Renly's original non-existent justifications. Also, of course, it depends how he has to deal with the other clamants and pretenders. I daresay Stannis would force Renly to kill him and perhaps also Shireen. Cersei and Tyrion and Tywin would also force him to kill them and the children. They would not back down.

20 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

That's silly. Plenty of real life Kings with Renly's preferences managed to father children and no one doubted their legitimacy. Especially in light of the incest accusations, Renly is going to make sure his children look like him.

You don't know that. He apparently never bedded Margaery so far. Also, we do have an example for that kind of thing happening not only to virile Robert but also to gay Laenor. Hell, if I wanted to steal Renly's stolen throne or cast away my own kingdom I'd just claim that none of his children are his because he couldn't possibly be the father no matter how they looked like. This isn't an exact science, after all.

[Ran]

5 hours ago, SeanF said:

and sees war as a round of feasting and parties.

This is taking Catelyn's perspective, and not Tyrion's.

When he decides he needs to act quickly, he drops all of that and rides hard for Storm's End, so I think he has an appropriate sense that there are times that an army should make the strategic choice to approach the enemy slowly and other times when time is of the essence and it must move quickly.

Edited September 11, 2023 by Ran

[Craving Peaches]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He apparently never bedded Margaery so far.

Then how come he implies to Loras they've not been sleeping with each other for a while? And why does he bring Margaery on campaign with him, which is noted as unusual?

[Hugorfonics]

3 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Then how come he implies to Loras they've not been sleeping with each other for a while?

Such a strange thing to say to your partner 

3 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

And why does he bring Margaery on campaign with him, which is noted as unusual?

I feel so bad for her, especially since after this whole depacle she has to hook up with like a 7 year old 

[Dragonbane]

On 9/10/2023 at 12:29 PM, Ran said:

Robert literally commanded that the corrupt Commander of the City Watch stay in office. Renly had no role in it. The offices filled corruptly in the royal bureaucracy were under the purview of the Master of Coins.

There is no evidence that the role of the Master of Laws includes oversight of the City Watch, the bureaucracy, or any other agency. The evidence we have suggests the role of Master of Laws is solely advisory.

 

 

If I remember well, Renly in AGOT threat Janos of remove him by the office of Golden Cloak Commander... I have another question; Renly in AGOT is 22 years old, it's reasonable think of he was appointed Master of Laws no more than 2-3 years earlier. Who was Master of Laws before him? Hoster?

Edited September 11, 2023 by Dragonbane

[Alester Florent]

28 minutes ago, Dragonbane said:

If I remember well, Renly in AGOT threat Janos of remove him by the office of Golden Cloak Commander... I have another question; Renly in AGOT is 22 years old, it's reasonable think of he was appointed Master of Laws no more than 2-3 years earlier. Who was Master of Laws before him? Hoster?

Information on the first few years of Robert's government is surprisingly threadbare. I doubt this is even being intentionally withheld awaiting a later reveal, as with some of the details of the Rebellion, and is more likely just not considered that interesting or relevant to the story. But after years of speculation it's a bit of a gap for us. We don't know for instance who was Master of Coin before LF, who was Master of Laws before Renly, what persuaded Robert to keep Varys on as Master of Whispers, when the various Kingsguard members were appointed and how (and if they were the first or if some died in the interim). Do we even know who was regent in the Vale while Jon Arryn was in King's Landing?

If I remember rightly, Robert had a couple of uncles (unclear if Baratheons or Estermonts), who may have served on his Small Council before Renly was of age. 

[Dragonbane]

2 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Information on the first few years of Robert's government is surprisingly threadbare. I doubt this is even being intentionally withheld awaiting a later reveal, as with some of the details of the Rebellion, and is more likely just not considered that interesting or relevant to the story. But after years of speculation it's a bit of a gap for us. We don't know for instance who was Master of Coin before LF, who was Master of Laws before Renly, what persuaded Robert to keep Varys on as Master of Whispers, when the various Kingsguard members were appointed and how (and if they were the first or if some died in the interim). Do we even know who was regent in the Vale while Jon Arryn was in King's Landing?

If I remember rightly, Robert had a couple of uncles (unclear if Baratheons or Estermonts), who may have served on his Small Council before Renly was of age. 

For the Vale, Yes, we know. Nestor Royce ruled the Vale in Jon Arryn absence. The LF predecessor only reference is "his ineffective predecessor" I suppose. 

[Ran]

43 minutes ago, Dragonbane said:

Renly in AGOT threat Janos of remove him by the office of Golden Cloak Commander.

It's unclear if he means the small council or the king should kick him out, and certainly isn't clear that he means he could do it himself.

We recently had a debate about Renly and how long he has been Master of Laws, and we basically don't know. The situation with Janos Slynt's corruption coming to light may or may not have happened when Renly was in that office.

[Dragonbane]

1 minute ago, Ran said:

It's unclear if he means the small council or the king should kick him out, and certainly isn't clear that he means he could do it himself.

We recently had a debate about Renly and how long he has been Master of Laws, and we basically don't know. The situation with Janos Slynt's corruption coming to light may or may not have happened when Renly was in that office.

IMHO most probable Renly predecessor was Hoster. In any case, this have no relevance for the story.

[Craving Peaches]

9 minutes ago, Dragonbane said:

If I remember well, Renly in AGOT threat Janos of remove him by the office of Golden Cloak Commander...

Yes, he implies he should be removed if he cannot keep the peace.

Quote

Lord Renly Baratheon was less sympathetic. "If you cannot keep the king's peace, Janos, perhaps the City Watch should be commanded by someone who can."

However, we see that Robert wants Janos to stay where he is, so it is none of the advisors fault that he is still in charge.

[Lord Varys]

19 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Then how come he implies to Loras they've not been sleeping with each other for a while? And why does he bring Margaery on campaign with him, which is noted as unusual?

Renly distinctly ignores Margaery. He is married to Loras. He might be willing to eventually bed her if he needs heirs ... but he is in no rush there.

Not sure how you can assume Renly and Loras haven't been sleeping with each other for a while. Renly didn't pray for quite some time, but that doesn't mean they weren't alone together under different pretext. Loras is the Lord Commander of his Rainbow (Body) Guard, so they can be alone as often or even more often unobserved than Renly and his queen.

[Craving Peaches]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Renly didn't pray for quite some time, but that doesn't mean they weren't alone together under different pretext. Loras is the Lord Commander of his Rainbow (Body) Guard, so they can be alone as often or even more often unobserved than Renly and his queen.

If this were the case why would Renly clearly imply otherwise?

[Lee-Sensei]

On 9/10/2023 at 6:15 PM, sweetsunray said:

The smallfolk didn't know Renly. He just looked the part to them. I would never refer to this as "genuine love".

They don't know most of the high lords, but Renly is one of the ones that are loved by the peasants.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Lee-Sensei said:

They don't know most of the high lords, but Renly is one of the ones that are loved by the peasants.

In KL, the Stormlands, and, one imagines, the Reach. Not in general. The Riverlanders, Vale men, Westermen, Northmen, Dornishmen don't care about Renly.

[SaffronLady]

Does anyone even know what the Vale smallfolk think, though? They seem so out of the general picture of the story.