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Was Doran smart or did he just wasted a oportunity?


Arthur Peres
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13 hours ago, Groo said:

My problem with this is there isn't much rejoicing in Dorne about Robert and Renly's deaths. The Martells aren't sitting around saying "That's Robert and Renly taken care of. Now we just need to take care of the Lannisters." It's clear from all their conversations that their primary hatred was always for the Lannisters.

They are both long dead by the time we see Sunspear for the first time.

Why should they talk about their issues with Robert when Robert is long gone?

13 hours ago, Groo said:

More importantly, they have a very active notion of revenge. They didn't just want Tywin dead. They wanted to be the ones to do it. I think it's more than fair to ask if they blew their chance at revenge during the war. Renly was only a boy during Robert's rebellion. He didn't actually do anything against them. Why not support Renly and thoroughly crush the Lannisters? Why not be cynical about it, too? Support Renly, wipe out the Lannisters, elimate the other Baratheons, and then later support Viserys against Renly?

Because Renly is the brother of the usurper who killed Rhaegar and was fine with the murder of Elia and her children? Because he could never be their ally in a real sense. Also because jumping the Renly bandwagon would give House Martell nothing while causing Dornishmen to bleed for a false king.

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On 10/1/2023 at 4:26 PM, Lord Varys said:

Because Renly is the brother of the usurper who killed Rhaegar and was fine with the murder of Elia and her children? Because he could never be their ally in a real sense. Also because jumping the Renly bandwagon would give House Martell nothing while causing Dornishmen to bleed for a false king.

But still, as others have pointed out, why continue with the revenge plot when everyone who was directly responsible for the deaths of Elia and her children is gone?

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1 hour ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

But still, as others have pointed out, why continue with the revenge plot when everyone who was directly responsible for the deaths of Elia and her children is gone?

My guess, because Doran wants revenge, not justice. Elia and her children were killed because of other people's actions, so her brother wants to do the same. He isn't that noble.

That beautiful Doran's speech about thinking about children before starting a war is full of hypocrisy, because even if Tywin was alive Doran actions against him would hurt inocents. Doran desired take everything that was most valuable to Tywin before he died, which was the future and legace of the house Lannister, and for this to happen the prince would need to eliminate Tywin's family. Cersei and Jaime aren't the kindest of people, but they had no part in the murder of Elia and her children (unless you're counting Jaime's passivity). Neither had Joffrey, Tommem and Myrcella, but they would definitely be (or will) among the victims of Doran's revenge if he really meant what he said. And I believe he meant.

As @Groo said, "...they have a very active notion of revenge. They didn't just want Tywin dead. They wanted to be the ones to do it." And since Tyrion has taken that pleasure from the Martells, they will seek to satisfact themselves with the remaining Lannisters.

Edited by Odej
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He wasted an opportunity, the fact is that Tommen and Ser Pounce are very similar to Rhaenys and Balerion the cat, but there is high probability the Faith Militant could play a role for his death. 

Tommen and Myrcella will die for the prophecy, Myrcella and Rosamund are trapped in Dorne, Tommen is labeled as an abomination just like Aenys, of course they could die for other reasons, Myrcella because of the infection, Rosamund because of an illness, it's possible, so actually they could focus on Lancel, Cersei and Jaime. 

Who cares if Tyene and Nymeria kill Cersei and Lancel? That's pretty good

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I mean what is he suppose to do; side with Renly, Stannis, Robb? Does he have any reason to trust any of the three? Plus there's no way he could help Renly, since a magical shadow baby comes out of nowhere to kill him.

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He never took the risk to take Viserys and Daenerys, they could have waited for Robert invasion to destroy  his army with guerrilla warfare, Doran never insisted to arrange marriages with the people of the Reach, the Lannister army proved to be quite miserable to face Robb in open field

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On 10/3/2023 at 3:11 AM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

But still, as others have pointed out, why continue with the revenge plot when everyone who was directly responsible for the deaths of Elia and her children is gone?

Doesn't matter. It was to a point about killing certain people personally - something Oberyn, for instance, ended up trying. But the important thing is not to destroy Tywin the person but also what Tywin the politician built or tried to build.

Doran's plans are about the destruction of House Baratheon first and House Lannister as the closest ally and pillar on which the Baratheon regime rested, too. Doran wanted to replace Robert and Robert's son(s) with a Targaryen with a Martell taking the role of Cersei.

The notion he lived to just kill Tywin is stupid. As is the idea he would want to use one of Robert's brothers or brats to 'avenge' himself on a family he wanted to see gone. That was never his game.

On 10/3/2023 at 3:56 AM, Odej said:

That beautiful Doran's speech about thinking about children before starting a war is full of hypocrisy, because even if Tywin was alive Doran actions against him would hurt inocents.

You don't understand the speech. It is about Dornish children, not children in general. The Princes of Dorne rule and protect Dorne and its people, not random children in non-Dornish territories. That is why he wants to minimize the risk of an invasion of Dorne which could come in the wake of Dorne making an unsuccessful bid for the throne. Or the silly and suicidal scenario of provoking the Lannisters or whoever into invading Dorne for their own reasons. Obviously in such a scenario the only civilians that would suffer are Dornish (children).

But Doran actually does have empathy even to the children of his enemies as he has no plan to specifically kill Jaime and Cersei nor hurt Cersei's children (especially not Myrcella).

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The comments about failing to seek alliances is strategically sound. But I think there is a cultural and historical aspect to this: Dorne wasn't part of the 7K until little over a century ago, and that via intermarriage to a Targ king and a Targ marrying into House Martell. The Reach and Stormlands always had hostile feelings towards Dorne. Elia and Oberyn's mother tried to form some type of alliance with the Lannisters of the Westerlands, but Tywin Lannister rebuffed that. Meanwhile, the Riverlands, Vale and North are physically remote to them. In other words, they were isolated for centuries, even after becoming part of the 7K. This imo explains why it never truly occurs to Doran to try and form an alliance with anyone else but a Targ.

Edited by sweetsunray
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Before the Conquest, Stormlands, Reach and Dorne used to kill each other, but there are some marriage arrangements among the dornish march lords and some dornish marches, Barristan desired Ashara, Beric Dondarrion was arranged to Allyria and Edric became his squire, so there is an attempt to put aside traditional hates among families 

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On 10/1/2023 at 8:42 AM, sifth said:

I mean Dany turned out to be a pretty great person and she was born in exile as well.

This doesn't really refute their point. Horrible circumstances mean it is harder to grow up and be successful...not impossible. I have a friend who grew up very poor and is now quite successful and happy. Her brother is in jail. The existence of her does not mean there are not other circumstances and situations that led to her brother being in jail. Viserys also ...as strange as it might sound, might have protected Daenerys from some of this. For certain, Viserys was the one putting food on the table and probably finding them a place to sleep from the time Daenerys was like...3, 4? up until when Illyrio took them in. How Viserys did this...we don't know, but he did do it. 

P.s. Viserys is a horribly abusive caregiver. Just to make sure no one misunderstands me. He was horrible and abusive to Daenerys. But he may have also protected her from some other things (just not from himself). 

Edited by Lord of Raventree Hall
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23 minutes ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

This doesn't really refute their point. Horrible circumstances mean it is harder to grow up and be successful...not impossible. I have a friend who grew up very poor and is now quite successful and happy. Her brother is in jail. The existence of her does not mean there are not other circumstances and situations that led to her brother being in jail. Viserys also ...as strange as it might sound, might have protected Daenerys from some of this. For certain, Viserys was the one putting food on the table and probably finding them a place to sleep from the time Daenerys was like...3, 4? up until when Illyrio took them in. How Viserys did this...we don't know, but he did do it. 

P.s. Viserys is a horribly abusive caregiver. Just to make sure no one misunderstands me. He was horrible and abusive to Daenerys. But he may have also protected her from some other things (just not from himself). 

The same logic can be used in reverse though. I have a relative who ended up in jail, despite growing up rather wealthy and with loving parents and siblings who cared for him. I also work with a lot of homeless people when I do charity work and many of them are some of the kindest people I’ve ever met. 
 

Plus Ser. Barry told us Viserys was showing signs of becoming the mad king 2.0 even at an early age, when his family was in power and he had all the wrath in the world.

Edited by sifth
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1 hour ago, sifth said:

The same logic can be used in reverse though. I have a relative who ended up in jail, despite growing up rather wealthy and with loving parents and siblings who cared for him. I also work with a lot of homeless people when I do charity work and many of them are some of the kindest people I’ve ever met. 
 

Plus Ser. Barry told us Viserys was showing signs of becoming the mad king 2.0 even at an early age, when his family was in power and he had all the wrath in the world.

Yes, well that is on me I guess for using an individual example. Statistically, the data backs my point up. Poverty and circumstance are not just a factor, but the main factor for how much success one has in life. Because one person had success or ended up okay in those situations doesn't cease to make poverty a problem. In the case of Viserys, he was given very little opportunity, his main role model as a child was....someone everyone calls the "Mad KIng" who abused Viserys's mother..and it is very possible Viserys knew about that (and it effected how he treated Daenerys). At like the age of 7, everything he knew was taken from him, and he no longer had...any adult role models. Honestly, just to compare to other characters we know : Jon Snow is given more opportunity in the books then Viserys Targaryen. Jon Snow is honestly more privileged than Viserys Targaryen in our books. But because of his name and his parentage, people kind of ignore Viserys's circumstances, and they shouldn't. 

As to Barristan's comments by the way, I already said it...but Viserys...also had bad circumstances even when he was rich. His father was a crazed dictator who burned people alive and tortured his mother. That isn't going to = great childhood. Since most adult abusers (which Viserys is) experience abuse in childhood, it is also quite possible that Aerys either directly or indirectly was abusive to Viserys (considering his personality, this wouldn't be shocking at all). 

Also, I know I kind of broke this up in strange paragraphs - But I want to make this clear, poverty makes a huge difference in people's circumstances. Parenting also makes a huge difference in people's circumstances. Examples of people who overcome the hardships of poverty or bad parenting does not negate that...they had to overcome those things. It was hard. Good parenting is going to end up with a much higher percentage of well adjusted adults. Having access to resources/wealth is going to give advantages to youth. Jon Snow's storyline even directly confronts this issue. While Jon was born a bastard, his privilege is thrown in his face. Privilege that actually most of our main POV characters grew up with (the noticeable exceptions being Daenerys and Davos). I don't think we directly encounter the bad vs. good parenting being directly called to our attention, however, it is quite obvious when looking at Tyrion, Cersei, and Jaime...that bad parenting can f*** kids up, and that the lack of actual parental love can have other effects (in the case of Theon). 

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1 hour ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Yes, well that is on me I guess for using an individual example. Statistically, the data backs my point up. Poverty and circumstance are not just a factor, but the main factor for how much success one has in life. Because one person had success or ended up okay in those situations doesn't cease to make poverty a problem. In the case of Viserys, he was given very little opportunity, his main role model as a child was....someone everyone calls the "Mad KIng" who abused Viserys's mother..and it is very possible Viserys knew about that (and it effected how he treated Daenerys). At like the age of 7, everything he knew was taken from him, and he no longer had...any adult role models. Honestly, just to compare to other characters we know : Jon Snow is given more opportunity in the books then Viserys Targaryen. Jon Snow is honestly more privileged than Viserys Targaryen in our books. But because of his name and his parentage, people kind of ignore Viserys's circumstances, and they shouldn't. 

As to Barristan's comments by the way, I already said it...but Viserys...also had bad circumstances even when he was rich. His father was a crazed dictator who burned people alive and tortured his mother. That isn't going to = great childhood. Since most adult abusers (which Viserys is) experience abuse in childhood, it is also quite possible that Aerys either directly or indirectly was abusive to Viserys (considering his personality, this wouldn't be shocking at all). 

Also, I know I kind of broke this up in strange paragraphs - But I want to make this clear, poverty makes a huge difference in people's circumstances. Parenting also makes a huge difference in people's circumstances. Examples of people who overcome the hardships of poverty or bad parenting does not negate that...they had to overcome those things. It was hard. Good parenting is going to end up with a much higher percentage of well adjusted adults. Having access to resources/wealth is going to give advantages to youth. Jon Snow's storyline even directly confronts this issue. While Jon was born a bastard, his privilege is thrown in his face. Privilege that actually most of our main POV characters grew up with (the noticeable exceptions being Daenerys and Davos). I don't think we directly encounter the bad vs. good parenting being directly called to our attention, however, it is quite obvious when looking at Tyrion, Cersei, and Jaime...that bad parenting can f*** kids up, and that the lack of actual parental love can have other effects (in the case of Theon). 

I mean Rhaegar was a kind and honorable adult, by all accounts by everyone who knew him, expect for Robert; who only hates him because he ended up with the woman he loved. Rhaegar also was raised by Aerys and knew his insane father a lot longer. Listen, I know what you're trying to get at, but sometimes a bad egg is just a bad egg.

This might be my own personal biased, but I have a zero tolerance policy, when it comes to bullies. Growing up, me and my friends joined the karate club and became black belts at and early age and would always stand up for people, when we saw them being mistreated by others. Everyone in this world or any world has baggage of some sort or another, it doesn't give us any right or excuse to hurt others for our own personal happiness. I'm a teacher and I've worked with kids with horrible parents, who are great kids and kids with great parents, but act horribly. We humans are a lot more complex than many of us think we are.

So it's basically impossible for me to feel bad for someone like Viserys, who treats his younger sister like crap. Telling her he'd let over a hundred people rape her, for his own personal gain. The guy just disgusts me all around. He's basically Joffrey, just without any real power.

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6 hours ago, sifth said:

I mean Rhaegar was a kind and honorable adult, by all accounts by everyone who knew him, expect for Robert; who only hates him because he ended up with the woman he loved. Rhaegar also was raised by Aerys and knew his insane father a lot longer. Listen, I know what you're trying to get at, but sometimes a bad egg is just a bad egg.

This might be my own personal biased, but I have a zero tolerance policy, when it comes to bullies. Growing up, me and my friends joined the karate club and became black belts at and early age and would always stand up for people, when we saw them being mistreated by others. Everyone in this world or any world has baggage of some sort or another, it doesn't give us any right or excuse to hurt others for our own personal happiness. I'm a teacher and I've worked with kids with horrible parents, who are great kids and kids with great parents, but act horribly. We humans are a lot more complex than many of us think we are.

So it's basically impossible for me to feel bad for someone like Viserys, who treats his younger sister like crap. Telling her he'd let over a hundred people rape her, for his own personal gain. The guy just disgusts me all around. He's basically Joffrey, just without any real power.

I don't think Rhaegar was honourable really. Ned describes his actions as "poison in the dark".

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5 minutes ago, Lee-Sensei said:

I don't think Rhaegar was honourable really. Ned describes his actions as "poison in the dark".

I don’t recall Ned ever hating Rhaegar……..the guy who raped and murdered his sister………wink wink. 

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2 minutes ago, sifth said:

I don’t recall Ned ever hating Rhaegar……..the guy who raped and murdered his sister………wink wink. 

Ned almost never thinks about Aerys either. In the moment before the Tourney of the Hand when they're talking, Ned thinks about Robert bringing people to justice.

Quote

"This was the boy he had grown up with, he thought; this was the Robert Baratheon he'd known and loved. If he could prove that the Lannisters were behind the attack on Bran, prove that they had murdered Jon Arryn, this man would listen. Then Cersei would fall, and the kingslayer with her, and if Lord Tywin dared to rouse the west, Robert would smash him as he had smashed Rhaegar Targaryen on the Trident. He could see it all so clearly."

Ned hates the Lannisters, so grouping Rhaegar in with them isn't a good sign (I'm not saying that he's as bad as them, but it's not a good sign).

Quote

 

Robert could be merciful. Ser Barristan was scarcely the only man he had pardoned. Grand Maester Pycelle, Varys the Spider, Lord Balon Greyjoy; each had been counted an enemy to Robert once, and each had been welcomed into friendship and allowed to retain honors and office for a pledge of fealty. So long as a man was brave and honest, Robert would treat him with all the honor and respect due a valiant enemy.

This was something else: poison in the dark, a knife thrust to the soul. This he could never forgive, no more than he had forgiven Rhaegar.

 

Robert could be merciful. He would forgive people that were brave and honest, but he could never forgive Rhaegar. The meaning is pretty clear. Rhaegar hadn't acted bravely or honestly in what he did. Littlefinger of all poeple did, when he challenged Brandon to a fight for Catelyn's hand, but Ned seems to really dislike him for it from their first meeting in AGOT. He later says that Brandon was too kind to him (Littlefinger was thought to have died of blood loss, so that means that he should have been killed).

I don't think Rhaegar was the worst person in the world, but I definitely wouldn't call him honourable. And Ned never really thinks highly of him. The closest that we get to that is him thinking that Rhaegar probably didn't go to brothels. But neither does Roose Bolton (again... I'm not saying that he's anywhere close to Roose morally). Rhaegar met justice. Aerys met justice. Ned's mature enough to have basically moved on. He's more concerned with the criminals that got away as he sees it. Tywin, Jaime, Gregor Clegane, Jorah Mormont etc.

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14 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

Since most adult abusers (which Viserys is) experience abuse in childhood, it is also quite possible that Aerys either directly or indirectly was abusive to Viserys (considering his personality, this wouldn't be shocking at all). 

I don't believe for a second that he was abused by his father, otherwise Barristan would have told us, one way or another.

On the contrary, Aerys was overprotective towards Viserys and even forbade Rhaella, his own mother, to be alone with him.

Viserys fell on the wrong side of the coin, madness was his destiny.

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13 hours ago, sifth said:

I mean Rhaegar was a kind and honorable adult, by all accounts by everyone who knew him, expect for Robert; who only hates him because he ended up with the woman he loved. Rhaegar also was raised by Aerys and knew his insane father a lot longer. Listen, I know what you're trying to get at, but sometimes a bad egg is just a bad egg.

This might be my own personal biased, but I have a zero tolerance policy, when it comes to bullies. Growing up, me and my friends joined the karate club and became black belts at and early age and would always stand up for people, when we saw them being mistreated by others. Everyone in this world or any world has baggage of some sort or another, it doesn't give us any right or excuse to hurt others for our own personal happiness. I'm a teacher and I've worked with kids with horrible parents, who are great kids and kids with great parents, but act horribly. We humans are a lot more complex than many of us think we are.

So it's basically impossible for me to feel bad for someone like Viserys, who treats his younger sister like crap. Telling her he'd let over a hundred people rape her, for his own personal gain. The guy just disgusts me all around. He's basically Joffrey, just without any real power.

I was bullied intensely from 1st grade through 8th grade. My father was abusive as well, although mostly verbally, not physically (but there was occasional physical abuse as well). You say you have a no tolerance policy for abuse, me too. I have been in therapy at multiple times due to the scars left on me by both bullying and my father. 

I would have loved to have you and your karate friends looking out for me, but for the most part I had no one looking out for me. I myself stood up to my bullies and later I protected/defended others from bullying. 

I am also a teacher, and I have 0 tolerance for bullying in my classroom. I have butted heads with many parents (those whose children are bullies) over issues my bosses told me to let go, but I refused. 

But again, to be clear, most bullies are former victims of abuse. Not all, but most. When I was a child, my primary bully was named Kevin. For years he made my life hell. But even as a child, do you know what I noticed? The burn scars on Kevin’s arms and hands. The fact he showed up to school with bruises often. Kevin’s dad almost certainly beat him. See Kevin tormented me, but…he also shared a lot with me. Kevin did not beat me for his personal happiness. He brain was fucked. He was miserable and unhappy. He sought some sort of control through bullying. That does not mean I forgive him, in fact, let me quote George RR Martin with a related idea

“More less than more. There are many sorts of outlaws, just as there are many sorts of birds. A sandpiper and a sea eagle both have wings, but they are not the same. The singers love to sing of good men forced to go outside the law to fight some wicked lord, but most outlaws are more like this ravening Hound than they are the lightning lord. They are evil men, driven by greed, soured by malice, despising the gods and caring only for themselves. Broken men are more deserving of our pity, though they may be just as dangerous. Almost all are common-born, simple folk who had never been more than a mile from the house where they were born until the day some lord came round to take them off to war. Poorly shod and poorly clad, they march away beneath his banners, ofttimes with no better arms than a sickle or a sharpened hoe, or a maul they made themselves by lashing a stone to a stick with strips of hide. Brothers march with brothers, sons with fathers, friends with friends. They’ve heard the songs and stories, so they go off with eager hearts, dreaming of the wonders they will see, of the wealth and glory they will win. War seems a fine adventure, the greatest most of them will ever know.

“Then they get a taste of battle.

“For some, that one taste is enough to break them. Others go on for years, until they lose count of all the battles they have fought in, but even a man who has survived a hundred fights can break in his hundred-and-first. Brothers watch their brothers die, fathers lose their sons, friends see their friends trying to hold their entrails in after they’ve been gutted by an axe.

“They see the lord who led them there cut down, and some other lord shouts that they are his now. They take a wound, and when that’s still half-healed they take another. There is never enough to eat, their shoes fall to pieces from the marching, their clothes are torn and rotting, and half of them are shitting in their breeches from drinking bad water.

“If they want new boots or a warmer cloak or maybe a rusted iron halfhelm, they need to take them from a corpse, and before long they are stealing from the living too, from the smallfolk whose lands they’re fighting in, men very like the men they used to be. They slaughter their sheep and steal their chickens, and from there it’s just a short step to carrying off their daughters too. And one day they look around and realize all their friends and kin are gone, that they are fighting beside strangers beneath a banner that they hardly recognize. They don’t know where they are or how to get back home and the lord they’re fighting for does not know their names, yet here he comes, shouting for them to form up, to make a line with their spears and scythes and sharpened hoes, to stand their ground. And the knights come down on them, faceless men clad all in steel, and the iron thunder of their charge seems to fill the world…

“And the man breaks.

“He turns and runs, or crawls off afterward over the corpses of the slain, or steals away in the black of night, and he finds someplace to hide. All thought of home is gone by then, and kings and lords and gods mean less to him than a haunch of spoiled meat that will let him live another day, or a skin of bad wine that might drown his fear for a few hours. The broken man lives from day to day, from meal to meal, more beast than man. Lady Brienne is not wrong. In times like these, the traveler must beware of broken men, and fear them…but he should pity them as well.”

You see, I hated Kevin, an I don’t forgive him for what he did, but I do pity him as well. I can even understand him. I was so angry for so many years. I still struggle with anger and defensiveness because of my experiences. It’s not just as simple as saying “they ate choosing to be mean”…I don’t want to be angry or defensive. I go to therapy and try to deal with those issues. But they still persist. That is what trauma does to people. It fucks them up. You mentioned Rhaegar. Rhaegar ALSO does not seem mentally healthy. He may not be an abuser, but that does not mean his experiences did not cause trauma. Everyone reacts to trauma differently. There is no such thing though as a bad seed. That is my STRONGEST belief as an educator and a father. Everyone can be good. 

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42 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

I don't believe for a second that he was abused by his father, otherwise Barristan would have told us, one way or another.

On the contrary, Aerys was overprotective towards Viserys and even forbade Rhaella, his own mother, to be alone with him.

Viserys fell on the wrong side of the coin, madness was his destiny.

That is just something that our characters, who are uneducated and don't understand modern psychology or sociology, say. Madness was not his destiny, and with proper help, he could have grown up to be a very different adult. There is no such thing as destined madness. At best Viserys's childhood probably looked something like Arya's..and we can see how it is effecting Arya directly on the pages in front of us. Bran as well is experiencing repeated trauma and it is causing him to make worse and worse decisions. Arya is killing people for money. Bran has gone into another's body and controlled him without his consent. Trauma effects everyone, and we often need significant help to get over it (help not available in Westeros or Essos). 

I believe Daenerys even says something along the lines of, "She missed Viserys. Not what he had become at the end, but the brother who let her crawl in bed with her when she was a child." I'm sorry this isn't the real quote, I looked on google, but couldn't find it. Anyways, she said something like this. It suggests that Viserys was deteriorating, becoming less and less stable the more he experienced of life. That at a time when they were younger, Viserys was less abusive and had other emotions besides...disgust and anger (those are basically his only two emotions in our book). Again, I think Viserys is a horrible abuser...but he was not born bad, or born crazy. He might have a disorder (I don't know enough....I've had friends with bipolar disease..and people call them crazy, but with proper maintenance, no one even knows they have it), but simply having a disorder is not some pre-destined personality.

My guess is whatever disorder he has or doesn't have, trauma is the main cause. Also...a father being overprotective who teaches their child horrible lessons about how they should treat others...is still not something inborn. Parents often teach their children to be racist, sexist, homophobic, bullies, or classist. It happens all the time. And being overprotective does not mean not abusive...my dad was super overprotective. He also abused me. 

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