Your Winds Outline

[Hippocras]

I am curious how GRRM will manage the progression of the story early in Winds. For example, we know that the battle in the North and the one in Meereen were originally intended for the last book, so must happen early in Winds of Winter. But on the other hand, several other developments may need some introduction/further development first. This is my stab at a chapter outline trying to take into account what we know. I welcome your corrections of any oversights, things I might have missed or not considered:

 

Prologue:
GRRM seems to have established an alternating pattern in the prologues, so I would be surprised if this one had anything to do with the far North. Instead it will follow the sequence established by the Cressen and Pate prologues, and will be related to Essosi insidious penetration of Westerosi locations/institutions along with elements of imported beliefs and magic. My guess is this prologue may visit an Essosi location we will otherwise not see much of, and will deepen the web of intrigue connecting various places such as Dorne and Tyrosh (Archon's daughter at the Water Gardens) Myr and the Reach (Taena Merryweather) Oldtown, Lys and Volantis (oily black stone, shipping routes, Lynesse).  We may learn about who is using glass candles.

Chapter 1 - Daenerys imprisonment.
Chapter 2 - Damphair failed rebellion on Iron Islands.
Chapter 3 - Theon 1 (sample)
Chapter 4 - Ghost, wall aftermath
Chapter 5 - Davos 1
Chapter 6 - Bran 1
Chapter 7 - Arya 1 (Mercy sample. Wolf dream links to Bran)
Chapter 8 - Jamie and/or Brienne with the BwB
Chapter 9 - Cersei 1
Chapter 10 - Arianne 1

Chapters 11-13 (or more) - Meereen with Tyrion, Barristan and Victarion.

Chapters 14-17 (or more) - Winterfell and the Wall with Asha, Theon, Melisandre, Davos and Ghost
Chapter 18 - Alayne 1 sample
Chapter 19 - Brienne 2
Chapter 20 - Arya 2 encounter with Jeyne

Chapter 21 - Arianne 2 sample
Chapter 22 - Hotah and Obara at Starfall/High Hermitage
Chapter 23 - Damphair 2 sample 
Chapter 24 - Sam at Oldtown, Ironborn assault
 

 

[Nevets]

4 hours ago, Hippocras said:

I am curious how GRRM will manage the progression of the story early in Winds. For example, we know that the battle in the North and the one in Meereen were originally intended for the last book, so must happen early in Winds of Winter. But on the other hand, several other developments may need some introduction/further development first. This is my stab at a chapter outline trying to take into account what we know. I welcome your corrections of any oversights, things I might have missed or not considered:

 

Prologue:
GRRM seems to have established an alternating pattern in the prologues, so I would be surprised if this one had anything to do with the far North. Instead it will follow the sequence established by the Cressen and Pate prologues, and will be related to Essosi insidious penetration of Westerosi locations/institutions along with elements of imported beliefs and magic. My guess is this prologue may visit an Essosi location we will otherwise not see much of, and will deepen the web of intrigue connecting various places such as Dorne and Tyrosh (Archon's daughter at the Water Gardens) Myr and the Reach (Taena Merryweather) Oldtown, Lys and Volantis (oily black stone, shipping routes, Lynesse).  We may learn about who is using glass candles.

Chapter 1 - Daenerys imprisonment.
Chapter 2 - Damphair failed rebellion on Iron Islands.
Chapter 3 - Theon 1 (sample)
Chapter 4 - Ghost, wall aftermath
Chapter 5 - Davos 1
Chapter 6 - Bran 1
Chapter 7 - Arya 1 (Mercy sample. Wolf dream links to Bran)
Chapter 8 - Jamie and/or Brienne with the BwB
Chapter 9 - Cersei 1
Chapter 10 - Arianne 1

Chapters 11-13 (or more) - Meereen with Tyrion, Barristan and Victarion.

Chapters 14-17 (or more) - Winterfell and the Wall with Asha, Theon, Melisandre, Davos and Ghost
Chapter 18 - Alayne 1 sample
Chapter 19 - Brienne 2
Chapter 20 - Arya 2 encounter with Jeyne

Chapter 21 - Arianne 2 sample
Chapter 22 - Hotah and Obara at Starfall/High Hermitage
Chapter 23 - Damphair 2 sample 
Chapter 24 - Sam at Oldtown, Ironborn assault
 

 

Prologue: Martin has stated that Jeyne Westerling is in the prologue.  This suggests something in the Westlands.  Most speculation has centered on a rescue attempt for Edmure, either by the BwB or the Blackfish, or both.  I have my doubts; I think the timing is too tight and the escort too large.  My guess is it will be their arrival in Casterly Rock.  We will see the Rock and get an update on events in the West.

Arya 2: I expect a meeting with Jeyne Poole, but I think it comes a bit later.  Her meeting with Jeyne will almost certainly lead to leaving Braavos, and I think she still has a couple of chapters left there.  So I'm guessing around Arya 4.  That also gives Jeyne time to travel there.

[SeanF]

Dany will go to Vaes Dothrak, but not as a prisoner, I think.  I expect Drogon to roast Jhaqo and his followers at the start of Winds.

[LongRider]

Ghost won't be the POV at the Wall, Mellisandre will. 

[Hippocras]

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

Prologue: Martin has stated that Jeyne Westerling is in the prologue.  This suggests something in the Westlands. 

Good point. I had forgottent about that. So the prologue is in the River/Wester lands probably. I still think there is a bit of a pattern to the prologues though that needs consideration. Even if it includes Jeyne, the element of dark magic of Essosi variety could still be present. This might come by way of Sybil Spicer who seems to have meddled with love potions and pregnancy prevention at the very least, but also possibly poisons. Maybe she has Essosi links still that will prove relevant.

As for Arya, I don't see her encounter with jeyne as an immediate catalyst for departure. I think it will be a slower process. Jeyne needs some time to arrive, I agree, but my outline doesn't have the Arya 2 chapter all that early. It is after the big battles and after the Vale tourney as well. Maybe even after Cersei's trial. So the only major event that we know is coming that I predicted might happen after Arya 2 is Euron's invasion of Oldtown.

 

Edited October 23, 2023 by Hippocras

[Mithras]

 

[Hippocras]

4 minutes ago, Mithras said:

 

Tnx. I searched but did not come up with any results for some reason

[SaffronLady]

8 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Chapter 2 - Damphair failed rebellion on Iron Islands.

Isn't he strapped to the prow of a boat last time we see him? He manages to escape or something?

[Hippocras]

14 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

Isn't he strapped to the prow of a boat last time we see him? He manages to escape or something?

No I put thatcsample chapter later as Damphair 2. It just seemed in the sample like another chapter might have come before leading to his predicament, but not offered as a sample because too spoilery about Asha or Euron or some other events.

[sweetsunray]

2 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

No I put thatcsample chapter later as Damphair 2. It just seemed in the sample like another chapter might have come before leading to his predicament, but not offered as a sample because too spoilery about Asha or Euron or some other events.

The sample chapter includes information on how he got captured on the Iron Islands.

Spoiler

It's what he wants to do, leading a rebellion, but he's taken by Euron's mutes before he can

 

[Hippocras]

Just now, sweetsunray said:

The sample chapter includes information on how he got captured on the Iron Islands.

  Reveal hidden contents

It's what he wants to do, leading a rebellion, but he's taken by Euron's mutes before he can

 

Well it seemed incomplete to me. Could be I am the only one who feels like it is too expositiony if described only in that way, there but that is how I felt reading the sample. Like somethong clearly came before.

[sweetsunray]

9 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Well it seemed incomplete to me. Could be I am the only one who feels like it is too expositiony if described only in that way, there but that is how I felt reading the sample. Like somethong clearly came before.

The sample chapter explains quickly his timeline right after the kingsmoot

Spoiler

Right after Euron's election, he talks to Vic who dismisses Damphair

He then seeks solace near the sea. His drowned men make to follow, but he sends them off with harsh words, because he wants to be alone.

He goes into the sea water, praying to the Drowned God for wisdom. Comes back ashore, pushes his wet hair out of his eyes, and is taken.

During this memory, he hears celebratory noises. He was taken the same night after the Kingsmoot election.

https://thehawke.github.io/twow-excerpts/chapters/forsaken.html

Sorry. I do get your sensation that the sample is rough. It still needs some polishing in certain ways. But it's surprisingly complete, every time I pour across it again.

Edited October 23, 2023 by sweetsunray

[Gilbert Green]

@Hippocras

- The Prologue will have something to do with the taking of Storms End, and my guess is that it will involve blood sorcery.  Which bodes ill for Jeyne Westerling and her theoretical kingsblood baby.   It won't necessary take place at Storms End, but neither will it necessarily take place in the Westerlands.  People move around, and Sybell no doubt sees herself as ill treated by the Lannisters.  JonCon hints at "friends in the Reach" and I think we will find out that some of them are blood sorcerers.

- Why would Dany be imprisoned? 

- Damphair's rebellion on the Iron Islands was already dealt with, in flashback, in THE FORSAKEN sample chapter.  It does not need to be dealt with again.  Look forward, not backward.  I would never call GRRM an efficient writer.  But he is not THAT inefficient.  He will not, god willing, waste an entire chapter telling us something we already know, and not advancing the story an inch.

- There will be no Brienne and Jaime at the BWB chapter.  GRRM separated us from the Brienne & Jaime povs for a reason.  He is planning to surprise us, and therefore means to deprive us of access to their thoughts and plans.  We will next see them (not necessarily together) at Kings Landing, and/or at Winterfell and/or at the Vale Tourney.  And we won't know what they are up to because we will see them through the eyes of Sansa and/or Cersei and/or Asha/Theon.

There will be no ironborn assault at Oldtown, and if there is, Euron certainly won't be with them.

 

 

 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Hippocras]

6 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

@Hippocras

- The Prologue will have something to do with the taking of Storms End, and my guess is that it will involve blood sorcery.  Which bodes ill for Jeyne Westerling and her theoretical kingsblood baby.   It won't necessary take place at Storms End, but neither will it necessarily take place in the Westerlands.  People move around, and Sybell no doubt sees herself as ill treated by the Lannisters.  JonCon hints at "friends in the Reach" and I think we will find out that some of them are blood sorcerers.

- Why would Dany be imprisoned? 

- Damphair's rebellion on the Iron Islands was already dealt with, in flashback, in THE FORSAKEN sample chapter.  It does not need to be dealt with again.  Look forward, not backward.  I would never call GRRM an efficient writer.  But he is not THAT inefficient.  He will not, god willing, waste an entire chapter telling us something we already know, and not advancing the story an inch.

- There will be no Brienne and Jaime at the BWB chapter.  GRRM separated us from the Brienne & Jaime povs for a reason.  He is planning to surprise us, and therefore means to deprive us of access to their thoughts and plans.  We will next see them (not necessarily together) at Kings Landing, and/or at Winterfell and/or at the Vale Tourney.  And we won't know what they are up to because we will see them through the eyes of Sansa and/or Cersei and/or Asha/Theon.

There will be no ironborn assault at Oldtown, and if there is, Euron certainly won't be with them.

Interesting. I am not sure how much freedom Jeyne will have to move around though, which is why I am not so convinced I guess. If the Spicer family has interesting connections, which they probably do, those connections are in Essos back where they came from and not so much the Reach.

I do agree that developments at Storm's End will be interesting, it is just that I think the GC found Edric Storm in Lys. They do not need sorcery to take Storm's End if they have him. And if for some reason they do need King's blood sorcery then...well again, they have King Robert's bastard. Events at Storm's End will mainly be covered by Arianne's POV so I don't think the timing makes sense in the prologue either.

As I have been trying to explain about Damphair, just because we have a sample chapter does not mean that it is the FIRST chapter in the book from a certain POV. People are welcome to disagree with me that an earlier chapter is necessary, certainly. But I AM entirely aware of the sample chapter and its contents. If you don't like my proposal that the sample is Damphair2 and not Damphair1, and that Damphair1 gives a more complete picture of the state of things on the Iron Islands just before his capture, in a way that will tie into Asha and Theon's story later, then that is perfectly fine. It is not as if my whole outline falls apart if there is no earlier Damphair chapter.

As for Dany I don't get your question. Last we saw her, she was surrounded by her enemy's Khalasar, so a prisoner. Their firm belief, well established in the books, is that she belongs in the Dosh Khaleen. Drogon may be with Dany, but he has his own moods and his own mind. Part of him IS Drogo, whose sacrifice was essential for the hatching of the dragons. Drogo too would believe that his widow belongs with the Dosh Khaleen. And furthermore Drogon is injured. So Drogon is unlikely to be much help in this particular moment. I am not saying things will go down the same way as in the show, but Dany will have to use her own means to get out of her situation and that will take a bit of time. She is not simply going to be rescued this time by the injured Drogon.

Edited October 24, 2023 by Hippocras

[Hippocras]

16 hours ago, LongRider said:

Ghost won't be the POV at the Wall, Mellisandre will. 

Mel will be the main POV anyway. I just thought that a Ghost POV would be interesting at that precise moment, because it would be a window on Melisandre without giving her thoughts (as she frees Ghost North of the wall?), and because a wolf has a very different way of seeing the world than a sorceress. A Ghost POV would make the violence more raw, the stimmuli of the senses more present, and any schemes or magical event more confusing and ambiguous.

[SeanF]

6 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Interesting. I am not sure how much freedom Jeyne will have to move around though, which is why I am not so convinced I guess. If the Spicer family has interesting connections, which they probably do, those connections are in Essos back where they came from and not so much the Reach.

I do agree that developments at Storm's End will be interesting, it is just that I think the GC found Edric Storm in Lys. They do not need sorcery to take Storm's End if they have him. And if for some reason they do need King's blood sorcery then...well again, they have King Robert's bastard. Events at Storm's End will mainly be covered by Arianne's POV so I don't think the timing makes sense in the prologue either.

As I have been trying to explain about Damphair, just because we have a sample chapter does not mean that it is the FIRST chapter in the book from a certain POV. People are welcome to disagree with me that an earlier chapter is necessary, certainly. But I AM entirely aware of the sample chapter and its contents. If you don't like my proposal that the sample is Damphair2 and not Damphair1, and that Damphair1 gives a more complete picture of the state of things on the Iron Islands just before his capture, in a way that will tie into Asha and Theon's story later, then that is perfectly fine. It is not as if my whole outline falls apart if there is no earlier Damphair chapter.

As for Dany I don't get your question. Last we saw her, she was surrounded by her enemy's Khalasar, so a prisoner. Their firm belief, well established in the books, is that she belongs in the Dosh Khaleen. Drogon may be with Dany, but he has his own moods and his own mind. Part of him IS Drogo, whose sacrifice was essential for the hatching of the dragons. Drogo too would believe that his widow belongs with the Dosh Khaleen. And furthermore Drogon is injured. So Drogon is unlikely to be much help in this particular moment. I am not saying things will go down the same way as in the show, but Dany will have to use her own means to get out of her situation and that will take a bit of time. She is not simply going to be rescued this time by the injured Drogon.

Jhaqo would likely rape and kill her, if he could.

So, I expect Drogon to incinerate him.

[Hippocras]

6 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Jhaqo would likely rape and kill her, if he could.

So, I expect Drogon to incinerate him.

Disagree. The Dothraki do actually have their own kind of moral boundaries. The widows of Khals have special status.

[CassDarry]

On 10/23/2023 at 10:57 AM, Hippocras said:

I am curious how GRRM will manage the progression of the story early in Winds. For example, we know that the battle in the North and the one in Meereen were originally intended for the last book, so must happen early in Winds of Winter. But on the other hand, several other developments may need some introduction/further development first. This is my stab at a chapter outline trying to take into account what we know. I welcome your corrections of any oversights, things I might have missed or not considered:

 

Prologue:
GRRM seems to have established an alternating pattern in the prologues, so I would be surprised if this one had anything to do with the far North. Instead it will follow the sequence established by the Cressen and Pate prologues, and will be related to Essosi insidious penetration of Westerosi locations/institutions along with elements of imported beliefs and magic. My guess is this prologue may visit an Essosi location we will otherwise not see much of, and will deepen the web of intrigue connecting various places such as Dorne and Tyrosh (Archon's daughter at the Water Gardens) Myr and the Reach (Taena Merryweather) Oldtown, Lys and Volantis (oily black stone, shipping routes, Lynesse).  We may learn about who is using glass candles.

Chapter 1 - Daenerys imprisonment.
Chapter 2 - Damphair failed rebellion on Iron Islands.
Chapter 3 - Theon 1 (sample)
Chapter 4 - Ghost, wall aftermath
Chapter 5 - Davos 1
Chapter 6 - Bran 1
Chapter 7 - Arya 1 (Mercy sample. Wolf dream links to Bran)
Chapter 8 - Jamie and/or Brienne with the BwB
Chapter 9 - Cersei 1
Chapter 10 - Arianne 1

Chapters 11-13 (or more) - Meereen with Tyrion, Barristan and Victarion.

Chapters 14-17 (or more) - Winterfell and the Wall with Asha, Theon, Melisandre, Davos and Ghost
Chapter 18 - Alayne 1 sample
Chapter 19 - Brienne 2
Chapter 20 - Arya 2 encounter with Jeyne

Chapter 21 - Arianne 2 sample
Chapter 22 - Hotah and Obara at Starfall/High Hermitage
Chapter 23 - Damphair 2 sample 
Chapter 24 - Sam at Oldtown, Ironborn assault
 

 

No Jon con chapters? Just Arianne pov?

[Hippocras]

5 hours ago, CassDarry said:

No Jon con chapters? Just Arianne pov?

Good point. Forgot he waa a POV

[Nevets]

5 hours ago, CassDarry said:

No Jon con chapters? Just Arianne pov?

 

35 minutes ago, Hippocras said:

Good point. Forgot he waa a POV

Well you do have 24 chapters listed and there are 20 POVs still alive, so I'm guessing you can't list everyone.  And some of the more minor ones won't get much in any event.

I know that when I try to figure out how many chapters each POV gets, I end up with a total that is more than will fit into one volume (85 or so).  I'm thinking he is going to have to consolidate stories pretty extensively, so POVs are in proximity and can tell each other's stories.  He can kill some off, but the ones that need the most chapters are the main characters (the big 6), and they're not going anywhere.

By the way, how many chapters total are you predicting?  Just curious.  Right now, I can't get below 92 or so.