What is the greatest butterfly affect in ASOIAF that would change the world of thw Winds of Winter?

[Marrion Karstark]

What is the greatest butterfly affect in ASOIAF that would change the world For the Winds of Winter?

 

My Example: Theon gets closer to Jaime Lannister and dies in the Whispering Wood. 

As discussed by both Theon (Theon II, ACOK) and Catelyn Stark, Theon comes very close to fighting Jamie in the Whispering Wood only to have Daryn Hornwood fight the Kingslayer instead and die in the fighting.

If instead Theon had crossed swords with Jamie Lannister, and then inevitably died, the following situations would/wouldn't have happened: 

Theon would not have been with the Ironborn when they attacked the North. This causes several strategic differences including that Theon is not there to either ask Dagmer Cleftjaw to attack Tohrren's Square and Theon would not have been there to come up with the scheme to succesfully capture Winterfell. Instead of Ser Rodrick hearing of an attack on Thorren's Square and riding off with 900 men (600 Starks and 300 Cerwyns) he would have recieved the same message to help Deepwood Motte where Asha was attacking. As revealed in Theon's discussion with Dagmer it takes Asha "one thousand men and a moon's turn" to take Deepwoode Motte from the Glovers. So depending on the timing, Ser Rodrick may have even helped to relieve the seige of Deepwood Motte, meaning the Ironborn only would have captured Moat Cailin. Also, a major difference in the North would have been Theon is never in Winterfell to let Ramsay loose, meaning that Ramsay stays a sad prisoner in Winterfell's dungeons posing as Reek with no hope for release. 

 

Snowballing down from all that is that Robb never has to grieve for his "dead" younger brothers Bran and Rickon, who are still safely in Winterfell, meaning that he likely never falls into the arms of Jeyne Westerling. As a result he never offends the Freys and gives Walder Frey the motive and oppurtunity for the Red Wedding. While Walder Frey is obviously a terrible person, in my view he still would have stuck with Robb so that his daughter could become a Queen so long as the "dishonor" of Robb marrying Jeyne and breaking his vows to the Freys never happens. Likewise in Roose Bolton's calculations to betray Robb -which he discusses some of in front of an unknowing Arya in her final chapter in ACOK (Arya X)- he decides to betray Robb because not only are the Lannisters strong after defeating Stannis, but Robb is weak because he has "lost the North" including his seat of Winterfell, his heirs Bran and Rickon are "dead," and he has lost the Freys. None of these occurences would have come to pass if instead Theon had heroically died fighting the Kingslayer. 

 

Bolton also wouldn't have had an heir in Ramsay operating freely in the North to clear his way to Moat Cailin if he succesfully betrayed Robb. Under these circumstances Bolton may not have chosen to act against Robb -yet- meaning that the series of military disasters that occur in ASOS including the Battle of Duskendale and the fighting at the Fords of the Trident probably would not have happened, and without the Freys, Bolton could not have orchestrated the Red Wedding. If Robb's Kingdom was still thriving Stannis may not have come to the defense of the Wall leading a whole bunch of changes to the North and the lands beyond the wall and the struggle with the others including a probable Mance Raider vitctory over the Night's Watch. Maybe Balon Greyjoy would have even attacked the Lannisters for killing his son instead of attacking the North, but let's be honest he never really cared for Theon that much so he probalby would have just attacked the North anyway. 

 

These books are not a real history but a brilliant work of fiction where everything is intertwined, meaning that if one thread is pulled on the whole narrative as we know it unravels. However, I still think it is really interesting to see which threads would have changed it the most and would love to hear everyone's thoughts. I think my thread is a pretty good one, as all it takes is Theon being a couple yards closer to Jamie Lannister for the whole history of Westeros to have gone differently. 

 

Please post any thoughts you might have! 

 

P.S. The farther back in time you go the more powerful the butterfly affect because it has longer to expand and change things. Obviously something like 'Rhaegar defeats Robert at the battle of the Trident' would have the maximum impact because the story we read couldn't have even happened. 

[Weirnet]

If Renly didn't act like an idiot and let Stannis be the one true King.

[Weirnet]

Also if Barristan didn't volunteer to save Aerys from Duskendale. 

[House Cambodia]

There are way too many, really. Technically, EVERY significant event could be 'the greatest butterfly effect'!

Off the top of my head - If Brandon Stark hadn't rushed down south to confront Aerys.

If Rhaegar had defeated Robert at the Battle of the Trident, or previously, if Jon Con had been a bit smarter (ie ruthless) or Selmy less loyal to a mad and dangerous boss at the Stoney Sept.

Or, if you want to reject background events, if Bran had died when shoved out of the tower, if Sansa had told the truth about Joffrey at the Trident etc etc.

Edited March 15 by House Cambodia

[House Cambodia]

Just now, House Cambodia said:

 

 

Edited March 15 by House Cambodia
accidental double-post

[House Cambodia]

2 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

 

 

Edited March 15 by House Cambodia
dammit

[Kyll.Ing.]

A very short but potentially very impactful one, that came very close to happening to boot.

When Eddard Stark arrives in King's Landing in A Game of Thrones, he is dead tired from weeks of travelling, but immediately summoned to an utterly tripe meeting of the Small Council anyway. After he leaves the meeting (which he ends early because he's too tired for it), Littlefinger takes him out of the castle, down a cliff into the city (without telling him where they are going), and to a brothel, which he claims Catelyn is inside. Ned, who is just about done with the world in general and Littlefinger in particular at this point, takes it for a sick joke, slams Littlefinger to a wall, and pulls a dagger on him. The slitting of Littlefinger's throat is only interrupted because Ser Rodrik Cassel happens to intervene.

If Rodrik Cassel hadn't been there, we could have lost Littlefinger as early as the first third of A Game of Thrones. That would probably have affected the story going forward.

[House Cambodia]

2 minutes ago, Kyll.Ing. said:

That would probably have affected the story going forward.

As in it would be 17 chapters rather than 1.7 million words

[Craving Peaches]

Renly not dying. Lannisters are done for at that point. Tywin couldn't handle Robb alone without Tyrell assistance. There is no way he could manage Robb and Renly with the Tyrells. Dorne probably jumps in to get revenge on Tywin.

On 3/14/2024 at 5:29 PM, Weirnet said:

If Renly didn't act like an idiot and let Stannis be the one true King.

Stannis told no one about the incest or his claim to be king for weeks/months after Robert died for some reason though. It actually makes little sense (unless you assume Stannis was waiting for Robert to die so he could become king, which seems a bit mean). Stannis knew/suspected the incest at least since Jon Arryn died, yet he tells no one. If Stannis had tried to warn Robert or at least not sat on vital info whilst expecting everyone to develop psychic powers in order to serve him (because he waits weeks/months after Robert's death before proclaiming his claim to the throne, whilst also not responding to messages, yet gets annoyed that no one showed up before that(?)) things probably would have turned out for the better... Like if Stannis had said as soon as Robert died what happened with the incest, he would probably have got Robb's support and possibly Renly's. Instead, he just sits around, meanwhile Robb and Renly go off and do their own thing because it's not really a situation where they can just sit around.

On 3/14/2024 at 5:31 PM, Weirnet said:

Also if Barristan didn't volunteer to save Aerys from Duskendale. 

Yeah, should have let Aerys die. No one would miss him. Barristan probably indirectly killed at least a few dozen people with that action, just factoring in all the people Aerys had executed.

Edited March 23 by Craving Peaches

[sifth]

4 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

Yeah, should have let Aerys die. No one would miss him. Barristan probably indirectly killed at least a few dozen people with that action, just factoring in all the people Aerys had executed.

Why was Barristan so eager to save Aerys anyway? That always bothered me. The guy was a nut job and pretty much everyone who knew Rhaegar said he would be a better king. The whole rescue bothers me, because it treats Barristan as if he's Rambo or Solid Snake. Don't get me wrong, I love Barristan, but since when is this guy some master of stealth and infiltration? Coming to Dany wearing a beard and using a different name doesn't count, lol

[House Cambodia]

5 hours ago, sifth said:

Why was Barristan so eager to save Aerys anyway?

Duty, pure and simple.

[Craving Peaches]

9 hours ago, sifth said:

Why was Barristan so eager to save Aerys anyway?

Muh honour as a Kingsguard. Like, okay, but this guy is a psycho. Could you maybe relax it this one time.

9 hours ago, sifth said:

The whole rescue bothers me, because it treats Barristan as if he's Rambo or Solid Snake.

Well the excuse given by the text is that he was younger. But he was presumably wearing plate armour the whole time so not sure how stealthy he could really be.

There is a theory that Duskendale was an inside job though, which could explain how Barristan managed to rescue Aerys.

[SeanF]

9 hours ago, sifth said:

Why was Barristan so eager to save Aerys anyway? That always bothered me. The guy was a nut job and pretty much everyone who knew Rhaegar said he would be a better king. The whole rescue bothers me, because it treats Barristan as if he's Rambo or Solid Snake. Don't get me wrong, I love Barristan, but since when is this guy some master of stealth and infiltration? Coming to Dany wearing a beard and using a different name doesn't count, lol

There were no good options here.

Tywin Lannister was preparing to storm the city.  Had he done so, yes, Aerys would likely have been killed, but hundreds of the inhabitants would have been killed or raped.

[SeanF]

Joffrey has Sansa beheaded, outside the Great Sept, instead of Ned.

Joffrey is a vicious enough idiot to do this, and it costs the Lannisters everything.

[sifth]

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

There were no good options here.

Tywin Lannister was preparing to storm the city.  Had he done so, yes, Aerys would likely have been killed, but hundreds of the inhabitants would have been killed or raped.

So he save Aerys, a known psycho by this point, just so he could kill those very same people after the fact? Using his awesome ninja infiltration skills, that would have to be on the level of Varys and the Faceless Men. Ser. Barry is one of my favorite characters, but this part of the lore, just hurts my head, lol

[SeanF]

48 minutes ago, sifth said:

So he save Aerys, a known psycho by this point, just so he could kill those very same people after the fact? Using his awesome ninja infiltration skills, that would have to be on the level of Varys and the Faceless Men. Ser. Barry is one of my favorite characters, but this part of the lore, just hurts my head, lol

Terrible vengeance was exacted on the Darklyns and Hollards, but the townsfolk lived.  Had the king been killed, probably every living creature in the city would have been killed.

[BlackLightning]

On 3/24/2024 at 8:39 AM, SeanF said:

Terrible vengeance was exacted on the Darklyns and Hollards, but the townsfolk lived.  Had the king been killed, probably every living creature in the city would have been killed.

Yeah, saving Aerys was the right decision. Not even for the sake of the townspeople. Because let's be honest: the actions of the Darklyns were wrong as wrong can be.

You can't kidnap and torture people just because you've been inconvenienced by the latest development in an ongoing trade dispute.

It's madness. 

[PrettyLittlePsycho]

https://preview.redd.it/2y6phso5mkj21.jpg?auto=webp&s=41ba0c8b177c31583a754d3d6387a6782889bbd6

[BlackLightning]

On 4/10/2024 at 9:11 AM, PrettyLittlePsycho said:

https://preview.redd.it/2y6phso5mkj21.jpg?auto=webp&s=41ba0c8b177c31583a754d3d6387a6782889bbd6

This is not that big of a butterfly effect

Because Stannis is still going to be fighting for the Throne. then you would have Tyrion angling to put Tommen on the Iron Throne. And all jockeying between Littlefinger, Varys and Tyrion become absolutely unrestrained.

Arianne likely tries to make Myrcella queen earlier on...except Quentyn and Oberyn would likely still be around to either help or hurt.

 

Honestly, the events in Feast and Dance that only could have happened in Tywin's absence just happen earlier on.

[TyrionsFlagon]

I often wonder how the story would have been different if Tyrion hadn't stumbled into the tavern that Catelyn was in. Catelyn never kidnaps him, she heads back to Winterfell to support Robb.  Jaime doesn't confront Ned in King's Landing over Tyrion's kidnapping, Tywin doesn't start plundering the Riverlands.

Littlefinger and Varys were plotting chaos, and Cersei was going to kill Robert one way or another.  So the game of thrones definitely would've happened either way, but the story would've unfolded differently I'm sure.