US Politics: Primary Schoolin'

[Phylum of Alexandria]

2 hours ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said:

This is how you make a cutting attack ad:

All I see is "431"

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

36 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

All I see is "431"

 

Clear your cookies. I've been getting the same message a lot lately here and in a number of other places.

Edited January 22 by Mr. Chatywin et al.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Auto delete cache and cookie in your browser.

[Phylum of Alexandria]

11 minutes ago, Mr. Chatywin et al. said:

Clear your cookies. I've been getting the same message a lot lately here and in a number of other places.

Ah thanks!

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 minutes ago, Phylum of Alexandria said:

Ah thanks!

The shitty part is it wrecks your Wordle streak. I'd be at over a year and a half if that wasn't the case. Fucking helix breaking my 100% beforehand. 

Edited January 22 by Mr. Chatywin et al.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

wordle?

 

Real man play quordle.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Trump does have a wide lead over Haley in NH, and indeed nationally. However, if you squint closely its about 50% in NH and 62%-ish nationally so it looks like his support is a bit more squishy in the former. Dont have enough data to see if this is a pattern in non-red states.

At any rate, most of those other 38% will come back to the fold eventually, but I was hoping for more reluctant Republicans than is visible.

[Zorral]

The fascist party has at least one policy they all agree to -- rid the nation of women as humans and persons with all the rights humans and persons are endowed. They went to work on that in 1972.

"As Nixon split the U.S. in two to rally voters, his supporters used abortion to stand in for women's rights in general."

January 21, 2024
HEATHER COX RICHARDSON

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/january-21-2024

Quote

 

... legal scholars Linda Greenhouse and Reva Siegel showed that opposition to the eventual Roe v. Wade decision began before the 1972 election in a deliberate attempt to polarize American politics. President Richard Nixon was up for reelection in that year, and with his popularity dropping, his advisor Pat Buchanan urged Nixon to woo Catholic Democrats over the issue of abortion. In 1970, Nixon had directed U.S. military hospitals to perform abortions regardless of state law, but in 1971, using Catholic language, he reversed course to split the Democrats, citing his personal belief "in the sanctity of human life—including the life of the yet unborn.”

As Nixon split the U.S. in two to rally voters, his supporters used abortion to stand in for women's rights in general. Railing against the Equal Rights Amendment, in her first statement on abortion in 1972, activist Phyllis Schlafly did not talk about fetuses but instead spoke about “women’s lib”—the women’s liberation movement—which she claimed was “a total assault on the role of the American woman as wife and mother, and on the family as the basic unit of society.”

A dozen years later, sociologist Kristin Luker discovered that "pro-life" activists believed that selfish “pro-choice” women were denigrating the roles of wife and mother and were demanding rights they didn’t need or deserve.

By 1988, radio provocateur Rush Limbaugh demonized women's rights advocates as “feminazis” for whom “the most important thing in life is ensuring that as many abortions as possible occur.” The issue of abortion had become a way to denigrate the political opponents of the radicalizing Republican Party.  

Such rhetoric turned out Republican voters, especially the white evangelical base, and Supreme Court justices nominated by Republicans began to chip away at Roe v. Wade. 

But support for safe and legal abortion has always been strong, and Republican leaders almost certainly did not expect the decision to fall entirely. Then, to the surprise of party leaders, the white evangelical base in 2016 elected Donald Trump to the White House. To please that base, he nominated to the Supreme Court three extremists, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, and Amy Coney Barrett. The three promised in their confirmation hearings to respect settled law, which senators chose to interpret as a promise to leave Roe v. Wade largely intact.

Even so, Trump’s right-wing nominees could not win confirmation to the Supreme Court until then–Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) in 2017 ended the filibuster for Supreme Court justices, reducing the votes necessary for confirmation from 60 to as low as 50. Fifty-four senators confirmed Gorsuch; 50 confirmed Kavanaugh; 52 confirmed Barrett.

On June 24, 2022, by a vote of 6 to 3, in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Five of the justices said: “The Constitution does not confer a right to abortion.” ....

 

 

[Zorral]

Why Jan. 6 insurrectionists sent a letter to the Folger Shakespeare Library
On Jan. 6 — and long before it — Shakespeare was coopted by white nationalists

https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2024/01/22/folger-shakespeare-library-january-6/

Quote

 

While insurrectionists were plotting to storm the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, they took time to write and send a letter to an institution two blocks from their target: the Folger Shakespeare Library, the world’s largest collection of material related to the English playwright.

“We will be blocking access to your building … to prevent our persons of grievance from using you as a loophole,” read the insurrectionists’ letter, which circulated on a pro-Trump message board called TheDonald before the insurrection and was published this month in the Folger’s online archive.

The letter explained that the insurrectionists would create a 2.4-mile blockade “surrounding all buildings to which the U.S. Capitol has underground tunnels to” — including the John Adams Building of the Library of Congress, with which the Folger shares a block — presumably to prevent those inside the Capitol from escaping through the buildings. ....

.... It might seem odd that the insurrectionists sent the letter to an institution that memorializes Shakespeare. But the Bard’s relationship to white nationalism — and specifically to a white American identity — has been long documented by scholars, including those who have drawn comparisons between the playwright’s works and the Jan. 6 insurrection. ....

 

 

[TrackerNeil]

2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

At any rate, most of those other 38% will come back to the fold eventually, but I was hoping for more reluctant Republicans than is visible.

Your hope may prove well founded.

I think political opinions get baked in after awhile, and I suspect that opinions about Trump are as baked as one can imagine. Aside from Democratic downballot performance, that's another reason I don't place much stock in those swing-state polls from last autumn. Who exactly is changing minds on Donald Trump? Young anti-Israel protestors? Abortion advocates?

While I've no doubt some few will swing back to Trump--it's a big country, after all--I sincerely doubt that most Republicans who voted Biden in 2020, against their own party, are going to change their minds. After all, both Trump and Biden are pretty much the same candidates they were in 2020. (Trump has more indictments than he did then, it is true.)

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

I think political opinions get baked in after awhile, and I suspect that opinions about Trump are as baked as one can imagine. Aside from Democratic downballot performance, that's another reason I don't place much stock in those swing-state polls from last autumn. Who exactly is changing minds on Donald Trump? Young anti-Israel protestors? Abortion advocates?

Another similar point is that since 2015, the times when Trump was getting the most press was usually when he polls the worst.  During periods of comparative quiet, his polling typically improves.  Trump, his legal trouble and his dangerous statements, are going to be getting a lot more attention this summer/fall than they are right now.  There is good reason to think that people will remember how much the dislike Trump when he's dominating the news a lot more. 

[Kalbear]

6 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

The GOP is going after “other”.  While making themselves “other” to the rest of the nation via their xenophobic politics.

So?

You think this is a cutting response or some witty comeback, but this is how a whole lot of people want to be. This is how people have always been, at least quite a lot of them. We see this in Germany with AFD, we see it in France with Le Pen, we see it in Italy and Spain and Sweden. 

They don't see what you said as something shameful - they take pride in it. Figure out how to get some of those people on your side or you'll just end up losing while telling them how shameful they should feel with their boot on your neck. 

[Zorral]

Cal State Faculty Begin Largest U.S. Strike of University Professors
Thousands of professors, lecturers and other academic staff members walked off the job in a protest that was expected to cancel most classes early in the academic period. They plan to strike for five days.

Funny how the article won't call adjuncts adjuncts and what this means, and that 'the faculty' is composed in many places, for undergrad classes, of adjuncts.  As close as it could get to saying this, was to say, 'part-time'.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/22/us/csu-california-faculty-strike.html

Quote

.... Mr. Jacobs said the unrest among faculty reflected universities’ growing reliance on part-time instructors and others who have very low starting pay. Workers across industries are grappling with wages that have not kept pace with high inflation, as well as the rising cost of housing and other living expenses, especially in California, where a busy period of walkouts in 2023 was called a “hot labor summer.” ....

Utterly misleading is to call this "starting pay."  There is no step up raise built in.  Flat fee. for the period of the course.  Period.  It is not a salary.  It is not promotional track.  It is work for hire.  Most undergraduates' courses are taught by work-for-hire people.  In case one is unaware -- these flat fee for hire are not living pay either.
 

[Phylum of Alexandria]

17 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Utterly misleading is to call this "starting pay."  There is no step up raise built in.  Flat fee. for the period of the course.  Period.  It is not a salary.  It is not promotional track.  It is work for hire.  Most undergraduates' courses are taught by work-for-hire people.  In case one is unaware -- these flat fee for hire are not living pay either.

It's good that faculty are finally starting to mobilize on this issue. Fuck the administration execs. Put them in their place.

On a related note, especially relevant for this thread, has anyone read Will Bunch's book After the Ivory Tower Falls? It's a recent history of how higher education has become one of the defining dimensions of our current culture war. Additionally, it goes into the manifold problems that universities face, particularly what privatization and neoliberal business models have done to them. Not a fun read, but very interesting.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

52 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

So?

You think this is a cutting response or some witty comeback, but this is how a whole lot of people want to be. This is how people have always been, at least quite a lot of them. We see this in Germany with AFD, we see it in France with Le Pen, we see it in Italy and Spain and Sweden. 

They don't see what you said as something shameful - they take pride in it. Figure out how to get some of those people on your side or you'll just end up losing while telling them how shameful they should feel with their boot on your neck. 

No.  Not witty or cutting… deeply saddening.  I say that in full acknowledgment of what you say above.

Edited January 22 by Ser Scot A Ellison

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Another similar point is that since 2015, the times when Trump was getting the most press was usually when he polls the worst.  During periods of comparative quiet, his polling typically improves.  Trump, his legal trouble and his dangerous statements, are going to be getting a lot more attention this summer/fall than they are right now.  There is good reason to think that people will remember how much the dislike Trump when he's dominating the news a lot more. 

I guess for me there are a lot more variables than 'vote for Trump or Biden'. I do think that's an important one, but it's definitely not the only important one.

• Some voters will be on the fence as to which they'll vote for, and did switch from 2016 Trump to 2020 Biden and may switch back. 
• Some voters came out to vote for Trump and Trump only; when Trump is not on the ballot they simply don't vote. This is a good way to explain why off-year votes haven't gone well for Republicans and explain what @TrackerNeil keeps pointing out.
• Some voters came out to vote AGAINST Trump in 2020 based on promises that he needed to be defeated. There's a good chance many of them will, but not all.
• Some voters came out to vote against Trump in 2020 based on promises that things would be better or back to normal. There's a good chance they will stay home this time.

IMO, the biggest single factor is not the Trump-Biden switchers; it's the people who despise both candidates and will just stay home. My suspicion is that those people were significantly in favor of Biden in the last election and voted for him, only to find that things didn't get all that much better under Biden either. (unfairly, IMO, but that's the feeling they have). 

The second biggest factor is that of the specific voters in specific areas. The election will still basically come down to only like 8 key states, so looking at national viewpoints matters a lot less than looking at those states. It might not even be that high, honestly; it might be as simple as looking at Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia. 

[Zorral]

A very important factor you left out as to who will vote, not vote, or who they will vote for, the younger progressive voters who were there for him last time, and Black voters who were there for him last time: his support for Israel is most definitely not appreciated.  And the opposite who feel he is being intimidated by the younger and Other voters.

[Kalbear]

10 minutes ago, Zorral said:

A very important factor you left out as to who will vote, not vote, or who they will vote for, the younger progressive voters who were there for him last time, and Black voters who were there for him last time: his support for Israel is most definitely not appreciated.  And the opposite who feel he is being intimidated by the younger and Other voters.

I didn't leave that out at all. That'd be the "Some voters came out to vote against Trump in 2020 based on promises that things would be better or back to normal. There's a good chance they will stay home this time."

 

[Zorral]

Israel wasn't a factor last time.  Abortion was though -- already, even before the fascist scotus members rolled back this human right.  Still is.  And neither was Ukraine a factor in 2020, but it is now.   So, no, not a part of what you think it was.

Edited January 22 by Zorral

[Kalbear]

3 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Israel wasn't a factor last time.  Abortion was though -- already, even before the fascist scotus members rolled back this human right.  Still is.  And neither was Ukraine a factor in 2020, but it is now.   So, no, not a part of what you think it was.

Okay, I know what I meant and that was what I meant. Feel free to keep telling me that I'm wrong though, that's worked out super well for you in the past. 

My point, simply, is that a whole lot of people voted for Biden with the thoughts that things would get better under him. What those 'things' were are always ephemeral and vague but they roughly went with things like the economy, foreign relations, wars, international respect, moral acceptance. And a lot of those - thanks to things like Ukraine, Israel, inflation, the Covid response, Afghanistan - did not get better. The important factor is not about WHY it didn't get better because it doesn't matter; the important part is that they voted for Biden on the promise that it would get better in those ways and it didn't turn out that way.