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R+L=J v.18


Angalin

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Either way she must have blamed Rhaegar for what happened to her brother and father as a result of his actions.

Why must she? Brandons actions were stupid, not Rhaegar's fault. And Aerys's actions were his own madness, again not Rhaegar's fault.

She might have blamed Rhaegar for these stupid and irresponsible actions of other people. But it wouldn't be logical or fair for her to do so. So why 'must' she do so?

We also don't know what actions Rhaegar (and/or Lyanna) took, if any, to mitigate what they appeared to have done. We never hear anything about what Rickard knew, nor in fact even what Brandon knew. Or any other participant.

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See Tower of the Hand or the Citadel of the Wiki. There are probably much better timelines out there (has EB or anyone else done one for the Rebellion like this for the 'current' series timeline?)

I've not seen any that I trust. Unlike the present time in the series (where we know at least the date of Joffrey and Margaery's wedding,) we have NO firm dates for anything during the rebellion. We have, as you note, the reference to the end of Aerys's reign in 283 as stated in the appendices of A Game of Thrones, and we are fairly certain of 281 as the year of the tourney at Harrenhal, but that only puts years, as you note as well, to any attempted timeline of the rebellion. So, no, not that I know of anyway, which is why my own feeble effort in the last thread is only a relative timeline (trying to put events in order to which happened first) and not anything like trying to, as of yet, tie events down to certain dates. I don't think that can be reasonably attempted with the information on hand.

Btw, I agree with you that only a year between the tourney and the sack is highly, highly unlikely - we certainly don't "know" that it was such a short time.

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Why must she? Brandons actions were stupid, not Rhaegar's fault. And Aerys's actions were his own madness, again not Rhaegar's fault.

She might have blamed Rhaegar for these stupid and irresponsible actions of other people. But it wouldn't be logical or fair for her to do so. So why 'must' she do so?

We also don't know what actions Rhaegar (and/or Lyanna) took, if any, to mitigate what they appeared to have done. We never hear anything about what Rickard knew, nor in fact even what Brandon knew. Or any other participant.

You're right! I could have used 'might', that would have been better. :)

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FanTasy: "But we never once hear Ned say that Lyanna was infatuated with Rhaegar, that she loved him."

I think that we never hear him say that because it would ruin the storytelling, not because it necessarily did not happen. We do know that Lyanna thought that Robert did not have it in him to be a faithful husband, and Ned at some point wondered whether Raeghar also frequented brothels - the context, IMHO, made it sound that the answer was apparently "no". I find this comparison rather weird to make, if Ned believed Raeghar to be and abductor and rapist... but for a lover/husband, quite natural.

Also - I can't find my AGOT, apparently I lent it so someone and never got it back, so I can't check - that moment when Cersei explains to Ned that she hates Robert because he called her "Lyanna" on their wedding night, and Ned thinks something along the line of "sad irony": what irony? That Robert was so infatuated with Lyanna, while she preferred another?

BTW, do we ever hear Ned express hatred towards the man who supposedly raped the sister he held so dear? I can't recall a single occasion.

I had alot of the same questions too, but have been persuaded that Lyanna did love Rhaegar.

In ADWD, Selmy states that "Rhaegar loved his Lady Lyanna and thousands died for it," when comparing Dany and Daarios relationship, and this comes as close to any criticism that Selmy has of Rhaegar as it implies he chose his heart rather than duty.

Selmy later refers to these loves as slow poisons and deadly- as deadly as anything else that destroys this particular Kingdom.

I think when Selmy considers these things, he may be waiting to see what decisions Dany makes.

In this tale of three royal siblings, Rhaegar came as close as anything to the perfect future King, but maybe failed in the last hour, because he did not choose duty when he should have.

Viserys was unstable, and was made worse by his life in exile.

But, which direction will Dany go?

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Good point,.

Do we know for sure the abduction was a year after Harrenhal (I tend to get a bit confused by all the timelines :eek: ) ?

Hmph ... we lack a good witness, for instance Rickard.

I always found it odd that Brandon went to King's Landing to confront Rhaegar.

First of all, Rhaegar wasn't even there, so it was in many ways not a smart move, and the consequences were disastrous.

Why Brandon?

Let's see what was at stake here, setting aside for a moment the 'romantic angle' of the story.

House Stark and House Baratheon made a deal to join their houses: Robert would marry Lyanna.

I believe - but without conclusive reference in the text, I guess - that this deal was made as part of a bigger deal: to combine the strength of three houses.

The ruler of Storm's End would wed the daughter of the lord of Winterfell, the heir of Winterfell would wed a Tully.

That fits in the 'southron ambitions' Rickard displayed, influenced by the maester (a bastard Hightower?) that was at Winterfell before Maester Luwin.

Then one part of the deal is ruined: Lyanna disappears.

She is possibly kidnapped by Rhaegar.

That in itself seems like such a foolish thing to do.

If he was interested in Lyanna to make the third child in his bloodline, why not go to Richard Stark first and propose for Lyanna?

If Rickard had southreon ambitions, what better than wedding his daughter to the heir to the Iron Throne?

The deal could have made sweet for House Baratheon as well if a Targaryen princess, Rhaegars daughter, was promised to House Baratheon.

Well, maybe there was such a proposal and Rickard refused.

Then Rhaegar could have taken matters in his own hand and the shit hit the fan.

What you would expect is that Rickard went to Kings Landing, as the one who closed the deal on the Stark-Baratheon marriage contract and that he would lay his grief before the Small Council and/or the king.

So why this rash and utterly foolish action by Brandon?

Well, anything is possible, I guess, We have so little information.

I think it could just be that Brandon was simply scared for his sister, and without the calming influence of his Father couldn't be talked off the ledge.

I think with Rhaegar and Lyanna, there are so many combinations of events, with fools love being the primary instigator. (I personally think that when Selmy states that "thousands died" for that love, he's speaking volumes).

I think while prophesy was important to Rhaegar, when he met Lyanna she replaced his preoccupation with prophesy, thus he actually fulfilled it.

(Rhaegar trying to fufill prophesy is the one area I have a problem. I think most of us understand prophesy to be something that just occurs- you don't "tweak" it).

Finding out that Elia could have no more children was probably the event in which prophesy became much more signifigant to Rhaegar, (and also the fact that the clock was ticking down on Lyannas impending marriage).

He was probably still pining for Lyanna at the time of finding out Aegon would be his last child with Elia, so Rhaegar is most likely in a fairly bad state over these events.

If the visions from the House of the Undying are somewhat accurate, Rhaegar wastes no time in telling Elia that he basically is going to seek that third child- and this as she's still nursing an infant Aegon.

Was he up against a deadline for this prophesy?

Or again, was it to do more with Lyannas own impending marriage?

As I've said before, a bad man needs no excuse to do something like taking the woman he wants, or loves. And really, no man in the Kingdom is going to go to war to stop him.

If it makes him happy, and the right compensations are made, who cares?

The Starks are from the unknown North- who wants to fight and bleed on their behalf?

It just so happens that Barantheon, (perhaps being alligned to the Targaryens going back to Aegon the Conquerer), had much more temerity, and held onto Lyanna like a pitbull.

(Of course they wouldn't merely fight for Berantheon either. Aerys didn't help overstepping as he did).

But Rhaegar is not a bad man, he is actually a good man, so to assauge his own conscience, decides that prophesy deems Lyanna for him, so therefore he does what he does because the ends justify the means in "saving the world."

Rhaegar the paragon would not conscientiously be happy that Elia could have no more children, but Rhaegar the man might subconscientiously be relieved, because now he has the perfect political arguement to make to the Lords Paramount to set Elia aside, and take Lyanna for his wife, (had he won of course).

(You can't just have one Heir as something could happen to him).

That along with your point about Rickards southron ambitions.

Can you imagine if he'd won the war, getting in front of his Lords and saying he did what he did for a prophesy about horrors that no one believed in anymore?

I think he'd have the political saavy to make the arguement that makes sense to them.

Ridding them of a King that was slipping more and more into madness also helps them to believe whatever Rhaegar wants them to believe.

And really, poor sickly Elia was probably not long for this world anyway, he'd have to choose another wife anyway, so why not marry the North? ;)

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Is there evidence that Jon's legitimate?

I'll tackle this one.

Short answer: Yes.

Long answer: The three Kingsguard members are still at the Tower of Joy after they know that Aerys, Rhaegar and Aegon are dead. By the laws of succession, Viserys, who we know (and, more importantly, they know) is on Dragonstone, is now the king. But Dayne, Whent and Hightower aren't on Dragonstone with him. They didn't even send one guy to Dragonstone; none of them are there. It's not just Viserys on Dragonstone — there's also his mother Rhaella (herself an eventual, possible heir), who's pregnant with Daenerys. Three members of the royal family, but no Kingsguard. The remaining Kingsguard are still at the Tower of Joy.

From what I understand, a king/prince's orders to the Kingsguard are null after his death. Meaning, whatever orders Rhaegar may have given the Kingsguard were voided by his death, and the Kingsguard's loyalty should have shifted immediately to the new king, Viserys. Ned even hints at this when he confronts the men. "Willem Darry's on Dragonstone with Viserys." The guys say they know, but it doesn't matter. Why doesn't it matter? Because Viserys isn't the king. Why are the Kingsguard still at the Tower of Joy and not on Dragonstone? Because their actual king is at the Tower of Joy.

I've seen the argument that the Kingsguard were at the Tower of Joy because of the Prince That Was Promised prophecy, or what they believed to be the prophecy. But again, when Ned confronts them, they're clear that they're still there in the capacity of the Kingsguard. They're the Kingsguard and they do not flee. They're right where they're supposed to be, guarding whom they're supposed to guard. Rhaegar's orders might be what brought them there, but it's Jon who's keeping them there. They would not be there guarding a bastard. Consider this in conjunction with the fact that Targaryens have historically practiced polygamy.

Whether any of this will actually matter in terms of the Irone Throne remains to be seen — I'm not so sure it will, or if there'll even be an Iron Throne at the end of the story. But at the time of the Tower of Joy confrontation, the Kingsguard knew exactly what they were doing.

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@Apple Martini: I said the same thing...Rhaegar told them to stay and guard a pregnant Lyanna...why she was left alone to give birth which is what I think, I do not know. Apparently men were loyal to the death when it came to Rhaegar even when he was dead. I have to read about that prophecy, but that is why I think Jon is their child as well.

As for Dany, well that is an entirely new conversation, and many have said she is going mad, as many think the Targaryen blood is tainted. But for now I will say it is lame but youth is part of her problem, but when she saw the past, her brother dying, she also saw Robb's death as she said she saw a man with head of wolf with dead bodies around him looking at her sadly. So she has some kind of powers, and I also think she has a connection with Drogon that is a bit like a warg as she says that she and Drogon screamed at the same time when he was stabbed.

Anyway that is OT

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@Apple Martini: I said the same thing...Rhaegar told them to stay and guard a pregnant Lyanna...why she was left alone to give birth which is what I think, I do not know. Apparently men were loyal to the death when it came to Rhaegar even when he was dead. I have to read about that prophecy, but that is why I think Jon is their child as well.

I actually don't think she was left alone. I think Wylla was probably brought from Starfall to be a midwife/wet nurse.

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Rhaegar's orders might be what brought them there, but it's Jon who's keeping them there. They would not be there guarding a bastard. Consider this in conjunction with the fact that Targaryens have historically practiced polygamy.

Exactly my line of thought, though I suppose that the prophecy and the love of the well-loved and respected prince might play a part in this, as well. However, I also think that their presence at the Tower of Joy is one of the strongest proof of the whole R+L = J theory: they definitely wouldn't be stuck there just to guard an abducted mistress.

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Is there evidence that Jon's legitimate?

I'll tackle this one.

Short answer: Yes.

Apple Martini, it's a great explanation of the Kingsguard's actions, but, after ADwD, it is not the only explanation that makes sense. It may not be Jon at the Tower of Joy; it could be Aegon, or both Jon and Aegon. I think it is just Jon they are there guarding, but we have to look elsewhere for the clues for the reasons it is likely just Jon, I think.

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@Apple Martini: I said the same thing...Rhaegar told them to stay and guard a pregnant Lyanna...why she was left alone to give birth which is what I think, I do not know. Apparently men were loyal to the death when it came to Rhaegar even when he was dead. I have to read about that prophecy, but that is why I think Jon is their child as well.

As for Dany, well that is an entirely new conversation, and many have said she is going mad, as many think the Targaryen blood is tainted. But for now I will say it is lame but youth is part of her problem, but when she saw the past, her brother dying, she also saw Robb's death as she said she saw a man with head of wolf with dead bodies around him looking at her sadly. So she has some kind of powers, and I also think she has a connection with Drogon that is a bit like a warg as she says that she and Drogon screamed at the same time when he was stabbed.

Anyway that is OT

Bloodraven was a Targaryen Warg. So I defiantly don't think it's just something that Northern people can be. Doesn't Bloodraven tell Bran in the cave that one out of every thousand is a potential warg, and one out every ten thousand a potential greenseer.

So why can't Danaerys be a Warg of some sort?

A warg may possibly go hand and hand with being a dragon rider.

Just a thought

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Bloodraven was a Targaryen Warg. So I defiantly don't think it's just something that Northern people can be. Doesn't Bloodraven tell Bran in the cave that one out of every thousand is a potential warg, and one out every ten thousand a potential greenseer.

So why can't Danaerys be a Warg of some sort?

A warg may possibly go hand and hand with being a dragon rider.

Just a thought

No reason she can't but didn't Bloodraven have some sort of northern connection as well as Targ (i know his mom was from the Riverlands but I thought there was some mention of a nothern connection outside of the NW), which might account for his tallents? Only mention it because it does seem to be a more northern thing and there wasn't much blood mixing between north and south even after the Stark knelt. That and references to how the Targs controlled dragons in the past with spells and other mechanisms suggests that warging did not go hand in hand with dragon riding. Furthermore with the exception of Bloodraven there was no hint of a greenseeing/warg tallent in the Targ line that I can recall, though I have seen the theory that the reason the Targs/Valleria stopped at Dragonstone was that they were worried about the wargs that lived on Westeros being able to take the dragons, not sure that has any merit though.

Generally I think Dany has a sensitivity to magic/the supernatural/warging that lets her see things (though in THOTU the house could have been responsible for the visions with no natural tallent by Dany required) and control Drogon but that it will never mature to the point where she can see through the eyes of her dragon (like Jon), other creatures (like Arya) or the countless things that Bran will be able to do. Now if Dany (or Aegon if he is real and shows the same affinity with dragons) had a child with a Stark that might be a very different story but also total spec.

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In all the discussions there is debate about if Rhaegar took Lyanna willingly or otherwise. But what if it was the other way around and it was Lyanna that presued Rhaegar. She went to him rather than the other way arond. She would have told Ned the tale of this and Jon's birth. In this view Ned would have no reason to hate Rhaegar and also explains his comment about pity for Cersei and robert. The irony been that robert risked war and ruin on his house for revenge for Lyanna and it was Lyanna all along not Rhaegar who was the instigator.

The question of who knows about the prophecy also comes into it. Did Lyanna already know about it and realise she was the ice to rhaegars fire, did she tell ned. There is nothing anywhere to suggest the prophecy isn't knowledge freely available to anyone, just that it appears to be very old and may be linked to the others which no one seems to believe in anymore including the Starks and the north and even the NW.

Did Lyanna make Ned promise to keep Jon because she knows his importance, even more important than a war spliting the realm and possibly leading to the death of most of her family.

Lets assume Howland Reed knows all the story (no real reason to suppose he doesn't) He believes in the prophecy, and Jon is the PTWP, Ned is too pragmatic to believe in such nonsence. If he did believe in the Others. If he did he would have taken steps when he heard the tale of the NW deserter he executed.

Howland and Ned havent spoken for years yet Ned still considers him to be his friend. Was this perhaps because they disagreed on Ned telling Jon his true identy.

Lyanna being the instigator answers a lot of questions, Ned doesnt believe Jon to be TPTWP but Lyanna makes him promise to keep him safe so he does and protects his identity because if Robert knew he was rhaegars son he would kill him Ned or no Ned.

Also fits with Ned saying he will tell him who his mother was after he comes back from KL. Him coming back would mean the mess down there is sorted out, so the threat to the realm is gone. Jon is in the NW so cant do anything away from there. If he believes in Lyanna's story he is in the right place to do the job of the PTWP, if he doesnt believe he has his identity which means nothing anyway as he is a brother of the NW. and Ned would know that Jon was not the only Targ on the wall

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In all the discussions there is debate about if Rhaegar took Lyanna willingly or otherwise. But what if it was the other way around and it was Lyanna that presued Rhaegar. She went to him rather than the other way arond. She would have told Ned the tale of this and Jon's birth. In this view Ned would have no reason to hate Rhaegar and also explains his comment about pity for Cersei and robert. The irony been that robert risked war and ruin on his house for revenge for Lyanna and it was Lyanna all along not Rhaegar who was the instigator.

The question of who knows about the prophecy also comes into it. Did Lyanna already know about it and realise she was the ice to rhaegars fire, did she tell ned. There is nothing anywhere to suggest the prophecy isn't knowledge freely available to anyone, just that it appears to be very old and may be linked to the others which no one seems to believe in anymore including the Starks and the north and even the NW.

Did Lyanna make Ned promise to keep Jon because she knows his importance, even more important than a war spliting the realm and possibly leading to the death of most of her family.

Lets assume Howland Reed knows all the story (no real reason to suppose he doesn't) He believes in the prophecy, and Jon is the PTWP, Ned is too pragmatic to believe in such nonsence. If he did believe in the Others. If he did he would have taken steps when he heard the tale of the NW deserter he executed.

Howland and Ned havent spoken for years yet Ned still considers him to be his friend. Was this perhaps because they disagreed on Ned telling Jon his true identy.

Lyanna being the instigator answers a lot of questions, Ned doesnt believe Jon to be TPTWP but Lyanna makes him promise to keep him safe so he does and protects his identity because if Robert knew he was rhaegars son he would kill him Ned or no Ned.

Also fits with Ned saying he will tell him who his mother was after he comes back from KL. Him coming back would mean the mess down there is sorted out, so the threat to the realm is gone. Jon is in the NW so cant do anything away from there. If he believes in Lyanna's story he is in the right place to do the job of the PTWP, if he doesnt believe he has his identity which means nothing anyway as he is a brother of the NW. and Ned would know that Jon was not the only Targ on the wall

I think the general consensus is that it was mutual.

I don't know how far along you've gotten in the books, so I don't want to say anything that will spoil it, but in one of the books, it pretty much comes out that Rhaegar was in love with her.

He was also the one who gave the TOJ it's name which fairly well indicates Rhaegars sentiments about the time spent there with her.

And when you hear people speak of those events, it's remembered as Rhaegar going off after the "wolf girl."

As far as prophesy goes, while the Starks are probably more devout to their religion than say the Dornish are to the Seven, I doubt that Lyanna was a religious girl, but I think that prophesy was a Targaryen one.

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Apple Martini, it's a great explanation of the Kingsguard's actions, but, after ADwD, it is not the only explanation that makes sense. It may not be Jon at the Tower of Joy; it could be Aegon, or both Jon and Aegon. I think it is just Jon they are there guarding, but we have to look elsewhere for the clues for the reasons it is likely just Jon, I think.

I don't remember anything from ADwD, that suggested Aegon could have been at the TOJ with Jon???

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I don't remember anything from ADwD, that suggested Aegon could have been at the TOJ with Jon???

In ADwD we have the emergence, for the first time in the series, of another credible character whose presence at the tower would explain the Kingsguard trio's actions. Prior to this we had every indication that Aegon was dead, and it may well be that that is still the case and Young Griff is in truth a "mummer's dragon." I, like many others, think he is a fake, but the possibility he is the real deal can't be ignored.

If Aegon is in truth Rhaegar's son and he is at the tower, then the presence of all three remaining loyal and free members of the Kingsguard is explained without having to conclude they all chose to break their vows. Their actions, just as in the case of Aegon being dead and Jon being the legitimate son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, are easily understood - they are there in fulfillment of their first duty to guard their king.

Now, could Aegon have been at the tower? I think we have to, at this point, based on Young Griff's tale of a baby switch engineered by Varys, say that it is possible, although we have no story yet linking him there. If the switch occurred, then it is not out of the question to think the heir to the throne was hidden, along with Lyanna, in the Prince's Pass under the trio's protection, and was then smuggled out of the country in Lady Ashara's care.

My problem with this, of course, is that we are relying on Varys to have really done this thing and remained true to the Targaryen cause throughout the years AND we have this large neon sign calling Aegon a fake in Daenerys's prophecy. I think he IS a fake, but I also don't think we can conclude that's the case just yet.

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In ADwD we have the emergence, for the first time in the series, of another credible character whose presence at the tower would explain the Kingsguard trio's actions. Prior to this we had every indication that Aegon was dead, and it may well be that that is still the case and Young Griff is in truth a "mummer's dragon." I, like many others, think he is a fake, but the possibility he is the real deal can't be ignored.

If Aegon is in truth Rhaegar's son and he is at the tower, then the presence of all three remaining loyal and free members of the Kingsguard is explained without having to conclude they all chose to break their vows. Their actions, just as in the case of Aegon being dead and Jon being the legitimate son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, are easily understood - they are there in fulfillment of their first duty to guard their king.

Now, could Aegon have been at the tower? I think we have to, at this point, based on Young Griff's tale of a baby switch engineered by Varys, say that it is possible, although we have no story yet linking him there. If the switch occurred, then it is not out of the question to think the heir to the throne was hidden, along with Lyanna, in the Prince's Pass under the trio's protection, and was then smuggled out of the country in Lady Ashara's care.

My problem with this, of course, is that we are relying on Varys to have really done this thing and remained true to the Targaryen cause throughout the years AND we have this large neon sign calling Aegon a fake in Daenerys's prophecy. I think he IS a fake, but I also don't think we can conclude that's the case just yet.

I get what you're saying, but I don't think there's really any evidence, even loose evidence, to suggest that Aegon was anywhere near the Tower of Joy. For one thing, wouldn't the Kingsguard at the Tower be working under the assumption that Aegon was dead? If you believe Varys' story, he didn't trust anyone when it came to the switch — it's possible even Elia herself didn't know (although I think she would have), and certainly Aerys didn't and Rhaegar probably didn't either — so I have a really hard time believing that this switched baby somehow ended up in Dorne with three Kingsguard members. And if Aegon's alive and switched and the real deal, what on earth are they still doing at the Tower? Their remaining at the Tower probably relies on Lyanna's weak condition — they're waiting for her to recover or die before moving on — or Jon's youth. But if Aegon's alive, they don't "need" Jon anymore (no more than, apparently, anyone needed poor Rhaenys) and their motivation for being, let alone staying, at the Tower goes out the window. It also doesn't make sense to me why Varys would send the baby inland into Dorne instead of getting him across the Narrow Sea as soon as he could. What would be the point? If Varys wants Ashara to get the baby out, surely it's safer for her to come to them, rather than the other way around?

Biggest hole: If Varys knew about the Tower of Joy to smuggle the baby Aegon there, he'd also have to know that Lyanna Stark was there and that Lyanna Stark was pregnant and there. Even when he's alone with Ned and it's clear that Ned's on the block, Varys doesn't for an instant acknowledge that he knows about Lyanna and Jon's parentage. I'm pretty confident he had no idea that the Tower of Joy existed at all, or if he did, he wouldn't have known where to find it.

So ... yeah. I don't see it, not at all.

And this is also going on the assumption that the baby switch happened at all. :P

ETA: As other people have said in the "Why wasn't Rhaenys saved?" thread, it makes the most sense that a switch, if one occurred, happened at the last minute. Otherwise, there would have been no motivation for a switch at all, as Aegon wasn't in any real danger. If this is the case — Varys and Elia make a mad-dash swap as the city's going down — then Dayne, Whent and Hightower are already at the Tower (and they were "elsewhere" when Rhaegar left for the Trident, if I remember correctly; they've been absent from the capital for a while) and no one in the capital knows where it is or even that it is. Ashara is given as a possibility for who tipped Ned off about it, but there are other (arguably better) explanations for why she knows about it that don't involve Aegon: Her brother is there, Starfall might be the Tower's supplier, Wylla (her maid) is likely there.

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I haven't read the predecessors of this thread but i wonder how R+L=J believers explain the fact that Jon looks more like Ned than any of Ned´s true born sons but has absolutely none of the distinctive Targaryen features. I know Lyanna was a Stark and it´s not that unusual to look very much like your uncle but if your father has silver hair and purple eyes you are bound to turn out not looking like "You have more of the north in you" then your half siblings whose mother is from a place down south while you have lineage from old valyria a totally different continent.

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