The Rundown of the Dance of Dragons 2.0

[OberynBlackfyre]

In danger of taking your thread way off topic here, but I look at this SSM entry and cannot help but doubt the 'one person, three aspects' interpretation (though I used to like it):

http://www.westeros....SSM/Entry/1261/

Parsing this language, is the implication not that the first two heads are Targaryen's (and only the third is not)? If this is so then the 'one person, three aspects' thing cannot be true. And his emphasis on the "BE" makes me think he was talking about someone with Targ blood, but who is not legitimate. Could this be a Blackfyre like Aegon? Maybe, but i doubt it since the foreshadowing for him fighting Dany (who, if the heads are three different people, she is certainly one of them along with Jon) is so strong.

My guess is the third head will be either Jaime or Tyrion (who I know you think will marry Dany...though why you think it kind of baffles me :P ), because it will actually turn out that one of them is the bastard child of the Mad King.

Actually, they are "helping" because the Shavepate wants to execute them for killing Brazen Beasts (in addition to unleashing dragons on the city) and Barristan told them they could avoid that fate if they did what he asked. They had little choice in the matter. And Gerris Drinkwater has certainly not accepted that Quentyn was to blame. Barristan actually got pissed off at him for 'vilifying Dany' as he termed it. So if Drinkwater tells the Dornish his take on events...

The foreshadowing for Dany being at war with Dorne is quite strong imo. If Quentyn's death didn't happen specifically to set up war between them, I honestly have no idea what the point of introducing him into the story was. All he actually did in life was unleash the dragons on Meereen; no need to make up some Dornish prince who travels half way around the world just to do that. His death needs to have major ramifications or his whole character was kinda pointless imo.

Also, have you read the TWOW material that GRRM has released?

The Dance of the Dragons war is quite heavily (and blatantly) foreshadowed in the Arianne chapter he released. Arianne also seems to be having some negative feelings towards Dany, and this is before news of Quent's death, so It doesn't bode well for their future interactions imo.

Also, a Tyrell army is marching towards Storm's End to fight Aegon and the Golden Company. Arianne is on her way to meet Aegon at SE and she has the power to bring forth the Dornish army in the Boneway to support him against the Tyrell's simply by sending back the word "dragon" to Dorne. Put the pieces together and it is quite clear that the Aegon/Dornish alliance is pretty much a lock imo,

I have read the TWOW of chapter for Arienne,

however it doesn't state for sure that anything is set to happen She already doubts herself about Connington and Aegon as it is.

Plus Quentyn dying might not be a BAD thing to her. She has had at best a luke warm relationship with him, and she doesn't even know him.

[Fire Eater]

what I stated is that we don't know if Dorne will ally with Aegon for sure. Even in the leaked chapter for Arianne we have no idea for sure if she will believe Aegon or not. Does it seem likely? Yes. But other things have seemed likelier within the series and did not happen.

And there were things that didn't seem likely in the series and did happen, like the Tyrells accepting Tyrion's offer of alliance.

The foreshadowing for Dany being at war with Dorne is quite strong imo. If Quentyn's death didn't happen specifically to set up war between them, I honestly have no idea what the point of introducing him into the story was. All he actually did in life was unleash the dragons on Meereen; no need to make up some Dornish prince who travels half way around the world just to do that. His death needs to have major ramifications or his whole character was kinda pointless imo.

Exactly

@Mladen

Thanks for the compliments, much appreciated. But I don't think Jon is going to head south until ADoS, since he has the Others to deal with, which requires his attention. I don't think he will come into contact with Dany until ADoS when she comes North. Aegon will be dead by then.

[OberynBlackfyre]

And there were things that didn't seem likely in the series and did happen, like the Tyrells accepting Tyrion's offer of alliance.

Exactly

@Mladen

Thanks for the compliments, much appreciated. But I don't think Jon is going to head south until ADoS, since he has the Others to deal with, which requires his attention. I don't think he will come into contact with Dany until ADoS when she comes North. Aegon will be dead by then.

I think the whole thing is 50/50. One major point that I'd say is false though is that Daenerys only gains Dorne as an enemy IF Doran stays alive. If the news DOES kill him and Arianne takes over you have to take into account the fact that Arianne has iffy feelings at best towards Quentyn. She might even be relieved that Dany's dragons killed him, because that's the kind of person she is. This has been proven every time she thinks about Quentyn.

Another is that the Tyrell alliance was a huge event that could have been guessed, simply because when Renly died they didn't go over to Stannis and had no talks with the Starks....where else were they to go, especially to make Margery a queen? that was a no brainer!

[Manderlay]

snip

First of all a good theory and well structured.

IIRC there is a Higtower and his sister going to Lys to hire sell sails for the fight against the Iron born, now Oldtown is one of the most prosperous ports in the seven kingdoms, surely the word of Daenerys and Dragons would have reached the hightowers, as we know from aDwD the council in KL discusses Daenerys and dragons, I suspect that the hightowers not only went to Essos to hire sell sails but also to go to Maereen to meet the last Targaryen who has three dragons. Lord Leyton Hightower is locked up in his tower studying scrolls and books of magic, which is in contrast to the Citadel and Maesters.

The Hightowers will join Aegon, yes that is true if he helps them against the Iron born but when Daenerys comes they will have to make a choice, wont they choose Daenerys if she claims that Aegon is a Blackfyre?, I mean the hightowers after all are targaryen loyalists and no one can dispute that Daenerys is a Targaryen, whereas Aegon was smuggled from KL by Varys who everyone distrusts and even JC was not there to vouch for that event.

[Mladen]

@Mladen

Thanks for the compliments, much appreciated. But I don't think Jon is going to head south until ADoS, since he has the Others to deal with, which requires his attention. I don't think he will come into contact with Dany until ADoS when she comes North. Aegon will be dead by then.

You welcome, you certainly deserve it. But I believe North will consolidate in WoW, and that Dany will make her first move towards North to see the Wall and understand the meaning of blue rose. With Sansa`s stories about Jon, Barristan mentioning the crown of blue roses given at Harrenhall, she might feel intruiged and go there. That`s where Jon would have a chance to fight the Others with dragons, and possibly reason first Dany, and later Aegon. Who knows, maybe his greatest battle as AAR/PTWP would be to bring the peace?

[Ser Wun Wun]

I think the whole thing is 50/50. One major point that I'd say is false though is that Daenerys only gains Dorne as an enemy IF Doran stays alive. If the news DOES kill him and Arianne takes over you have to take into account the fact that Arianne has iffy feelings at best towards Quentyn. She might even be relieved that Dany's dragons killed him, because that's the kind of person she is. This has been proven every time she thinks about Quentyn.

True, but you also have to take into account how extremely prideful and nationalistic the Dornish people in general are. Oberyn died in legitimate single combat and it worked them into a fervor. Quentyn can't match the Red Viper's popularity, but he was still a Prince of Dorne. One who was sent to treat with Dany, and ended up roasted by her Dragons. It certainly doesn't look good...

Even without Drinkwater's damning testimony, I think the Dornish will be inclined to blame Dany for murdering their Prince. What possible reason would they have to give her the benefit of the doubt that their Prince's death at the hands of her Dragon's was not her fault? It's going to be very tough for Dany to avoid being blamed in this situation, I would argue impossible really.

I agree that Arianne might subconsciously be relieved that Quent is dead, but this is not something she would ever admit to herself nor want others to believe about her. And assuming Doran is dead, Arianne would no doubt have those warmongering Sand Snakes she loves so much as her trusted advisers, yes? What do think they will whispering in the ear of the new leader of Dorne in response to the death of a Prince of Dorne? I think it would be something along the lines of "blood for blood".

[OberynBlackfyre]

True, but you also have to take into account how extremely prideful and nationalistic the Dornish people in general are. Oberyn died in legitimate single combat and it worked them into a fervor. Quentyn can't match the Red Viper's popularity, but he was still a Prince of Dorne. One who was sent to treat with Dany, and ended up roasted by her Dragons. It certainly doesn't look good...

Even without Drinkwater's damning testimony, I think the Dornish will be inclined to blame Dany for murdering their Prince. What possible reason would they have to give her the benefit of the doubt that their Prince's death at the hands of her Dragon's was not her fault? It's going to be very tough for Dany to avoid being blamed in this situation, I would argue impossible really.

I agree that Arianne might subconsciously be relieved that Quent is dead, but this is not something she would ever admit to herself nor want others to believe about her. And assuming Doran is dead, Arianne would no doubt have those warmongering Sand Snakes she loves so much as her trusted advisers, yes? What do think they will whispering in the ear of the new leader of Dorne in response to the death of a Prince of Dorne? I think it would be something along the lines of "blood for blood".

No I totally get what you are saying, however Arianne is her fathers daughter (to an extent). They have much more reason to hate the Lannisters and the Tyrells than they do Dany. It's at least possible that a semi relieved Arianne can convince the Sand Snakes that Dany and her dragons are they key to destroying all their enemies.

Dany has dragons, which is the equivalent to a nuke in this world. Just like in the real world, I think some people will side with her just SO they dont have her as an enemy.

Look at it this way: You would have two of Quentyns companions that can state that Dany was nowhere near the area when Quent died. Even if Doran got super pissed, he IS a cautious man, and he would be facing damning testimony and three dragons? idk.....

[KingHodorTargaryen]

Fire Eater, love this post. Completely agree with it except one small thing. Jon and Dany are going to have to marry. Dany regained her menstrual period in the Dothraki Sea, every aspect of Mirri's prophecy has been done except maybe with the exception of the mountains blowing over which would easily relate to the Wall. So Dany can now bear a heir. Everyone keeps saying that Jon should be King in the North with Dany as Queen in the South. Why wouldn't they marry and rule over both? They are both instrumental in saving the Wall, killing the Others and are both Targaryens. This is like frigging fairy tale circumstances here. Unless GRRM decides to fuck with us again with another death, this has to happen.

[OberynBlackfyre]

Fire Eater, love this post. Completely agree with it except one small thing. Jon and Dany are going to have to marry. Dany regained her menstrual period in the Dothraki Sea, every aspect of Mirri's prophecy has been done except maybe with the exception of the mountains blowing over which would easily relate to the Wall. So Dany can now bear a heir. Everyone keeps saying that Jon should be King in the North with Dany as Queen in the South. Why wouldn't they marry and rule over both? They are both instrumental in saving the Wall, killing the Others and are both Targaryens. This is like frigging fairy tale circumstances here. Unless GRRM decides to fuck with us again with another death, this has to happen.

that wasn't her menstruation, if anything it was a miscarriage. Truly, I believe it was the pale mare, because she also describes crapping herself A LOT.

[Fire Eater]

Fire Eater, love this post. Completely agree with it except one small thing. Jon and Dany are going to have to marry. Dany regained her menstrual period in the Dothraki Sea, every aspect of Mirri's prophecy has been done except maybe with the exception of the mountains blowing over which would easily relate to the Wall. So Dany can now bear a heir. Everyone keeps saying that Jon should be King in the North with Dany as Queen in the South. Why wouldn't they marry and rule over both? They are both instrumental in saving the Wall, killing the Others and are both Targaryens. This is like frigging fairy tale circumstances here. Unless GRRM decides to fuck with us again with another death, this has to happen.

Jon is busy at the Wall dealing with the Others while Dany is busy regaining her family's throne. Jon won't be King in the North since Rickon will be revealed, and Jon would have no seat since WF is taken along with the title of king, taken by Stannis. When is Jon going to decide to become the KitN when he has the incoming Long Night to deal with?

[Mladen]

Jon and Dany are going to have to marry. Dany regained her menstrual period in the Dothraki Sea

Please tell me that you do know that having menstrual period means nothing in terms of being infertile

Jon is busy at the Wall dealing with the Others while Dany is busy regaining her family's throne. Jon won't be King in the North since Rickon will be revealed, and Jon would have no seat since WF is taken along with the title of king, taken by Stannis. When is Jon going to decide to become the KitN when he has the incoming Long Night to deal with?

I believe that he would become KitN only to unite North and NW against Others. That way he could solve 2 problems with one title.

[Fire Eater]

I believe that he would become KitN only to unite North and NW against Others. That way he could solve 2 problems with one title.

I think that he will accept the title as the rightful King of Westeros when R+L=J is revealed, and he goes to Dany to command her to bring her forces to the Wall to aid against the Others. Before he comes, Dany will be fighting the Northmen who refuse to bend the knee to her, possibly for her refusing to name Rickon the Lord of WInterfell and Warden of the North, or rather the Northmen wanting a KitN.

[Mladen]

I think that he will accept the title as the rightful King of Westeros when R+L=J is revealed, and he goes to Dany to command her to bring her forces to the Wall to aid against the Others. Before he comes, Dany will be fighting the Northmen who refuse to bend the knee to her, possibly for her refusing to name Rickon the Lord of WInterfell and Warden of the North.

Wouldn`t be so sure. He will stay in the North for some time, and he will be there when Dany most likely land in the Vale. I think Sansa and Barristan will with their stories make Dany do to the Wall and meet with Jon, help him in the destruction of the Others, while accepting the harsh truth about her family. After that, I believe Jon will make Aegon and Dany realize what they are doing and somehow make them stop. As I said, I believe Jon will bring peace in Westeros.

[lady m]

Fire Eater, love this post. Completely agree with it except one small thing. Jon and Dany are going to have to marry. Dany regained her menstrual period in the Dothraki Sea, every aspect of Mirri's prophecy has been done except maybe with the exception of the mountains blowing over which would easily relate to the Wall. So Dany can now bear a heir.

Dany didn't regain her period. She had a miscarriage. Read the passage again, she specifically mentions it had been three months since she had last had her 'moon blood.'

[Faint]

Jon and Dany are going to have to marry. Dany regained her menstrual period in the Dothraki Sea, every aspect of Mirri's prophecy has been done except maybe with the exception of the mountains blowing over which would easily relate to the Wall.

Actually, the collapse of several temples in Meereen might very well fulfill the part of the prophecy referencing mountains blowing in the wind; temples which Daenerys herself had previously described as mountain-like. See here for more information.

I also think it important to point out that the prophecy is not truly fulfilled until Daenerys bears a living child and, presumably, dies in the process.

[Gordias]

Wonderful analysis and I very much agree with the bits about Aegon and Daenerys. Looking forward to tWoW to see how it all unfolds!

[Fire Eater]

I agree that Arianne might subconsciously be relieved that Quent is dead, but this is not something she would ever admit to herself nor want others to believe about her. And assuming Doran is dead, Arianne would no doubt have those warmongering Sand Snakes she loves so much as her trusted advisers, yes? What do think they will whispering in the ear of the new leader of Dorne in response to the death of a Prince of Dorne? I think it would be something along the lines of "blood for blood".

If Arianne has the Sand Snakes as her advisers, which sounds likely, she will be doomed.

The Sand Snakes are without a doubt, terrible political counselors, and their advice could push the Yronwood towards Dany and Tyrion. Dany may be a bad politician, but Tyrion has his father's political acumen, and could arrange something with Lord Yronwood.

[chrisdaw]

No I totally get what you are saying, however Arianne is her fathers daughter (to an extent). They have much more reason to hate the Lannisters and the Tyrells than they do Dany. It's at least possible that a semi relieved Arianne can convince the Sand Snakes that Dany and her dragons are they key to destroying all their enemies.

Dany has dragons, which is the equivalent to a nuke in this world. Just like in the real world, I think some people will side with her just SO they dont have her as an enemy.

Look at it this way: You would have two of Quentyns companions that can state that Dany was nowhere near the area when Quent died. Even if Doran got super pissed, he IS a cautious man, and he would be facing damning testimony and three dragons? idk.....

The message Dorne and JC will receive regarding Dany is that she is on the other side of the world embroiled in a city she's taken upon herself to rule, missing and possibly dead. Both parties have been expecting her to come West and it has never eventuated, and it will look to them less likely than ever that she will come, and even less likely she will come soon. To Dorne it becomes a choice of the rather impressive ally in the here and now and the ally they've been banking on that's not come good and looks less likely than ever to do so now.

Fire Eater, love this post. Completely agree with it except one small thing. Jon and Dany are going to have to marry.

Can all occur after the dance, the dance isn't the final battle of Ice and Fire. Don't see how the North factor into the dance, they have no horse in this race and have more than their own share of problems.

What I am merely stating is that I don't think the "dance of Dragons 2" is going to perfectly reflect the first one. For one major thing; is Aegon doesn't have a dragon, there will not be much dancing at all

I agree with the sentiment somewhat, but believe the answer is that Aegon will have a dragon or dragons come the dance. We have a precedent for a battle where a dragon-less force was slaughtered by dragons, the field of fire, it wouldn't be fitting if the dance were to simply follow in this manner. The whole special aspect of the dance is that both sides had dragons.

There are still three treasons Dany will know and I think people are assuming too much loyalty from Tyrion for Dany. The Rock is his life goal, a Lannister pays his debts and he owes Ben Plumm riches and JC his life. He grew to like Aegon and Plumm is a conspicuously fitting dragon courier.

[Ragnorak]

Fire Eater, you did an excellent job putting this together. I need to ponder it more and see if I can come up with anything to add (like maybe some potential meaning to sphinxes flanking the door to the council room in KL) but mostly I wanted to express appreciation for the work you did on putting this together.

[The Drunkard]

This is really good.