Varys's History and Motives: The Black Dragon's Revenge

[Iona]

Was it Illyrio talking to Tyrion in ADWD... gosh, I wish I had better memory, but he says something like "red or black, a dragon is still a dragon". I always thought that sounded a bit fishy, and when I read about the Blackfyre rebellion, it did give me some "fake Aegon is Blackfyre so what" -vibes...

[RoamingRonin]

Was it Illyrio talking to Tyrion in ADWD... gosh, I wish I had better memory, but he says something like "red or black, a dragon is still a dragon". I always thought that sounded a bit fishy, and when I read about the Blackfyre rebellion, it did give me some "fake Aegon is Blackfyre so what" -vibes...

Tyrion asked why would the Golden Company support Dany when they are known for supporting Blackfyres. Illyrio responds with, "Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon." The comment was about Dany being a true Targaryen and the Golden Company going against their history by joining their forces with her.

[Beorn Snow]

Well, one thing could support Varys being of Blackfyre descent:

There is power in king´s blood, myth. Maybe that is why he was chosen for the sacrifice.

[Lord Varys]

I'm not convinced that Varys is about revenge. Nor do I think he would make it his life's work to put a member of House Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. This feel as cheap as it reads here. Especially since a Blackfyre loyalist would most likely want to install a Blackfyre pretender for all the world to see, so that everyone could see that the true king has returned. But that's not possible with the current Aegon plan.

His Aegon may not be Aegon VI Targaryen. He could be a Targaryen from a cadet branch, a Targaryen-Blackfyre through the female Blackfyre line and the male Targaryen line (say, through Egg's mysterious third son). But if he is a fake I'd bet that he is neither Targaryen nor Blackfyre. Just Illyrio's son by a Lysene whore. That would be really fun, and a better twist than the fake-Targaryen-but-real-Blackfyre-idea.

It's quite likely that Varys himself is related to the Targaryen dynasty - either through a Blackfyre or a Targaryen line - as this would explain both his interest in Westeros and why he was unmanned. But if that's the case his endgame seems to be more about uniting the two dragon lines - if there any - than to avenge the Blackfyre cause.

The whole Aegon plan obviously was only cooked up during/shortly after the War of the Usurper. If Varys was in KL before the Rebellion to destabilize the Targaryen rule why did he and Illyrio not jump on the chance the war gave them? Why did the Golden Company not come over? Where was the original Blackfyre pretender during that time? Did Varys and Illyrio really intend to create the perfect king from scratch while Varys was doing his best to ruin the Targaryen dynasty? Would Aerys or Rhaegar really have ruled long enough for 'Aegon' (then most likely as a Blackfyre) to come over and save the day after a short civil war? I don't think so.

[Fire Eater]

I'm not convinced that Varys is about revenge. Nor do I think he would make it his life's work to put a member of House Blackfyre on the Iron Throne. This feel as cheap as it reads here. Especially since a Blackfyre loyalist would most likely want to install a Blackfyre pretender for all the world to see, so that everyone could see that the true king has returned. But that's not possible with the current Aegon plan.

I wouldn't call it cheap as everyone, including the reader, has been led to believe that the Blackfyres are an extinct threat. Revealing that the Blackfyres have been active threat since before the series began would be a good twist. As for Blackfyre loyalists, they think the line of House Blackfyre is dead, and now they just want to return home with their lands and titles restored. Also, how many lords in Westeros would rise for a Blackfyre in this current situation, especially if the said Blackfyre is the infant son of Lyseni bedwarmer and a Pentoshi cheesemonger? Blackfyre has pretty much held bad connotations with it in Westeros, a dirty household name so to speak; a name synonymous with chaos and usurpers.

His Aegon may not be Aegon VI Targaryen. He could be a Targaryen from a cadet branch, a Targaryen-Blackfyre through the female Blackfyre line and the male Targaryen line (say, through Egg's mysterious third son). But if he is a fake I'd bet that he is neither Targaryen nor Blackfyre. Just Illyrio's son by a Lysene whore. That would be really fun, and a better twist than the fake-Targaryen-but-real-Blackfyre-idea.

It's quite likely that Varys himself is related to the Targaryen dynasty - either through a Blackfyre or a Targaryen line - as this would explain both his interest in Westeros and why he was unmanned. But if that's the case his endgame seems to be more about uniting the two dragon lines - if there any - than to avenge the Blackfyre cause.

The sign of the black iron dragon made him wroth, so he cut down the post, hacked the sign to pieces, and cast them into the river. One of the dragon's heads washed up on the Quiet Isle many years later, though by that time it was red with rust."

The foreshadowing clues clearly point to Aegon as a black dragon or Blackfyre, not a Targaryen red dragon or Targaryen-Blackfyre. If Varys had initially intended to unite the two dragon lines, Illyrio wouldn't have married Dany off to Khal Drogo. If Egg's third son had a surviving lineage they wouldn't be anywhere near Essos as they likely would have been given a keep of their own. Also, Viserys and Dany wouldn't have been referred to as the last of their line.

The whole Aegon plan obviously was only cooked up during/shortly after the War of the Usurper. If Varys was in KL before the Rebellion to destabilize the Targaryen rule why did he and Illyrio not jump on the chance the war gave them? Why did the Golden Company not come over? Where was the original Blackfyre pretender during that time? Did Varys and Illyrio really intend to create the perfect king from scratch while Varys was doing his best to ruin the Targaryen dynasty? Would Aerys or Rhaegar really have ruled long enough for 'Aegon' (then most likely as a Blackfyre) to come over and save the day after a short civil war? I don't think so.

How do you think they could have succeeded with the GC against Robert's army or any of the other armies of Westeros? It would be a fool's errand. Neither of them would have changed sides to the Blackfyres. The remaining Blackfyre pretender at the time was still a babe, and as I stated above, few lords would side with the Blackfyres. Aerys and Rhaegar were expected to die, and then Aegon would pose as Rhaegar's son, the rightful Targaryen heir.

Ok I have a lingering doubt on this one. Was it ever proved in the text that Lady Rohanne actually did this? Because Sam Stoop's wife might just be causing silly rumours and rumours should not be used for foreshadowing in my opinion. :(

I never said she actually did it.Those were unfounded rumors, but I don't think there is any rule that says untrue rumors can't be foreshadowing for someone else as while it may not apply to Lady Webber who says it shouldn't apply to Varys?

If stories like Symeon Star-eyes and Galadhon of Morne, which are rumors themselves that can contain plenty of untruth, can be used as foreshadowing than rumors can as well.

[Mladen]

As usual, I learnt to go with a flow when your ideas are in question, my friend... Well done, OP

Now, the one thing I would slightly disagree is Varys' role in Sack of KL. I actually believed that he served Aerys right knowing or suspecting that the new King, who would have much broader support than Aerys would be much difficult to overthrow. So I actually believe that Varys wanted Targaryens to stay at power, or at least Aerys, who would weaken the kingdom enough for Blackfyres to take over. Remember the last attempt of repairing the damage failed because Varys told Aerys that Rhaegar was planning something. I actually think that Varys was the most loyal to Aerys, because he actually saw in Aerys weak link Blackfyres could win, something Rhaegar or Robert wouldn't provide...

edit: mistake in meaning

[Ser Leftwich]

As usual, I learnt not to go with a flow when your ideas are in question, my friend... Well done, OP

Now, the one thing I would slightly disagree is Varys' role in Sack of KL. I actually believed that he served Aerys right knowing or suspecting that the new King, who would have much broader support than Aerys would be much difficult to overthrow. So I actually believe that Varys wanted Targaryens to stay at power, or at least Aerys, who would weaken the kingdom enough for Blackfyres to take over. Remember the last attempt of repairing the damage failed because Varys told Aerys that Rhaegar was planning something. I actually think that Varys was the most loyal to Aerys, because he actually saw in Aerys weak link Blackfyres could win, something Rhaegar or Robert wouldn't provide...

Another possibility is that Varys was working an angle of placing fAegon in the crib to be raised in place of Aegon. If Rhaegar dies during the rebellion, Aegon would be the heir-presumptive.

If the rebels win, Varys goes with the plans as explained in the OP.

If the rebels lose, Varys hopes for a dead Rhaegar, and eventually a dead Elia, who is there to notice a baby change.

[Lord Varys]

This whole rusted dragon thing is the only clue possibly foreshadowing that Aegon is a Blackfyre. That he may be fake is an entirely different thing. Pretty much everyone considers this a likely possibility.

The revenge plot is cheap from Varys's POV, not from the author's or the reader's. Varys really seems to be about more than dynasty and petty revenge plots. At the core of the Aegon plan seems to lie a desperate bid for a long and stable peace, not so much a bid for power and revenge. But perhaps I'm biased.

Then there is the fact that a man with the talents and the patience of Varys could have really instilled a longing for the return of the true Blackfyre king more or less the same way he and Illyrio instilled the longing for the return of a Targaryen savior in the populace (we most likely all agree that Varys is the one behind the dragon puppet shows in AFfC, for instance).

If Varys did not want to ruin the Targaryen dynasty how would he want to install a Blackfyre pretender back then - or later, if there had been no War of the Usurper, and Aerys and then Rhaegar had continued to rule? He could not have presented a Blackfyre pretender as a Targaryen then, could he?

As to the 'Blackfyre loyalists', if Aegon is truly a fake I can see Varys and Illyrio deceiving and using the Golden Company the same way they deceive and use Jon Connington. They got Connington on board by pretending that Aegon is Rhaegar's son, they may have gotten Myles Toyne on board by telling him that he is in fact a Blackfyre (Toyne could have been a true Blackfyre loyalist who fought in the War of the Ninepenny Kings) - when Aegon in fact is just a no-name sellsword's son by a Lysene whore, and the whole enterprise just the hugest mummer's farce in the entire universe. This could also explain why Blackheart died so conveniently a few years ago. The less men know about Aegon's 'alleged true heritage' the better.

Harry Strickland is no threat to Varys's plan, and Lysono Maar is Varys's agent in the Golden Company in my opinion.

By the way, if Aegon is fake he is considerably younger than the real Aegon, and was most likely born after the real Aegon died. But then Varys and Illyrio apparently had no pretender at all during the Rebellion, and thus also no real reason to destabilize Aerys's rule just yet.

[RoamingRonin]

It's always forgotten that Aerys was going to set the city on fire if he did not win. Perhaps that's what Varys wanted.

[Mladen]

Another possibility is that Varys was working an angle of placing fAegon in the crib to be raised in place of Aegon. If Rhaegar dies during the rebellion, Aegon would be the heir-presumptive.

If the rebels win, Varys goes with the plans as explained in the OP.

If the rebels lose, Varys hopes for a dead Rhaegar, and eventually a dead Elia, who is there to notice a baby change.

I doubt Varys could have placed fAegon in the crib to be raised as real Aegon. Someone would recognize him... That would have never worked.

[Lord Varys]

If Aegon is no fake, it's very likely that the whole baby swap was just a precaution to protect Rhaegar's heir (possibly also the prince who was promised!) during any attack that might have made on KL. Varys had the means to get a baby with Valyrian features from Lys or Volantis in due time. He could have gone to Elia as late as during the Sack of King's Landing and offer her to exchange her son for a doppelgänger.

If the fake Aegon had been killed, the Aegon plan could be cooked up. If the impostor had been taken captive and the betrayal revealed, Aegon would have still be safe in Essos. The true king would have been out there, somewhere. The Aegon plan would have still been cooked up. If the fake Aegon had not been revealed and if he had been not been killed but raised as a hostage by Robert later on, Varys could have been arranged his death and cooked up the Aegon plan.

Varys had means and opportunity to change the babes. This whole thing is easily possible. And if I was Varys I'd have used the real boy. Only lie when you have to. The thing could work with a fake Aegon just as well, but if I had the chance to control the real boy I'd have jumped on that. Even if I was a secret Blackfyre loyalist.

[Ser Leftwich]

I doubt Varys could have placed fAegon in the crib to be raised as real Aegon. Someone would recognize him... That would have never worked.

I don't think so either, just coming up with possibilities. With a plan potentially 25+ years in the making, there are going to be contingencies.

[Lady Gwynhyfvar]

Nice OP.

I'd like to add that there are other Targ (or Targ-blooded) candidates as antecedents of Varys et al. Aerion Brightflame may have left bastards in Lys (http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Many_Questions/) I wouldn't be surprised if one of the trio is descended from him, or a union of Brightflame bastard and Blackfyre. I don't think that would have any impact on your overall argument either. It just could serve to make Varys' overall motivations a bit more nuanced.

One more thought, reading Lord Varys' post above as I was thinking about Brightflame, it occurs to me that a dragon puppet show was responsible for Aerion's exile in Lys. How very interesting then if his descendant from that time was back in Westeros fostering dragon puppet shows in favor of Targs to support his own agenda.

[Fire Eater]

This whole rusted dragon thing is the only clue possibly foreshadowing that Aegon is a Blackfyre. That he may be fake is an entirely different thing. Pretty much everyone considers this a likely possibility.

Actually no, it isn't the only clue. There are other clues as well, especially hints from TMK.

The prince [Daemon] had washed the black dye from his hair as well

In TMK, Daemon II Blackfyre dyed his hair, and washed it out when he publicly revealed himself just like Aegon has his hair died to hide silver-gold hair, and washes it off when he comes to Westeros.

Dameon II is supported by Lord Butterwell, whose wealth is noted to have come from milk, and is referred to as the "this lord of cows" while Aegon is supported by Illyrio, referred to repeatedly as a cheesemonger, or lord of cheese.

The revenge plot is cheap from Varys's POV, not from the author's or the reader's. Varys really seems to be about more than dynasty and petty revenge plots. At the core of the Aegon plan seems to lie a desperate bid for a long and stable peace, not so much a bid for power and revenge. But perhaps I'm biased.

Then it is a good thing Varys doesn't have a POV. If Varys wanted a long and stable peace, he wouldn't have worked to destabilize the Targaryen regime, or killed off Kevan, referring to him undoing Cersei's good work.

[Ser Knute]

I have to agree with Fire Eater on most counts here. If we remove the idea that Varys is a Blackfyre descendant, very little of his possible motivations make sense. Varys plays a very dangerous game and although I think he is somewhat safe, he has ways to escape if he 'feels' his ruse is being undone too much, he has ways to get information etc, but one thing he probably can't account for is say, Cersei just calling for a meeting and accusing him of treason and having (an Oakheart is serving as the King's Justice at present since Ser Illyn Payne is off with Jaime correct?) his head chopped ala Ned. If he simply is someone who is intent on using his skills he's acquired over his lifetime to try and establish a King and Court that puts the importance of smallfolk and their daily lives at a slightly higher level than they are now, that's quite noble but also seems a bit of a stretch. Then we must consider that there is nothing left to reveal about Varys other than the eventuality of the truth coming out. But we know already that Varys seems to be motivated by "the Realm" and having Rulers be less interested in being overlords but rather in raising the standard of living for all as well as the treatment of all people rather than that being a result simply due to or because of their surname.

Now that's not to say that it isn't possible. It surely is. However I think that kind of makes for boring reading on our part.

Varys as either a Blackfyre, a descendant of a Blackfyre, or in some way associated with a Blackfyre (perhaps the sorcerer that took his manhood was a Targaryen loyalist who was trying to do something for the Targaryens) such as perhaps Illyrio or Serra or even a bastard line, then it makes for interesting revelations as well as more depth to the plot we already are aware of with respect to him.

I feel strongly that there is more to Varys than him simply being a rags to riches kind of guy who is seeking to put someone from the same background on the throne. Sure it may work but the longevity is not there considering how long the plot has been in the planning and execution stages; he has very little assurance that even if successful that Aegon would/will keep the Throne for long. I think there has to be more to it, like unifying the Targaryen/Blackfyre line, or even avenging the Blackfyre loss in their rebellion so long ago. I think his motivations are a combination of personal issues as well as the notion of a greater good as the ultimate result of his work.

[Lost Melnibonean]

The one issue with the feagon as a BF I have is that he was raised as a targ, by a man who seemed to have more than a bromance with aegon's father. This would preclude any "restoration" of the BF line since everywhere that matters except for dorne, the line dies with the last male, who was run through by Barristan the Bold. ALso, I doubt that a man with as much focus and determination as JonCon would not recognize a fake. I mean, if he liked fapping to the image of Rhegar, his best friend, he would probably notice that a fake aegon looked nothing like Rhegar or Elia.

"Your father' s lands are beautiful, " he said. His silvery hair was blowing in the wind, and his eyes were a deep purple, darker than this boy's. --But JonCon wants to believe sooo much...

[Dinosoares]

@ser leftwich, thanks for clearing that up. I was just going to say, that was 39 yrs before the series starts and assuming he couldn't have been just born at that time and causing the tragedy of summerhall, he must at least be 55? Still doesn't add up.

And Illyrio could be the father of Aegon, I'm not one to say Varys is Aeg's dad but I'm sure that Varys is something of a blackfyre.

[Lord Varys]

Fire Eater,

some of your clues really do seem far-fetched. Why should Daemon's II disguised hair-color indicate anything about Aegon? Aegon still has blue hair, by the way. He did not wash it out yet.

Illyrio and Butterwell: Butterwell really made his wealth with cows and milk. Illyrio Mopatis did not. He is only jokingly referred to as a cheesemonger.

As to the inn sign: I still don't see what this is going to symbolize. Even if we assume that throwing the black dragon into the river is supposed to symbolize the Blackfyres going underground, what does it mean that the rusty dragon washes ashore on Quiet Isle? This is not exactly a prominent location/region. Even more importantly, pretty much everyone should realize that this 'red dragon' is in fact a black dragon which is rusted through. Wouldn't that indicate that pretty much everyone should or will see through 'Aegon' and realize who he really is? Does it mean he is going to fake his death to live in seclusion in a monastery?

I never got that one.

As to Varys:

It's obvious that he is destabilizing things. But the ultimate endgame is to create a lasting peace. The endgame of project Aegon seems to give Westeros another Jaehaerys I.

Varys is also really reluctant to take mortal action himself (or have people assassinated). Ser Kevan only had to die because he was a real threat to Aegon. Him 'undoing all the queen's good work' was making Tommen's administration the key obstacle to Aegon's invasion. That's why he had to go. Not because Ser Kevan could really hope to pacify the Realm. Varys is not about chaos. I really hope no one honestly believes that Kevan had any chance to deal with Aegon, Stannis, Euron, and eventually Daenerys. Not the speak about the Others!

Varys acted because due to the close proximity of the Stormlands Kevan and Mace would first turn against Aegon and the Golden Company. They could have defeated him before they themselves go down. That's what Varys wanted to prevent. And I think we can expect other radical moves from him in the near future. The days of all people who seem to be a danger to Aegon are numbered, Littlefinger and Jon Connington included. Yeah, I know that Connington apparently also has plans for Varys, but I really can't see him being a real threat to Varys. Connington use is at an end as soon as Aegon sits on the Iron Throne - or as soon as victory is near enough. Even more if anyone finds out that he has greyscale.

[Ser Leftwich]

As for the murder of Kevan by Varys, there is a theory that this was just a distraction/side-effect from the murder of Pycelle. In that Pycelle was present for Aegon's birth/youth and may be able to identify an imposter from birth marks or the like.

[Fire Eater]

As to Varys:

It's obvious that he is destabilizing things. But the ultimate endgame is to create a lasting peace.

It could be argued the same that Cersei, Stannis and Tywin also wanted to create a lasting peace.

Fire Eater,

some of your clues really do seem far-fetched. Why should Daemon's II disguised hair-color indicate anything about Aegon? Aegon still has blue hair, by the way. He did not wash it out yet.

Illyrio and Butterwell: Butterwell really made his wealth with cows and milk. Illyrio Mopatis did not. He is only jokingly referred to as a cheesemonger.

Cheese is a dairy product, made from milk. Since the dye was to help hide his supposed identity, it obviously is going to be washed out now that he is being publicly revealed. I advise looking at these threads before deciding what constitutes as foreshadowing:

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

GRRM can be very subtle with his foreshadowing.