Varys's History and Motives: The Black Dragon's Revenge

[Lady of Dragonstone]

I don't think Illyrio is a Blackfyre. Aegon is using the red dragon sigil to get Dornish support like Henry VII used the red dragon sigil to win the support of Wales, Dorne's political influence. If we follow the Henry VII parallel, Henry was the only child of a Beaufort mother, and House Beaufort was founded by a bastard of House Lancaster. Aegon was likely the only child of a Blackfyre mother, Serra, and House Blackfyre as we know was founded by Daemon Blackfyre, a bastard of House Targaryen.

Aegon being a Blackfyre is seriously the best explanation for his entire existance, and this is why.

Back to topic, I agree with Fire Eater in that Varys probably doesn't hate magic. I never really picked up on Illyrio's wordplay referring to Varys as a sorcerer, but I have a feeling that he was speaking literally and not figuratively.

- Varys's disguises go way beyond anything that seems capable for a man of medieval times. I understand that he has significant resources, but some of his disguises seem beyond explanation. The best possible explanations would be either using glamours, the Faceless Men technique, blood magic, or some other time of sorcery.

- Varys is not known to be truthful.

- Varys is from Essos, where practice of magic is more common.

- IF you are a subscriber to Varys being a Blackfyre, then it is not logical he also hates magic. He would then be of Valyrian "magical" blood. The Targaryens and Blackfyres, especially, were known to dabble in sorcery from time to time.

I really like the theory about Varys sacrificing his manhood for powers. It wold definitely fill in a lot of holes in my mind, and I would have never thought about it otherwise, although I was already about 75% sure I did not believe the explanation he gave at all.

With respect to Varys's motive for putting Aegon on the throne, I agree with the user Lord Varys that he is not fully motivated by revenge. I don't think he lies when he says he does want what is best for the realm, because I don't think he is a sociopath out for destruction. There has to be a second, more important, motivation to invest that much time and energy in one agenda, though. For someone as intelligent, well-connected, resourceful, and ambitious as Varys, "for the good of the realm" is just not good enough of a reason for me.

The best theory I've seen, and the one that is most believable, is that Varys is Serra's brother, Serra wife of Illyrio. It fits, it's clean, it gives all a motive. I think it is a little cheesy, but it does work, and the only real issue is the cheesiness factor of it all.

[Fire Eater]

The best theory I've seen, and the one that is most believable, is that Varys is Serra's brother, Serra wife of Illyrio. It fits, it's clean, it gives all a motive. I think it is a little cheesy, but it does work, and the only real issue is the cheesiness factor of it all.

Well of course it is cheesy, Illyrio is a cheesemonger after all.

I have said that it is more than revenge, but succeeding where his forebears failed. He will be putting his nephew on the IT, and finally accomplishing the task set long ago. I feel that Serra was Varys's twin sister.

[Muggle]

How come no mention that Varys keeps his head shaved cause he has silver white hair like the Targs :D

[Malcolm of House Tucker]

This thread looks at bits and pieces to find the truth behind Varys and his intentions.

When Maelys the Monstrous died upon the Stepstones, it was the end of the male line of House Blackfyre.

"The Lord Varys was born a slave in Lys, did you know?"

While Illyrio did state that the male line of House Blackfyre was extinct, he says nothing of the female line of House Blackfyre, through which Varys and his sister, Serra descend. Varys may state he is from Myr where he worked on a mummers's ship, but while he was sold to a mummers' ship from Myr, he was originally from Lys. Varys was later introduced to a sorcerer.

With a long hooked blade, he sliced me [Varys] root and stem, chanting all the while. I watched the him burn my manly parts on a brazier. The flames turned blue, and I heard a voice answer his call, though I did not understand the words they spoke.

Sam Stoop's wife says she [Lady Rohanne Webber] sold her babes unborn to the Lord of the Seven Hells, so he'd teach her his black arts.

This is Egg talking about Lady Webber, whose sigil is a spider. Varys is referred to as the Spider, and his castration was in a way, selling his babes unborn with the seven hells imagery tied to the burning brazier. Varys actually wasn't castrated by force but sold his manhood and ability to reproduce as the price to pay for him to learn the black arts of sorcery.

The sorcerer was likely Varys's mentor. His mentor might have been castrated as well to pay the price for his power, and if he was a eunuch, he had no children for him to pass down his knowledge so he needed to find an apprentice. The FM need to sacrifice everything to learn their arts according to the KM while Melisandre notes that her magic comes at high costs. The magic of greenseers comes at a cost, they must stay in a weirwood throne for the rest of their days, and likely give up hope of finding spouses and fathering children. The point being that the obtaining of magical power always comes at a cost.

The same might also be true for Valyrian wizards, the likely fire counterparts to the ice of greenseers, might have had to pay a similar price for their power. They had to sacrifice their ability to reproduce and their unborn generations to obtain such power. It is possible that like five dragons had survived the Doom, possibly a wizard also survived the Doom and passed his craft down through the generations from master to apprentice like the Sith in Star Wars since Darth Bane.

Later, Varys met Illyrio and grew rich from taking back from thieves to the owners for a price, and got into the business of espionage with his little birds.

Serra, I found her in a Lysene pillow house

a well-thumbed tome about the erotic adventures of a young slave girl in a Lysene pillow house, and the fourth and final volume of The Life of Triarch Belicho, a famous Volantene patriot whose unbroken succession of conquests and triumphs ended rather abruptly when he was eaten by giants.

He has the hair, but so do half the whores in Lys, if the tales are true. Rhaegar was a man. This is a sly boy, no more. Useful in his way, though.

This is Cersei thinking about Aurane Waters's resemblance to Rhaegar. Another person compared to Rhaegar is Aegon by Connington, and Aegon's mother may have been Serra. While Varys was sold to a mummers' troupe, Serra was sold to a pillow house. Varys then had Illyrio set aside his first wife for Serra out of plan they concocted.

The Plan and Implementation

The Blackfyres five times failed to bring down House Targaryen. The plan Varys came up with was a new method: instead of trying to take down House Targaryen from the outside, they should take it down from the inside, or working from the shadows. I think it is possible, and this may be a little crackpot, that Varys even had something to do with the tragedy of Summerhall as the only heirs of House Targaryen left afterward were Jaehaerys II as king who was weak and sickly, with his only son, Aerys, who was known to have a little madness. I think it is even possible Jaehaerys II was poisoned so his mad son would take the IT since he was described as weak and sickly and it would have come to no surprise if he died of a purported illness or in his sleep.

Varys made sure Aerys heard about his talents, and have Varys brought to KL. Varys added wildfire to the brazier in fueling Aerys's paranoia. When the rebellion finally came, Varys convinced Aerys to open the gates in a way that made it look he was telling Aerys otherwise, or in other words reverse psychology such as when Cersei tried to have Robert go into the melee by telling him no.

After the sack of KL, Illyrio had his and Serra's son, sent to Connington under the guise of the boy being Rhaegar's son. Meanwhile, the known remaining heirs to House Targaryen: Viserys and Daenerys, were to be dispatched so as to tie up any loose ends. Illyrio himself said that he didn't expect Dany to survive long among the Dothraki.

Very good post, I like a lot of your points. The only bewildering things for me are these:

1. Varys urging the Mad King to not open the gates for Tywin Lannister. True, he could have used reverse psychology on ol' Aerys, but he does seem to protect families as much as he hurts them (Tyrek Lannister, saving Gendry, trying to save Eddard Stark, saving Tyrion). Regardless of whether or not Varys is a Blackfyre supporter, this behavior makes me think that he would not want the entire Targaryen line wiped out immediately, and so perhaps he was trying to keep Rhaegar's children alive, if only for a while.

Also, at least in the TV show, the way they portrayed Robert's hit on Dany made me think that Varys was protecting her. By sending the boy to offer the royal pardon to Jorah, it effectively let Jorah know to keep an eye out, because shit was about to go down. But maybe that's just me reading too much into things.

2. The dragon eggs. I know Illyrio stated he did not expect Dany or her brother to last long, but his behavior is still mysterious. We know he offered to continue sheltering Viserys until Khal Drogo was ready to go to war, where presumeably he would have kept Viserys safe...for what purpose? And he gave 3 dragon eggs to Dany. Why??? We don't know if he expected them to hatch or not, but if he truly expected Dany to die, why would he throw such precious items away? Sure, he's already rich and probably doesn't need them, but even for a rich man, dragon eggs are probably the most valuable items a person can have.

In Qarth, Dany receives ships from Illyrio, who have come to bring her back to Pentos. Is this simply Blackfyre strategic revisions? "I thought she would die, but instead she hatched 3 effing dragons! Let's keep her close because she's basically just become a valueable weapon."

To conclude, I agree with you that Varys is either a Blackfyre heir or supporter, but his and Illyrio's behavior involving Dany and her brother leaves room to wonder. Are they simply trying to unite both lines through marriage or is their endgame something different? I give Martin mad props for creating this intense debate. Because as much textual evidence as he creates that gives weight to the Blackfyre theory, the way he writes it, those bits and pieces could just be a flock of red herrings and Varys and Illyrio could have been Targaryen supporters the entire time.

[Mladen]

To conclude, I agree with you that Varys is either a Blackfyre heir or supporter, but his and Illyrio's behavior involving Dany and her brother leaves room to wonder. Are they simply trying to unite both lines through marriage or is their endgame something different? I give Martin mad props for creating this intense debate. Because as much textual evidence as he creates that gives weight to the Blackfyre theory, the way he writes it, those bits and pieces could just be a flock of red herrings and Varys and Illyrio could have been Targaryen supporters the entire time.

I truly believe that he is not Targaryen supporter. Why? Because he basically destabilized Targaryen rule that rebellion was almost inevitable. People are constantly talking about him being loyal to Aerys. Well, being loyal to Aerys is not being loyal to Targaryen cause. Here are the reasons:

1. Although objectively we can't fully trust Barristan and Jaime, they maybe got the truth half-right about Varys. After Duskendale and Aerys' descend into paranoia, Varys has been feeding his paranoia, basically destabilizing the Targaryen reign. He was extremely successful, that Aerys literally trusted no one.

2. Now we come to Rhaegar. The brilliant prince who was supposed to become even greater King was finally doing something to correct his father's mistake. We know what Varys told Aerys about Rhaegar and the gathering of high lords (literally every Highlord was supposed to attend or have representative) in Harrenhal. By doing this, Varys prevented Rhaegar to act and save what could have been saved from Targaryen reign. By doing that, Varys maintained the weak, mad and paranoid Aerys who was causing dissatisfaction throughout the Kingdoms, which at the end resulted in Rebellion.

3. And lastly we have that advice about opening the gate. The logic here is extremely simple. Varys was saving the weak Aerys' reign because he knew Blackfyre cause might face the united and not divided Westeros. It is all quite clear. With Aerys remaining on the Throne, weak as he is, Blackfyre would be able to come and gain support from some of the highlords. But with the new King, who could unite Westeros in peace, and who would fight against all Targaryen claimants, well, situation would be much harder.

So, having all that in mind, I simply don't see Varys as Targaryen supporter, but as destabilizing factor in Aerys' reign.

[Mithras]

2. The dragon eggs. I know Illyrio stated he did not expect Dany or her brother to last long, but his behavior is still mysterious. We know he offered to continue sheltering Viserys until Khal Drogo was ready to go to war, where presumeably he would have kept Viserys safe...for what purpose? And he gave 3 dragon eggs to Dany. Why??? We don't know if he expected them to hatch or not, but if he truly expected Dany to die, why would he throw such precious items away? Sure, he's already rich and probably doesn't need them, but even for a rich man, dragon eggs are probably the most valuable items a person can have.

A rich man like Illyrio should give equally rich presents to a khal's wife. And we are talking about the Dothraki who can consider your gift as an insult if the gift is not rich enough. And to a bride like Dany, petrified dragon eggs seem like proper gifts.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Aegon being a Blackfyre is seriously the best explanation for his entire existance, and this is why.

Back to topic, I agree with Fire Eater in that Varys probably doesn't hate magic. I never really picked up on Illyrio's wordplay referring to Varys as a sorcerer, but I have a feeling that he was speaking literally and not figuratively.

- Varys's disguises go way beyond anything that seems capable for a man of medieval times. I understand that he has significant resources, but some of his disguises seem beyond explanation. The best possible explanations would be either using glamours, the Faceless Men technique, blood magic, or some other time of sorcery.

- Varys is not known to be truthful.

- Varys is from Essos, where practice of magic is more common.

- IF you are a subscriber to Varys being a Blackfyre, then it is not logical he also hates magic. He would then be of Valyrian "magical" blood. The Targaryens and Blackfyres, especially, were known to dabble in sorcery from time to time.

I really like the theory about Varys sacrificing his manhood for powers. It wold definitely fill in a lot of holes in my mind, and I would have never thought about it otherwise, although I was already about 75% sure I did not believe the explanation he gave at all.

With respect to Varys's motive for putting Aegon on the throne, I agree with the user Lord Varys that he is not fully motivated by revenge. I don't think he lies when he says he does want what is best for the realm, because I don't think he is a sociopath out for destruction. There has to be a second, more important, motivation to invest that much time and energy in one agenda, though. For someone as intelligent, well-connected, resourceful, and ambitious as Varys, "for the good of the realm" is just not good enough of a reason for me.

The best theory I've seen, and the one that is most believable, is that Varys is Serra's brother, Serra wife of Illyrio. It fits, it's clean, it gives all a motive. I think it is a little cheesy, but it does work, and the only real issue is the cheesiness factor of it all.

Why would a dude who's willing to trade his junk for magic powers give two shits about a nephew he barely knows?

[Lost Melnibonean]

How come no mention that Varys keeps his head shaved cause he has silver white hair like the Targs :D

That's where it started.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Very good post, I like a lot of your points. The only bewildering things for me are these:

1. Varys urging the Mad King to not open the gates for Tywin Lannister. True, he could have used reverse psychology on ol' Aerys, but he does seem to protect families as much as he hurts them (Tyrek Lannister, saving Gendry, trying to save Eddard Stark, saving Tyrion). Regardless of whether or not Varys is a Blackfyre supporter, this behavior makes me think that he would not want the entire Targaryen line wiped out immediately, and so perhaps he was trying to keep Rhaegar's children alive, if only for a while.

Varys presumably did not want Tywin to seize the throne.

Also, at least in the TV show, the way they portrayed Robert's hit on Dany made me think that Varys was protecting her. By sending the boy to offer the royal pardon to Jorah, it effectively let Jorah know to keep an eye out, because shit was about to go down. But maybe that's just me reading too much into things.

TV show doesn't count. It's akin to sanctioned fanfic.

2. The dragon eggs. I know Illyrio stated he did not expect Dany or her brother to last long, but his behavior is still mysterious. We know he offered to continue sheltering Viserys until Khal Drogo was ready to go to war, where presumeably he would have kept Viserys safe...for what purpose? And he gave 3 dragon eggs to Dany. Why??? We don't know if he expected them to hatch or not, but if he truly expected Dany to die, why would he throw such precious items away? Sure, he's already rich and probably doesn't need them, but even for a rich man, dragon eggs are probably the most valuable items a person can have.

Illyrio wants Viserys to stay in Pentos so the king can keep banging Lysene bedslaves and drinking Arbor gold until he gets to met his nephew. At that point Illyrio makes Viserys an offer he can't refuse: either vouch for Aegon VI and rule as Prince of Dragonstone with nominal command over 10 Dothraki, or take a long swim at the bottom of the Bay of Pentos with the fishes (cue Godfather theme song).

Oh, the dragon eggs may have been an exchange of gifts in the Dothraki fashion. Dont forget that Illyrio received a fortune in horses and slaves. I'm assuming the Khal could have taken those eggs if he wanted them as easily as he coild have passed Dany around among his bloodriders. Or perhaps he was giving Daenerys Targaryen a wedding gift befitting her station. The mpve was very visible after all.

In Qarth, Dany receives ships from Illyrio, who have come to bring her back to Pentos. Is this simply Blackfyre strategic revisions? "I thought she would die, but instead she hatched 3 effing dragons! Let's keep her close because she's basically just become a valueable weapon."

Something like that.

To conclude, I agree with you that Varys is either a Blackfyre heir or supporter, but his and Illyrio's behavior involving Dany and her brother leaves room to wonder. Are they simply trying to unite both lines through marriage or is their endgame something different? I give Martin mad props for creating this intense debate. Because as much textual evidence as he creates that gives weight to the Blackfyre theory, the way he writes it, those bits and pieces could just be a flock of red herrings and Varys and Illyrio could have been Targaryen supporters the entire time.

[Rooseman]

Why else would Varys want to put a Blackfyre on the IT with all the years and work he has put into it if he is not one himself?

We don't even know that this is his endgame.

Varys is a guy known for making people believe that he's on their side, while he's actually using them as pawns in his game. That's what he has always done so far.

It's not a big stretch to assume, that he's playing Illyrio as well. To what end? I don't know, we're still in book 5 of 7. That fact especially makes me think, that there's something more to him than we know so far. We're still wondering what Littlefinger is all about, yet we supposedly know Varys' exact endgoal when there are still two more books to come? Can't help but think that there's a deeper layer hidden beneath...

Speculation: It might have something to do with sorcery. Take Varys at his word when he talks about his hate for magic or don't, I personally call BS. Especially AGoT has loads of foreshadowing connecting him to the dark arts, not only Illyrio calling him a sorcerer twice, but also Catelyn and Eddard both speculate that this guy must make use of some kind of darker powers. And they already know that he has a very good spy network. Taken together with Pycelle's comment about knowing things about Varys that would chill one's bones...

Anyway, you don't have to agree with any of my personal assessments about Varys. But just accepting Aegon being his endgame as a given, because he told us so - or even more, that because of this Serra must be his sister - as if we're talking about R+L=J here... That is too rash. Way too much has yet to happen in order to form a definite opinion of this guy. If it were Barristan Selmy, okay, but this is Varys we're talking about.

[Fire Eater]

In Qarth, Dany receives ships from Illyrio, who have come to bring her back to Pentos. Is this simply Blackfyre strategic revisions? "I thought she would die, but instead she hatched 3 effing dragons! Let's keep her close because she's basically just become a valueable weapon."

To conclude, I agree with you that Varys is either a Blackfyre heir or supporter, but his and Illyrio's behavior involving Dany and her brother leaves room to wonder. Are they simply trying to unite both lines through marriage or is their endgame something different? I give Martin mad props for creating this intense debate. Because as much textual evidence as he creates that gives weight to the Blackfyre theory, the way he writes it, those bits and pieces could just be a flock of red herrings and Varys and Illyrio could have been Targaryen supporters the entire time.

Dany was expendable until after she hatched her dragons. She went from expendable to a must have. Marrying her to Aegon had the double benefit of bringing dragons into the marriage, which were incredibly value for any aspiring Targaryen, and she was supposedly the last Targaryen, and her marrying Aegon would hedge their bets as any children Aegon had by Dany would still be the rightful heirs to the IT through their mother, and Aegon would be the rightful king by his marriage to Dany. Her dragons made her too big pass up, and they would have been the icing on the cake.

Anyway, you don't have to agree with any of my personal assessments about Varys. But just accepting Aegon being his endgame as a given, because he told us so - or even more, that because of this Serra must be his sister - as if we're talking about R+L=J here... That is too rash. Way too much has yet to happen in order to form a definite opinion of this guy. If it were Barristan Selmy, okay, but this is Varys we're talking about.

Aegon murdered Pycelle and Kevan to help Aegon, something we have never seen him do before. He also planted the Highgarden coin in his chambers to set Cersei apart from the Lannisters. I nowhere compared Serra being his sister to R+L=J, it was a theory I stated as much.

[Lord Varys]

We have way too little evidence to conclude without a doubt that Varys was actually trying to destabilize the Targaryen rule. That's a possibility, but the sources are actually very bad. It's Stannis (through Barristan Selmy), Selmy himself, and Jaime who give clues in that direction, and all of them are not exactly smart enough to be good judges of Varys's true character or motivation.

Selmy did not even figure out that Varys and Illyrio are working together, or that Varys was the one who motivated him forsake King Joffrey (and who most certainly arranged his eventual passage to Pentos).

The best 'evidence' for Varys trying to cause a rift between Aerys and Rhaegar is that he apparently convinced the former to attend the Tourney at Harrenhal. But that could actually have been his attempt to heal the rift between father and son rather than to cause it. Rhaegar was contemplating a coup/a rebellion against his father before that tourney, and afterwards he let those plans go. Rhaegar would have not been able to get rid of his father without a war. The Kingsguard was to old-fashioned for that, and there would have been plenty of lords sticking to the old man because he was the legal king (and because they hoped to get royal favors). Supporting the rebellion of a son against his father would have also been a very bad precedent in a feudal society like Westeros. It would have limited the absolute power a Lord Father had over his children and younger siblings. And I'm quite sure none of these guys would have wanted that.

The biggest problem I have with the Blackfyre theory is that Varys and Illyrio apparently had no plan to take over the Realm during Robert's Rebellion. I can't see Varys fueling Aerys's paranoia to plunge the Realm into a civil war but not having a pretender ready to make his bid for the Iron Throne during that chaos. Back then Varys was in exactly the same position he is later during the reigns of Kings Robert, Joffrey, and Tommen. He was an enemy agent in an high position in the administration of these kings. Yet neither he nor Illyrio apparently tried to make a move during the War of the Usurper.

And don't tell me that he they could not dare doing this because Robert was too strong. This doesn't make any sense. Robert was no real threat to Aerys's reign in the beginning of the Rebellion. It was Aerys's administration (Owen Merryweather, the Hand, is blamed) who let this thing get out of control. Why did Varys and Illyrio not get the Golden Company to invade back then? If Varys's machinations were a driving force behind Aerys's paranoia, if we assume that Varys was a deciding factor to cause Robert's Rebellion (say, by suggesting that Lord Rickard Stark should be executed, and after him Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon as well), then it makes very little that there was apparently no plan in effect to capitalize the civil war in Westeros for the Blackfyre cause.

The whole Aegon plan now is a decade-spanning plot that (apparently) totally hinges on the fact that the real Aegon (if he is fake) was killed in a fashion that made it impossible to identify his corpse without a doubt. That means that Varys's present 'Blackfyre restoration plan' was only made after Robert Baratheon had taken the Iron Throne.

Varys himself could never take the Iron Throne. Illyrio is most likely no Blackfyre, nor would anyone in Westeros (or in the Golden Company) fight for a woman, especially if she was a former whore (assuming that Serra was a real Blackfyre).

I really don't see what Varys's end game could have been in Westeros before the Rebellion. Ruining the Targaryen dynasty does seem to be a very bad motive, especially for a subtle guy like Varys.

[Rooseman]

Aegon murdered Pycelle and Kevan to help Aegon, something we have never seen him do before. He also planted the Highgarden coin in his chambers to set Cersei apart from the Lannisters. I nowhere compared Serra being his sister to R+L=J, it was a theory I stated as much.

Then I mistook your meaning, when you wrote "[...] House Blackfyre, through which Varys and his sister, Serra descend." To me, this looked as if you took this theory for being all but confirmed.

[Lost Melnibonean]

We have way too little evidence to conclude without a doubt that Varys was actually trying to destabilize the Targaryen rule. That's a possibility, but the sources are actually very bad. It's Stannis (through Barristan Selmy), Selmy himself, and Jaime who give clues in that direction, and all of them are not exactly smart enough to be good judges of Varys's true character or motivation.

It's literature so we have to consider what we're given in context. Some things are to be believed & somethings aren't.

Selmy did not even figure out that Varys and Illyrio are working together, or that Varys was the one who motivated him forsake King Joffrey (and who most certainly arranged his eventual passage to Pentos).

Barristan didn't foresake Joffrey. Joffrey forsaked Barristan. Where is the evidence that Varys arranged Barristan's passage to Pentos?

The best 'evidence' for Varys trying to cause a rift between Aerys and Rhaegar is that he apparently convinced the former to attend the Tourney at Harrenhal. But that could actually have been his attempt to heal the rift between father and son rather than to cause it. Rhaegar was contemplating a coup/a rebellion against his father before that tourney, and afterwards he let those plans go. Rhaegar would have not been able to get rid of his father without a war. The Kingsguard was to old-fashioned for that, and there would have been plenty of lords sticking to the old man because he was the legal king (and because they hoped to get royal favors). Supporting the rebellion of a son against his father would have also been a very bad precedent in a feudal society like Westeros. It would have limited the absolute power a Lord Father had over his children and younger siblings. And I'm quite sure none of these guys would have wanted that.

Interesting. I'm not buying it but you make a good argument.

The biggest problem I have with the Blackfyre theory is that Varys and Illyrio apparently had no plan to take over the Realm during Robert's Rebellion. I can't see Varys fueling Aerys's paranoia to plunge the Realm into a civil war but not having a pretender ready to make his bid for the Iron Throne during that chaos. Back then Varys was in exactly the same position he is later during the reigns of Kings Robert, Joffrey, and Tommen. He was an enemy agent in an high position in the administration of these kings. Yet neither he nor Illyrio apparently tried to make a move during the War of the Usurper.

We don't know that. If Aerys had listened to Varys the Arryn/Tully/Stark alliance would not have seized the throne as quickly as it did. Lannister might still have been turned. And Martel and and Tyrell were still backing the Targaryens. They might even have induced the Greyjoys into raiding the North and the Riverlands. A few more years of destabilzation and Illyrio might have had an opportunity for success. But Robert seized the throne and struck an alliance with the Lannisters. Tyrell and Martel were done.

And don't tell me that he they could not dare doing this because Robert was too strong. This doesn't make any sense. Robert was no real threat to Aerys's reign in the beginning of the Rebellion. It was Aerys's administration (Owen Merryweather, the Hand, is blamed) who let this thing get out of control. Why did Varys and Illyrio not get the Golden Company to invade back then? If Varys's machinations were a driving force behind Aerys's paranoia, if we assume that Varys was a deciding factor to cause Robert's Rebellion (say, by suggesting that Lord Rickard Stark should be executed, and after him Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon as well), then it makes very little that there was apparently no plan in effect to capitalize the civil war in Westeros for the Blackfyre cause.

The whole Aegon plan now is a decade-spanning plot that (apparently) totally hinges on the fact that the real Aegon (if he is fake) was killed in a fashion that made it impossible to identify his corpse without a doubt. That means that Varys's present 'Blackfyre restoration plan' was only made after Robert Baratheon had taken the Iron Throne.

Does it make more swnse if you accept that the plan was hatched after Illyrio's Aegon was born, about a year after RR?

Varys himself could never take the Iron Throne. Illyrio is most likely no Blackfyre, nor would anyone in Westeros (or in the Golden Company) fight for a woman, especially if she was a former whore (assuming that Serra was a real Blackfyre).

I really don't see what Varys's end game could have been in Westeros before the Rebellion. Ruining the Targaryen dynasty does seem to be a very bad motive, especially for a subtle guy like Varys.

[Mithras]

The biggest problem I have with the Blackfyre theory is that Varys and Illyrio apparently had no plan to take over the Realm during Robert's Rebellion. I can't see Varys fueling Aerys's paranoia to plunge the Realm into a civil war but not having a pretender ready to make his bid for the Iron Throne during that chaos. Back then Varys was in exactly the same position he is later during the reigns of Kings Robert, Joffrey, and Tommen. He was an enemy agent in an high position in the administration of these kings. Yet neither he nor Illyrio apparently tried to make a move during the War of the Usurper.

And don't tell me that he they could not dare doing this because Robert was too strong. This doesn't make any sense. Robert was no real threat to Aerys's reign in the beginning of the Rebellion. It was Aerys's administration (Owen Merryweather, the Hand, is blamed) who let this thing get out of control. Why did Varys and Illyrio not get the Golden Company to invade back then? If Varys's machinations were a driving force behind Aerys's paranoia, if we assume that Varys was a deciding factor to cause Robert's Rebellion (say, by suggesting that Lord Rickard Stark should be executed, and after him Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon as well), then it makes very little that there was apparently no plan in effect to capitalize the civil war in Westeros for the Blackfyre cause.

The whole Aegon plan now is a decade-spanning plot that (apparently) totally hinges on the fact that the real Aegon (if he is fake) was killed in a fashion that made it impossible to identify his corpse without a doubt. That means that Varys's present 'Blackfyre restoration plan' was only made after Robert Baratheon had taken the Iron Throne.

Varys himself could never take the Iron Throne. Illyrio is most likely no Blackfyre, nor would anyone in Westeros (or in the Golden Company) fight for a woman, especially if she was a former whore (assuming that Serra was a real Blackfyre).

I really don't see what Varys's end game could have been in Westeros before the Rebellion. Ruining the Targaryen dynasty does seem to be a very bad motive, especially for a subtle guy like Varys.

I agree that Jaime and Barristan are not very reliable in such things but still I think your are underseeing some basics. One cannot seize IT with Golden Company even in such destabilized times like post-Wot5K. fAegon's campaign is doomed if he cannot obtain Dornish spears, Stormlords and powerful Tyrell bannermen. And at the end of the Rebellion, Robert's army was invincible.

Another very important point is that Robert's rebellion was no way near bloody as the Wot5K. The realm didnot suffer significant losses and a winter expected to be long. The main problem of Blackfyres is that they will always be pretenders and usurpers coming from an alien land. As long as people have a Westerosi overlord with enough army, they cannot kneel to fAegon. And post-RR was not like this whereas the point when fAegon lands on Westeros is the most suitable time for him. With some quick victories (like Robert at the beginning of his campaign) fAegon's campaign will prevail and people will flock to him while his opponents divide and fall one by one.

This is Varys' endgame. Note that Varys is a mummer most of all. His PR campaign will be very effective.

If neither priest nor septon was on hand, one of the whores would run to the Ship and fetch back a mummer. Merry always claimed the mummers made much better priests than priests, especially Myrmello.

Aerys was mad but if he could assign able hands and council members to do the job, Robert could not have been succesful. I smell a lot of Varys with all those Aerys's political fuckups.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I agree that Jaime and Barristan are not very reliable in such things but still I think your are underseeing some basics. One cannot seize IT with Golden Company even in such destabilized times like post-Wot5K. fAegon's campaign is doomed if he cannot obtain Dornish spears, Stormlords and powerful Tyrell bannermen. And at the end of the Rebellion, Robert's army was invincible.

True. And Bittersteel's inability to conquer in at least three tries and Maelys' s failure would have been well noted too.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Was it Illyrio talking to Tyrion in ADWD... gosh, I wish I had better memory, but he says something like "red or black, a dragon is still a dragon". I always thought that sounded a bit fishy, and when I read about the Blackfyre rebellion, it did give me some "fake Aegon is Blackfyre so what" -vibes...

I think it can also be taken as "No matter that there are no black dragons (Blackfyre's) left anymore. There still are red dragons (Targaryens). It's better than nothing, there are no black dragons left to take them home."

[Fire Eater]

The biggest problem I have with the Blackfyre theory is that Varys and Illyrio apparently had no plan to take over the Realm during Robert's Rebellion. I can't see Varys fueling Aerys's paranoia to plunge the Realm into a civil war but not having a pretender ready to make his bid for the Iron Throne during that chaos. Back then Varys was in exactly the same position he is later during the reigns of Kings Robert, Joffrey, and Tommen. He was an enemy agent in an high position in the administration of these kings. Yet neither he nor Illyrio apparently tried to make a move during the War of the Usurper.

And don't tell me that he they could not dare doing this because Robert was too strong. This doesn't make any sense. Robert was no real threat to Aerys's reign in the beginning of the Rebellion. It was Aerys's administration (Owen Merryweather, the Hand, is blamed) who let this thing get out of control. Why did Varys and Illyrio not get the Golden Company to invade back then? If Varys's machinations were a driving force behind Aerys's paranoia, if we assume that Varys was a deciding factor to cause Robert's Rebellion (say, by suggesting that Lord Rickard Stark should be executed, and after him Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon as well), then it makes very little that there was apparently no plan in effect to capitalize the civil war in Westeros for the Blackfyre cause.

That would be very risky, to the point of foolishness, to have the GC invade to place the Blackfyres on the IT in RR with little chance of support. It would be the GC fighting against two larger foes: the Stark/Tully/Arryn/Baratheon alliance on one side and Targaryen/Martell/Tyrell on the other. They needed to wait for Aegon to grow up, and then come back to Westeros during a time of civil war. Men would be more likely to fight for a young man than an infant. Plans take a little thing called patience to come to fruition.

The whole Aegon plan now is a decade-spanning plot that (apparently) totally hinges on the fact that the real Aegon (if he is fake) was killed in a fashion that made it impossible to identify his corpse without a doubt. That means that Varys's present 'Blackfyre restoration plan' was only made after Robert Baratheon had taken the Iron Throne.

Varys himself could never take the Iron Throne. Illyrio is most likely no Blackfyre, nor would anyone in Westeros (or in the Golden Company) fight for a woman, especially if she was a former whore (assuming that Serra was a real Blackfyre).

I really don't see what Varys's end game could have been in Westeros before the Rebellion. Ruining the Targaryen dynasty does seem to be a very bad motive, especially for a subtle guy like Varys.

Except if your motive is that you want to put a Blackfyre on the IT, then the Targaryens need to go. They need to be overthrown, which was the goal of the Blackfyres since Daemon. Varys would (and did) accomplish one of the first objectives of the Blackfyres. Illyrio could have made sure to impregnate Serra when he learned of the birth of Rhaegar's son, Aegon. Aegon was was an infant at the time he was killed, and no one could know what he would have looked like when he grew up excluding the Targaryen features.

[Iona]

I think it can also be taken as "No matter that there are no black dragons (Blackfyre's) left anymore. There still are red dragons (Targaryens). It's better than nothing, there are no black dragons left to take them home."

Yeah, it's like me in front of the freezer today: "I wanted cookie dough ice cream but all I have is strawberry cheesecake... I'll still eat it."

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Yeah, it's like me in front of the freezer today: "I wanted cookie dough ice cream but all I have is strawberry cheesecake... I'll still eat it."

It happens to me at times :)

But all the GC wants now is to go home. All those who wanted to seat a Blackfyre on the throne are gone. Going home is all that they want. And a red dragon will suffice for that I guess.

If we want to start hinting that Varys might know a few magic tricks himself, I would grab this quote from Pycelle and try to stay afloat with it for a while. ;)

"There are things I might tell you of that eunuch that would chill your blood..."

I would really like to know what Pycelle meant by this!

Interesting! I had completely forgotten about that. Right now, I really hope that someone will find secret documents written by Pycelle which will tell us more about this.. You know, since Pycelle himself no longer can..