If only Arya had put a hit on Tywin.

[Kaibaman]

I’ve been rereading ACOK and I’m at the point in Arya’s POV where she gets three complementary hits from Jaqen. Now I realize that at this point Arya hasn’t met Tywin and doesn't consider his culpability for her and other people’s suffering in Harrenhal. But after reading this chapter again with the benefit of hindsight, I realize that had Arya simply whacked Tywin at Harrenhal when she had the chance, the course of the war would have changed completely. Robb would have survived, he and the Starks wouldn't have had such a grave reversal of fortunes and Arya would have been united with her family at some point down the road.

I’m not holding this against Arya but I can’t shake the feeling that this was such a wasted opportunity. Had Arya just asked Jaqen to assassinate Tywin, things would have turned out so much better. For one thing without their commander and chief, the Lannister army would have fallen to pieces. Without Tywin directing things, no one would be able to respond quickly to Robb’s attack in the Westerlands or brokered the Tyrell alliance to save King’s Landing from Stannis. Thus King’s Landing would have fallen and the Lannisters completely destroyed. Robb would have cut a deal with Stannis and then gone home victorious, he would have gone home a lot richer and taken care of the Ironborn. I’m sure Robb would have still broke his marriage pact with the Freys but without Tywin’s scheming, there would be no Red Wedding or backstabbing from treacherous bannermen. And at some point Arya would have reunited with Robb and Cat and picked up the pieces of her life from there. And all this would of happened if Arya had used one of her death wishes on Tywin.

[Mikkel]

That's assuming Jaqen would have executed (pun intended) Arya's wish immediately, which he himself stipulates is not a guarantee - he'll do it as and when it's possible to do so. Given that Arya ends up using all her wishes on people right in the vicinity, he delivers quickly enough, but then none of the targets are exactly high profile.

Anyway, it's a fascinating enough what-if, but like you realized yourself, we'd be reading completely different books in that case.

[Kaibaman]

That's assuming Jaqen would have executed (pun intended) Arya's wish immediately, which he himself stipulates is not a guarantee - he'll do it as and when it's possible to do so. Given that Arya ends up using all her wishes on people right in the vicinity, he delivers quickly enough, but then none of the targets are exactly high profile.

Anyway, it's a fascinating enough what-if, but like you realized yourself, we'd be reading completely different books in that case.

Yeah I realize Jaqen's skills have some constraints especially in terms of distance, otherwise I'm sure the first person on Arya's hit list would have been Joffrey. But even though Tywin wasn't near them, killing him was still quite feasible. As a guy who's an expert at stealth and poisons and could change his appearance at will, I'm sure he would have found some way to take him out. In the show it didn't seem too challenging as Jaqen was able to go up to Tywin's door and kill Amory Lorch with a poisoned dart.

[Ramsay Gimp]

But hsvebt you heard.? Tywin was just a lucky chump who accomplished nothing real in his life

[Daena the Defiant]

Ya know, I was initially aghast at the title of this thread because I read it as "If only Arya had hit on Tywin" She's only a child!

Then I read it again..... oopsie.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

I’ve been rereading ACOK and I’m at the point in Arya’s POV where she gets three complementary hits from Jaqen. Now I realize that at this point Arya hasn’t met Tywin and doesn't consider his culpability for her and other people’s suffering in Harrenhal. But after reading this chapter again with the benefit of hindsight, I realize that had Arya simply whacked Tywin at Harrenhal when she had the chance, the course of the war would have changed completely. Robb would have survived, he and the Starks wouldn't have had such a grave reversal of fortunes and Arya would have been united with her family at some point down the road.

None of these is guaranteed. Robb could have died in battle, Tyrion with the help of the Tyrells could still have won the Blackwater and meanwhile, Weese could have beaten Arya to death just for the lolz.

That's the problem with the what-ifs; nothing can guarantee that every other parameter will stay the same. Once you make the slightest of changes, everything else is affected, butterfly effect and all that.

[James Steller]

None of these is guaranteed. Robb could have died in battle, Tyrion with the help of the Tyrells could still have won the Blackwater and meanwhile, Weese could have beaten Arya to death just for the lolz.

That's the problem with the what-ifs; nothing can guarantee that every other parameter will stay the same. Once you make the slightest of changes, everything else is affected, butterfly effect and all that.

Yes, not everything is guaranteed but really, no matter how you cut it, the death of Tywin in ACoK makes for a much higher chance of a happy ending for the Stark and (legitimate) Baratheon causes.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

Yes, not everything is guaranteed but really, no matter how you cut it, the death of Tywin in ACoK makes for a much higher chance of a happy ending for the Stark and (legitimate) Baratheon causes.

It sure increases their side's odds for a war victory.

[Lion of the West]

I’ve been rereading ACOK and I’m at the point in Arya’s POV where she gets three complementary hits from Jaqen. Now I realize that at this point Arya hasn’t met Tywin and doesn't consider his culpability for her and other people’s suffering in Harrenhal. But after reading this chapter again with the benefit of hindsight, I realize that had Arya simply whacked Tywin at Harrenhal when she had the chance, the course of the war would have changed completely. Robb would have survived, he and the Starks wouldn't have had such a grave reversal of fortunes and Arya would have been united with her family at some point down the road.

I’m not holding this against Arya but I can’t shake the feeling that this was such a wasted opportunity. Had Arya just asked Jaqen to assassinate Tywin, things would have turned out so much better. For one thing without their commander and chief, the Lannister army would have fallen to pieces. Without Tywin directing things, no one would be able to respond quickly to Robb’s attack in the Westerlands or brokered the Tyrell alliance to save King’s Landing from Stannis. Thus King’s Landing would have fallen and the Lannisters completely destroyed. Robb would have cut a deal with Stannis and then gone home victorious, he would have gone home a lot richer and taken care of the Ironborn. I’m sure Robb would have still broke his marriage pact with the Freys but without Tywin’s scheming, there would be no Red Wedding or backstabbing from treacherous bannermen. And at some point Arya would have reunited with Robb and Cat and picked up the pieces of her life from there. And all this would of happened if Arya had used one of her death wishes on Tywin.

One problem is that even with Tywin dead this wouldn't have happened.

If Tywin died, Kevan would have assumed control over the Lannister host and we know he's no fool. Secondly Stannis would never agree to split HIS realm with some delusioned teenage separatist. So there's that. Kevan would have fought on and Stannis would never agree untill Robb bent the knee and took whatever punishment that Stannis would have seem fit for a rebel "king".

[SummerSphinx]

Poor kid. I think she aleady knows she could have picked better people.

As she grows older, I think these "what ifs" will haunt her terribly- if she'll let herself think about them.

What a terrible choice to give a child. He could have just arranged for her to escape by killing three guards or something at the right time.

[Kaibaman]

One problem is that even with Tywin dead this wouldn't have happened.

If Tywin died, Kevan would have assumed control over the Lannister host and we know he's no fool. Secondly Stannis would never agree to split HIS realm with some delusioned teenage separatist. So there's that. Kevan would have fought on and Stannis would never agree untill Robb bent the knee and took whatever punishment that Stannis would have seem fit for a rebel "king".

First of all Tywin was the Lannister's best general and politician. His death would have been a huge blow to their war effort, especially since at that point morale was already very low and they were in a very tight spot. Tywin's death would have demoralized his men even further which in turn would have decreased their prospects of winning. Now I'm pretty sure Kevan would have ended up filling his shoes like he did in Dance and while Kevan has proven to be pretty capable, he would have lacked his brother's cunning and ruthless nature. The was too decent to pull the Red Wedding. Also unlike Tywin, when Robb invades the Westerlands I think he would have battered himself against Edmure's forces trying to get to the Westerlands and wouldn't have turned his army back. It was after all Tywin getting word of a Tyrell alliance that prompted him to turn his army back and quickly make a deal with them, thus receiving their help. Kevan might not have done that and would have been focused on getting to the Westerlands to stop Robb's pillaging. And like the show I think he would have pulled the royal family out of the capital and let Stannis take King's Landing thus losing the Iron Throne.

Also I Stannis and Robb would have come to an understanding. Even if they didn't Stannis might have still take huge loses at the Blackwater thanks to Tyrion and wouldn't have been in a position to do anything about the North seceding.

[Mikkel]

As much as I want Stannis (one of my absolute favorites, for reasons I won't get into here) and Robb (another favorite) to have allied, I don't think I see it happening. Especially not pre-Blackwater Stannis.

At least not without Robb abandoning the title of King in the North, and that was not very likely (in fact, it's nearly a political impossibility).

At best, they could have come to some sort of tacit "let's deal with everyone else first" kind of agreement, but eventually, they would have been at odds - Stannis will not allow the North independence (if he has any say in the matter, and he will presume to have one until he is dead).

Things are less clear-cut now that the Young Wolf is dead, because whoever comes after him does not have to take up the mantle of Kingship, but can take whatever title they might be able to agree with Stannis on (assuming he ends up King, which is unlikely, but that's the scenario we're exploring).

[Minsc]

If Tywin died, Kevan would have assumed control over the Lannister host and we know he's no fool.

Only that isn't what would happen, instead the Lannister forces would be split between Tyrion, the new Lord of Casterly Rock, and Cersei, the Queen Regent, both individuals that don't get along at all. Thus, without daddy backing Tyrion as Acting Hand his position would be terminated and some lick spittle is named his replacement.

Causing a situation of increased chaos within King's Landing, all while many of the Western Lords of evaluating a situation where Tywin is dead, Jaime is captured, Stafford is dead, their homes are being raided, and Stannis is marching on KL which is likely going to led to a number of desertion and mutiny. Especially, seeing how they aren't going to fear/respect/whatever Tyrion, the Half-Man, or Kevan, who has never had a thought that Tywin didn't have first, as much as they did Tywin.

Moreover, with Cersei in charge of the Lannister efforts as Queen Regent any alliance with the Tyrells isn't likely to occur because Cersei is horrible and not that competent.

[DireWolfSpirit]

I remember having the same thoughts while

reading ( that Arya should make Tywin one of the picks).

Ultimately though it would have made for a completely

different storyline and most of us are invested in seeing where

GRRM is going next. So i'm content that we have a story that twists

unexpectedely. If Arya had made Tywin one of her picks, it wouldn't

have been nearly as intrigueing, imo.

[Pod The Impaler]

If only she'd had more strategic sense than a child less than 10 years old.

Well, she probably did, but still not enough to see it right away.

[Darksnider05]

In the show it would of made perfect sense in the books not so much. Tywin could of taken a year to kill or who knows how long.

Number one rule survive.

[Aderyn]

Yeah it wouldn't have been so simple. Who knows who long it would've taken Jaqen to kill Tywin? According to this timeline, there's roughly six months between Jaqen's first kill and the RW so chances are he wouldn't have had time to kill Tywin before that. So RW could have happened anyway. And even if Tywin had been killed before, I have a feeling the Freys and maybe the Boltons too would have thought of betraying Robb in some other way. Like some of you have already pointed out, what ifs are tricky because ultimately everything affects everything so there's no saying what would have happened.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Without Tywin directing things, no one would be able to respond quickly to Robb’s attack in the Westerlands or brokered the Tyrell alliance to save King’s Landing from Stannis.

Tywin had very little to do with the Tyrell alliance. The Tyrells didn't align themselves witht he crown to work with Tywin, they did it for the power and influence a Queen would get them. I'd imagine that Tywin out of the picture would actually be a boon for Tyrells and the Reach Lords as it removes the obvious Lannister leader and allows them a better chance to take control of Joffrey/Tommen and the Small Council.

Renly dies shortly after Jaqen arrives at Harrenhal so that would have happened regardless of who Arya picked.

The Ironborn have already invaded the North, so little will change from that scenario. Robb is still likely to marry when he hears the news of his brothers and the Freys and Roose are still likely to change sides. However with news of Tywins death Rickard might be less angry with the world.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Only that isn't what would happen, instead the Lannister forces would be split between Tyrion, the new Lord of Casterly Rock, and Cersei, the Queen Regent, both individuals that don't get along at all. Thus, without daddy backing Tyrion as Acting Hand his position would be terminated and some lick spittle is named his replacement.

Causing a situation of increased chaos within King's Landing, all while many of the Western Lords of evaluating a situation where Tywin is dead, Jaime is captured, Stafford is dead, their homes are being raided, and Stannis is marching on KL which is likely going to led to a number of desertion and mutiny. Especially, seeing how they aren't going to fear/respect/whatever Tyrion, the Half-Man, or Kevan, who has never had a thought that Tywin didn't have first, as much as they did Tywin.

Moreover, with Cersei in charge of the Lannister efforts as Queen Regent any alliance with the Tyrells isn't likely to occur because Cersei is horrible and not that competent.

She would have made Kevan Hand, who would not have made huge changes.

And I dont think the Tyrells give a shit about Cersei being horrible or incompetent. They care about the Crown and they seem to not want Stannis as King.

[Bandit Territory]

Anyway, it's a fascinating enough what-if, but like you realized yourself, we'd be reading completely different books in that case.

Correction, we wouldn't be reading books at all. If Arya had named Tywin it would not have worked for the purposes of the plot. It is perhaps a plothole that can be explained away because Arya is a child, but I've considered it a plothole nonetheless. Simple put, Arya didn't name Tywin becuase GRRM didn't want her to, he had bigger plans for Tywin's death. Plus, as GRRM said himself, right after he killed Ned he was sure Robb was going to die. He needed a way to do that. Killing Tywin then would not have furthered the plot along, and would have caused nothing but a headache for GRRM.