NFL Week 15: The Dark Horse Rises

[Sivin]

Old thread.

Absolutely. A win is a win and in the playoffs, anything can happen. We've seen it before...remember the Seahawks beating the Saints a few years ago?

An even better example is the Cardinals SB year. They went into the playoffs as the 9-7 winner of an atrocious NFC West (the other three teams combined to go 13-35). They had gotten thumped by 40 in New England and by 28 in Philly in December. They lost 4 of thier final 6 games, and actually hadn't beaten a non-divisional opponent since week 6! Nothing about this team said that they were going to be a tough out.

But then the playoffs started, and things got clicking. They were one improbable Harrison 100 yard fumble recovery td from winning the Super Bowl. That's why you really never know in the NFL. You just gotta make the tournament and hope the magic is there.

True stories. I expect we'll get bounced in the first round (though, whoever the #4 seed is we might have a chance against), but I'm more optimistic for this Colts team than I ever was for any Manning-led Colts in the post-season. I don't think Manning is a choke-artist, but I think that he carried way too much weight for a great team, and while Luck is carrying quite a bit of weight himself, the rest of the team has also started stepping up to help deliver the wins. This is exciting.

ETA: I jumped on this one because (no offense, Phillip) I hated the names of the last two.

[Mexal]

Old thread.

True stories. I expect we'll get bounced in the first round (though, whoever the #4 seed is we might have a chance against), but I'm more optimistic for this Colts team than I ever was for any Manning-led Colts in the post-season. I don't think Manning is a choke-artist, but I think that he carried way too much weight for a great team, and while Luck is carrying quite a bit of weight himself, the rest of the team has also started stepping up to help deliver the wins. This is exciting.

See, I'd have a lot more confidence in the Manning led Colts but I'd have hope for the Luck led Colts. Regardless of his turnover issues, the kid has a knack for making a big play. But that doesn't always happen and when he plays better teams, all those mistakes will lead to a loss...badly, like what happened when they faced the Pats.

I think confidence and hope are two completely different things and I get the feeling you're using them interchangeably when they're fairly different, especially as I'm having a hard time understanding how you could be confident in the Colts when you say you're likely to get bounced in the first.

[Sivin]

See, I'd have a lot more confidence in the Manning led Colts but I'd have hope for the Luck led Colts. Regardless of his turnover issues, the kid has a knack for making a big play. But that doesn't always happen and when he plays better teams, all those mistakes will lead to a loss...badly, like what happened when they faced the Pats.

I think confidence and hope are two completely different things and I get the feeling you're using them interchangeably when they're fairly different, especially as I'm having a hard time understanding how you could be confident in the Colts when you say you're likely to get bounced in the first.

Oh, I never said confident. I said optimistic. Optimistic is quite compatable with Hope. And I absolutely agree with everything you said there, except that I don't think I ever said I feel confident in Luck-Colts, I just feel optimistic.

[Mexal]

Oh, I never said confident. I said optimistic. Optimistic is quite compatable with Hope. And I absolutely agree with everything you said there, except that I don't think I ever said I feel confident in Luck-Colts, I just feel optimistic.

Sorry. I read confident for some stupid reason. Optimistic is perfect. I would be optimistic with Luck too. It's a new beginning.

[A Bong of Ice and Fire]

Man, I hope Captain Kirk isn't forced to start for the Skins against the Brown-stains. He looks good for a rookie, but we need RGIII in there. We have to win out to make the playoffs. Pump RGIII full of pain killers and send him out there.

[awesome possum]

Man, I hope Captain Kirk isn't forced to start for the Skins against the Brown-stains. He looks good for a rookie, but we need RGIII in there. We have to win out to make the playoffs. Pump RGIII full of pain killers and send him out there.

Chances are the Redskins will be competing for years with RGIII at the helm. Why risk long-term injury to your rookie franchise QB for short-term gain?

[BLU-RAY]

So, something i've been meaning to bring up for a couple of weeks.

Seattle is a very good team, and they're going to make the playoffs this year. I didn't pick playoff teams this year (I think), but I picked them to win the NFC West last year (before anyone knew about the 49ers).

Now, I don't know Richard Sherman, but I'm rooting for him, and so I hope he's right that he can win his appeal, though objectively that seems unlikely. BUT, from a realpolitik standpoint- anyone think that Pete Carroll made a brilliant move in having one guy challenge their suspension and the other guy not? Since they have Walter Thurmond, whom they at least think is the real deal, this basically ensures they have two good corners for the playoff run- and when Browner goes back and Sherman starts his presumed suspension, they'll have two good corners for the playoffs as well. Am I overthinking this?

[Maithanet]

Man, I hope Captain Kirk isn't forced to start for the Skins against the Brown-stains. He looks good for a rookie, but we need RGIII in there. We have to win out to make the playoffs. Pump RGIII full of pain killers and send him out there.

I think it is a virtual certainty that Griffin is going to play. How often in the NFL does a guy practice wednesday, thursday and friday and then not play? Almost never.

But I disagree with virtually everything you've said here. The problem isn't pain threshold, it is protecting himself, and it is pretty unlikely that Griffin will be able to protect himself just one week after a knee sprain. Risking the franchise for the Cleveland game is not something I support. In addition, we do not need to win out to make the playoffs. If we win out, we may not make the playoffs, and if we lose to Cleveland but win our divisional games we may make it still. You can say any game is a "must win" and yes, it would obviously be better to win, but I'd rather see what Cousins can do and have Griffin something like healthy for our trip to Philly.

[Mexal]

So, something i've been meaning to bring up for a couple of weeks.

Seattle is a very good team, and they're going to make the playoffs this year. I didn't pick playoff teams this year (I think), but I picked them to win the NFC West last year (before anyone knew about the 49ers).

Now, I don't know Richard Sherman, but I'm rooting for him, and so I hope he's right that he can win his appeal, though objectively that seems unlikely. BUT, from a realpolitik standpoint- anyone think that Pete Carroll made a brilliant move in having one guy challenge their suspension and the other guy not? Since they have Walter Thurmond, whom they at least think is the real deal, this basically ensures they have two good corners for the playoff run- and when Browner goes back and Sherman starts his presumed suspension, they'll have two good corners for the playoffs as well. Am I overthinking this?

Nope. I'm sure that's exactly what they did.

[Sivin]

So, something i've been meaning to bring up for a couple of weeks.

Seattle is a very good team, and they're going to make the playoffs this year. I didn't pick playoff teams this year (I think), but I picked them to win the NFC West last year (before anyone knew about the 49ers).

Now, I don't know Richard Sherman, but I'm rooting for him, and so I hope he's right that he can win his appeal, though objectively that seems unlikely. BUT, from a realpolitik standpoint- anyone think that Pete Carroll made a brilliant move in having one guy challenge their suspension and the other guy not? Since they have Walter Thurmond, whom they at least think is the real deal, this basically ensures they have two good corners for the playoff run- and when Browner goes back and Sherman starts his presumed suspension, they'll have two good corners for the playoffs as well. Am I overthinking this?

I also think it is a good move.

[Rhom]

I think it is a virtual certainty that Griffin is going to play. How often in the NFL does a guy practice wednesday, thursday and friday and then not play? Almost never.

Alex Smith's concussion says "Hi!"

He practiced the entire week leading up to the Bears game before getting the "No Go" from team docs on Sunday. And we all know how that turned out.

So what I'm saying is, "Ladies and Gentlemen! The starter for the rest of the season for the Washington Redskins... Kirk Cousins!!!!!!!"

:lol:

[Jaimeisnotazombie]

I think it is a virtual certainty that Griffin is going to play. How often in the NFL does a guy practice wednesday, thursday and friday and then not play? Almost never.

But I disagree with virtually everything you've said here. The problem isn't pain threshold, it is protecting himself, and it is pretty unlikely that Griffin will be able to protect himself just one week after a knee sprain. Risking the franchise for the Cleveland game is not something I support. In addition, we do not need to win out to make the playoffs. If we win out, we may not make the playoffs, and if we lose to Cleveland but win our divisional games we may make it still. You can say any game is a "must win" and yes, it would obviously be better to win, but I'd rather see what Cousins can do and have Griffin something like healthy for our trip to Philly.

Who ever QBs against the Browns, takes a beating. Our DL hits hard. If u want that thing to heal, u bench him. If not i would love to see Weeds out play RG3.

[Kalbear]

BUT, from a realpolitik standpoint- anyone think that Pete Carroll made a brilliant move in having one guy challenge their suspension and the other guy not?

This was mentioned on local radio that this was precisely what Pete Carroll did, after discussing it with the two guys. You'll also note that the one currently serving was more likely to lose, anyway.

[Independent George]

I'd call it game theory rather than realpolitik, but yes, that was a brilliant move by Carroll. (Realpolitik would be leaving USC just before the weight came down. Purely by coincidence, of course.)

[Mexal]

I'd call it game theory rather than realpolitik, but yes, that was a brilliant move by Carroll. (Realpolitik would be leaving USC just before the weight came down. Purely by coincidence, of course.)

I'm also going to give credit to their GM, John Schneider, as well. He's the one who builds/handles the roster after all.

[Independent George]

I'm also going to give credit to their GM, John Schneider, as well. He's the one who builds/handles the roster after all.

Of course, my favorite realpolitk roster move ever remains the Steve Hutchinson poison pill contract. That was friggin' awesome.

[Lightning Lord]

RE: Seattle corner suspensions...this is basically an admission of guilt for both guys, then? Given the monetary hit for being suspended for four games, there's no way either of them cedes an appeal unless he knows he's guilty. And how would a coach/GM convince a player otherwise, unless the player were for-sure guilty?

[Selyse's Moustache Rides]

The Colts have the mental toughness and discipline to win tight games, but they just don't have the talent to beat the elite teams.....yet. If they play Baltimore in the first round, they have an outside shot. No chance against the other three divisional winners.

[Bronn Stone]

RE: Seattle corner suspensions...this is basically an admission of guilt for both guys, then? Given the monetary hit for being suspended for four games, there's no way either of them cedes an appeal unless he knows he's guilty. And how would a coach/GM convince a player otherwise, unless the player were for-sure guilty?

It could simply be an expression of the belief that the system is fixed and that there is no justice to be had, whether purely innocent or extenuating circumstances. Though I don't see how it is an admission by the guy who is going to appeal - he was chosen to delay because his case was stronger. The NFLPA defintely has zero faith in the league disciplinary process.

[Howdyphillip]

RE: Seattle corner suspensions...this is basically an admission of guilt for both guys, then? Given the monetary hit for being suspended for four games, there's no way either of them cedes an appeal unless he knows he's guilty. And how would a coach/GM convince a player otherwise, unless the player were for-sure guilty?

I agree with Bronn here. The other factors that you have to look at is that the vast majority of players that fail the drug test are going to be suspended even after appeal. The choice of taking that in the regular season is by far preferable to a player going after a new contract.