I thought Lysa/Petyr sent the assassin after Bran?

[Anglo]

I may be misremembering something I read, or going off something in the TV show which may not then be true for the books, so sorry if this isn't at all true. But I thought Lysa and Littlefinger were the ones who sent the assassin after Bran to start the War of the Five Kings? Littlefinger would fuck up the realm so he can play his game and gain power, while Lysa sees the Lannisters paying for Jon Arryn's death and potentially threatening her and her son by having the Lannisters bleed in a war against the united power of Robb's armies.

The assassination attempt was made some time after Bran was pushed from the window, perhaps long enough for news to reach Petyr and then start to play his game. Remember that Lysa is extremely vulnerable during all of this, and she puts herself and her son first, against all reason. If Petyr convinced her that the assassination attempt would fail, or at the very least spur the North to go to war, she probably would have done it. She's exceedingly spiteful to Cat, after all. Maybe it wouldn't even take a great deal of convincing. Maybe Lysa doesn't like the idea of Cat having such a healthy family...

Littlefinger says himself that he lost his Valyrian steel dagger to Tyrion during a joust between Jaime Lannister and Loras Tyrell. But Tyrion would never bet against his brother. Jaime thinks that, at least. This means that Littlefinger used Tyrion as the scapegoat of the Lannisters, accusing him so that the Lannisters get dragged into a war. Seeing as Tywin and Cersei (the Lannisters with actual power) hate Tyrion, it would then be safe for Littlefinger to assume that his family either wouldn't believe Tyrion's protests of innocence, or wouldn't care, seeing an excuse to finally get rid of Tyrion.

So... how wrong am I?

[Lord Fauntleroy]

I'm fairly certain that Littlefinger was only behind the letter Cat receives from Lysa.

The dagger he pins on Tyrion just to stir the pot some more. I don't believe he knew who really was behind the attempt, Petyr just chose to take advantage of a situation. 

[Maxxine]

The logistics for Petyr to have sent the assasin just don't work imo. He would have to hear about it. I assume it would take at least a few days for KL to get the news. Then he would have to hire the assasin and the assasin would have to get to WF. I just don't think there's enough time for all that to happen between the fall and the assasination attempt. Plus it was a terribly planned attempt and had the assasin not been killed it would have been easy to trace back to LF. LF is smarter than that

[urielisko]

It is corroborated by Joffrey and Cersei that it was Joffrey - however Cersei provides strong hints rather than proof and Joffrey claims to be behind the dagger affair on his wedding day, so it stinks of LF's puppeteering. 

[aryagonnakill#2]

We know if was Joffrey because we are told from multiple sources, because LF could not have done such a thing, and because GRRM essentially told us so.

First point has been touched upon, 2nd has as well, the logistics simply don't work, and LF never had the dagger in the first place to give to anyone.

Last, GRRM told us pre ASOS that we would get our answer in ASOS where the Joffrey reveal comes.  It's the same as when he said we would meet a descendent of Dunk in AFFC, so we know Brienne is his descendent because she is the only person from AFFC we get a hint for, same with Joffrey back in ASOS.  Nothing presents LF as the culprit in that book.  Plus when Tyrion works something out we are meant to believe it.  

[Greywater-Watch]

Tyrion puzzles it out. When the wedding gifts are presented to Joffrey, and Tyrion proposes a dagger with a Valyrian blade and dragonbone hilt, Joffrey's reaction (he knows about such a dagger) is obvious. That is the last clue Tyrion needs, because before Hand he had excluded Cersei and Jaime based on discussion with them and that the clumsy method (hiring a stupid killer) was unfitting for both of them.

As to Littlefinger's role, Lord Fauntleroy summed it up precisely.

9 hours ago, Lord Fauntleroy said:

I'm fairly certain that Littlefinger was only behind the letter Cat receives from Lysa.

The dagger he pins on Tyrion just to stir the pot some more.

 

[Vaedys Targaryen]

I personally don't think it was Joffrey.

If he indeed did send the assassin, how did he get the dagger? Did Robert seriously bring a dagger of Valyrian steel with him to Winterfell? Why? Robert uses a warhammer, so it seems so unlike him to bring a dagger of Valyrian steel along on such a journey. What would it be used for?

I believe the clumsy assassin was given this fine blade to specifically point it to someone, so conflict could start.

And I believe it to be Varys;

Varys has a wide range of spies and if they were not at Winterfell already, they must've come with Robert's host. With a large party coming there, it of course took three months to get to Winterfell, but on horse, or ship or by simply one spy spreading the news to another, word can spread pretty fast from Winterfell to King's Landing and back.

 

It is not Robert's style to use a dagger, so bringing a dagger of such fine steel makes no sense, as I don't believe Joffrey would ever be allowed to use it. Hold it, believable. Actually use it, no.

 

Varys, although not working with Littlefinger, wants to stir up things between the Lannisters and everyone, and sending someone to kill, or attempt to kill, Bran with a fine dagger tht would pin on the Lannisters, does sound like something Varys would do.

[Schwarze Sonne]

I think someone said that asoiaf iOS app states that Joffrey really was the one who sent the catspaw to assassinate Bran. So Joffrey as the culprit is already confirmed. What a lame conclusion.

I was hoping it was Mance...

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

19 minutes ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

I personally don't think it was Joffrey.

If he indeed did send the assassin, how did he get the dagger? Did Robert seriously bring a dagger of Valyrian steel with him to Winterfell? Why? Robert uses a warhammer, so it seems so unlike him to bring a dagger of Valyrian steel along on such a journey. What would it be used for?

Bob brought with him the queen, and everything needed for the royal couple to travel in style, which means tons, literally, of flashy, expensive stuff. Tents, cloths, tableware, jewelry, weaponry, music instruments, and gods only know what else.

As for the hammer vs dagger debate - err... what? It's not a competition. And while a hammer might be an awesome melee weapon, Bob wouldn't cut his meat with a warhammer. Maybe if he got very drunk (and fun drunk, not depressed drunk, at that).

19 minutes ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

I believe the clumsy assassin was given this fine blade to specifically point it to someone, so conflict could start.

And I believe it to be Varys;

Varys has a wide range of spies and if they were not at Winterfell already, they must've come with Robert's host. With a large party coming there, it of course took three months to get to Winterfell, but on horse, or ship or by simply one spy spreading the news to another, word can spread pretty fast from Winterfell to King's Landing and back.

...and back - only with raven mail. That means using a Winterfell raven. That means going through Maester Luwin. That means nope.

19 minutes ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

It is not Robert's style to use a dagger, so bringing a dagger of such fine steel makes no sense, as I don't believe Joffrey would ever be allowed to use it. Hold it, believable. Actually use it, no.

"Sorry, my prince, you can't have this dagger, it's too dangerous."

"Mommeeeeee!"

"Shit... just take it. I'm sorry, OK? Please..."

Joffrey generally does not hear "no" very often.

19 minutes ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

Varys, although not working with Littlefinger, wants to stir up things between the Lannisters and everyone, and sending someone to kill, or attempt to kill, Bran with a fine dagger tht would pin on the Lannisters, does sound like something Varys would do.

As we know from his conversation with Illyrio in AGOT, things were unraveling too quickly for his liking. Nope. It seems Varys got no motive, no means and no opportunity, which makes him "not our guy".

Sadly, it was Joffrey. Sadly, because I was as underwhelmed by the solution as everybody else, but no point arguing against it.

[Goldhands]

Joffrey doesn't make much sense to me either, in ASOS he says that he knows Valyrian steel so he probably wouldn't be stupid enough to use it to kill Bran. He also doesn't really have a good motive other than "well it's Joffrey he's cruel and wants to impress his father".

However, we know that LF had an agent at Winterfell because someone had to place the box with Lysa's letter so Maester Luwin could find it. LF also has a very good motive for it and in ASOS he says something interesting about the Purple Wedding: he says that nobody will suspect him because he wasn't there. The same would be the case for the killing attempt on Bran, wouldn't it?

So I guess it's definetely possible that LF is behind it. I also want you to keep in mind that Tyrion already "figured out" that Cersei ordered Mandon Moore to kill him, but obviously it was LF in truth.

[Ser Scott Malkinson]

2 hours ago, Goldhands said:

Joffrey doesn't make much sense to me either, in ASOS he says that he knows Valyrian steel so he probably wouldn't be stupid enough to use it to kill Bran. He also doesn't really have a good motive other than "well it's Joffrey he's cruel and wants to impress his father".

However, we know that LF had an agent at Winterfell because someone had to place the box with Lysa's letter so Maester Luwin could find it. LF also has a very good motive for it and in ASOS he says something interesting about the Purple Wedding: he says that nobody will suspect him because he wasn't there. The same would be the case for the killing attempt on Bran, wouldn't it?

So I guess it's definetely possible that LF is behind it. I also want you to keep in mind that Tyrion already "figured out" that Cersei ordered Mandon Moore to kill him, but obviously it was LF in truth.

I would agree with you on Tyrion being wrong, if it weren't for the fact that Jaime also came to the conclusion that it must have been Joffrey.

In the case of Joffrey's wedding, there is also the difference that plans could be made in advance. But how would LF know in this case that Bran would've been crippled? And if the task was just to kill a Stark kid or something, why not go for Rickon? Nobody seems to be paying attention to him, while Cat notoriously never leaves Bran's room.

All the evidence points to Joffrey. His motive might be weak, but there isn't always a strong motive. Some people are just insane. We might as well say that someone else must have killed all those women Ramsay hunts, because what would Ramsay gain by doing that?

[sweetsunray]

2 hours ago, Goldhands said:

Joffrey doesn't make much sense to me either, in ASOS he says that he knows Valyrian steel so he probably wouldn't be stupid enough to use it to kill Bran.

1. Joffrey brags about knowing Valyrian Steel, saying it very smugly, but also trying to sound mysterious. When Tyrion describes the dagger, it's evident from his initial reaction (but checked in time) that Joffrey knows exactly which dagger Tyrion is talking about.
2. Joffrey is stupid and entitled - the perfect coctail for such a wreckless plan. We've been given ample evidence of that since the start of aGoT all the way until his death.

[Consigliere]

Martin stated in an interview a few months before ASoS was published that the issues of Jon Arryn's murder and Bran and the dagger would be resolved in the book, and it was. I guess some find it hard to accept that it was as simple as that and I suspect that a few more mysteries will turn out to be more straightforward than some envisioned.

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Re_Congratulations

[sweetsunray]

4 hours ago, Vaedys Targaryen said:

It is not Robert's style to use a dagger, so bringing a dagger of such fine steel makes no sense, as I don't believe Joffrey would ever be allowed to use it. Hold it, believable. Actually use it, no.

It is Robert's style ot use a dagger to hunt. Robert doesn't hunt with a warhammer, but a dagger.

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"The stink of death, don't think I can't smell it. Bastard did me good, eh? But I … I paid him back in kind, Ned." The king's smile was as terrible as his wound, his teeth red. "Drove a knife right through his eye. Ask them if I didn't. Ask them." (aGoT, XIII)

Since he went hunting often each chance he had on his way back south, he likely also did on his way up (Cersei's wheel cart can't go fast anyway), he would have had at the very least hunting knifes and daggers with him.

 

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When the guards had seen the armorer out, Tyrion clambered up onto a chair. "So . . . a sword for Joff, a sword for Jaime, and not even a dagger for the dwarf. Is that the way of it, Father?"

"The steel was sufficient for two blades, not three. If you have need of a dagger, take one from the armory. Robert left a hundred when he died. Gerion gave him a gilded dagger with an ivory grip and a sapphire pommel for a wedding gift, and half the envoys who came to court tried to curry favor by presenting His Grace with jewel-encrusted knives and silver inlay swords."

"No doubt. The only blade he ever used was the hunting knife he had from Jon Arryn, when he was a boy." Lord Tywin waved a hand, dismissing King Robert and all his knives. "What did you find at the riverfront?" (aSoS, Tyrion IV)

 

 

Many people gave Robert daggers as gift to get on his good side, exactly because he was known to love hunting, usually expensive ones. A VS steel dagger is an expensive appropriate gift to a king, but not too great a VS loss to the House of the giver either.

 

When Tyrion figured Joff out, we have this

 

 

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The prince's own dagger had a jeweled pommel and inlaid goldwork on the blade, Tyrion seemed to recall. At least Joff had not been stupid enough to use that. Instead he went poking among his father's weapons. Robert Baratheon was a man of careless generosity, and would have given his son any dagger he wanted . . . but Tyrion guessed that the boy had just taken it. Robert had come to Winterfell with a long tail of knights and retainers, a huge wheelhouse, and a baggage train. No doubt some diligent servant had made certain that the king's weapons went with him, in case he should desire any of them.

The blade Joff chose was nice and plain. No goldwork, no jewels in the hilt, no silver inlay on the blade. King Robert never wore it, had likely forgotten he owned it. Yet the Valyrian steel was deadly sharp . . . sharp enough to slice through skin, flesh, and muscle in one quick stroke. I am no stranger to Valyrian steel. But he had been, hadn't he? Else he would never have been so foolish as to pick Littlefinger's knife. (aSoS, Tyrion VIII)

 

 

LF didn't need to do anything, except claim the dagger was his once and he lost it in a bet to a Lannister. Maybe it even was his once, and he lost it in a bet to Robert, who very likely betted against Jaime Lannister on a tourney.

Jaime comes to the same conclusion and Cersei certainly does not negate it either. She just doesn't care that her son sent an assassin to another woman's son for a very poor reason.   

 

 

[LynnS]

If it was Joffrey that sent the assassin; then it would be spite after getting a smack down from Tyrion for not paying respects and displaying some official concern over Bran's fall.   I'm not sure how aSoS or Martin's statement resolves the matter.   I've always thought that burning down the library tower and the assassin's strange state of mindlessness was rather odd.  I think there might be other agencies that wanted Bran (future greenseer) killed or at least sent beyond the Wall at some point.  

Littlefinger is an opportunist seizing on the assassination attempt to redirect the weapon to further his own agenda without having anything to do with it in the first place.  He's taking advantage of the situation.

[sweetsunray]

4 minutes ago, LynnS said:

I've always thought that burning down the library tower and the assassin's strange state of mindlessness was rather odd. 

Starting a fire to have everyone's attention to the fire, and not on Bran, is not odd, and nearly succeeded in its purpose - solely Cat remained in Bran's room and Summer followed and knew the real danger. It certainly is not mindless. If you wish to create a big fearsome blaze, then a library is the most logical location.

The assassin is not in a mindless state, but simply surprised at finding someone else in the room. The catspaw was not a professional assassin. He speaks of it being a mercy. It's probably what he told himself - just kill a boy who's as good as dead anyway, and I'll be doing them a favor. But then Cat being there complicates matters, for now he has to kill her too, or otherwise he'll get caught. He cuts her breathing off, and he's certainly aware enough of his surroundings to hear Summer slip in.

The strangeness of the scene and its oddity has more to do with Cat's state of mind, than the catspaw.

[The Ned's Little Girl]

28 minutes ago, LynnS said:

If it was Joffrey that sent the assassin; then it would be spite after getting a smack down from Tyrion for not paying respects and displaying some official concern over Bran's fall.   I'm not sure how aSoS or Martin's statement resolves the matter.

IIRC, Cersei says that Joffrey overheard Robert saying that it would be kinder to put Bran out of his and his family's misery, since he was going to be crippled for his whole life. She thought Joffrey was trying to impress his "father" by doing it.

[sweetsunray]

9 minutes ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

IIRC, Cersei says that Joffrey overheard Robert saying that it would be kinder to put Bran out of his and his family's misery, since he was going to be crippled for his whole life. She thought Joffrey was trying to impress his "father" by doing it.

Just so...

 

Quote

 

"There was a dagger. The scars on Lady Catelyn's hands were real enough, she showed them to me. Did you . . . ?"

"Oh, don't be absurd." Cersei closed the window. "Yes, I hoped the boy would die. So did you. Even Robert thought that would have been for the best. 'We kill our horses when they break a leg, and our dogs when they go blind, but we are too weak to give the same mercy to crippled children,' he told me. He was blind himself at the time, from drink."

Robert? Jaime had guarded the king long enough to know that Robert Baratheon said things in his cups that he would have denied angrily the next day. "Were you alone when Robert said this?"

"You don't think he said it to Ned Stark, I hope? Of course we were alone. Us and the children." Cersei removed her hairnet and draped it over a bedpost, then shook out her golden curls. "Perhaps Myrcella sent this man with the dagger, do you think so?"

It was meant as mockery, but she'd cut right to the heart of it, Jaime saw at once. "Not Myrcella. Joffrey."

Cersei frowned. "Joffrey had no love for Robb Stark, but the younger boy was nothing to him. He was only a child himself."

"A child hungry for a pat on the head from that sot you let him believe was his father." He had an uncomfortable thought. "Tyrion almost died because of this bloody dagger. If he knew the whole thing was Joffrey's work, that might be why . . ." (aSoS, Jaime IX)

 

 

[LynnS]

9 minutes ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

IIRC, Cersei says that Joffrey overheard Robert saying that it would be kinder to put Bran out of his and his family's misery, since he was going to be crippled for his whole life. She thought Joffrey was trying to impress his "father" by doing it.

That does make some sense.  It's too bad, it would be more interesting if the Citadel and glass candles were involved.  Very tedious of the assassin to keep repeating 'nobody was supposed to be here' to himself.  I have my doubts about Joffrey being too concerned about what Robert thinks.  Cersei is making an assumption at this point.  But there it is.  

[OtherFromAnotherMother]

Disclaimer: I believe it was Joff. I do not believe it was LF. 

But I'm pretty sure that LF lost the dagger to Bob in a bet.

Quote

"Tyrion always backed me in the lists," Jaime said, "but that day Ser Loras unhorsed me. A mischance, I took the boy too lightly, but no matter. Whatever my brother wagered, he lost . . . but that dagger did change hands, I recall it now. Robert showed it to me that night at the feast. His Grace loved to salt my wounds, especially when drunk. And when was he not drunk?"

From this we know Bob won it from someone, but we don't know who.

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"I would have told you that there was only one knife like this at King's Landing." He grasped the blade between thumb and forefinger, drew it back over his shoulder, and threw it across the room with a practiced flick of his wrist. It struck the door and buried itself deep in the oak, quivering. "It's mine."

From this quote we can see that LF is probably familiar with the dagger. Admittedly, this is weak evidence. But it does show, at the very least, LF knows and is familiar with daggers in general.

Rewind to the Hand's tourney.

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“A hundred golden dragons on the Kingslayer,” Littlefinger announced loudly as Jaime Lannister entered the lists, riding an elegant blood bay destrier. The horse wore a blanket of gilded ringmail, and Jaime glittered from head to heel. Even his lance was fashioned from the golden wood of the Summer Isles.

“Done,” Lord Renly shouted back. “The Hound has a hungry look about him this morning.”

LF makes a bet with a Baratheon that Jaime will win. Jaime loses. LF loses a bet to a Baratheon because Jaime lost. 

GRRM is giving us something here. The dagger did go from LF to Robert because Jaime lost, just as 100 dragons goes from LF to Renly because Jaime loses.

All of this doesn't really matter. Joff stil stole the dagger from Robert. But I do think it was originally LF's.