Theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at CB

[Greywater-Watch]

On ‎24‎.‎12‎.‎2016 at 0:31 AM, Lord Varys said:

But in the case of Selyse, Mel, and Shireen things are very different. They are the inner circle of a traitor and outlaw who fought a campaign against the Iron Throne for over a year. They are basically criminals. And Jon effectively is a criminal, too, if he harbors them against the wishes of the king.

Stannis is an outlaw? Please provide proof. That would make Jon an outlaw too, no?

We have at least two claimants to the Iron Throne at the end of ADWD (Tommen, Stannis). Each calling the other one a pretender. Would Stannis call it treason if Jon would be harbouring Tommen at Castle Black? Stannis has good arguements to question Tommen's right to his title (and that is an Information not only accessible to the reader, but at this point of the story well known in the realm).

I disagree with your judgement of Jon's actions. Strictly speaking, following your argumentation, he would have to deny access to anyone to CB until the question of the rightful King is settled. Whatever Jon does, he moves on thin ice. But calling him a traitor or outlaw - no, I do not agree.

[House Beaudreau]

On 12/18/2016 at 8:15 AM, Greywater-Watch said:

Theory b: In fact close to Theory a, but Jon Snow (b1) or Melisandre (b2) wrote the Pink Letter (Jon to get a legitimation to go to Winterfell, Melisandre to gain Jon’s trust and make one of her prophecies finally come true). But this gun fires back (unintentionally) as it triggers off Bowen and Othell to react (see Theory a).

I think its pretty obvious that Mance Ryder wrote the Pink Letter. 

[Clegane'sPup]

On 12/22/2016 at 2:32 PM, Greywater-Watch said:

This is in fact my greatest worries when thinking in the direction of an extensive planning and even including the Pink Letter in the plot.

The person I mentioned got back to me and provided two links. If you wanna take a look

 

[rotting sea cow]

57 minutes ago, Clegane'sPup said:

The person I mentioned got back to me and provided two links. If you wanna take a look

 

Good posts! I forgot about Mully, Ghost's behavior is very telling indeed. So, we have Clydas and Mully pretty much in. Marsh probably needed more pressure. Where is Alliser?

BTW: I found the missing Slyint cronies. They were sent to garrison another castle along with some Stannis men and black brothers. Probably they are not involved in any of this.

Good that someone else though about a possible tampering of the Pink Letter, whoever wrote it originally.

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

What about Borros Baratheon receiving at the same time Prince Aemond Targaryen and Prince Lucerys Velaryon at Storm's End at the beginning of the Dance of the Dragons, granting guest rights to both of them?

That seems to be a different scenario. Lord Borros quickly threw Lucerys out of his castle, essentially declaring for Aegon II. What makes this thing pretty fucked up and confusing is that at this point it was completely unclear who the rightful king was.

6 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

Stannis is an outlaw? Please provide proof. That would make Jon an outlaw too, no?

Stannis and all his men have been attainted and dispossessed as traitors. That would make them outlaws, no? At least from the point of view of the Iron Throne. And from any realistic point of view Stannis' cause is lost. At least at the beginning of ADwD. Later on one can assume that Stannis' cause is no longer hopeless. Especially after he secured the support of the clansmen and came to an agreement with the Iron Bank (both mostly/only because of Jon's assistance).

But even with all that it is very unlikely to assume that Stannis could ever win the Iron Throne.

6 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

We have at least two claimants to the Iron Throne at the end of ADWD (Tommen, Stannis). Each calling the other one a pretender. Would Stannis call it treason if Jon would be harbouring Tommen at Castle Black? Stannis has good arguements to question Tommen's right to his title (and that is an Information not only accessible to the reader, but at this point of the story well known in the realm).

Stannis certainly would object to that but his opinion wouldn't really matter. His claims are unproven, and the number of his followers is a joke. He is about as much in Joffrey/Tommen's league as Marla Sunderland was in the Conqueror's.

6 hours ago, Greywater-Watch said:

I disagree with your judgement of Jon's actions. Strictly speaking, following your argumentation, he would have to deny access to anyone to CB until the question of the rightful King is settled. Whatever Jon does, he moves on thin ice. But calling him a traitor or outlaw - no, I do not agree.

If the wildlings and Others weren't threatening the Wall this would have been the wisest cause of action. Yet with Stannis actually coming to their help and defeating Mance the NW was effectively trapped. They asked all the kings in Westeros for help and now they (sort of) have to acknowledge the claim of the man who came to save them.

But taking his side in the wars within in the Seven Kingdoms (as Jon effectively did) is breaking the neutrality of the NW.

[Moiraine Sedai]

 

On 12/23/2016 at 6:31 PM, Lord Varys said:

We have to keep in mind that Jon's right to grant guest right to traitors should be, well, rather limited if Stannis was actually dead. The Iron Throne and its representatives have any right to demand that Selyse, Shireen, and Melisandre are handed over to them to face whatever punishment King Tommen has in mind for their treason.

Jon Snow insisting that Stannis' wife, child, and lover are his 'guests' is pretty close to treason, too.

The only other precedent I know where a 'traitor' was harbored as a 'guest' by a powerful man was when Prince Aegon and his sister-wife Rhaena were granted sanctuary at Casterly Rock after Maegor the Cruel had seized the Iron Throne. Yet Aegon and Rhaena weren't traitors by default and Prince Aegon - who was his father's eldest son and chosen heir - only challenged Maegor's claim to the Iron Throne a year later. While Aegon and Rhaena were just at Casterly Rock, doing nothing, they weren't actually traitors.

But in the case of Selyse, Mel, and Shireen things are very different. They are the inner circle of a traitor and outlaw who fought a campaign against the Iron Throne for over a year. They are basically criminals. And Jon effectively is a criminal, too, if he harbors them against the wishes of the king.

In addition, there is the problem that Jon actually sent Mance (a former watchman, turncloak, and notorious raider) to Winterfell to abduct Lady Arya Stark Bolton from her home and the protection and guidance of her lord husband. Roose and Ramsay have every reason to believe Mance acted on Jon's command and thus it is quite clear that Jon first interfered with their affairs, not the other way around.

And the NW is not above the law of the king. It continues to exist because the Iron Throne honors it as an institution and supports it by sending men and provisions to the Wall. The Watch is dependent on the Iron Throne, not the other way around. And thus it is essentially suicide for the Watch to support a pretender that is fighting against the Iron Throne and has pretty much no chance to win nor is it a particularly good idea to mess around with the major representative of the Crown in the North.

Ramsay is actually pretty merciful in his letter to Jon. He doesn't declare his life forfeit. He demands his wife back and also that Jon hands over Stannis' wife, lover, and daughter. In exchange he promises not to attack the NW. That is a pretty good deal considering that Jon actually supported Stannis and helped him win his war against the Boltons (for instance, he informed Stannis about the planned Karstark betrayal).

 

It was Jon's attempts to rescue fake Arya that started this whole disagreement with House Bolton.  Jon started that quarrel and Ramsay still gave him a way out.  It was Jon's choice and he made a really bad one when he chose to attack instead of complying with the request in the letter.

[kissdbyfire]

6 minutes ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

 

 

It was Jon's attempts to rescue fake Arya that started this whole disagreement with House Bolton.  Jon started that quarrel and Ramsay still gave him a way out.  It was Jon's choice and he made a really bad one when he chose to attack instead of complying with the request in the letter.

The enmity between Starks and Boltons is thousands of years old. And I'm not sure why you say Ramsay gave Jon a way out... And lastly, "complying with the request" is the last thing Jon should have done. After all, the letter had no request but a series of threats from a known psycho. 

[Moiraine Sedai]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

The enmity between Starks and Boltons is thousands of years old. And I'm not sure why you say Ramsay gave Jon a way out... And lastly, "complying with the request" is the last thing Jon should have done. After all, the letter had no request but a series of threats from a known psycho. 

The enmity is between the Boltons and the Starks.  It had nothing to do with the Nights Watch until Jon chose to involve the Nights Watch.  It was very wrong of Jon to do that.  The Starks should no longer be his concern. 

[Bowen Marsh]

On 12/18/2016 at 10:15 AM, Greywater-Watch said:

I wish to put forward three theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at Castle Black. I will propose them in a parallel way and deliberately stretch the interpretation of each detail to its extreme to fit in one of the theories. The truth may lie in between the three theories, but I prefer to think out of the box and go to extremes.

I will lead through the last Jon chapter in ADWD chronologically.

Theory a: The assassination was planned on short notice, from an impulse by Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwyck. The trigger point was the declaration of Jon’s decision to go to Winterfell, which Bowen and Othell regard as a break of the Night Watch’s vow not to interfere with politics in the Seven Kingdoms.

 

This is the one that makes sense.  Theory A.

*********************************

One week after the death of the Mad Lord Commander, Jon Snow.  Castle Black is getting reorganized, the Free Folk have left and taken up residence at the old Night Fort.  Bolton soldiers have taken away Selyse, Shireen, baby Craster, Val, and Melisandre.  Stannis Baratheon has been defeated.  Theon and Arya/Jeyne are back with Ramsay.  Tormund has agreed to take his Free Folk to the Night Fort and help defend the wall, in exchange for sparing the life of Wun the giant.  A hearing is taking place at the Shield Hall.  Cotter Pyke has been chosen to act as the temporary lord commander.  He sits on a high chair at the end of a long table, an enormous white direwolf pelt lies beneath his boots.  I, Lord Steward Bowen Marsh stand before him.

Pyke:  Lord Bolton sent the remainder of Lord Stannis' men to us.  Prisoners of war, Manderly's men, will be joining us soon.  Lord Roose gave them a choice:  serve the watch or lose their skin.  They will soon be fit for active duty.  See that they are properly integrated into the watch.

Me:  The Warden of the North is generous.

Clydas:  Lord Commander, we need an account of what took place that day.  The Citadel will need to update their records.  If you please, Lord Steward.

Pyke:  Well

Me:  I have served the watch loyally for many years, my lord.  Never have I disobeyed a command.  I obeyed Lord Commander Snow as best I could, though I had misgivings.  The day he revealed his treasons to us was a dark day indeed.  He misled us, sir.  He and that red woman.  They let Mance Rayder walk just so he could rescue a Stark girl of no consequence.  A man who by all the laws of the land should have been executed.  Then to send that man to Winterfell and make off with the Bolton bride, that was an act of war, sir.  Not since the Night's King has any previous commander committed such vile acts of treason.  To top it off, Lord Commander Snow recruited the wildlings who were meant to defend the wall to instead fight his private war with Lord Ramsay.  He told us his intentions to ride out and raid Winterfell, my lord.  I had no choice.  I had to stop him. 

Pyke:  You have done well, Lord Bowen.  I will see that you and your men receive commendations.

 

[The Fattest Leech]

On 12/18/2016 at 10:15 AM, Greywater-Watch said:

I wish to put forward three theories on the assassination of Jon Snow at Castle Black. I will propose them in a parallel way and deliberately stretch the interpretation of each detail to its extreme to fit in one of the theories. The truth may lie in between the three theories, but I prefer to think out of the box and go to extremes.

I will lead through the last Jon chapter in ADWD chronologically.

Theory a: The assassination was planned on short notice, from an impulse by Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwyck. The trigger point was the declaration of Jon’s decision to go to Winterfell, which Bowen and Othell regard as a break of the Night Watch’s vow not to interfere with politics in the Seven Kingdoms.

 

The problem people seem to be forgetting is that Yarwyck, Marsh and Thorne are all caught plotting against the NW by playing politics in the Seven Kingdoms by taking suggestion and coercion from Tywin and choosing to sway things their way, again, to please Tywin. This happens back in ASOS, way before Jon is chosen as LC. So, these "noble" southron men started the cracks in the wall first.

Jon tries to break the men up when he becomes LC by sending Thorne ranging, Yarwyck to Nightfort, and beheads Slynt for being Slynty.

Thorne has had a chip on his shoulder against the Starks since Robert's Rebellion and that is why he takes aim at Jon since Jon showed up.

Also, the reader is told over and over that the NW men have forgotten their vows, what they actually mean. LC Mormont goes over this detail twice, and there is discussion about it from a few others as well. Basically, the wall was NOT built to keep out the wildlings. One example:

• [Mormont] "We never knew! But we must have known once. The Night's Watch has forgotten its true purpose, Tarly. You don't build a wall seven hundred feet high to keep savages in skins from stealing women. The Wall was made to guard the realms of men . . . and not against other men, which is all the wildlings are when you come right down to it. Too many years, Tarly, too many hundreds and thousands of years. We lost sight of the true enemy. And now he's here, but we don't know how to fight him. Is dragonglass made by dragons, as the smallfolk like to say?"

Also, it seems fairly clear that the Pink Letter was written to antagonize, to draw Jon into action, and it worked. Jon already knew fArya was getting married to Ramsay, but it wasn't until Ramsay made personal threats to Jon and the Night's Watch that Jon went into action. Jon knew seven chapters earlier that fArya was to marry Ramsay:

• Dance/ Jon 6: "He's to marry Arya Stark. My little sister." Jon could almost see her in that moment, long-faced and gawky, all knobby knees and sharp elbows, with her dirty face and tangled hair. They would wash the one and comb the other, he did not doubt, but he could not imagine Arya in a wedding gown, nor Ramsay Bolton's bed. No matter how afraid she is, she will not show it. If he tries to lay a hand on her, she'll fight him.

Ghost acting crazy is the same that Grey Wind acted that got him locked up before Robb had his own mutiny happen at the Red Wedding. Jon's mutiny and death pattern mirrors Robb's, Bran when attacked by wights outside of the cave, and Rhaegar's death at the Trident. Those were all set ups to foreshadow Jon's arc.

And chances are, George had to have Jon "die" to open his eyes, send him through his dragon puberty, whatever, as he did Bran, and even the Hound to a degree. Jon had to "die" as Bran had to "die".

If Melisandre did not have a magical hand in the mutiny, then the rucous made by Wun Wun when he defends Val against Ser Patrek trying to "steal" her created a diversion enough that Marsh, Wick and the other one or two could stab Jon.

[sweetsunray]

The seeds for an assassination are planted by Tywin and Cersei.

1. Tywin sent a letter to CB regarding the election of the LC - make sure someone pro-Lannister (Slynt) is chosen and I'll send you troops. Allisser tried to use this letter to work on Bowen Marsh.
2. Instead JS is elected and he makes Thorn a ranger, while he wishes to dispatch Slynt to install at another castle. Slynt refuses and alludes to friends. On the morning of his execution, his last chance, Slynt is even more confident about it than he was the day before, citing he has "friends in KL". He refuses the order and Jon decides to behead him, after first deciding to hang him. Bowen Marsh is relieved when Jon says not to hang Slynt, but goes pale white when Slynt will be beheaded.
3. Cersei has 2 letters from CB, one from Slynt revealing that Jon Snow is the LC and colluding with Stannis, and the other letter is Jon's paper shield. Cersei uses this info to set up a mission for Kettleback to be sent with hundred men to the Wall to assassinate Jon, after Kettleback confesses to his treason with the little queen. This plan never fully was put into action, because Cersei ended up in the cells of Baelor's Sept and Kettleback was tortured by HS to confess the actual truth on how Cersei tried to use the HS. Anyway, we should take note of the fact that Slynt managed to send a letter to KL from CB while Jon Snow was LC. Slynt requires help from someone who handles the ravens to get the letter out. There are only 3 known raven handlers - Aemon, Sam and Clydas. Aemon honors his maester's vows, and would never send a letter from Slynt to KL without the ok of Jon Snow. Sam is Jon's best friend, so not possible either. Only Clydas is the man who would possibly help Slynt, since he's no maester and not bound to their vows, nor is he necessarily Jon's friend. Clydas would also know of Tywin's letter to Thorn mentioned in (1). Jon sent Aemon and Sam away before his confrontation with Slynt and the morning of his death. We can thus infer that Slynt was so confident as mentioned in (2), because Clydas helped him send a letter to Cersei by raven from CB the night before. Not only does Slynt feel secure that now Cersei knows of Jon's colluding with Stannis, but that he has people in CB willing to help him behind Jon Snow's back. Except Slynt is executed.
4. Thorn is sent away on ranging and has gone missing. Meanwhile another ranging party returns all dead, as a message from the Wheeper. So, while the main conspiritors are absent or dead (Thorn and Slynt), they would have several people who know of Tywin's letter and know that Cersei received a letter from Slynt informing her that Jon Snow cooperated and made a deal with Stannis. I think they are on the fence for the time being, seeing how the dice will roll, but they fear their fate and that of CB if Stannis loses.
5. Stannis leaves on his mission to gather forces against the KL allies - the Boltons. He sends a letter to CB to inform Jon of his early campaign success - the people who joined him, the liberation of Deepwood Motte and his intent to march on Winterfell. The stewards like Bowne Marsh are disgruntled over several of Jon's decisions regarding Alys Karstark, letting the wildlings through and settling them on the gift, and may regret his choice during Jon Snow's election to LC.
6. The Pink Letter arrives declaring Stannis dead, revealing Jon's involvement in rescuing fArya and how Mance is at WF. I do not think the letter was forged by anyone at CB at all, but it was certainly read by Clydas who was scared and nervous as hell when he gave Jon the letter. The conspiritors would have been as anxious about the outcome of a battle between Stannis and Boltons as Jon and Mel. With Stannis dead and the supposed threat of Ramsay, the conspiritors decide to act in order to protect the NW and act in the interest of KL and Ramsay - kill Jon Snow. While Jon Snow conferred for hours with Tormund, the conspiritors conferred and voted on this choice. 
7. Their plan is to create a confusion so that everyone is distracted as they kill Jon Snow. One of them tells Patrek to get Wun Wun drunk to sneak passed him, or eggs him on to go steal Val. It's BTW possible that Val got Wun Wun drunk, because it's not even certain that she's still at CB (she's not at the window, despite the fact that her bodyguard is killing a man).
8. Meanwhile, Jon Snow reads the letter publically and declares he will march South, while sending others to Hardhome. He goes outside, Patrek ends up being used as a club by Wun Wun and the conspiritors move to kill Jon.

It doesn't imo matter what Jon would have said in the Shield Hall, or that Mance was captured (I actually don't think he is captured). Jon could have done everything by the book and not let wildlings through, etc, but the moment that those who knew of Tywin's threat and offer of help as well as Slynt's letter to Cersei learned of Stannis supposedly being dead, they had to assassinate Jon in their mind. They are true traitors, believing they're doing this to protect the Watch from KL and Boltons, by choosing their side and kill the Stark bastard. They killed him, not for his choices or actions, but because of being Ned Stark's alleged son and having come to an agreement with Stannis, the sole man who actually came to help the NW without making conditions about it, right on time.

[Bowen Marsh]

Bowen Marsh did not want to do what he did, but felt like he had no choice.  Jon had gone off the deep end and basically declared war on the Boltons.  Jon is the one who was wrong in that situation.  Jon made that problem happen.  

[sweetsunray]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Bowen Marsh said:

Bowen Marsh did not want to do what he did, but felt like he had no choice.  Jon had gone off the deep end and basically declared war on the Boltons.  Jon is the one who was wrong in that situation.  Jon made that problem happen.  

They'd have killed Jon Snow if Stannis had fallen at Deepwood Motte. Bowen Marsh may not have wanted to do it, but he felt the necessity to stay on KL's good side even before Jon's election.

[Bowen Marsh]

5 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

They'd have killed Jon Snow if Stannis had fallen at Deepwood Motte.

I have to disagree with you.  Bowen Marsh did what he had to do because Jon Snow was about to do something even more terrible than the treasons he had already committed.  Somebody needed to stop Jon.  Jon was already out of control and had been ever since he decided to let Mance Rayder get out of execution to rescue his sister Arya. 

Bowen Marsh is an honorable man of the watch.  He only chose to assassinate Jon after the Shield Hall meeting.  It was not premeditated.  It was a hastily planned and desperate move to stop his lunatic lord commander from attacking the Warden of the North. 

[The Fattest Leech]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Bowen Marsh said:

Bowen Marsh did not want to do what he did, but felt like he had no choice.  Jon had gone off the deep end and basically declared war on the Boltons.  Jon is the one who was wrong in that situation.  Jon made that problem happen.  

When did Bowen not want to do what happened? Then, or back in ASOS when he is heard plotting? They were going to do it when they wanted to, this just gave them an excuse to do it now. And Ramsay makes an threat of attack if Jon doesn't do what he asks, "Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard's heart and eat it." If Jon follows Ramsay's demands, wouldn't that actually be meddling instead of defense because those are not Jon's people to give or keep. And, Jon doesn't even have fArya or Theon so the demand could never be met, and then we would have Ramsay charging through the snow with his knife and fork coming for Jon's heart.

• A Storm of Swords - Tyrion IV

[Tywin] "There is no need. The Night's Watch is a pack of thieves, killers, and baseborn churls, but it occurs to me that they could prove otherwise, given proper discipline. If Mormont is indeed dead, the black brothers must choose a new Lord Commander."

Pycelle gave Tyrion a sly glance. "An excellent thought, my lord. I know the very man. Janos Slynt."

Tyrion liked that notion not at all. "The black brothers choose their own commander," he reminded them. "Lord Slynt is new to the Wall. I know, I sent him there. Why should they pick him over a dozen more senior men?"

"Because," his father said, in a tone that suggested Tyrion was quite the simpleton, "if they do not vote as they are told, their Wall will melt before it sees another man."

...

"In closing, ask Marsh to pass along His Grace's fondest regards to his faithful friend and servant, Lord Janos Slynt."

• A Storm of Swords - Jon XII

"When has Stannis Baratheon ever had much good to say of anyone?" Ser Alliser's flinty voice was unmistakable. "If we let Stannis choose our Lord Commander, we become his bannermen in all but name. Tywin Lannister is not like to forget that, and you know it will be Lord Tywin who wins in the end. He's already beaten Stannis once, on the Blackwater."

"Lord Tywin favors Slynt," said Bowen Marsh, in a fretful, anxious voice. "I can show you his letter, Othell. 'Our faithful friend and servant,' he called him."

Jon Snow sat up suddenly, and the three men froze at the sound of the slosh. "My lords," he said with cold courtesy.

"What are you doing here, bastard?" Thorne asked.

"Bathing. But don't let me spoil your plotting." Jon climbed from the water, dried, dressed, and left them to conspire.

 

[sweetsunray]

19 minutes ago, Mr. Bowen Marsh said:

I have to disagree with you.  Bowen Marsh did what he had to do because Jon Snow was about to do something even more terrible than the treasons he had already committed.  Somebody needed to stop Jon.  Jon was already out of control and had been ever since he decided to let Mance Rayder get out of execution to rescue his sister Arya. 

Bowen Marsh is an honorable man of the watch.  He only chose to assassinate Jon after the Shield Hall meeting.  It was not premeditated.  It was a hastily planned and desperate move to stop his lunatic lord commander from attacking the Warden of the North. 

What evidence do you have that this was not premeditated? I wasn't aware of a Bowen Marsh POV. I am aware though of talks of Thorn with Bowen and Yarwick that Jon overhears before Jon Snow's election. I am aware that Clydas shows signs of having read the letter before he gave it to Jon. I am aware that Clydas is the sole man who could and would have helped Slynt out with picking a raven to send a letter to KL without Jon's ok when Jon was already LC. And I am aware there are hours between Clydas having read that letter and Jon making a declaration in the Shield Hall. Even if these men decided "it has to be now" when they acted, they had to confer at least as well as find willing mutineers. It's simply impossible to have done this without premeditation.

Now imagine that a letter was sent in Stannis's name, declaring him victor over WF, having killed every Bolton and congratulating Jon on his plan with Mance and assuring him that his sister escaped and is on her way to CB... Would Bowen still kill Jon then? I doubt it. I don't think it would matter one bit to Bowen then that Jon sent Mance and helped Stannis in taking out the Boltons. Bowen doesn't mind that Jon "chose sides", because the NW was put in a situation in the first place where it was impossible to stay out, by Lannisters waving the NW off as unimportant and whatever threat there is beyond the wall being mostly a threat to the North, and Stannis showing up with a bigger army than the NW can ever muster and with the ability to take whatever he chooses if he wished so.

Bowen's issue was that Jon was marked as a target by the Lannisters and chose the alleged losing side (Stannis supposed death).

[Slowpoke Martin]

Maybe I'm just misremembering, but wasn't it Mel who was sending Mance to find fArya on the road because Mel had a vision of her which ended up being Alys Karstark. Mel was the one who told Jon that Mance was still alive and she was trying to get on Jon's good side by doing him a favor he didn't ask for, can we really blame Jon for something he took no part in?

As far as I'm concerned, there is no part in the Nights Watch oath that requires them to stay away from politics, it is more of a practice to gradually separate it's members from their previous outside connections.

Now that I think about it, Mance's actions seem incredibly fishy. He ends up at Winterfell instead of finding Alys Karstark aka fArya on the road. Surely, someone like Mance would have suspicions that fArya is fake because he would have seen real Arya and Jeyne Poole when he was at Winterfell during Bobby B's trip there. Maybe Mance realizes how divided the north is and that Jon Snow could unite them all before its too late.

[kissdbyfire]

5 hours ago, Mr. Bowen Marsh said:

Bowen Marsh did not want to do what he did, but felt like he had no choice.  Jon had gone off the deep end and basically declared war on the Boltons.  Jon is the one who was wrong in that situation.  Jon made that problem happen.  

Sorry, but that's bollocks. There is always a choice.

[kissdbyfire]

5 hours ago, Mr. Bowen Marsh said:

I have to disagree with you.  Bowen Marsh did what he had to do because Jon Snow was about to do something even more terrible than the treasons he had already committed.  Somebody needed to stop Jon.  Jon was already out of control and had been ever since he decided to let Mance Rayder get out of execution to rescue his sister Arya. 

Bowen Marsh is an honorable man of the watch.  He only chose to assassinate Jon after the Shield Hall meeting.  It was not premeditated.  It was a hastily planned and desperate move to stop his lunatic lord commander from attacking the Warden of the North. 

Sorry again, but you're not making any sense. Jon didn't decide "to let Mance get out of execution", as you put it. Jon didn't know Mance hadn't been executed, he didn't even know about the glamour.

Marsh is a prejudiced coward, and he's not the sharpest knife in the drawer. Upside is, he's getting what's coming to him soon enough. 

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

 

 

It was Jon's attempts to rescue fake Arya that started this whole disagreement with House Bolton.  Jon started that quarrel and Ramsay still gave him a way out.  It was Jon's choice and he made a really bad one when he chose to attack instead of complying with the request in the letter.

Only under the assumption that Stannis is actually dead. The smarter move would have been to do nothing and just send out wildling patrols to find out what had actually happened to 'Arya' and at Winterfell, perhaps men who had declared for/accepted Stannis' mercy earlier on while the man was still at the Wall. Thus the NW wouldn't have been directly involved.

If it turned out that Stannis was actually dead then the only opportunity Jon and the NW have is to actually comply with the Bolton demands because they definitely lack the strength to do something about them. But then, I think we all agree that the Pink Letter is full of lies. I only accept that as fact which is actually confirmed (which would be the fact that Ramsay captured and tortured at least one of the spear wives and possibly also Mance Rayder).

9 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

The enmity between Starks and Boltons is thousands of years old. And I'm not sure why you say Ramsay gave Jon a way out... And lastly, "complying with the request" is the last thing Jon should have done. After all, the letter had no request but a series of threats from a known psycho. 

That isn't an argument. The NW doesn't have the luxury to pick and choose the kings and lords of the Seven Kingdoms. They have to do their duty as stipulated by their traditions and stay out of the affairs of the Realm.

9 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The enmity is between the Boltons and the Starks.  It had nothing to do with the Nights Watch until Jon chose to involve the Nights Watch.  It was very wrong of Jon to do that.  The Starks should no longer be his concern. 

That is true. Jon isn't really living up to the ideal. And it is not just his obsession about saving 'Arya' it is also his sympathy for the wildlings that clouding his judgment.

8 hours ago, The Fattest Leech said:

The problem people seem to be forgetting is that Yarwyck, Marsh and Thorne are all caught plotting against the NW by playing politics in the Seven Kingdoms by taking suggestion and coercion from Tywin and choosing to sway things their way, again, to please Tywin. This happens back in ASOS, way before Jon is chosen as LC. So, these "noble" southron men started the cracks in the wall first.

That isn't dishonorable, it is realpolitik. The election of a Lord Commander is always a political affair reflecting the current political situation. Just look how Mormont and his officers suck up to Tyrion because he is the brother-in-law of the king. They knew he has informal power and hope they can get the ear of King Robert through him.

Candidates for the office of the Lord Commander are considered and those who are most likely to help the cause of the Watch are very likely to be elected if the people around them see them in such a light. The assessment that the War of the Five Kings was essentially over and that King Tommen had won it with the help of the Lannisters and Tyrells was the best possible assessment of the political situation the men of the Watch could have at that time. Keep in mind that Tywin Lannister was still alive at that time, and Throne actually knew the man. They had little reason to assume he would die soon and not pacify the Realm completely in the years to come.

Now, would Janos Slynt have been a good and capable Lord Commander? Probably not. But, still, he would have been a man who, in their mind, might have been able to help them secure help from the Iron Throne. And that's what the Watch needed and still needs. The help of the most powerful institution in Westeros.

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

The seeds for an assassination are planted by Tywin and Cersei.

Tywin sent a letter to CB regarding the election of the LC - make sure someone pro-Lannister (Slynt) is chosen and I'll send you troops. Allisser tried to use this letter to work on Bowen Marsh.

There is essentially nothing wrong with that.

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

1. Instead JS is elected and he makes Thorn a ranger, while he wishes to dispatch Slynt to install at another castle. Slynt refuses and alludes to friends. On the morning of his execution, his last chance, Slynt is even more confident about it than he was the day before, citing he has "friends in KL". He refuses the order and Jon decides to behead him, after first deciding to hang him. Bowen Marsh is relieved when Jon says not to hang Slynt, but goes pale white when Slynt will be beheaded.

It is difficult to conclude what all this means. Are there many Lannister toadies in CB aside from Slynt, or are most people there just holding to the very healthy conviction that it is stupid to anger or provoke Tywin Lannister if you want the help of the Iron Throne? I'd say the latter is much more likely.

Slynt is the guy who greatly overestimates the (immediate) power of the Iron Throne at the Wall. As well as his own importance and connection to the Lannisters. Tywin doesn't care as much about the Watch as the people there think he does yet the only hope the people there have is that he actually cares about them and their needs (because else they are doomed).

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

1. Cersei has 2 letters from CB, one from Slynt revealing that Jon Snow is the LC and colluding with Stannis, and the other letter is Jon's paper shield. Cersei uses this info to set up a mission for Kettleback to be sent with hundred men to the Wall to assassinate Jon, after Kettleback confesses to his treason with the little queen. This plan never fully was put into action, because Cersei ended up in the cells of Baelor's Sept and Kettleback was tortured by HS to confess the actual truth on how Cersei tried to use the HS. Anyway, we should take note of the fact that Slynt managed to send a letter to KL from CB while Jon Snow was LC. Slynt requires help from someone who handles the ravens to get the letter out. There are only 3 known raven handlers - Aemon, Sam and Clydas. Aemon honors his maester's vows, and would never send a letter from Slynt to KL without the ok of Jon Snow. Sam is Jon's best friend, so not possible either. Only Clydas is the man who would possibly help Slynt, since he's no maester and not bound to their vows, nor is he necessarily Jon's friend. Clydas would also know of Tywin's letter to Thorn mentioned in (1). Jon sent Aemon and Sam away before his confrontation with Slynt and the morning of his death. We can thus infer that Slynt was so confident as mentioned in (2), because Clydas helped him send a letter to Cersei by raven from CB the night before. Not only does Slynt feel secure that now Cersei knows of Jon's colluding with Stannis, but that he has people in CB willing to help him behind Jon Snow's back. Except Slynt is executed.

I'm with you that Clydas is most likely to be the person to send Slynt's letter to King Tommen yet I'm not sure this is, generally, fishy or illegal considering that we have no idea whether a brother of the NW needs permission from the Lord Commander to sent a letter to the king or anybody else, really.

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

1. Thorn is sent away on ranging and has gone missing. Meanwhile another ranging party returns all dead, as a message from the Wheeper. So, while the main conspiritors are absent or dead (Thorn and Slynt), they would have several people who know of Tywin's letter and know that Cersei received a letter from Slynt informing her that Jon Snow cooperated and made a deal with Stannis. I think they are on the fence for the time being, seeing how the dice will roll, but they fear their fate and that of CB if Stannis loses.

The question to consider there is that we have no clue what information reaches the NW in the meantime. The idea that the people there have any indication that Cersei plans to assassinate Jon via the Kettleblack plan is very unlikely. But the news that Tywin is dead - which eventually reaches the Wall - certainly should have as strong an effect on the expectations of the black brothers that Tommen will prevail in the end as it had on Lord Godric Borrell.

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

1. The Pink Letter arrives declaring Stannis dead, revealing Jon's involvement in rescuing fArya and how Mance is at WF. I do not think the letter was forged by anyone at CB at all, but it was certainly read by Clydas who was scared and nervous as hell when he gave Jon the letter. The conspiritors would have been as anxious about the outcome of a battle between Stannis and Boltons as Jon and Mel. With Stannis dead and the supposed threat of Ramsay, the conspiritors decide to act in order to protect the NW and act in the interest of KL and Ramsay - kill Jon Snow. While Jon Snow conferred for hours with Tormund, the conspiritors conferred and voted on this choice.

There is little reason to assume that Marsh and the other officers were very determined to kill Jon while there was a good chance that Stannis would defeat the Boltons. If he accomplished that he would most likely remain in charge throughout the coming winter (due to the unlikelihood of winter warfare in the North) and the Watch could then work with him and defend the Wall with his and the help of the Northmen for the time being.

Jon's inclusion of the wildlings into all that was a tough nut but they would have tried to go through with it, one assumes. At least while it worked. After all, if there already was a conspiracy in place to assassinate Jon then the much better time would have been to do it before the wildlings came through the gate, not shortly thereafter. The deciding factor for the assassination clearly is the Pink Letter and Jon's subsequent actions.

You also have no reason to assume that Clydas actually read the Pink Letter in advance. The letter looked very intimidating, being addressed to 'the Bastard'. You don't have to read that letter in advance to know that the content means trouble.

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

1. Their plan is to create a confusion so that everyone is distracted as they kill Jon Snow. One of them tells Patrek to get Wun Wun drunk to sneak passed him, or eggs him on to go steal Val. It's BTW possible that Val got Wun Wun drunk, because it's not even certain that she's still at CB (she's not at the window, despite the fact that her bodyguard is killing a man).

There is neither evidence for any of this nor any reason to believe anything of that sort was necessary. We know that Selyse promised Ser Patrek Val's hand and that's all we need to explain why he might to try to sneak into Hardin's Tower. All Marsh and the assassins needed to do to get to Jon was to shadow him after he left the Shieldhall. And that they did or else they wouldn't have been there to kill him when they did.

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It doesn't imo matter what Jon would have said in the Shield Hall, or that Mance was captured (I actually don't think he is captured).

The chances that Mance actually got captured are pretty high. The man isn't a super hero, after all, and the whole abduction thing was clumsily executed and botched in the end. Only Theon and Jeyne got away. Winterfell is full of armed men, even with the Freys and Manderlys leaving the castle. The idea that a man like Mance could get out of there alive if the Boltons and other began looking for him is about zero.

The only chance I see for Mance evade capture is if he still had his glamor (or another glamor) with him, enabling him to become Rattleshirt again. They wouldn't be looking for that guy. But then, this would have been pretty risky, too, since nobody would recognize that man and people would quickly wonder who he was and what he was doing in the castle.

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Jon could have done everything by the book and not let wildlings through, etc, but the moment that those who knew of Tywin's threat and offer of help as well as Slynt's letter to Cersei learned of Stannis supposedly being dead, they had to assassinate Jon in their mind.

There is no evidence for that. After all, you don't have a POV of those people, do you? I agree that Jon had to go after he publicly declared to break his vows and march against Winterfell. That was treason and desertion, after all. Ramsay offered Jon a way out, after all.

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

They are true traitors, believing they're doing this to protect the Watch from KL and Boltons, by choosing their side and kill the Stark bastard. They killed him, not for his choices or actions, but because of being Ned Stark's alleged son and having come to an agreement with Stannis, the sole man who actually came to help the NW without making conditions about it, right on time.

There is no evidence for that, either. Thorne dislikes Jon, but we don't know whether Thorne is involved in any of that. The idea that Marsh and others preferring to have good relations with the Iron Throne rather than with a doomed pretender like Stannis because they dislike the Stark bastard makes no sense at all. We also don't know what the plan were before the assassination or why they killed him when they did. But Jon thinking his policies could continue in case of Stannis' death was unrealistic, and his decision to march against Winterfell was treason.

The fact that Stannis might still be alive doesn't change any of that.

5 hours ago, Slowpoke Martin said:

Maybe I'm just misremembering, but wasn't it Mel who was sending Mance to find fArya on the road because Mel had a vision of her which ended up being Alys Karstark. Mel was the one who told Jon that Mance was still alive and she was trying to get on Jon's good side by doing him a favor he didn't ask for, can we really blame Jon for something he took no part in?

Jon allowed Mance to go. It was his decision to allow it. That's why Mel told Jon who 'Rattleshirt' was in the first place.

Even if we came to the conclusion that Jon was blameless in that whole thing there is no reason why we should think Roose and Ramsay agree with us and interpret everything in favor of Jon Snow. Jon allowed a known turncloak, criminal, and raider to leave Castle Black and infiltrate Winterfell. That is an act of war.

I mean, presumably the King of Winter also sent the Night's King some threats trying to convince him to end his evil ways/step down as Lord Commander before he had to face the power of the Starks in battle. He refused to listen to reason just as Jon did when he declared war on the Boltons. And the same presumably goes for Runcel Hightower and any other Lord Commander who broke his vows and ended up in a conflict with the realms of men.