U.S. Politics 2017: You Flynn Some, You Lose Some

[Tywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Ormond said:

Trump's "Big Lie" tactic is as much or more lying to himself as it is to anyone else. He is not Machiavellian. There is no depth at all to the man. 

You’re probably right for the most part, but it wouldn’t be shocking to find out that he knows about it and is using it, albeit in a secondary manner.

[Tywin et al.]

In more important news, Congress only has 10 days left, including today, to reach a deal to keep the government open on Dec 8^th and Sen. Schumer and Minority Leader Pelosi  just pulled out of a scheduled meeting at the White House today after Trump insulted them on Twitter. There may actually be a chance that the shutdown happens since Republicans probably don’t have the votes on their own to pass a short term measure.

[LongRider]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Did you notice whose painting was hanging in the backgroud during Pres. Trump's little talk... Andrew Jackson.  Clearly Trump has all the sensitivity of a bull in a china shop.

Yes, I've seen that commented on.  No doubt the honorees notlced it. 

[Guest]

Corker and Langford, among others, appear to be working on last minute revisions to the tax bill which would create a trigger effect for the purpose of generating new revenue if the tax reform bill passes and budget deficits start getting too steep.

It appears that Corker, Lankford, Moran  and Flake have formed a deficit-hawk cadre who stand behind this revisional "backstop" legislation. Opposed to them are Senators like Grassley and Kennedy, who do not appear to want to vote for the provisional backstop amendment.

“It will pay for itself,” declared Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA). “I would not vote for this bill if I thought it was going to increase the deficit.”

“Now, it might in the short term,” Kennedy allowed. “But in the medium term and the long term, I think it will pay for itself.”

“We have economists saying that if the economy will grow four-tenths of one percent, it’ll pay for itself,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) told TPM, adding that he is vehemently opposed to Corker and Lankford’s trigger idea.

“I don’t think it would look very good to have a bill to cut taxes that also signals to the world that we’re just automatically going to increase taxes,” he told TPM. “One of the things that is very important with the economy is certainty. Tax legislation has a lot to do with that certainty. But that would bring a great deal of uncertainty into it.”

Then you have Daines and Johnson currently against the bill regarding their passthrough issues for small businesses, Collins apparently against the bill so long as it includes the individual mandate repeal, and McCain is the wild card.

If this gets pushed back to next week, will they have time to have a vote on tax reform while also taking care of the looming budget battle?

[TrueMetis]

13 minutes ago, Nasty LongRider said:

Yes, I've seen that commented on.  No doubt the honorees notlced it. 

Next he will honour Jewish vets while standing in front of a painting of Hitler.

[Maithanet]

8 minutes ago, TrueMetis said:

Next he will honour Jewish vets while standing in front of a painting of Hitler.

Tough getting a picture of Hitler into the White House.  But I could see him "honoring" jewish veterans in front of a Charles Lindbergh picture, or for that matter black veterans in front of Strom Thurmond or George Wallace.

This is just Trump giving the old razzle dazzle.  Make the media dance to his tune.  His base loves it, and it's pretty obvious Trump personally enjoys it too. 

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Corker and Langford, among others, appear to be working on last minute revisions to the tax bill which would create a trigger effect for the purpose of generating new revenue if the tax reform bill passes and budget deficits start getting too steep.

It appears that Corker, Lankford, Moran  and Flake have formed a deficit-hawk cadre who stand behind this revisional "backstop" legislation. Opposed to them are Senators like Grassley and Kennedy, who do not appear to want to vote for the provisional backstop amendment.

 

 

 

Quote

“It will pay for itself,” declared Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA). “I would not vote for this bill if I thought it was going to increase the deficit.”

I tell ya, Republicans are some flamin' idiots. Tax cut pay for themselves. When are they going drop this crap?

Quote

“We have economists saying that if the economy will grow four-tenths of one percent, it’ll pay for itself,” Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) told TPM, adding that he is vehemently opposed to Corker and Lankford’s trigger idea.

I like to know which "economist" are saying this? Stephen Moore? Dow 36000 Kevin Hastett? Larry Kudlow? Art Laffer? They usual set of clowns?

[Mexal]

Meh. These guys will take anyone at their word. No language, text or real idea what this trigger would do, when it would be triggered, what effect it will have. Nothing. Get a commitment and vote yes. This shit is going to pass.

 

[Dr. Pepper]

18 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Tough getting a picture of Hitler into the White House.  But I could see him "honoring" jewish veterans in front of a Charles Lindbergh picture, or for that matter black veterans in front of Strom Thurmond or George Wallace.

This is just Trump giving the old razzle dazzle.  Make the media dance to his tune.  His base loves it, and it's pretty obvious Trump personally enjoys it too. 

I don't even know if Trump has the capability to think ahead in that way.  Like he wakes up and says to his lackey, "Hmm, I'm honoring Navajo vets.  Make sure we really insult by standing us in front of the dude who pursue a genocidal agenda against them."  

[Morpheus]

Trump has long expressed admiration for Andrew Jackson, big surprise that he loves the genocidal, racist, volatile old asshole

[ThinkerX]

Ok, I get several phone calls a week from pollsters, biased and unbiased.

 

Todays (biased) pollster wanted me to remind my senators (specifically Murkowski) to vote FOR the tax reform package.

 

Makes me wonder if Murkowski isn't wavering just a little.

 

I put the odds at better than 50-50 the current republican tax plan crashes and burns. Should it crash, do Ryan and McConnell still have jobs? (leadership positions) 

[Mexal]

5 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

I put the odds at better than 50-50 the current republican tax plan crashes and burns. Should it crash, do Ryan and McConnell still have jobs? (leadership positions) 

Probably. Senate tax bill just passed committee along party lines. Now to the floor.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

56 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Corker and Langford, among others, appear to be working on last minute revisions to the tax bill which would create a trigger effect for the purpose of generating new revenue if the tax reform bill passes and budget deficits start getting too steep.

It appears that Corker, Lankford, Moran  and Flake have formed a deficit-hawk cadre who stand behind this revisional "backstop" legislation. Opposed to them are Senators like Grassley and Kennedy, who do not appear to want to vote for the provisional backstop amendment.

 

 

It's such a terrible idea - ooo, revenues go down because we are in a Recession, SO LET'S RAISE TAXES.  SMH.  This is why we don't need a cut now.  Only, it's not really a cut and...and...I just can't.

12 minutes ago, Mexal said:

Probably. Senate tax bill just passed committee along party lines. Now to the floor.

It's basically a foregone conclusion at this point.  Hope everyone is ready to open their wallets.

[Tywin et al.]

56 minutes ago, OldGimletEye said:

 

I tell ya, Republicans are some flamin' idiots. Tax cut pay for themselves. When are they going drop this crap?

They’ll give it up when Reagan falls out of favor. So never?

I honestly do wonder if Reagan will be remembered fondly 20-30 years from now when the negative effects of his actions will affect almost everyone.

[Mexal]

12 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

It's basically a foregone conclusion at this point.  Hope everyone is ready to open their wallets.

I just need to become a millionaire. Easy. Should have married richer.

[Mlle. Zabzie]

1 minute ago, Mexal said:

I just need to become a millionaire. Easy. Should have married richer.

Nah - millionaires in NYC are going to get hammered.  You need to move to Texas. Or Florida.  And have only passive income.  So basically if you are a billionaire living in Texas off inherited oil money, you are golden.  Otherwise?  Best of luck.

[OldGimletEye]

Now, conservative sorts of people. Remember way back when you went running around, like chicken with your head cut off, claiming how the ACA was going to cause rampant healthcare price inflation.

Now conservative of people, I’m not going to accuse of outright lying, but you might have been just a tad hysterical.

Anyway conservative sorts of people.

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2017/november/contribution-to-low-pce-inflation-from-healthcare/

Quote

After eight years of economic recovery, inflation remains below the FOMC’s target. Dissecting the underlying price data by spending category reveals that low inflation largely reflects prices that are relatively insensitive to overall economic conditions. Notably, modest increases in health-care prices, which have been held down by mandated cuts to the growth of Medicare payments, have helped moderate overall inflation. Further slow growth in health-care prices is likely to remain a drag on inflation.

 

Quote

What has been causing this persistent decline in health-care services inflation? A major factor has been legislated changes to Medicare payments. Through various pieces of legislation, including the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the federal government has slowed the growth of Medicare payments to physicians and hospitals. These payments are directly included in the BEA’s health-care services price index, which by construction translates into a slower rate of health-care services inflation. As shown in Clemens and Gottlieb (2016) these legislated changes to Medicare payment growth can also affect the payment growth for private insurers and thus pervade throughout the health-care services sector.

I’ll just add while it’s certainly interesting that the authors find the ACA helped to lower the healthcare inflation, I just have to say, there is something missing from this or at least something that I should add.

If people’s inflation expectations are anchored at 2%, and the historical rate for healthcare inflation falls, it stands to reason that extra inflation would show up somewhere else. A good candidate would be wages.

Now some people, it would seem have been panicky as of late and wondering whether the expectations augmented phillips curve is even viable. But, I think the story is fairly simple here. There is still some slack on the labor market.

Here conservative sorts of people:

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=fUia

[Mexal]

5 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Nah - millionaires in NYC are going to get hammered.  You need to move to Texas. Or Florida.  And have only passive income.  So basically if you are a billionaire living in Texas off inherited oil money, you are golden.  Otherwise?  Best of luck.

What if I become a millionaire real estate mogul? 

[ThinkerX]

7 minutes ago, Mexal said:

What if I become a millionaire real estate mogul? 

Then you'd be golden...until the upcoming real-estate crash, currently scheduled for 2020. (effective repeat of the 2007-2008 fiasco)

 

[OldGimletEye]

23 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

They’ll give it up when Reagan falls out of favor. So never?

I honestly do wonder if Reagan will be remembered fondly 20-30 years from now when the negative effects of his actions will affect almost everyone.

For about 40 years, conservatives have been running around writing hot checks that they can't cash. I think it's about time we collect the bill.

Seriously, though when the age of Roosevelt ended and the age of Reagan began, the conservative claim was: You've never seen awesome growth like this. Just give us a chance! And well they haven't delivered the goods and it's not really close.