u.s. politics: abortive cure for labor pains

[Mexal]

7 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

And the Dow drops 500 points immediately after Trump announces the new tariffs.  It's almost as if people don't think trade wars are good for business.

Shit like this drives me nuts. We're at near full employment, interest rates are low, our spending is nuts so what does Trump et al do? Cut $2.3 billion in revenue generating taxes. Fine. They live in a fantasy land that these taxes will pay for themselves through economic growth but that is nothing new. We know this won't happen, especially given the record amount of corporate buybacks announced since the tax deal but sure, whatever, the stock market is still ok. So what does Trump do? Announce tariffs, which are effectively taxes on the consumers, and will likely destroy certain businesses, in all in an effort to bring back businesses that have already left the US. And what happens? Stock market drops. So they put money, in the short term, back into people's pockets while rising costs on pretty much all consumer goods and insurance. Well played.

The erosion of this country has been so swift and so thorough that it almost defies belief. And as always, a democrat will have to try to fix it, won't be able to do it fast enough because it's faster to destroy than build something up and another Republican will come back in using the same fucking playbook and do the same fucking thing again.

[DMC]

When the news cycle is dominated by substantively depressing items, Mooch is here to comfort us all by doing what he does best - vulgarly attacking WH staffers:

Quote

Ex-Trump aide Anthony Scaramucci blasted chief of staff John Kelly as “General Jackass” on Thursday, accusing him of pushing out top White House aides.

"Does the president want to lose everyone because of General Jackass?” 

Stay gold, Ponyboy.

[Jace, Extat]

1 hour ago, Mexal said:

Shit like this drives me nuts. We're at near full employment, interest rates are low, our spending is nuts so what does Trump et al do? Cut $2.3 billion in revenue generating taxes. Fine. They live in a fantasy land that these taxes will pay for themselves through economic growth but that is nothing new. We know this won't happen, especially given the record amount of corporate buybacks announced since the tax deal but sure, whatever, the stock market is still ok. So what does Trump do? Announce tariffs, which are effectively taxes on the consumers, and will likely destroy certain businesses, in all in an effort to bring back businesses that have already left the US. And what happens? Stock market drops. So they put money, in the short term, back into people's pockets while rising costs on pretty much all consumer goods and insurance. Well played.

The erosion of this country has been so swift and so thorough that it almost defies belief. And as always, a democrat will have to try to fix it, won't be able to do it fast enough because it's faster to destroy than build something up and another Republican will come back in using the same fucking playbook and do the same fucking thing again.

Don't forget, the impending trade war is the excuse for the impending economic collapse.

[DMC]

5 hours ago, Fez said:

But if he publicly backed something more piecemeal like the revisited Manchin-Toomey bill, or the new Feinstein-Flake bill, and didn't waver, I think it could get through.

Yeah, theoretically, this is pretty clear.  It reminds me of an old advisor that always liked pointing out seemingly intractable change is often achieved by a president that has a high credibly with those opposed to the change, e.g. LBJ as the Southern good ol' boy passing civil rights; virulent anti-communist Nixon opening up China.  To clarify, I don't think Trump has cultivated that same type of credibility as pro-gun, but he certainly commands the constituency that does.

In reality of course, there's an old saying about wishes and horses that comes to mind.  I think (of all people) Cornyn's response yesterday was the right one - put up or shut up:

Quote

“Your bill is really good and really important, having to do with a certain aspect, but maybe we could make it much more comprehensive and have one bill instead of 15 different bills,” Trump told Cornyn.

Cornyn replied: “If we can get 60 votes on it, Mr. President, I’m all for it.”

 

[Maithanet]

5 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

In reality of course, there's an old saying about wishes and horses that comes to mind.  I think (of all people) Cornyn's response yesterday was the right one - put up or shut up:

All the chaos in the White House and the tariffs are already taking gun control off the front pages, which is exactly what the NRA wants. They know all they need to do is wait it out and they'll be fine.  There is no way that Republicans are going to make a sustained push for gun control.  Assuming there isn't another school shooting in the couple weeks, any hope for real change has already passed. 

[Larry of the Lawn]

12 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

 

In reality of course, there's an old saying about wishes and horses that comes to mind.  

 

Ok I'm stumped.  Best guesses

-Don't look a gift horse in the mouth wish.

-Wish in one hand, have a horse shit in the other, see which fills up first.

-dont change horses mid-wish

 

Seriously throw me a horsewishbone here

 

[Mexal]

 

 

[Prince of the North]

18 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Ok I'm stumped.  Best guesses

-Don't look a gift horse in the mouth wish.

-Wish in one hand, have a horse shit in the other, see which fills up first.

-dont change horses mid-wish

 

Seriously throw me a horsewishbone here

 

Maybe something along the lines of "If wishes were horses, beggars would ride"?

ETA:  Hey!  I was right!

[DMC]

14 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Seriously throw me a horsewishbone here

If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

[DMC]

18 minutes ago, Mexal said:

[McMaster tweet]

Interesting that Mattis is apparently behind it:

Quote

The White House is preparing to replace H.R. McMaster as national security adviser as early as next month in a move orchestrated by chief of staff John Kelly and Defense Secretary James Mattis, according to five people familiar with the discussions. [...]

A leading candidate to become President Donald Trump’s third national security adviser is the auto industry executive Stephen Biegun, according to the officials.

Rice introduced Biegun to Mattis, recommending him for a position in the administration, according to a close associate of Rice. After Mattis met with Biegun at a think tank event he was convinced Biegun would be a good fit for the national security adviser role, the associate said.

 

[Kalbear]

21 minutes ago, Mexal said:

 

 

Eh. They said that about SecState. Didn't happen. 

[Maithanet]

14 minutes ago, Mexal said:

[McMaster being replaced]

Ugh.  McMaster, Rosenstein and (possibly) Mattis are the only people in this administration that I want to stay at their jobs.  Not that I like any of them, but they're almost assuredly better than whoever will replace them. 

I figured McMaster's time was almost up when he said that Russian meddling in the 2016 election was "beyond dispute".  Which of course, any credible NSA would say, but acknowledging reality is dangerous in this White House. I'm sure Trump will replace him with someone who thinks the Russian threat is just something Democrats cooked up. 

[Paladin of Ice]

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

And the Dow drops 500 points immediately after Trump announces the new tariffs.  It's almost as if people don't think trade wars are good for business.

This particular one over steel is going to be much worse and much stupider than most. Ever since Trump began talking up steel tariffs, I've been keeping tabs on the issue and learning a few facts along the way, many of which make getting into a trade war over steel facepalmingly stupid.

Fact 1: Despite what Agent Orange says, Chinese steel is already heavily tariffed and has restrictions on it. As a result, China isn't even in the top ten of the countries the US imports steel from.

Fact 2: Most of those top ten countries are (or should be) close allies and key countries we want to have good relationships with around the world, including Canada, Germany, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Japan, etc.

Fact 3: To make good quality steel you need to make steel alloys. Nickel is a particularly import component for these alloys, as it improves both the flexibility and durability of steel, as well as making it stand up to cold temperatures better and reducing the oxidation and corrosion of steel. (In stainless steel in particular it's a required component.)

Fact 4: The US is rather poor in its resources of nickel. In fact, there is only 1 mine in the country that primarily mines nickel, (in most others it's a secondary ore collected in the course of what they're really mining for) and that particular mine reopened in 2014 and is only slated for an 8 year life.

Fact 5: As a result of the above, if the US tries to make all or most of its own steel, (which seems to be the goal, going by Trump's talks with the steel industry and investigating whether importing steel is a national security issue) we will either be making substandard steel or we will still be on the hook to other countries who hold valuable components such as nickel that we will need to do so. (By the way, if you already guessed that Russia and China are both among the biggest nickel producers in the world, [Russia being #2 and China #8] you're well ahead of the curve here.)

And since some of those big nickel producing countries are the same ones we were importing steel from, (Canada and Brazil, for example) and whose economies we just screwed with by putting on the tariffs in the first place, they will have every reason to make us pay through the nose to get it. (Others will have other reasons besides national interest to jack up prices, I'm sure Australian politicians wouldn't mind grabbing a pound of flesh from Trump and co. over past quarrels, insults, and refusal to live up to treaty obligations.)

So, do you want your buildings, stainless steel products, and military vehicles made with steel more likely likely to break down, rust, and corrode, or do you want to not only significantly raise the price you pay for any steel products but also be directly at the mercy of countries with a resource advantage and an ax to grind? Or would you rather just play nice as per trade rules?

So, anyone who knows how this constitutes a benefit to the US given the facts laid out above, feel free to explain it to me.

[Mexal]

 

[Fez]

25 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Eh. They said that about SecState. Didn't happen. 

Yeah, my sentiments exactly. For all the people who have left this administration, very few have actually been fired. If someone is determined to stay at their job (like Sessions is), Trump almost never actually acts. Comey is actually one of the few exceptions, and was a case where both Trump wanted to do it and his family wanted him to do it.

[Mexal]

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Yeah, my sentiments exactly. For all the people who have left this administration, very few have actually been fired. If someone is determined to stay at their job (like Sessions is), Trump almost never actually acts. Comey is actually one of the few exceptions, and was a case where both Trump wanted to do it and his family wanted him to do it.

Yea, that's true unless of course, the driving force of removing someone is Mattis/Kelly and we know Kelly has gotten mostly what he wants in terms of getting rid of people. Trump is fine with people getting fired if someone else does it (see him yelling at McGahn to get Sessions to resign) but he won't do it himself. If Kelly is pushing McMaster out, he'll go. And really, can't see a lot of reason why McMaster would absolutely want to stay. This isn't like Sessions who really really wants to impose his archaic rule of law thoughts. That's why he supported Trump in the first place. McMaster did it out of duty and if no one wants him there, he'll leave.

In other news, Trump is unraveling.

 

[Martell Spy]

2 minutes ago, Fez said:

Yeah, my sentiments exactly. For all the people who have left this administration, very few have actually been fired. If someone is determined to stay at their job (like Sessions is), Trump almost never actually acts. Comey is actually one of the few exceptions, and was a case where both Trump wanted to do it and his family wanted him to do it.

They are afraid of the 'Chaos in the White House' narrative and there has already been many senior resignations. It leads to some staying on longer than they perhaps would have.

[Paladin of Ice]

5 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

They are afraid of the 'Chaos in the White House' narrative and there has already been many senior resignations. It leads to some staying on longer than they perhaps would have.

Supposedly, despite the catchphrase on The Apprentice, Trump is supposedly a pushover who hates confrontation and would rather passively fire people or leave it up to someone else to do it for him.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 hours ago, dmc515 said:

When the news cycle is dominated by substantively depressing items, Mooch is here to comfort us all by doing what he does best - vulgarly attacking WH staffers:

Stay gold, Ponyboy.

I still like this Mooch line the best:

He warned them from the beginning here was here to take down the elephants! 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

31 minutes ago, Paladin of Ice said:

Supposedly, despite the catchphrase on The Apprentice, Trump is supposedly a pushover who hates confrontation and would rather passively fire people or leave it up to someone else to do it for him.

First you  me on the insanity of the externalities of the tariffs and now you do it again with Trump being a gutless coward who hates firing people and is bad at confrontation! What next man?