The Brightfyre theory

[Veltigar]

The new twow chapter might have yielded yet another relevant little tidbit:

First, we need to look at Varys' originstory:

"I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King’s Landing."

After that he got cut (presumably because of his King's blood) and dumped on the streets.

Now in the sample chapter:

Arya is part of Izembaro's band of Mummers. Iz owns a theatre called the gates, but close by there is another playhouse. This theatre is located on a Ship that has been located there for 20 years.

Now why exactly is this relevant?

In the sample chapter it is said that rich patrons who are willing to pay the prize can have their way with every actress (and I presume actor) they want.

One of the things we still have some trouble with here in the Brightfyre theory is how Varys knew where to find his sister and why he would even care (besides a marriage contract with House Blackfyre's scion Illyrio), since Varys must have left with the ship at a very early age.

This chapter might have just given us the answer. What if the Ship docked in Braavos is actually Varys' ship? Both he and his sister were sold to it at an early age and were forced to take care of customers (yet another reason for Varys to exact revenge on the Targs 'for the children').

Eventually Varys got cut and embarked on the journey to become a master criminal. He met up with Illyrio and together they tracked the ship down, found out that it was lying in Lys (or that some time ago Serra had been sold to a brothel there) and extracted her.

If the Brightflame scion and his sister were on a ship, moving from city to city, it might also explain why both Tywin and Steffon (and perhaps other agents as well) with all their resources weren't able to track them down and bring them to KL to provide a bride of suitable blood for Rhaegar.

[Alia of the knife]

The new twow chapter might have yielded yet another relevant little tidbit:

First, we need to look at Varys' originstory:

"I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King’s Landing."

After that he got cut (presumably because of his King's blood) and dumped on the streets.

Now in the sample chapter:

Arya is part of Izembaro's band of Mummers. Iz owns a theatre called the gates, but close by there is another playhouse. This theatre is located on a Ship that has been located there for 20 years.

Now why exactly is this relevant?

In the sample chapter it is said that rich patrons who are willing to pay the prize can have their way with every actress (and I presume actor) they want.

One of the things we still have some trouble with here in the Brightfyre theory is how Varys knew where to find his sister and why he would even care (besides a marriage contract with House Blackfyre's scion Illyrio), since Varys must have left with the ship at a very early age.

This chapter might have just given us the answer. What if the Ship docked in Braavos is actually Varys' ship? Both he and his sister were sold to it at an early age and were forced to take care of customers (yet another reason for Varys to exact revenge on the Targs 'for the children').

Eventually Varys got cut and embarked on the journey to become a master criminal. He met up with Illyrio and together they tracked the ship down, found out that it was lying in Lys (or that some time ago Serra had been sold to a brothel there) and extracted her.

If the Brightflame scion and his sister were on a ship, moving from city to city, it might also explain why both Tywin and Steffon (and perhaps other agents as well) with all their resources weren't able to track them down and bring them to KL to provide a bride of suitable blood for Rhaegar.

Good points.

I also think its fascinating that both sisters, Arya and Sansa are walking the same paths of Varys and LF. As I've speculated before, I think Varys knows where Arya is but is choosing to keep quiet for some reason.

As far as the chapter goes, I speculated that Arya is learning to use all in her arsenal, and expect that she will also come to the attention of the Black Pearl or the Veiled Lady at some point given the references.

[Frey family reunion]

All right, since my Black Pearl theory went up in flames (no pun intended), let me try to get one more handle on this theory before I completely dismiss it out of hand. I assume you are saying that Varys is a descendant of Aerion "Brightflame" Targaryen. Varys also had a sister, Serra. They were both slaves. Maybe they were both on the ship docked in Braavos that now serves as a theatre. After a performance, Varys gets handed to the guy who cut his twigs and berries off. Varys is put out on the streets.

Varys hooks up with Illyrio. After a few drinks, they both realize how much they have in common. Hey guess what? My mom is a Blackfyre, too bad uncle Maelys got killed by Barristan. Varys tells him, what a coincidence, my grandpa was Aerion Brightflame, too bad he drank a glass of wildfire, hey I need to hook you up with my sister, if we could only find her. Illyrio tells him that that sounds great, I'll look for her and you get yourself to King's Landing and make Aerys super paranoid.

Illyrio searches high and low and finds Serra (still in the ship?). He marries her, she gets pregnant and they have a kid. I assume that her pregnancy isn't a big secret at the time? Or is it? Varys visits his nephew, tells Illyrio that the kid has Rhaegar's eyes, and then says how about we pretend that he's not your kid but he's Rhaegar's kid, and then we'll get ourselves a Septon, a guy who was almost a maester, and Connington to teach the kid how to be a king. You use your mother's Blackfyre connections to get the Golden Company on board and while we're at it let's use Rhaegar's siblings as patsies, so Dorne can't use them to put them back on the throne?

I guess it's no weirder than any of the other possibilities, but what about the whole, Illyrio and his wife has a kid and all of a sudden, the kid goes from being Illyrio's kid, to not being Illyrio's kid. Wouldn't that raise some awkward questions around Pentos? Or was this the plan before he got her pregnant, and he convinced her that if the kid was going to be a boy that we're going to pretend it's Rhaegar's kid? Or did he wait for her to die before they came up with this plan? Did only his servants know that she was pregnant and had a kid, and he trusts the servants not to gossip?

[Mithras]

“So long as I am with you, though … well, an old fat man must have his comforts, yes?”

The fat man dabbed grease from his lips. “I am an old man, grown weary of this world and its treacheries.”

“I told you, my little friend, not all that a man does is done for gain. Believe as you wish, but even fat old fools like me have friends, and debts of affection to repay.”

How old do you think Illyrio is? I think he might be 50-60. It may even possible that he fought at the Wot5PK. Maybe he was 16 and just like his statue in the garden during Wot5PK.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

The new twow chapter might have yielded yet another relevant little tidbit:

First, we need to look at Varys' originstory:

"I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King’s Landing."

After that he got cut (presumably because of his King's blood) and dumped on the streets.

Now in the sample chapter:

Arya is part of Izembaro's band of Mummers. Iz owns a theatre called the gates, but close by there is another playhouse. This theatre is located on a Ship that has been located there for 20 years.

Now why exactly is this relevant?

In the sample chapter it is said that rich patrons who are willing to pay the prize can have their way with every actress (and I presume actor) they want.

One of the things we still have some trouble with here in the Brightfyre theory is how Varys knew where to find his sister and why he would even care (besides a marriage contract with House Blackfyre's scion Illyrio), since Varys must have left with the ship at a very early age.

This chapter might have just given us the answer. What if the Ship docked in Braavos is actually Varys' ship? Both he and his sister were sold to it at an early age and were forced to take care of customers (yet another reason for Varys to exact revenge on the Targs 'for the children').

Eventually Varys got cut and embarked on the journey to become a master criminal. He met up with Illyrio and together they tracked the ship down, found out that it was lying in Lys (or that some time ago Serra had been sold to a brothel there) and extracted her.

If the Brightflame scion and his sister were on a ship, moving from city to city, it might also explain why both Tywin and Steffon (and perhaps other agents as well) with all their resources weren't able to track them down and bring them to KL to provide a bride of suitable blood for Rhaegar.

Interesting thoughts. Do you think the finding of Serra "in a Lysene pillow house" is true? Does it factor into this? Did Serra wind up in Lys, which seems like a semi-significant tie-in to Aerion Brightflame, or was Illyrio straight up lying about where he found her?

And I like the points Frey Family Reunion made above. How do we think Varys and Illyrio did meet? If the Brightfyre theory is fundamentally correct (and Veltigar, I would very much like it to be so) then it implies one of them (I would guess Varys) actively sought the other out to put this alliance together, and Illyrio's statement of "IDK why Varys picked me" was a lie (surprise!).

[Alia of the knife]

On the matter of Illryios age, if I had to speculate, I would imagine he is likely around 50. The reason why I think this is actually what I speculate about Septa Lemores/Serras age.

Many suscribe to the idea that she is Ashara, but I've just never been able to reconcile the age thing, because if Ashara was anywhere between Lyanna and Brandons age, she would be in her early to mid thirities if she were still alive.

Tyrion sees a woman he thinks is in her early to mid forties, and "handsome." If a woman looks eight to ten years older, she is not going to be handsome, however, if she actually looks younger than she is, she has aged gracefully and more likely to be "handsome," so I speculate that Septa Lemore is around 45 to 48 years herself.

Even if she did have Young Griff later than most women of the time, it still makes sense, because if she has been in a pillow house most of her youth, she likely drank her tea to deliberately keep from concieving.

I also foung this passage interesting from aDwD, Tyrion III:

"Tyrion wakes to find himself alone in IIIryios's litter and hears voices. Outside, Illyrio is talking to two men named Haldon, also called the Halfmaester, and Ser Rolly Duckfield, who goes by Duck. They transfer supplies from Illyrio's baggage train to their pack horses. As they work, Illyrio asks after a boy, reports in a sad voice that he has brought a bag of the boy's favorite sweets, and suggests that perhaps he could accompany them to Ghoyan Drohle for a farewell feast before he returns home. Haldon replies that Griff means to leave as soon as they return, for the Dothraki are on the move."

[Lost Melnibonean]

The new twow chapter might have yielded yet another relevant little tidbit:

First, we need to look at Varys' originstory:

"I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and Kings Landing."

After that he got cut (presumably because of his King's blood) and dumped on the streets.

Now in the sample chapter:

Arya is part of Izembaro's band of Mummers. Iz owns a theatre called the gates, but close by there is another playhouse. This theatre is located on a Ship that has been located there for 20 years.

Now why exactly is this relevant?

In the sample chapter it is said that rich patrons who are willing to pay the prize can have their way with every actress (and I presume actor) they want.

One of the things we still have some trouble with here in the Brightfyre theory is how Varys knew where to find his sister and why he would even care (besides a marriage contract with House Blackfyre's scion Illyrio), since Varys must have left with the ship at a very early age.

This chapter might have just given us the answer. What if the Ship docked in Braavos is actually Varys' ship? Both he and his sister were sold to it at an early age and were forced to take care of customers (yet another reason for Varys to exact revenge on the Targs 'for the children').

Eventually Varys got cut and embarked on the journey to become a master criminal. He met up with Illyrio and together they tracked the ship down, found out that it was lying in Lys (or that some time ago Serra had been sold to a brothel there) and extracted her.

If the Brightflame scion and his sister were on a ship, moving from city to city, it might also explain why both Tywin and Steffon (and perhaps other agents as well) with all their resources weren't able to track them down and bring them to KL to provide a bride of suitable blood for Rhaegar.

I've had that idea that Steffon was searching for a legitimate heir of Aerion to wed Rhaegar. Tywin probably had his own agenda. I like idea about the Ship too. Here's the relevant passage from Clash...

"I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King's Landing.

"One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. I was in terror. I feared the man meant to use me as I had heard men used small boys, but in truth the only part of me he had need of was my manhood. ..."

Any other clues there? Was the Ship, ei ther in Feast, Dance or Mercy, ever described as a cog? Was its master ever said to have performed in Oldtown, KL or Myr? Was the Ship ever said to have sailed about the Narrow Sea?

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

All right, since my Black Pearl theory went up in flames (no pun intended), let me try to get one more handle on this theory before I completely dismiss it out of hand. I assume you are saying that Varys is a descendant of Aerion "Brightflame" Targaryen. Varys also had a sister, Serra. They were both slaves. Maybe they were both on the ship docked in Braavos that now serves as a theatre. After a performance, Varys gets handed to the guy who cut his twigs and berries off. Varys is put out on the streets.

Varys hooks up with Illyrio. After a few drinks, they both realize how much they have in common. Hey guess what? My mom is a Blackfyre, too bad uncle Maelys got killed by Barristan. Varys tells him, what a coincidence, my grandpa was Aerion Brightflame, too bad he drank a glass of wildfire, hey I need to hook you up with my sister, if we could only find her. Illyrio tells him that that sounds great, I'll look for her and you get yourself to King's Landing and make Aerys super paranoid.

Illyrio searches high and low and finds Serra (still in the ship?). He marries her, she gets pregnant and they have a kid. I assume that her pregnancy isn't a big secret at the time? Or is it? Varys visits his nephew, tells Illyrio that the kid has Rhaegar's eyes, and then says how about we pretend that he's not your kid but he's Rhaegar's kid, and then we'll get ourselves a Septon, a guy who was almost a maester, and Connington to teach the kid how to be a king. You use your mother's Blackfyre connections to get the Golden Company on board and while we're at it let's use Rhaegar's siblings as patsies, so Dorne can't use them to put them back on the throne?

I guess it's no weirder than any of the other possibilities, but what about the whole, Illyrio and his wife has a kid and all of a sudden, the kid goes from being Illyrio's kid, to not being Illyrio's kid. Wouldn't that raise some awkward questions around Pentos? Or was this the plan before he got her pregnant, and he convinced her that if the kid was going to be a boy that we're going to pretend it's Rhaegar's kid? Or did he wait for her to die before they came up with this plan? Did only his servants know that she was pregnant and had a kid, and he trusts the servants not to gossip?

I´m sure there were a lot of rumors in Pentos about Illyrio´s wife, and possibly, his kid.

The tattered prince i´m sure knows them quite well. That is the way Dany will find out i think.

[Frey family reunion]

I´m sure there were a lot of rumors in Pentos about Illyrio´s wife, and possibly, his kid.

The tattered prince i´m sure knows them quite well. That is the way Dany will find out i think.

I'm not sure but hasn't the Tattered Prince been exiled from Pentos longer than Aegon has been alive?

[Lost Melnibonean]

So long as I am with you, though well, an old fat man must have his comforts, yes?

The fat man dabbed grease from his lips. I am an old man, grown weary of this world and its treacheries.

I told you, my little friend, not all that a man does is done for gain. Believe as you wish, but even fat old fools like me have friends, and debts of affection to repay.

How old do you think Illyrio is? I think he might be 50-60. It may even possible that he fought at the Wot5PK. Maybe he was 16 and just like his statue in the garden during Wot5PK.

I've always assumed that Varys and Illyrio were of an age, with Illyrio perhaps being just a few years older.

We know that Aerys heard of Varys after Duskendale and before the Tourney at Harrenhal, which was in 281, leaving a four-year window for Varys' s arrival in KL.

Keep in mind everybody past 50 is described as old or assigned an approximate age. Notwithstanding Illyrio's self referrences, neither Varys nor Illyrio are described as old by others and Illyrio's chest hair is yellow suggesting that he is under 50.

And both men had distinguished themselves by the time Varys came to KL in 277-280. If both men were in their late 40s in 300 each would have been in their mid 20s in 277.

[Ser Oromus Locke]

Basically the only thing that confused me with this was the Osgrey/Webber-analogy:

LordToo-Fat and I were having a discussion that led to a potentially neat catch. As you know, Lady Gwyn was inquiring about whether or not we might have the Blackfyre/Brightflame lineages mixed up. LT-F asked if there was even anything linking Varys to the Blackfyres. I responded that in TSS we get a lot of Blackfyre talk + House Webber with its spider sigil, to which he replied:

And how does the Osgrey-Webber feud get resolved? They unite their Houses via marriage! Osgreys were Blackfyre supporters, and Ser Eustace ends up marrying the lady spider, which could be seen as an analog for Varys' sister. Naturally, the Webbers supported House Targaryen during the Blackfyre Rebellion. [Added by OP: As the user Paperwaver pointed out: Lord Osgrey was a lot older then Lady Webber. Just like House Blackfyre is older than Aerion's line]

Something else that occurred to me is that Osgrey and Webber ended up fighting over water. There were hard feelings for a long time prior, but the first blood is spilled over the dam that Lady Rohann had built. In other words, the water that was being denied to the Osgreys by House Webber.

Let's look at the first Blackfyre Rebellion. Though there was bitterness between the two sides beforehand, the "straw that broke the camel's back," according to GRRM, was when Daeron II arranged the marriage of Daenerys to the Prince of Dorne. And what did Maron Martell do to commemorate the marriage? He built Daenerys the Water Gardens. Daemon Blackfyre was denied his water Daenerys.

What this looks like to me is nearly perfect symbolism. Osgrey = (Daemon) Blackfyre. Webber = (Daeron II) Targaryen. Water = Daenerys.

Osgrey = Daemon Blackfyre -> Illyrio

Webber = Daeron II Targaryen -> Varys/Serra

Water = Daenerys -> Iron Throne?

Or is this analogy just to ascertain the coincidence of Illyrio and and Varys teaming up (as to showcase Blackfyre and Targaryen-supporters marrying into eachothers houses), and the possibility of Varys' Brightflame+Webber-heritage? So what? House Webber alligned for Daeron II and thus afterwards house Webber was allowed to marry into the royal family, but presumably only to a second son: Aerion. Aerion had an infant son, who was passed over for kingship due to infancy, which led to Egg assuming the throne.

Conclusion being that the infant son could've become Varys' father in Lys? Making Varys a quarter BrightflameTarg, a quarter Webber, and half Lyseni? Okay then.

Then, is there any chance that Shiera could've had any involvement in the lineage of Varys/Serra? Her mother was from Lys as well, noble birth as well, be it an impoverished noble family.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

I'm not sure but hasn't the Tattered Prince been exiled from Pentos longer than Aegon has been alive?

i don´t recall.. but could very well be so.Nevertheless the tattered prince is a link to Pentos quite interesting. I´m sure it will have some relevance for the future of Dany´s arc.

[Veltigar]

The Windblown were founded by tatters 30 years ago. Before that he had fought with other companies. He's passed 60 and he fled Pentos when he was 23 years old. It's unlikely that Varys and Illyrio were already in Pentos.

I would personally estimate that Varys and Illyrio are between 40 and 50, with Illyrio being the elder of the two. I think Lost Melnibonean has puth forth enough compelling evidence for that. It also makes sense for them to be that old for we don't seem to have much men in their age range (Mace Tyrell and Oberyn. Most of the others are either older or younger).

However, I do think there is some bad blood from tatters toward Illyrio. Not only is Illyrio a very powerful magister, a class TP obviously despises, but there is also the matter of his first wife. It wouldn't surprise me if GRRM reveals that the woman Illyrio married was related to TP somehow (like a daughter or a niece).

But even if that isn't true the Prince will spoil the fun for Illyrio quite a bit. He seems to have kept tabs on the place and he'll probably reveal something about Illyrio's shady past and the fact that he dabbles in the slavetrade.

[Veltigar]

I've had that idea that Steffon was searching for a legitimate heir of Aerion to wed Rhaegar. Tywin probably had his own agenda. I like idea about the Ship too. Here's the relevant passage from Clash...

"I was an orphan boy apprenticed to a traveling folly. Our master owned a fat little cog and we sailed up and down the narrow sea performing in all the Free Cities and from time to time in Oldtown and King's Landing.

"One day at Myr, a certain man came to our folly. After the performance, he made an offer for me that my master found too tempting to refuse. I was in terror. I feared the man meant to use me as I had heard men used small boys, but in truth the only part of me he had need of was my manhood. ..."

Any other clues there? Was the Ship, ei ther in Feast, Dance or Mercy, ever described as a cog? Was its master ever said to have performed in Oldtown, KL or Myr? Was the Ship ever said to have sailed about the Narrow Sea?

No ship descriptions IIRC correctly. Nor any mentions of other places the boat in 'mercy' visited. However, it was specifically noted that the boat had been docked there for '20 years'.

I think Tywin went there to look for a Brightflame bride as well. I guess that this mission was before Tyrion was born. At that time he might not have been to eager to wed Cersei to Rhaegar. Only after his search was unsuccesful he started planning a match between Cersei and Rhaegar.

[Veltigar]

Basically the only thing that confused me with this was the Osgrey/Webber-analogy:

Osgrey = Daemon Blackfyre -> Illyrio

Webber = Daeron II Targaryen -> Varys/Serra

Water = Daenerys -> Iron Throne?

Or is this analogy just to ascertain the coincidence of Illyrio and and Varys teaming up (as to showcase Blackfyre and Targaryen-supporters marrying into eachothers houses), and the possibility of Varys' Brightflame+Webber-heritage? So what? House Webber alligned for Daeron II and thus afterwards house Webber was allowed to marry into the royal family, but presumably only to a second son: Aerion. Aerion had an infant son, who was passed over for kingship due to infancy, which led to Egg assuming the throne.

Conclusion being that the infant son could've become Varys' father in Lys? Making Varys a quarter BrightflameTarg, a quarter Webber, and half Lyseni? Okay then.

Then, is there any chance that Shiera could've had any involvement in the lineage of Varys/Serra? Her mother was from Lys as well, noble birth as well, be it an impoverished noble family.

No Webber heritage was involved. Apart from the fact that there doesn't seem to be any available Webber women, there is the fact that the Webbers are way to low on the ladder to get a Targ match.

It's more that their conflict over water symbolizes the struggle between Blackfyre's and Targs for the IT. They then resolved this struggle by marrying one another, that way they would both get the biggest advantages instead of their domain falling to a cousin branch or the IT respectively.

They resolved their conflict by marrying one another. Just like Blackfyre and the Targ descended Briightflames did.

[Veltigar]

On the matter of Illryios age, if I had to speculate, I would imagine he is likely around 50. The reason why I think this is actually what I speculate about Septa Lemores/Serras age.

Many suscribe to the idea that she is Ashara, but I've just never been able to reconcile the age thing, because if Ashara was anywhere between Lyanna and Brandons age, she would be in her early to mid thirities if she were still alive.

Tyrion sees a woman he thinks is in her early to mid forties, and "handsome." If a woman looks eight to ten years older, she is not going to be handsome, however, if she actually looks younger than she is, she has aged gracefully and more likely to be "handsome," so I speculate that Septa Lemore is around 45 to 48 years herself.

Even if she did have Young Griff later than most women of the time, it still makes sense, because if she has been in a pillow house most of her youth, she likely drank her tea to deliberately keep from concieving.

I also foung this passage interesting from aDwD, Tyrion III:

"Tyrion wakes to find himself alone in IIIryios's litter and hears voices. Outside, Illyrio is talking to two men named Haldon, also called the Halfmaester, and Ser Rolly Duckfield, who goes by Duck. They transfer supplies from Illyrio's baggage train to their pack horses. As they work, Illyrio asks after a boy, reports in a sad voice that he has brought a bag of the boy's favorite sweets, and suggests that perhaps he could accompany them to Ghoyan Drohle for a farewell feast before he returns home. Haldon replies that Griff means to leave as soon as they return, for the Dothraki are on the move."

I to believe that Lemore is not Ashara. If Ashara is still alive she's chilling in the Neck with HR.

I believe that if Lemore is anyone worthy of note she's simply Serra. She would be the right age, has some interesting physical traits (birthmarks, her eyes are never described IIRC and her beauty), she's comfortable with nudity (a result of her unhappy childhood) and she's loyal to Aegon.

Her death would simply be a cover story to allow her to be closer to her son without arousing suspicion. It would also be a suitable hint to Faegon's unimportance in the grand skeme of things. All our very important protagonists have a deceased mother in common.

[Veltigar]

Interesting thoughts. Do you think the finding of Serra "in a Lysene pillow house" is true? Does it factor into this? Did Serra wind up in Lys, which seems like a semi-significant tie-in to Aerion Brightflame, or was Illyrio straight up lying about where he found her?

And I like the points Frey Family Reunion made above. How do we think Varys and Illyrio did meet? If the Brightfyre theory is fundamentally correct (and Veltigar, I would very much like it to be so) then it implies one of them (I would guess Varys) actively sought the other out to put this alliance together, and Illyrio's statement of "IDK why Varys picked me" was a lie (surprise!).

I think both Varys and Serra were born in Lys, were sold to the ship and went their way. When Varys retraced the ships steps they found Serra either on board (entertaining custoers) or that she was sold tona Lyseeni brothel. Both would still be correct.

As to the meeting. That depends on how much info Varys had on his own heritage and Illyrio's.

If he knew all about this heritage it's clear that he sought Illyrio out. The trouble is why didn't he do it sooner. That's why I think Varys did not have access to the full picture.

I think much of the origin story he told was therefore true (best lies are always rooted in truth). Varys was probably booted out of Myr by a competing thief. He sought Illyrio out for protection and only after a while they found out about their dragon connection.

It makes the most sense, Illyrio would probably be cagey about his parentage and Varys was sold at a young age. He probably only knew some tidbits, but eventually they clicked and he saw the bigger picture.

[Veltigar]

Illyrio searches high and low and finds Serra (still in the ship?). He marries her, she gets pregnant and they have a kid. I assume that her pregnancy isn't a big secret at the time? Or is it? Varys visits his nephew, tells Illyrio that the kid has Rhaegar's eyes, and then says how about we pretend that he's not your kid but he's Rhaegar's kid, and then we'll get ourselves a Septon, a guy who was almost a maester, and Connington to teach the kid how to be a king. You use your mother's Blackfyre connections to get the Golden Company on board and while we're at it let's use Rhaegar's siblings as patsies, so Dorne can't use them to put them back on the throne?

I guess it's no weirder than any of the other possibilities, but what about the whole, Illyrio and his wife has a kid and all of a sudden, the kid goes from being Illyrio's kid, to not being Illyrio's kid. Wouldn't that raise some awkward questions around Pentos? Or was this the plan before he got her pregnant, and he convinced her that if the kid was going to be a boy that we're going to pretend it's Rhaegar's kid? Or did he wait for her to die before they came up with this plan? Did only his servants know that she was pregnant and had a kid, and he trusts the servants not to gossip?

Illyrio's kid probably "perished" with his wife during the epidemic. Great thing about it is that loads of people die/disappear during an outbreak and nobody asks questions about it. Not even servants (and if they did, they could be disposed off. They are hardly more than slaves).

There was also no real plan. I suspect Faegon was born shortly after the death of real Aegon. Illyrio and Varys saw a chance and they took it.

The same goes for the inclusion of Connington and The Targ heirs. Varys and Illyrio's whole MO is opportunistic (that's why the fat man's plan keeps on changing), so they just saw chances to make Faegon appear more legitband attract allies.

[Lost Melnibonean]

No ship descriptions IIRC correctly. Nor any mentions of other places the boat in 'mercy' visited. However, it was specifically noted that the boat had been docked there for '20 years'.

I think Tywin went there to look for a Brightflame bride as well. I guess that this mission was before Tyrion was born. At that time he might not have been to eager to wed Cersei to Rhaegar. Only after his search was unsuccesful he started planning a match between Cersei and Rhaegar.

I would disagree. If Tywin were looking for a legitimate Brightflame descendant, he probably meant to "remove" her from Cersei's path or wed her to Jamie. If he'd found a boy...

[Lost Melnibonean]

I to believe that Lemore is not Ashara. If Ashara is still alive she's chilling in the Neck with HR.

I believe that if Lemore is anyone worthy of note she's simply Serra. She would be the right age, has some interesting physical traits (birthmarks, her eyes are never described IIRC and her beauty), she's comfortable with nudity (a result of her unhappy childhood) and she's loyal to Aegon.

Her death would simply be a cover story to allow her to be closer to her son without arousing suspicion. It would also be a suitable hint to Faegon's unimportance in the grand skeme of things. All our very important protagonists have a deceased mother in common.

I'm quite convinced she's the Mad Maid and Lord Hightower is in on the fAegon conspiracy.