The Brightfyre theory

[oursisthefury69]

@FreyFamilyReunion It's not even really worth picking out just one of your comments to quote, but way too completely avoid the debt of affection point. Your answer was basically a theoretical within a theoretical purely for arguments sake. Why would it make any more sense for Aegon to be Serra's son from some random sailor who porked her in a pillowhouse, instead of Illyrio's son. Basically you aren't even capable of refuting the minor evidence there is for Illyrio being the boys dad, so you twist it into "well what about a step-dad" so that you aren't wrong.

But hey I'm sure it makes more sense that the beyond rich and comfortable Illyrio Mopatis is risking his life in the Game of Thrones for his whore-house born "step-son"

[Frey family reunion]

@FreyFamilyReunion It's not even really worth picking out just one of your comments to quote, but way too completely avoid the debt of affection point. Your answer was basically a theoretical within a theoretical purely for arguments sake. Why would it make any more sense for Aegon to be Serra's son from some random sailor who porked her in a pillowhouse, instead of Illyrio's son. Basically you aren't even capable of refuting the minor evidence there is for Illyrio being the boys dad, so you twist it into "well what about a step-dad" so that you aren't wrong.

But hey I'm sure it makes more sense that the beyond rich and comfortable Illyrio Mopatis is risking his life in the Game of Thrones for his whore-house born "step-son"

1. Well the whole basis for Aegon being Illyrio's kid seems to be

a. Illyrio seems fond of Aegon

b. Why else would Illyrio do this if not for his biological son

c. Illyrio is fat and blonde.

2. As for subpoints 1 a and 1 b I merely pointed out alternative reasons that someone would care about a kid that is not his biological son, and try to put this particular kid on the throne.

Those reasons being affection for his mother, feeling like an adoptive father to the kid, and the kid himself is useful in gathering allies.

3. As for subpoint 1 c, I merely pointed out that his description does not really match the description of any other Targaryen (or Blackfyres) we've been told about. Thus, there is no reason that Aegon who does at least superficially resemble a Targaryen has to be related to Illyrio.

4. As for debt of affection, I already gave a hypothesis that he may be referring to other potential allies in his conspiracy which would be the Red Priests. If the Red Priests are his allies that would explain his otherwise inexplainable plan to bring Dany and the Golden Company together at the gates of Volantis.

5. There are some definite problems with everyone being one big happy family as well:

a. it seems awfully convenient that he (of the Blackfyre line) and Varys of the Brightflame line would just happen to get together.

b. The idea that Illyrio's biological son seems to work against what Illryio is currently planning.

1) You, a famous magister, go from being the kid's father to not being the kid's father?

2) You love this kid because he's your blood but the kid will go through his entire life having no attatchment to you becuse the kid believes he is someone else's son?

3) If you decide when all of this is said and done that you're just going to tell Aegon hey guess what, I'm your real father, isn't that going to possibly engender some resentment between you and your biological kid?

6. The idea that Aegon is the son of a Blackfyre prostitute and some no named father is much more interesting to me than this theory. It seems to fit Varys' philosophy much better than him championing the cause of a super hidden targaryen who is all the bloodlines of the hidden targaryens combined and really has a much better birthright than Dany. This kind of makes the symbolism of the black dragon rusted red meaningless, and it makes the visions of the mummer's dragon and the puppet dragon being paraded in front of the cheering crowds meaningless as well.

7. The idea of Aegon being a bastard child also has a nice parallel to the start of House Blackfyre.

8. If Aegon is paired up with Arianne, it also gives a nice dynamic of the descendant of Danaerys Targaryen I finally being paired up with the descendant of Daemon Blackfyre. Intermingling all this Brightflame stuff just mucks this up as well.

9. Finally, lord forbid someone give some alternative viewpoints to actually debate and talk about as opposed to a thread where everyone just tells you what a great theory you have. That just seems like boring reading to me.

[J. Stargaryen]

1. Well the whole basis for Aegon being Illyrio's kid seems to be

a. Illyrio seems fond of Aegon

b. Why else would Illyrio do this if not for his biological son

c. Illyrio is fat and blonde.

2. As for subpoints 1 a and 1 b I merely pointed out alternative reasons that someone would care about a kid that is not his biological son, and try to put this particular kid on the throne.

Those reasons being affection for his mother, feeling like an adoptive father to the kid, and the kid himself is useful in gathering allies.

3. As for subpoint 1 c, I merely pointed out that his description does not really match the description of any other Targaryen (or Blackfyres) we've been told about. Thus, there is no reason that Aegon who does at least superficially resemble a Targaryen has to be related to Illyrio.

4. As for debt of affection, I already gave a hypothesis that he may be referring to other potential allies in his conspiracy which would be the Red Priests. If the Red Priests are his allies that would explain his otherwise inexplainable plan to bring Dany and the Golden Company together at the gates of Volantis.

5. There are some definite problems with everyone being one big happy family as well:

a. it seems awfully convenient that he (of the Blackfyre line) and Varys of the Brightflame line would just happen to get together.

b. The idea that Illyrio's biological son seems to work against what Illryio is currently planning.

1) You, a famous magister, go from being the kid's father to not being the kid's father?

2) You love this kid because he's your blood but the kid will go through his entire life having no attatchment to you becuse the kid believes he is someone else's son?

3) If you decide when all of this is said and done that you're just going to tell Aegon hey guess what, I'm your real father, isn't that going to possibly engender some resentment between you and your biological kid?

6. The idea that Aegon is the son of a Blackfyre prostitute and some no named father is much more interesting to me than this theory. It seems to fit Varys' philosophy much better than him championing the cause of a super hidden targaryen who is all the bloodlines of the hidden targaryens combined and really has a much better birthright than Dany. This kind of makes the symbolism of the black dragon rusted red meaningless, and it makes the visions of the mummer's dragon and the puppet dragon being paraded in front of the cheering crowds meaningless as well.

7. The idea of Aegon being a bastard child also has a nice parallel to the start of House Blackfyre.

8. If Aegon is paired up with Arianne, it also gives a nice dynamic of the descendant of Danaerys Targaryen I finally being paired up with the descendant of Daemon Blackfyre. Intermingling all this Brightflame stuff just mucks this up as well.

9. Finally, lord forbid someone give some alternative viewpoints to actually debate and talk about as opposed to a thread where everyone just tells you what a great theory you have. That just seems like boring reading to me.

To a certain extent these are fair points. That said, you have been giving off a negative vibe in this thread of arguing for the sake of argument, imo. That includes your 'Black Pearl' theory, btw. It seems like you decided you didn't like this idea from the start and that was that. Personally, I usually find it annoying when someone acts like they just know a theory is wrong, yet is unable to advance that argument beyond the already known shortcomings of the theory in question. I doubt I'm the only one who feels that way.

Not to mention, I'm a bit surprised this theory is where you draw the line, considering some of the ideas you've presented to the community. I don't mean that as an insult, but you're usually game for a crackpot idea. What's the problem with this one, that it actually has some things going for it? I don't get it.

Anyway, I do think there are valid objections to the theory, I just don't think it's obvious that they render the theory incorrect. And on the contrary, nor do I believe that 'Brightfyre' is definitely correct, as I already stated. What I do believe to be true at this point is that Aerion Targaryen's line is mixed up in this, likely in the form of Varys and maybe Serra. I'm not sure if he/they are from the legitimate son line, or bastards.

Interestingly enough, and I think I mentioned this up thread, but assuming the OP is correct that Illyrio is a Blackfyre, he could theoretically have legitimized any Brightflame bastards under his own authority, as the king in exile. Or perhaps vice versa, if Varys viewed himself as the true king, assuming he's from the legitimate son line. This is akin to the 'Robb's will' argument about legitimizing Jon. People who support King Robb's authority would view Jon as the king. Period. Same for the Blackfyres.

[Frey family reunion]

To a certain extent these are fair points. That said, you have been giving off a negative vibe in this thread of arguing for the sake of argument, imo. That includes your 'Black Pearl' theory, btw. It seems like you decided you didn't like this idea from the start and that was that. Personally, I usually find it annoying when someone acts like they just know a theory is wrong, yet is unable to advance that argument beyond the already known shortcomings of the theory in question. I doubt I'm the only one who feels that way.

Not to mention, I'm a bit surprised this theory is where you draw the line, considering some of the ideas you've presented to the community. I don't mean that as an insult, but you're usually game for a crackpot idea. What's the problem with this one, that it actually has some things going for it? I don't get it.

Anyway, I do think there are valid objections to the theory, I just don't think it's obvious that they render the theory incorrect. And on the contrary, nor do I believe that 'Brightfyre' is definitely correct, as I already stated. What I do believe to be true at this point is that Aerion Targaryen's line is mixed up in this, likely in the form of Varys and maybe Serra. I'm not sure if he/they are from the legitimate son line, or bastards.

Interestingly enough, and I think I mentioned this up thread, but assuming the OP is correct that Illyrio is a Blackfyre, he could theoretically have legitimized any Brightflame bastards under his own authority, as the king in exile. Or perhaps vice versa, if Varys viewed himself as the true king, assuming he's from the legitimate son line. This is akin to the 'Robb's will' argument about legitimizing Jon. People who support King Robb's authority would view Jon as the king. Period. Same for the Blackfyres.

I actually like the thread and some of the analysis otherwise I wouldn't bother to post here. And yes I don't like the conclusion which is why I'm debating it, and I suppose which is why I give a "negative vibe" about the theory.

I actually had a similar negative attitude (initially) towards a Blackfyre thread (it may have been yours don't remember), but eventually the OP won me over through the course of the back and forth.

I actually thought my Black Pearl theory wasn't really crackpot, it just got disproven once we received more information, which is why I'm (relunctantly) leaning more towards Serra being Aegon's mother.

And yes I am open to more fantastical possibilities than most people on this board seem to be. I think when you have women giving birth to shadow babies, fire breathing dragons, skinchangers, ect ect I don't think it's completely out of line as long as it stays consistent with the spirit of the underlying magic in the series.

I think there are a number of posters who seem more comfortable with keeping the solutions to the book's mysteries as grounded as possible, and I admit that's never really been a concern of mine.

Now I do think that there is some weirdness going around with Illyrio and Varys that the typical "War of the Roses" parallels don't really address. Number one is cutting Varys private parts off putting them in a feiry brazier, and hearing a disembodied voice speaking with the "cutter". Number two is Illyrio keeping Serra's hands in his bedchamber, which in my opinion screams of Melisandre's comments that fingerbones are a good source in keeping the identity of the deceased for use in magical spells. I really don't think that this is some randomn detail that won't be addressed later on.

Also Tyrion's warning to Aegon to trust no one, makes me feel that this warning is going to be relevant as Aegon's (and I personally believe Arianne's) story line proceeds further.

I also feel that GRRM is subtly retelling a number of Greek myths especially through the Dornish and Essos tales.

I would be very disappointed if Aegon's storyline follows the fairly mundane journey that this thread seems to address. (sorry, I guess that was negative)

[TGR]

I think an even better question is how the heck did Varys not lose his head (no pun intended) after Robert's Rebellion? You would think one of the first persons to be executed would be the former King's spymaster, especially the one who told him not to open the city gates for the Lannisters.

It is also a good question but this answer might be "easy" to find.

The fact that Robert Baratheon (and Jon Arryn, lets no forget about him) tried to play the role of a conciliator (sort of) in the end of the war could be the answer. Or else, not only Varys but the Tyrells or Martells could also be gone (or at least take somebody as a hostage). Plus the fact that nobody knew exacly what the Lannisters would do until the sack of KL kind put him in a situation that he was not that wrong.

After all, he was an advicer to a king and maybe Robert saw him doing his job like a Maester would do. Plus, Robert and Eddard were not that happy about the Lannisters either. Can we tell that they trully trusted Tywin? I don't think so. So take out Varys to put somebody else (that could be from Lannister camp, they dont know) was not something to risk it. But I have no doubt that Varys also said what Robert wanted to hear and that helped him.

8. If Aegon is paired up with Arianne, it also gives a nice dynamic of the descendant of Danaerys Targaryen I finally being paired up with the descendant of Daemon Blackfyre. Intermingling all this Brightflame stuff just mucks this up as well.

To be honest the idea of a "nice dinamic" to a descendant of first Daenerys is almost the same as a Brightflame, except for one thing: Martells fought against Blackfyre. Plus, Brightflame "house" would be a cast out just like Blackfyre while Martells-Targaryens still in power.

I really dont like the idea that the main ideia to marry Arianne to Aegon is because would unite Daemon and Daenerys back. This is kind of silly. Off course that would happen, but if this plan is true, would be because of the power of the Martells into the game. Plus, if they are selling the idea that Aegon is Rhaegar son, Arianne would be related to his mom Elia, then making obvious the marriage.

[Frey family reunion]

It is also a good question but this answer might be "easy" to find.

The fact that Robert Baratheon (and Jon Arryn, lets no forget about him) tried to play the role of a conciliator (sort of) in the end of the war could be the answer. Or else, not only Varys but the Tyrells or Martells could also be gone (or at least take somebody as a hostage). Plus the fact that nobody knew exacly what the Lannisters would do until the sack of KL kind put him in a situation that he was not that wrong.

After all, he was an advicer to a king and maybe Robert saw him doing his job like a Maester would do. Plus, Robert and Eddard were not that happy about the Lannisters either. Can we tell that they trully trusted Tywin? I don't think so. So take out Varys to put somebody else (that could be from Lannister camp, they dont know) was not something to risk it. But I have no doubt that Varys also said what Robert wanted to hear and that helped him.

No one would have cared if Varys would have lost his head (once again no pun intended). Varys even admits that that no one would mourn his loss. So where is the concillatory benefit in sparing Varys, and what's worse, keeping him as the spymaster?

In reality, it really makes no sense, unless Varys was some sort of double agent perhaps with Arryn's knowledge and consent. But so far there has been nothing to suggest that. And of course the reason that you don't keep someone like Varys around is exactly what he's doing now, which is undermining the crown for his own benefit.

[TGR]

No one would have cared if Varys would have lost his head (once again no pun intended). Varys even admits that that no one would mourn his loss. So where is the concillatory benefit in sparing Varys, and what's worse, keeping him as the spymaster?

In reality, it really makes no sense, unless Varys was some sort of double agent perhaps with Arryn's knowledge and consent. But so far there has been nothing to suggest that. And of course the reason that you don't keep someone like Varys around is exactly what he's doing now, which is undermining the crown for his own benefit.

I do answer you not because I don't agree with you. In fact I find really strange as well. Like my first post, does not make any sense that he end up working for the paranoid king Aerys like he did. Keep working for the king Robert, that just kill it his last "boss" makes double non sense.

But again I will try to be "defend" him so the arguments keep going and (in this brainstorm) we all might find a solution (or plausible answer).

I am not sure about Arryn connection, but yeah, It might be true. However sucks that there is no evidence about that, for now. Once again, the only thing that could save Varys would be an "ace in the hole".

I posted before that the idea of a Targ bride in Lys could be from Varys. Maybe thats what made Aerys think "okay, this guy is good on what he does plus he seems really wanting to help me".

The thing is to really find the "ace in the hole" for Robert. The fact that Varys do not trust Tywin (or Lannisters) is enough? Or did Varys was the only one that could keep track of the remaining Targs, thats why Robert needed him close? I dont think so, but just putting ideas on the table.

Maybe Varys was taking care of Robert's bastard right from the start and that made him valiable for Robert?

[para]

May I ask what the hypothetical, narrative endgame/pay-off of this theory is going to be? So Aegon gets the IT, Westeros bends the knee to 'Rhaegar's son', Dany stays in Mereen, free beer for everyone.... And then Varys and Illyrio will come and be, like, 'LOL just kidding about Aegon being Rhaegar's kid!' and this will go over fine because turning him from the promised, resurrected son of Westeros second greatest king that never was into the son of fat foreigner and a prostitute will not be a problem at all?

Really?

On the other hand, if Varys and Illyrio do the smart thing and never ever let on that he is not Rhaegar's kid - how will the readers ever know? His Brightfyre-ness will be the proverbial tree that no one heard falling and it will never matter. Then what is the point?

Someone needs to explain how this will ever be revealed without handing the two smartest men in the room the idiot card.

[TGR]

May I ask what the hypothetical, narrative endgame/pay-off of this theory is going to be? So Aegon gets the IT, Westeros bends the knee to 'Rhaegar's son', Dany stays in Mereen, free beer for everyone.... And then Varys and Illyrio will come and be, like, 'LOL just kidding about Aegon being Rhaegar's kid!' and this will go over fine because turning him from the promised, resurrected son of Westeros second greatest king that never was into the son of fat foreigner and a prostitute will not be a problem at all?

Really?

On the other hand, if Varys and Illyrio do the smart thing and never ever let on that he is not Rhaegar's kid - how will the readers ever know? His Brightfyre-ness will be the proverbial tree that no one heard falling and it will never matter. Then what is the point?

Someone needs to explain how this will ever be revealed without handing the two smartest men in the room the idiot card.

Would GRRM pull the Kevan x Varys again? So the person who gets everything together get killed (Tyrion is an candidate of that, maybe)?

[Lost Melnibonean]

May I ask what the hypothetical, narrative endgame/pay-off of this theory is going to be? So Aegon gets the IT, Westeros bends the knee to 'Rhaegar's son', Dany stays in Mereen, free beer for everyone.... And then Varys and Illyrio will come and be, like, 'LOL just kidding about Aegon being Rhaegar's kid!' and this will go over fine because turning him from the promised, resurrected son of Westeros second greatest king that never was into the son of fat foreigner and a prostitute will not be a problem at all?

Really?

On the other hand, if Varys and Illyrio do the smart thing and never ever let on that he is not Rhaegar's kid - how will the readers ever know? His Brightfyre-ness will be the proverbial tree that no one heard falling and it will never matter. Then what is the point?

Someone needs to explain how this will ever be revealed without handing the two smartest men in the room the idiot card.

It doesn't have to be revealed or confirmed explicitly. There are several ways it can play out. And in any event the theory doesn't require Daenerys to remain in Essos. In fact the George has already told us to look for a new dance and the hints are clear it will be Daenerys vs Aegon.

[oursisthefury69]

@FreyFamilyReunion Well i certainly don't have the time or good reason to read all of those points, some of which aren't even actual responses to what you quoted me on, and are just your own takes on what you find unique about the Blackfyre situation; others about things far less provable /supportable than this (I.e Illyrio being aligned with the red priests) which is basically fanfiction.

Also "I simply pointed out alternative reasons that someone would care about a kid that is not there son" .... I get that champ, that's exactly my point actually if you'd properly read what you quoted me on; obviously there's some possible, abstract reasons he could (or anybody for that matter) "care" about a kid that isn't his biological son, but it's a lot less likely ergo arguing for arguments sake, which I'm now realizing isn't the actual case after seeing how much you just wrote in that response and you genuinely believe in whatever your talking about

[Frey family reunion]

@FreyFamilyReunion Well i certainly don't have the time or good reason to read all of those points, some of which aren't even actual responses to what you quoted me on, and are just your own takes on what you find unique about the Blackfyre situation; others about things far less provable /supportable than this (I.e Illyrio being aligned with the red priests) which is basically fanfiction.

Also "I simply pointed out alternative reasons that someone would care about a kid that is not there son" .... I get that champ, that's exactly my point actually if you'd properly read what you quoted me on; obviously there's some possible, abstract reasons he could (or anybody for that matter) "care" about a kid that isn't his biological son, but it's a lot less likely ergo arguing for arguments sake, which I'm now realizing isn't the actual case after seeing how much you just wrote in that response and you genuinely believe in whatever your talking about

Well I can't argue with that, ergo you win.

[The Night's Prince]

Aerion was and always will be a true Targaryen he just fashioned himself as Brightflame out of douche baggery but he was still a Targaryen who had legitimate claim to the throne.

[ladysnowheart]

wow!

mind blowing thread

convinced me!

[Mithras]

May I ask what the hypothetical, narrative endgame/pay-off of this theory is going to be? So Aegon gets the IT, Westeros bends the knee to 'Rhaegar's son', Dany stays in Mereen, free beer for everyone.... And then Varys and Illyrio will come and be, like, 'LOL just kidding about Aegon being Rhaegar's kid!' and this will go over fine because turning him from the promised, resurrected son of Westeros second greatest king that never was into the son of fat foreigner and a prostitute will not be a problem at all?

Really?

On the other hand, if Varys and Illyrio do the smart thing and never ever let on that he is not Rhaegar's kid - how will the readers ever know? His Brightfyre-ness will be the proverbial tree that no one heard falling and it will never matter. Then what is the point?

Someone needs to explain how this will ever be revealed without handing the two smartest men in the room the idiot card.

Well, once the "true" Targaryens are completely wiped out and Aegon sits on the IT, he can gladly use the surname Targaryen and carry on with that. After all, their claim depends on Aegon IV Targaryen and his predecessors. As long as their bloodline is on the IT, I don't think Varys and Illyrio will give three figs to whether their surname will be Blackfyre or Targaryen. This is one of the key points in their conspiracy.

As for the readers, I am leaning towards the idea that GRRM will not make it clear that Aegon is fake. The most fitting historical figure to Aegon (Perkin Warbeck as discussed in the forum in several threads) is still disputed whether he was real or an impostor. I think GRRM will give clues like the ones already given and leave it there.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Well, once the "true" Targaryens are completely wiped out and Aegon sits on the IT, he can gladly use the surname Targaryen and carry on with that. After all, their claim depends on Aegon IV Targaryen and his predecessors. As long as their bloodline is on the IT, I don't think Varys and Illyrio will give three figs to whether their surname will be Blackfyre or Targaryen. This is one of the key points in their conspiracy.

As for the readers, I am leaning towards the idea that GRRM will not make it clear that Aegon is fake. The most fitting historical figure to Aegon (Perkin Warbeck as discussed in the forum in several threads) is still disputed whether he was real or an impostor. I think GRRM will give clues like the ones already given and leave it there.

Yeah I agree. IMO Aegon is going to die from dragon encounter. His Targ blood would be so diluted by now, like Quentyn, that the Dragons will not acknowledge him as having the blood of the dragon. That will be the final proof of who he is.

But you are right at this point he is leading the GC as Rhaegar's son, which is a very smart way to actually win a Blackfyre rebellion. Because if they were storming Westeros under the Blackfyre name then they would have so many negative taints already associated with them. Coming back under the TArgaryen name gives them an easy 'in' to KL. Of courser they are not doing Aerion any honor by using Targaryen instead of Blackfyre, but if that is the only sacrifice I think Varys and Illyrio are ok with it.

[TGR]

Yeah I agree. IMO Aegon is going to die from dragon encounter. His Targ blood would be so diluted by now, like Quentyn, that the Dragons will not acknowledge him as having the blood of the dragon. That will be the final proof of who he is.

But you are right at this point he is leading the GC as Rhaegar's son, which is a very smart way to actually win a Blackfyre rebellion. Because if they were storming Westeros under the Blackfyre name then they would have so many negative taints already associated with them. Coming back under the TArgaryen name gives them an easy 'in' to KL. Of courser they are not doing Aerion any honor by using Targaryen instead of Blackfyre, but if that is the only sacrifice I think Varys and Illyrio are ok with it.

I think they would be honoring Aerion because, even if we call him and his descendants Brightflame (this House dont exist), he was actually a Targaryen and seemed proud of it. Did you mean Daemon Blackfyre? I like to think that the Blackfyres knew they were in fact Targaryens. Their fight was about putting the true heir (in their mind) in the IT, not destroying the House Targaryen. But off course I am not sure about that since there are no evidence on all the rebellions (3 or 4 between Daemon II and Maelys).

It would be pretty cool to really found out if fAegon has the "drongblood" by taming a dragon but TPATQ show us that some dragonseeds (descendants of Targ bastards) could as well. So we all would not be so sure about the dilluted blood.

I wonder if fAegon really got kill by a dragon, how the Dance of Dragons 2.0 that GRRM mentions will happen. Maybe we will get R+L=J sooner than we think? Or will it have an wildcard like Brown Plumm?

[J. Stargaryen]

I think they would be honoring Aerion because, even if we call him and his descendants Brightflame (this House dont exist), he was actually a Targaryen and seemed proud of it. Did you mean Daemon Blackfyre? I like to think that the Blackfyres knew they were in fact Targaryens. Their fight was about putting the true heir (in their mind) in the IT, not destroying the House Targaryen. But off course I am not sure about that since there are no evidence on all the rebellions (3 or 4 between Daemon II and Maelys).

It would be pretty cool to really found out if fAegon has the "drongblood" by taming a dragon but TPATQ show us that some dragonseeds (descendants of Targ bastards) could as well. So we all would not be so sure about the dilluted blood.

I wonder if fAegon really got kill by a dragon, how the Dance of Dragons 2.0 that GRRM mentions will happen. Maybe we will get R+L=J sooner than we think? Or will it have an wildcard like Brown Plumm?

Aegon II's storyline in TPatQ made me consider that the same could happen to fAegon. That is, getting injured and being off page for a while, only to end up as king in the end. Though Aegon II's reign wasn't anything to write home about. After all, it's not inconceivable that both Dany and Jon could wind up dead dealing with the Others.

[Veltigar]

Man, I have been unable to prperly focus on this thread for a while and then I return to this.

Some quick responses:

Why was Varys spared?

1) In one of the first books there is a line about sacking Janos Slynt. Bobby B decided to keep him on, even after he was all but found guilty of taking bribes. His argument, IIRC was that it's better to have an known rogue, than an unknown one (since they all steal).

2) Varys was a very effective spymaster. After the loss of the Targs he was without friends and in dire need of a new master. Appointing him meant that there wouldn't be a Lannister crony appointed in his place.

3) symbolic value: nobody in Westeros cared about the person Varys, but by sparing him Bobby B showed that under his reign Former Targ loyoalists could still get back on top.

4) Varys perhaps persuaded the rebels that he did not in fact serve the Targs but that he wanted to serve the realm.

5) most likely: GRRM just didn't think it through. That happens IIRC GRRM did not think off an explanation about why Jaqen resided in the Black cells. He just needed him there and so that happened.

The endgame:

Varys and Illyrio just want a Brightfyre on the IT. It doesn't matter that he isn't called Blackfyre because:

1) Illyrio has already expressed his view of the Westerosi sigils. He thinks that they are ridiculous and he actually pokes fun at their expense. At the same time he expresses his belief in the GC, because 'some contracts are written in blood'.

He obviously cares more about blood than about sigils. Varys, as someone who has been a mummer all his life, would probably share his views.

2) Aerion was a Targaryen. And I don't think that Daemon ever intended to keep the name Blackfyre after he had usurped the IT, he would have switched to use Wtargaryen. Combine that and you know why there descendants dont't care one fig about about public knowledge of the boy's heritage.

3) they can always tell Faegon in private.

4) I don't think that the name 'Blackfyre' has brought much luck to the BF clan. Illyrio is perhaps glad to get rid of it.

[Fat Trell]

The most likely explanation for why Varys wasn't executed, to me at least, is that he simply waited out the storm. The nastiness of the Sack probably resulted in more leniency for those that survived than was necessarily warranted.

The additional reasons of his apparent competence and perceived neutrality also likely played a role.