The Brightfyre theory

[Alia of the knife]

The other observation is if there has been a long term plan in place, he did show restraint with Dany, deliberately using a bedwarmer "to get it out of his system."

If he has demonstrated a precedent for sticking to "the plan," then it doesn't appear he would have interfered with Serra, and if he had, I don't think Varys would be implementing the plan with Illryio, no longer trusting his dicipline.

I think it was Varys who brought his sister, (if she is), to Illyrios attention to begin with.

[Alia of the knife]

It also makes a bit of sense then that Illryio would marry Dany to the horse lords hoping she and Viserys would not survive long, or at least be farther removed from the picture. The last remaining of the Targaryens.

Agreed.

[Aetta]

It also makes a bit of sense then that Illryio would marry Dany to the horse lords hoping she and Viserys would not survive long, or at least be farther removed from the picture. The last remaining of the Targaryens.

Yes, but why then didn't Varys & Illyrio just arrange to have Vis & Dany take a long walk off a short plank? Give Jorah immediate pardon if he takes them out at the end of his sword? Why give her eggs that are worth a fortune? That argument for sure has its own thread(s) here, so I don't mean to ponder on that. If Varys means to reunite the three heads-Targaryan trueborn, legitimized Blackfyre, and Brighflame refugee, well, there might be a slight chance there is something to that. Varys could have lied to Robert about Dany's whereabouts I suppose, but he didn't. Instead, Viserys and Dany were on the run from what they perceived as real danger.

There's something funky to it, for sure. If Varys meant for Aerys to find Serra, but was cool with Illyrio changing the plan, it smacks of the same thing-playing both sides of the field. Plausible deniability, lies between Varys & Illyrio, spider prophecies.....something.

Varys the Norn, he is. I might as well believe that he has spun this web for the express purpose of making sure Rhaegar met Lyanna and Dany had her dragons. No evidence of it, but (pun warning) I am hanging by a thread, here.

[Lady Beyond the Wall]

Also, just to say, Aegon could really be his name. Even if he is "Brightfyre" then Aegon IV would be his great great grandad (? Not sure I got that right, but just saying he could still be named Aegon. Regardless that is insignificant).

I am thinking on Dorne's involvement in the long term plan. If Arianne was meant to marry Viserys, then Quentyn to Daenerys, now Arianne to Aegon. Thinking on how that fits....

[Alia of the knife]

Yes, but why then didn't Varys & Illyrio just arrange to have Vis & Dany take a long walk off a short plank? Give Jorah immediate pardon if he takes them out at the end of his sword? Why give her eggs that are worth a fortune? That argument for sure has its own thread(s) here, so I don't mean to ponder on that. If Varys means to reunite the three heads-Targaryan trueborn, legitimized Blackfyre, and Brighflame refugee, well, there might be a slight chance there is something to that. Varys could have lied to Robert about Dany's whereabouts I suppose, but he didn't. Instead, Viserys and Dany were on the run from what they perceived as real danger.

There's something funky to it, for sure. If Varys meant for Aerys to find Serra, but was cool with Illyrio changing the plan, it smacks of the same thing-playing both sides of the field. Plausible deniability, lies between Varys & Illyrio, spider prophecies.....something.

Varys the Norn, he is. I might as well believe that he has spun this web for the express purpose of making sure Rhaegar met Lyanna and Dany had her dragons. No evidence of it, but (pun warning) I am hanging by a thread, here.

Good points, but I think they really thought they wouldn't survive the Dothraki, especially the fearful, furtive Dany, but they underestimated her.

[Alia of the knife]

While there are some historical parallels between Aegon the Unworthy and John of Gaunt, (who did eventually marry his mistress, Kathryn Swynford), it was the legitmization of the bastard lines that kicked off later wars of succession.

And Margaret Beaufort, (Serra?), mother of Henry VII, was a descendant of such a line, though there was supposedly a ban in place to keep them out of the succession despite their being legitimized.

[FC_Lymond]

On Illyrio:

"When Young, Illyrio is a beautiful, slender bravo in soiled silks, living by his blade in Pentos. But his fortunes change when he becomes protector to a fugitive thief--a eunuch named varys who has been driven from Myr. Forming a partnership, Varys robs other theives of their takings while Illyrio offers to recover the stolen goods for a fee. Eventually their activities grow more ambitious, and they move from stealing goods to stealing secrets from the homes of the rich and pwerful. With their stolen wealth and secrets, Illyrio rises to become a magister of Pentos and is even wed to the maiden daughter of a cousin of the city's prince--although his true passion is for Serra, a concubine he finds in a Lynesse pillow house who later dies when the plague known as the grey death sweeps through the city."

I never knew that bolded part either, sounds a little bit like what is happening with Aegon being 'returned' to Westeros.

Discuss

That is a reference to Jonathon Wild, a figure from English history.

He was a very popular figure used in books of the time and The "Beggar's Opera"

[Lady Beyond the Wall]

So Dorne,

Are they involving the Martells for military gain? Doran must not really know who Aegon is. He was part of a plan to marry Arianne to Viserys, then sent Quentyn to Dany. Why do that if Aegon was the end game. So what could be gained by deceiving him....nothing but military support? Almost like Varys or Illryio is taking advantage of Doran's desire for vengeance for Elia and babes.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

So Dorne,

Are they involving the Martells for military gain? Doran must not really know who Aegon is. He was part of a plan to marry Arianne to Viserys, then sent Quentyn to Dany. Why do that if Aegon was the end game. So what could be gained by deceiving him....nothing but military support? Almost like Varys or Illryio is taking advantage of Doran's desire for vengeance for Elia and babes.

What makes you think Doran knows that Aegon is fake?

[Lost Melnibonean]

So who then would Illryio be? A schemer Varys met, or still a blackfyre? If Serra and Varys were Aerion's and Illryio a Blackfyre, and Illryio screwed it all up, would Varys have taken that with even more heat?

The basic tenents of the theory are that Aegon's father is Illyrio and he's a descendant of Daemon Blackfyre and Aegon's mother is Serra and she and Varys are siblings and they are descendants of Aerion Brightflame.

[Lost Melnibonean]

The fat man grew pensive. Daenerys was half a child when she came to me, yet fairer even than my second wife, so lovely I was tempted to claim her for myself. Such a fearful, furtive thing, however, I knew I should get no joy from coupling with her. Instead I summoned a bedwarmer and fucked her vigorously until the madness passed.

I think it is possible that the original plan was to marry Serra to Rhaegar and once they were married, apply the strategy of Cersei. They were going to pass their own Blackfyre child as Rhaegars legitimate heir.

However, Illyrio was much younger by that time. Out of impatience or jealousy or whatever else, he claimed Serra for himself, similar to how he thought of claiming Dany for himself later.

But Serra Brightflame plus Rhaegar would not produce a Blackfyre heir. In that scenario you'd need Serra to be the Blackfyre, no?

[Lost Melnibonean]

So Dorne,

Are they involving the Martells for military gain? Doran must not really know who Aegon is. He was part of a plan to marry Arianne to Viserys, then sent Quentyn to Dany. Why do that if Aegon was the end game. So what could be gained by deceiving him....nothing but military support? Almost like Varys or Illryio is taking advantage of Doran's desire for vengeance for Elia and babes.

Faking Aegon as Rhaegar's son gains Dorne and many others. Letting the top brass of the GC know the truth gets them the GC. Wedding Daenerys to Drogo gets them 10k to 50k Dothraki screamers.

[RedShirt47]

I think Illyrio was "good" to Dany and Vis so add credibility to their plans for Aegon. "Look we helped his Aunt and Uncle when we could, we're good little Targ supporters." But they were "good" to Dany and Vis in such a way that it appeared as helping but was actually getting them out of the way and probably permanantly.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I think Illyrio was "good" to Dany and Vis so add credibility to their plans for Aegon. "Look we helped his Aunt and Uncle when we could, we're good little Targ supporters." But they were "good" to Dany and Vis in such a way that it appeared as helping but was actually getting them out of the way and probably permanantly.

Well at first that's how it was, but after Viserys dies, I think Illyrio changes his mind again and decides it is worth while to keep Dany alive.

Don't forget after Drogo/Viserys die Illyrio is still very much keeping up with Dany. He sent Arstan and Belwas to her, along with 3 ships full of goods at her disposal.

[Ser Eric]

From what I can makeout Aegon (who I think is real) was Varys/Illyrio's main plan. Dany and Viserys weren't all that important until they decided to use them to get the Dothraki army on Aegon's side. All that changed later on of course...

[Mithras]

But Serra Brightflame plus Rhaegar would not produce a Blackfyre heir. In that scenario you'd need Serra to be the Blackfyre, no?

Rhaegar would not be producing anything. They were going to give him horns just like Robert and make their own bastards.

[raegal_targaryen]

veltigar could u provide information on the physicality of daemon blackfyres house and aerion brightflame. we know the blackfyres where more martial side of the family

[Frey family reunion]

I'm still not really convinced by this theory. It seems to be working from a desired endpoint, that Aegon is a Brightflame and a Blackfyre and then working backwards to try and justify it. There really is no evidence that Illyrio is a Blackfyre. He doesn't have physical features that are uniquely Valyrian, even his painted statue is of a blond haired youth, and not the silver-blond of the Valyrians. And his fondness for the Young Griff could simply stem from the fact that the boy may have spent the first years of his life being raised in Illyrio's manse. Illyrio could develop an attatchment that has nothing to do with biology. Jon Connington probably has a similar attatchment without a biological component.

Meanwhile, thee doesn't seem to be any evidence that Varys is related to Serra. There is nothing stated in Varys backstory that indicates that he has a sister, nor is there any description of Varys that seems to match Serra.

I agree that there is evidence that Griff may be a Blackfyre. I think that there is some "evidence" that Varys may be a descendant of Aerion (and while I believe this I must admit there really isn't very strong evidence for this). There really isn't any evidence that Serra is Griff's mother other than the process of elimination (i.e. there really aren't a whole lot of canidates).

And what works against this theory is Illyrio's fairly matter of fact statement that Maelys the monstrous was the last Blackfyre on the male line. Now granted he could mean the last Blackfyre who has an uninterupted paternal lineage from Daemon Blackfyre (or he could simply be lying). But it seems an odd comment to make from someone who would consider himself a male from the Blackfyre line with a male descendant (Griff).

As for the Sworn Sword analogy, the analogy would still work if Illyrio is a Blackfyre supporter (of which there are many from many different houses) as opposed to an actual Blackfyre descendant. In fact the analogy is a little more accurate in that scenario.

The theory also ruins one of my favorite subtle symbols in the books, that of the black iron dragon washed up on the Isle, rusted red. A dragon that appears red on the outside, yet is a black dragon in reality.

[J. Stargaryen]

I'm still not really convinced by this theory. It seems to be working from a desired endpoint, that Aegon is a Brightflame and a Blackfyre and then working backwards to try and justify it. There really is no evidence that Illyrio is a Blackfyre. He doesn't have physical features that are uniquely Valyrian, even his painted statue is of a blond haired youth, and not the silver-blond of the Valyrians. And his fondness for the Young Griff could simply stem from the fact that the boy may have spent the first years of his life being raised in Illyrio's manse. Illyrio could develop an attatchment that has nothing to do with biology. Jon Connington probably has a similar attatchment without a biological component.

Meanwhile, thee doesn't seem to be any evidence that Varys is related to Serra. There is nothing stated in Varys backstory that indicates that he has a sister, nor is there any description of Varys that seems to match Serra.

I agree that there is evidence that Griff may be a Blackfyre. I think that there is some "evidence" that Varys may be a descendant of Aerion (and while I believe this I must admit there really isn't very strong evidence for this). There really isn't any evidence that Serra is Griff's mother other than the process of elimination (i.e. there really aren't a whole lot of canidates).

And what works against this theory is Illyrio's fairly matter of fact statement that Maelys the monstrous was the last Blackfyre on the male line. Now granted he could mean the last Blackfyre who has an uninterupted paternal lineage from Daemon Blackfyre (or he could simply be lying). But it seems an odd comment to make from someone who would consider himself a male from the Blackfyre line with a male descendant (Griff).

As for the Sworn Sword analogy, the analogy would still work if Illyrio is a Blackfyre supporter (of which there are many from many different houses) as opposed to an actual Blackfyre descendant. In fact the analogy is a little more accurate in that scenario.

The theory also ruins one of my favorite subtle symbols in the books, that of the black iron dragon washed up on the Isle, rusted red. A dragon that appears red on the outside, yet is a black dragon in reality.

Except that if Illyrio is a Blackfyre, and he's Aegon's father, then Aegon would technically be a Blackfyre.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Rhaegar would not be producing anything. They were going to give him horns just like Robert and make their own bastards.

Gotcha. So Illyrio just couldn't wait to dip his wick in the wax?