Ukraine III: appropriate handling required

[E-Ro]

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/03/world/europe/ukraine-tensions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

What happens now? Is Ukraine fucked?

LOL dont read the comments section of this article

[Lyanna Stark]

That's not caution, that just plain good luck, because the winter has been surprisingly mild in many European countries. Some ares of Norway barely spotted any snow.

Eh, just because Scandinavia is located "in the north" on your map doesn't mean we all have feet of snow and professional skiers on our doorstep. A lot of the coasts of Scandinavia, especially the southern and western parts, don't necessarily suffer from very harsh winters. We CAN get drowned in snow, but it is by no means a must have. Hence being all "LOL not even Norway got snow everywhere" is a total piece of non news to us living in the area.

[KAH]

That's not caution, that just plain good luck, because the winter has been surprisingly mild in many European countries. Some ares of Norway barely spotted any snow.

No, I meant caution as in their reaction to Russia. The EU seems to have some leeway in re the gas situation (to luck or design, or more likely both), but does not seem eager to take a more aggressive stance towards Russia for all that.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

I think we should all be glad the Ukraine gave up its Nukes, so we don't have to worry about someone launching a few of them if/when Russian troops start storming their silo's. Although one does wonder if Russia would have taken this action if the Ukraine still had all of them.

[jurble]

Jerble,

Then why is he getting so much support from the Russian government?

Yeah, that's the problem I see with the "Putin has gone insane!" argument.

The Russian defence ministry has apparently denied reports that Russian forces gave an ultimatum to the Ukrainian troops in Crimea (see 15:58 entry). "This is utter nonsense", a spokesman for the Russian defence ministry told Vedomosti, a Russian broadsheet.

From the BBC. Apparently the Ultimatum isn't real according to the Russians.

A guy on 4chan claims to be some sort of intelligence officer from Lackland Airforce base or something. Says all the reports are that Russia is moving massive amounts of assets to the border.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Pebble,

Would Russia have set a toe outside their bases if the Ukrainians could have responded with nuclear weapons?

[E-Ro]

From the BBC. Apparently the Ultimatum isn't real according to the Russians.

A guy on 4chan claims to be some sort of intelligence officer from Lackland Airforce base or something. Says all the reports are that Russia is moving massive amounts of assets to the border.

I hope the ultimatum is not true, that being said I doubt it isnt. Although I really dont see what the russians would have to gain by lying about this, the truth will come out tomorrow either way.

Pebble,

Would Russia have set a toe outside their bases if the Ukrainians could have responded with nuclear weapons?

Probably not, the threat of nukes keeps everyone nice and submissive with each other. Of course, Ukraine giving up their nukes is a good thing imo, its just too bad the guy in charge of russia is an asshole.

If fighting breaks out I wonder what the consequences would be for everyone. I mean, would we(the united states) and the UK step in with military force?

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Pebble,

Would Russia have set a toe outside their bases if the Ukrainians could have responded with nuclear weapons?

That's kind what I said.

I think Russia would have been more careful. and I don't think they would have "invaded" yet. but I do think they would have been very quick to mobiles to secure any nukes if the the Ukraine looked like it was going to dissolve into civil war.

[Werthead]

The 'ultimatum' thing might well have been issued by the head of the Black Sea Fleet on his own authority, which would presumably mean he's far exceeding his orders. Kiev have confirmed that they received the ultimatum as well.

Something Russia is making a lot of is calling the Ukrainian soldiers their brothers, showing Russian and Ukrainian soldiers shaking hands through the fences etc. It would be a bit odd to show them massacring them 12 hours later, especially when it's not necessary: if Russia takes de facto control of Crimea, they can then negotiate the release of the soldiers (presumably leaving all of their military equipment behind).

Eh, remaining an "economic buffer"? The long-term smart answer would be going with the EU, the short- and medium term smart answer would be going into customs union with Russia et al.

What does remaining an economic buffer mean? "We agree to remain an economic backwater until our neighbours can resolve their differences, however many decades that will take."

I can understand keeping NATO at an arm's length, but if Ukraine can't even explore economically beneficial options westwards, the people "in charge" in Kiev might as well bow their necks for Moscow and take what's offered from there anyway.

What I meant is that Ukraine could remain apart from both the customs union and EU, and trade with both. However, you are quite correct: Ukraine, as a sovereign nation, should be able to make decisions in its best interests without worrying about what its neighbour thinks of it. In terms of realpolitik, taking a more neutral road might have been wiser for keeping a calm lid on the situation. But Ukraine shouldn't have to do that forever. It's been a sovereign nation for almost a quarter of a century now, it should be able to move on from its Soviet, Russian-aligned past.

[Lummel]

More optimism here:

The west has already begun to threaten Russia with political and economic isolation, but this stems from a misunderstanding of the nature of Putin’s power. For example, Western analysts say that “Russia will not invade Crimea because Russia’s economy is in bad shape and this would only weaken it further.” They are mistaken. Putin no longer needs economic growth. He has grasped the contradiction between economic growth and the consolidation of his own power, and he has made his choice. He understands very well that in 2011-2012 it was the most economically active and wealthy segments of the population that protested against him. He understands that millions of entrepreneurs and workers of the knowledge economy had already emigrated to the US and European Union during his reign. And he understands that a solution that simultaneously halts economic growth and strengthens the patriotism of the poorest segments of the population is an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone.

“Russia will not invade Crimea because there are insufficient medical units within the army groups which conduct exercises on the border with Ukraine,” write western analysts. Once again, this is western logic, through which it is very difficult to understand that, in order to secure personal power, gain territory and confirm superpower status, the lives of simple soldiers who will die from insufficient medical care can easily be sacrificed.

[The Iceman of the North]

Who are these "Western analysts"? Everything I've heard here is "we hope Russia wont escalate further, but based on past behaviour there's no telling what they actually will do".

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Lummel,

From your linked article:

The same goes for isolation. Isolation is beneficial to Putin. He would gladly introduce exit visas, like the USSR had, in order to prevent the most active citizens from travelling to Europe and the US to see what life is like there. The EU and the US banning Russians from having foreign bank accounts and owning real estate spares him having to adopt unpopular laws to “de-offshore-ise” the elite. What could be better for uniting the offended and the humbled around the leader? Economic sanctions? An excellent way to demonstrate to Russia’s population that the US and EU are enemies who sincerely wish them ill.

Wow, that's just insidious.

[Dinsdale!]

To play Russia's advocate on this:

If you are Russia, how can you feel happy about virulent anti-Russians gaining control of a neighboring country by coup. And if you feel it's your obligation to protect ethnic Russians in foreign countries, how comfortable are you with that regime ruling over all of the Ukraine. Russia seems totally evil, until you remember that the current Ukrainian government includes fascists.

The Ukraine is essentially a buffer state between Poland and Russia. Poland has a history of war with Russia.

Instead of managing to agree about this on both Belarus and Ukraine, the west and Russia have been dicking around over those two countries. Securitization fears that spin out of control...

I really hope Russia doesn't invade Eastern Ukraine. Poland has a rather large army, and I think they might intervene in that case. And they are in NATO...

[Fez]

So, someone walking into No. 10 Downing wasn't very careful at covering up their papers, and a photograph of the top page says that the UK won't support trade sanctions against Russia at this time. Although its unclear what exactly the document is and whether it's suggestions or decisions. The visible bits are:

…should include wider suspension of contacts and ….. e.g. EU-Russia formats. NATO-Russia Council…. Russia from G8. Visa restrictions/travel bans on key [unreadable]. But UK should not support, for now, trade sanctions …. or close London’s financial centre to Russians.

> ….should be contingent and used for private messaging …. Public statements (e.g. FAC Conclusions) should stick to generic….

…for Ukraine: UK should

> Pursue Technical Assistance package, ideally jointly with German,

> …Government hard publicity to adopt the [5] political….

> …Deep and Comprehensive FTA.

> …contingency EU work on providing Ukraine with alternative gas supplies if Russia cuts them off.

Next steps: UK should

>Pursue deployment of OSCE and/or UN (but not EU monitors to Crimea and Eastern Ukraine

>Push UN Secretary General Ban to take the lead in calling and creating a forum engaging Russia on Ukraine

>Accept a special European Council

>Discourage any discussion (e.g. NATO) of contingency military preparations

[E-Ro]

More optimism here:

Its a good thing Putin doesn't care about the economic consequences of this, because it looks like they are already starting to lose money. Their currency is losing value, and FAST.

Russian markets nosedive as Ukraine panic takes hold

Moscow (AFP) - Investors in Russia reacted with panic Monday to the potentially disastrous economic consequences of Russian military intervention in Ukraine, with Moscow stock markets crashing up to 12 percent and the ruble plunging to historic lows against the dollar and euro.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Dinsdale,

If Poland attacks Russians in Ukraine first without the consent of the NATO council I think they may be on their own if Russia responds with attacks on Poland. Not that I think leaving Poland to hang in the wind if Russia attacks is anything like a smart plan.

ETA

Hypothetically, if Russia were to attack the Baltic States does NATO have the deployable conventional military capacity to stop them from being overrun?

[Lummel]

Lummel,

From your linked article:

Wow, that's just insidious.

Some Russians have more experience in being pessimistic about their own governments. There's a certain logic to it, I suppose. I'm not sure how sustainable such a regime would be over time but then Putin's government hasn't much to offer the citizens beyond topless pictures of the president anyway.

[Galactus]

More optimism here:

Lack of medical care isn't about Russia caring about it's soldiers or anything like it: It's the fact that if you're going to fight a real battle you're going to need a lot of bandages simply becuase otherwise you'll run out of soldiers.

[Dinsdale!]

Dinsdale,

If Poland attacks Russians in Ukraine first without the consent of the NATO council I think they may be on their own if Russia responds with attacks on Poland. Not that I think leaving Poland to hang in the wind if Russia attacks is anything like a smart plan.

Oh definitely. But a Poland-Russia conflict is going to be difficult to stay out of.

And a little googling found this:

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20140303-706964.html

Poland's defense ministry said Monday there is no reason for the Polish army to react to the situation in Ukraine, as local media reported troop movements within Poland because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

The ministry denied the reports, saying troops were moving as part of routine training exercises.

"The number of training missions and the places where they are held have no relation to the current political and military situation in Ukraine," the ministry said in a statement. "In the current situation, there are no reasons to put Polish army units at a higher level of combat readiness."

If you believe that, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you.

[Lummel]

Lack of medical care isn't about Russia caring about it's soldiers or anything like it: It's the fact that if you're going to fight a real battle you're going to need a lot of bandages simply becuase otherwise you'll run out of soldiers.

Yes but from the point of view of the article's author Russia has more men than Ukraine, so they can take casualties and still 'win'. Also any dead become glorious sacrifices for the integrity of the Motherland to be honoured at the eternal flames burning across the nation etc etc. So that's a bonus too. The Kremlin doesn't have a record of having been moved by the protests of the mothers of the conscripts who died in recent wars.