Where will the Iron Born Strike next?

[Universal Sword Donor]

Remember that Dagmer took Torrhen's Square. Since Leobald Tallhart is called a very cautious and easily scared man, I doubt that Dagmer took it à la Theon taking Winterfell. They would have besieged the castle. TS isn't as strong as Oldtown, but it's proof that they have siege equipment.

It's possible they might have siege equipment. Of course we watched Theon take an undermanned WF with 80 ft and 100 ft respective walls by using grappling hooks and 17 men.

TS, on the other hand, has 30 foot walls and an equally tiny garrison since the Tallharts went with Rodrik to relieve WF. Dagmer also had a lot more men than Theon.

And we know how Dagmer feels about siege weapons:

“Stone walls cannot be fired. How are we to take them? We do not have the numbers to storm even a small castle.”

“You will make camp outside their walls and set to building catapults and siege engines.”

“That is not the Old Way. Have you forgotten? Ironmen fight with swords and axes, not by flinging rocks. There is no glory in starving out a foeman.”

So they can't storm the castle. They can't/won't use siege engines. They won't starve them out.

That pretty much just leaves the grapples and stealth along with doubling down on the Northerner's first mistake. Given that the IB were scattered by Rodrik's charge(s), I don't think it's much of a stretch to go with the old way.

[aryagonnakill#2]

It's possible they might have siege equipment. Of course we watched Theon take an undermanned WF with 80 ft and 100 ft respective walls by using grappling hooks and 17 men.

TS, on the other hand, has 30 foot walls and an equally tiny garrison since the Tallharts went with Rodrik to relieve WF. Dagmer also had a lot more men than Theon.

And we know how Dagmer feels about siege weapons:

“Stone walls cannot be fired. How are we to take them? We do not have the numbers to storm even a small castle.”

“You will make camp outside their walls and set to building catapults and siege engines.”

“That is not the Old Way. Have you forgotten? Ironmen fight with swords and axes, not by flinging rocks. There is no glory in starving out a foeman.”

So they can't storm the castle. They can't/won't use siege engines. They won't starve them out.

That pretty much just leaves the grapples and stealth along with doubling down on the Northerner's first mistake. Given that the IB were scattered by Rodrik's charge(s), I don't think it's much of a stretch to go with the old way.

That's Dagmer and Balon and Aeron, not Euron.

[Universal Sword Donor]

That's Dagmer and Balon and Aeron, not Euron.

So they are going to build siege engines not knowing how to use them?

[Veltigar]

The Reach is in for a big defeat. And when I say big, I mean gigantic. Euron will cursh them completely, causing the downfall of House Tyrell (Alongside the developments at Margaery's trial that is). The Tyrells, and the Reach in general, are to powerful at the moment. And their powerblock stands in the way of Faegon, who needs to be set up as a credible threat to Daenerys.

The big defeats in the Reach will work as a major catalyst to the whole Dance of Dragons storyline. The powervaccuum created by the downfall of the Tyrells will set everything in motion. Firstly, the opportunity to exploit the powervaccuum will compell Faegon to give up on his plans to marry Daenerys. Instead, he'll take Arianne as his bride, which will give him the Dornish spears. With both the Golden Company and the Dornish supporting him, as well as his (so far) glowing military trackrecord (conquering SE), the Lords and Ladies of the Reach will flock to him in order to pledge allegiance. They'll see him as a saviour send to deliver them from Euron.

So how will Euron dish out his crushing blows? I think it will go like this. First, the Redwyne Navy will be dealt with. This will not be done with strictly military means. Euron will probably resort to using his captured Qarthinian warlocks. GRRM has said we will get to know what happened to Pyat Pree and companions. I bet that, after being forced to eat one of their own, the other warlocks are more than willing to help Euron with his schemes. They'll take out the fleet somehow (create a storm or a tsunami or whatever).

The next step imo is Oldtown. Remember that in AFFC, a couple of Ironborn were captured trying to get into the city, that shows you how Euron wants to take this city, by guile. There are two candidates for delivering the city to Euron. The first is Faithful Urswyck. As you may recall, he was one of the Brave Companions (lieutenant to Vargo himself if IIRC) and he led a bunch of his fellow mercenaries to Oldtown. They probably enlisted in Lord Hightowers army as soon as the trouble started and they realized that they had no chance of boarding a ship out of there.

Now, imagine what would happen if these former members of the Brave Companions were given, say, a gate to protect at night. And then imagine a representative of Euron promising them a big bag of gold dragons for - you know - forgetting to close that gate one night. He wouldn't need many Ironborn to secure the area around the gate and once they are inside, there is no stopping the Ironborn, especially if they didn't need to fight their way in. The cities strongest defenses would be utterly meaningless and heavy cavalry, which is the Hightower biggest advantage against the Ironborn, is notoriously unsuited for fighting inside a city. That would totally level the playingfield and with the surprise effect, there is no question whatsoever that the Ironborn would succeed.

Another candidate for letting the Ironborn in is Jaqen H'qar. There is already one (rogue) FM working for Euron (imo the Dusky Woman), why couldn't there be a second one. Jaqen could easily kill some guards and open a gate. Even if Jaqen didn't work for Euron, there is a big chance he'll let the Ironborn in. He's almost certainly after the book that contains the secrets about killing dragons. That must be one of the citadels most prized and most fiercely protected treasures (otherwise he would have taken it long ago), what better diversion to steal that book than to let the Ironborn in. In all the panic and mayhem, anything would be up for grabs.

Jaqen could even be working together with the Brave Companions. Come to think of it, that probably makes the most sense. Whether or not he's in league with Euron, he'll probably hire the Urswyck to take care of the gate, while he himself will try and steal the book when shit hits the fan.

The only strong Tyrell force in the Reach remaining would then be Garlan and company. Whatever happens then is anyone guess, but I think that Margaery's prediction in AFFC, that without the Redwyne fleet will be massacred without the Redwyne Navy when attempting to cross a large body of water will be true. Whether the Ironborn will destroy them while crossing the Honeywine or if they'll force them to cross the Mander somehow, I imagine that's where it will happen.

[Fire Eater]

I think it is Oldtown as Euron has been trying to find a way to attack that city. The plunder can be used to enrich themselves and finance their campaign. Also, taking the city would be felt all the way to KL. I think he will find a way, but he won't take the city.

My personal idea is that they sail around the redwyne fleet on the way back by going out of sight of land, then they assault king's landing now that the tyrell forces have all been drawn to the reach and are rooting out the last of the iron born. The iron born sack king's landing and Euron takes his seat on the iron throne, with open arms for Danny, who probably won't take the offer, and rightly so.

Except how would they get to KL without being seen? What about the large Tyrell army there? It is too risky, and Euron lacks the manpower and resources.

The Reach is in for a big defeat. And when I say big, I mean gigantic. Euron will cursh them completely, causing the downfall of House Tyrell (Alongside the developments at Margaery's trial that is). The Tyrells, and the Reach in general, are to powerful at the moment. And their powerblock stands in the way of Faegon, who needs to be set up as a credible threat to Daenerys.

I find that unlikely as the Ironmen lack the manpower and resources to crush the Tyrells. They are outnumbered, and there are armies along the Mander and at HG.

So how will Euron dish out his crushing blows? I think it will go like this. First, the Redwyne Navy will be dealt with. This will not be done with strictly military means. Euron will probably resort to using his captured Qarthinian warlocks. GRRM has said we will get to know what happened to Pyat Pree and companions. I bet that, after being forced to eat one of their own, the other warlocks are more than willing to help Euron with his schemes. They'll take out the fleet somehow (create a storm or a tsunami or whatever).

I don't think that will happen. GRRM likes to use magic sparingly.

The next step imo is Oldtown. Remember that in AFFC, a couple of Ironborn were captured trying to get into the city, that shows you how Euron wants to take this city, by guile. There are two candidates for delivering the city to Euron. The first is Faithful Urswyck. As you may recall, he was one of the Brave Companions (lieutenant to Vargo himself if IIRC) and he led a bunch of his fellow mercenaries to Oldtown. They probably enlisted in Lord Hightowers army as soon as the trouble started and they realized that they had no chance of boarding a ship out of there.

Now, imagine what would happen if these former members of the Brave Companions were given, say, a gate to protect at night. And then imagine a representative of Euron promising them a big bag of gold dragons for - you know - forgetting to close that gate one night. He wouldn't need many Ironborn to secure the area around the gate and once they are inside, there is no stopping the Ironborn, especially if they didn't need to fight their way in. The cities strongest defenses would be utterly meaningless and heavy cavalry, which is the Hightower biggest advantage against the Ironborn, is notoriously unsuited for fighting inside a city. That would totally level the playingfield and with the surprise effect, there is no question whatsoever that the Ironborn would succeed.

The Ironborn would have to get to that gate without being seen first. I think guard over the gate would be left to older, more seasoned veterans of the City Watch of Oldtown not a bunch of suspicious characters.

Another candidate for letting the Ironborn in is Jaqen H'qar. There is already one (rogue) FM working for Euron (imo the Dusky Woman), why couldn't there be a second one. Jaqen could easily kill some guards and open a gate. Even if Jaqen didn't work for Euron, there is a big chance he'll let the Ironborn in. He's almost certainly after the book that contains the secrets about killing dragons. That must be one of the citadels most prized and most fiercely protected treasures (otherwise he would have taken it long ago), what better diversion to steal that book than to let the Ironborn in. In all the panic and mayhem, anything would be up for grabs.

Jaqen could even be working together with the Brave Companions. Come to think of it, that probably makes the most sense. Whether or not he's in league with Euron, he'll probably hire the Urswyck to take care of the gate, while he himself will try and steal the book when shit hits the fan.

The only strong Tyrell force in the Reach remaining would then be Garlan and company. Whatever happens then is anyone guess, but I think that Margaery's prediction in AFFC, that without the Redwyne fleet will be massacred without the Redwyne Navy when attempting to cross a large body of water will be true. Whether the Ironborn will destroy them while crossing the Honeywine or if they'll force them to cross the Mander somehow, I imagine that's where it will happen.

Euron doesn't even know Jaqen is there, and Jaqen is under the guise of a pasty-faced boy, Pate. Someone I doubt Euron would entrust with killing guards at a gate. The Dusky Woman isn't a FM, IMO.

Jaqen parted ways with the Brave Companions when he left Harrenhal. FM work alone.

Not Garlan's army, but also Mace's and Tarly's armies are still there to aid the Reach.

I think Aegon will take care of the Ironborn at Oldtown.

[Good Guy Garlan]

My personal idea is that they sail around the redwyne fleet on the way back by going out of sight of land, then they assault king's landing now that the tyrell forces have all been drawn to the reach and are rooting out the last of the iron born. The iron born sack king's landing and Euron takes his seat on the iron throne, with open arms for Danny, who probably won't take the offer, and rightly so.

I like this.

When the news of the fall of Storm's End reach KL, Mace will have to send a significant part of his army to deal with that threat. I mean, he'd pretty much have to do it, as much as he wants to keep his army in the city until Margaery's trial. And that's the other thing: if she's declared guilty then the Faith and the rest of the Tyrell army would destroy one another, all while the Lannister forces get drawn to the carnage or go West (I think Cersei will flee to CR with Tommen, aided by Robert Strong).

And all that would leave the city defenseless and kingless. Enter Euron.

[Slender Aimry Hill]

I very much approve of the principle, if not necessarily the detail, of Veltigar's post. The Tyrells are presently the long-time favourites, the Ironborn (esp under King Euron) the wild card. Which makes the more interesting victor...?

[Tywin Lannister_]

Since I died, I've been rooting for Euron, so as long as he doesn't lose, I'm okay.

[Leonardo]

I think it is Oldtown as Euron has been trying to find a way to attack that city. The plunder can be used to enrich themselves and finance their campaign. Also, taking the city would be felt all the way to KL. I think he will find a way, but he won't take the city.

Except how would they get to KL without being seen? What about the large Tyrell army there? It is too risky, and Euron lacks the manpower and resources.

I find that unlikely as the Ironmen lack the manpower and resources to crush the Tyrells. They are outnumbered, and there are armies along the Mander and at HG.

I don't think that will happen. GRRM likes to use magic sparingly.

The Ironborn would have to get to that gate without being seen first. I think guard over the gate would be left to older, more seasoned veterans of the City Watch of Oldtown not a bunch of suspicious characters.

Euron doesn't even know Jaqen is there, and Jaqen is under the guise of a pasty-faced boy, Pate. Someone I doubt Euron would entrust with killing guards at a gate. The Dusky Woman isn't a FM, IMO.

Jaqen parted ways with the Brave Companions when he left Harrenhal. FM work alone.

Not Garlan's army, but also Mace's and Tarly's armies are still there to aid the Reach.

I think Aegon will take care of the Ironborn at Oldtown.

There are only around 10k men in KL of the Tyrells, and I just told how, they sail AROUND by going.out of sight of land like he did earlier in the story.

Also the tyrell host is encamped OUTSIDE of the city like the Lannister host was, and they also won't know the iron born are coming. They can close off the bay and storm the city after they take the tyrell host at KL unawares.

[AdmiralKyrd]

Euron was going to abandon the shield islands, taking the entire fleet off to Meereen and leaving only the wounded behind who couldn't travel to defend. Several captains voiced political discord with this idea after tasting the Reach. Euron changed his mind, and decided to send Victarion off with 93 ships of the Ironfleet, thinking the average ship/captain wasn't up to the task.

So there should still be at least half of the fleet left and more. Victarion says off of Oaskenshield in The Reaver:

"A score of longships prowled the waters beyond the port, the golden kraken writhing on their sails. Hundreds more were beached along the shingles and drawn up to the piers that lined the harbor."

So its not like the shield islands are weakly defended From Cersei in AFFC...

Paxter Redwyne owned two hundred warships, and five times as many merchant carracks, wine cogs, trading galleys, and whalers.

The merchant ships is the part that is interesting to me. These ships will break when it comes to battle; they can't be relied on at all. Victarion often talks about the speed of the ironborn ships. If Euron were to sail out into the ocean and come down on the merchant portion of the Redwyn fleet, they could run down the fleeing merchants and capture them. Crewing them with skeleton forces, they could light them on fire and sail them into the huge, slow dromonds of Paxter's fleet. More merchants would run, the Redwyn warships would be ablaze, and it would be an ironborn victory.

[Mithras]

I think Euron will find a way to trap and defeat Garlan's host before Oldtown. Garlan is too wary to pass Mander before the Redwyne fleet arrives. So, Euron will force him to pass the river with simple boats and the most reasonable thing to do for that is to attack Highgarden or another important city (Cider Hall?) along Mander or its vassal streams.

I also have a crackpot theory that Euron can make Mander swell with magic and his longships can descend onto Garlan's host with the flood, which would be the single badassest scene in the series.

I think Euron will not engage in battle with the Redwyne Fleet. Euron will take all of his ships to Mander to raid. The Redwynes will retake the Shields and close the mouth of Mander to wait for Euron's return. But Euron will carry his longships upto Honeywine and descend on Oldtown. That way, the city will be completely unaware of the attack and reinforcements will be far away.

[Fire Eater]

There are only around 10k men in KL of the Tyrells, and I just told how, they sail AROUND by going.out of sight of land like he did earlier in the story.

Also the tyrell host is encamped OUTSIDE of the city like the Lannister host was, and they also won't know the iron born are coming. They can close off the bay and storm the city after they take the tyrell host at KL unawares.

Mace has a much larger army than 10k. 30k would be closer to the mark. Except this wouldn't be short voyage from the Iron Isles to the Shield Isles but going from Whispering Sound all the way around Dorne to KL without stopping for supplies. There is no way a fleet that large would be unseen on the busy eastern seaboard of Westeros. There is no way the Ironborn would be able to take KL unawares, IMO.

They would know as a fleet that size would be noticed. The Ironmen would be facing a much larger, better equipped army.

I think Euron will find a way to trap and defeat Garlan's host before Oldtown. Garlan is too wary to pass Mander before the Redwyne fleet arrives. So, Euron will force him to pass the river with simple boats and the most reasonable thing to do for that is to attack Highgarden or another important city (Cider Hall?) along Mander or its vassal streams.

I also have a crackpot theory that Euron can make Mander swell with magic and his longships can descend onto Garlan's host with the flood, which would be the single badassest scene in the series.

I think Euron will not engage in battle with the Redwyne Fleet. Euron will take all of his ships to Mander to raid. The Redwynes will retake the Shields and close the mouth of Mander to wait for Euron's return. But Euron will carry his longships upto Honeywine and descend on Oldtown. That way, the city will be completely unaware of the attack and reinforcements will be far away.

Euron would have to get past Garlan to get to HG.

I agree that Euron would want to avoid the Redwyne fleet. I think Redwyne would want to clear the Ironborn out of his seat first. I agree the Shields will be retaken, and Euron would probably want the fleet to be as far away from Oldtown as it can so Redwyne couldn't aid the city when Euron attacks.

[Tyrus Martell]

In Sam's POV we find out that a Lyseni ship was captured and with it they planned to get into the city and start a fire so they could open the gates while everyone is distracted. Euron had to know of this plan and he would have had thousands of men waiting close to Oldtown ready to attack at a moments notice. It looks like he is spreading himself thin reaving up and down the Southern coast but I think he's trying to lure the Redwyne fleet to him. We know he has the Warlocks and used them to his advantage already.

If he sails to KL by the time he gets there Aegon could be sitting on the Throne with 20,000 sellswords and a Tyrell host allied with him so there is no way he'd do that unless he had a Dragon.

Good catch, forgot about that little detail. Crafty bugger, Euron is.

[Roose on the Loose]

If Euron attacked KL right now I think he'd find it very vulnerable. As of the end of ADwD, I couldn't begin to say who is in charge in KL. Is anybody in position to raise the chain? I think the whole set the Blackwater on fire play takes a lot of prep. With the element of surprise, Cercei/Mace/whoever is in charged might find that they lost before they knew there was an issue.

[AdmiralKyrd]

If Euron attacked KL right now I think he'd find it very vulnerable. As of the end of ADwD, I couldn't begin to say who is in charge in KL. Is anybody in position to raise the chain? I think the whole set the Blackwater on fire play takes a lot of prep. With the element of surprise, Cercei/Mace/whoever is in charged might find that they lost before they knew there was an issue.

The problem with attacking King's Landing is that there is no retreat. They would be trapped North of the stepstones by the Redwyne fleet returning. They wouldn't be able to control the population. Some army from somewhere would march against them and throw them out. They would have no inland supplies and no oversea supplies. The city outside of the Red Keep is incredibly poor, there isn't that much loot...

Most importantly: taking King's Landing would remove the need of Highgarden to split its forces to defend the crown's wishes and their own. With no one on the iron throne they would place all their power in knocking the Ironborn out of the shield islands, rather than having to concern themselves with Stannis. Maybe if they captured Margaery they could offer to spare her life and hold her as a ward/captive on Pyke so long as Highgarden yielded the shield islands?

It's an iffy plan if best.

[aFeastForDragons]

Also the High Sparrow and thousands of Faith Militant supporters are going to defend the city from anyone who is deemed to worship a false God. We know they disapprove of Stannis because of the Red God. The Drowned God would be no different.

[Slender Aimry Hill]

I get the impression Euron is a far slyer diplomat than anyone else in his family, and find the eagerness of certain Tyrell bannermen in Small Council scenes to appease the ironborn more than a little interesting (looking at you, Lords Redwyne and Merryweather)...

[SeanF]

Without defections, I don't see how the Ironborn could occupy the Reach. The population of the Reach must be ten times that of the Iron Islands.

[Slender Aimry Hill]

They say each man from the Isles is worth ten from the greenlands, so that sounds like a fair fight to me!

EDIT: actually it's a dozen, them soft-bellied Reachfolk don't stand a fighting chance, AYE

[The Reckoner]

GRRM isn't sparing in his use of magic. He has said himself that it is all around in the books, the reader and most of the characters being unaware of it. I expect some warlock shenanigans will help Euron in his next attack.