Jump to content

NFL 2015 Pre Draft: Down a Lazy Rivers

Manhole Eunuchsbane

By Manhole Eunuchsbane,
in Entertainment

Recommended Posts

Fez Council Member

Fez

Posted
Posted

Jets schedule is looking pretty good. The bullshit London game is away game for them, as is technically their game against the Giants, so that's two big bullets dodged. And although the division is looking pretty strong, the AFC South/NFC East/Cleveland/Oakland schedule is certainly winnable; if the Jets get a QB. With a real QB, 11-5 would be entirely possible I think (go 3-3 in division, lose @Indy and @Dallas); but if they're stuck with Geno, 7-9 is far more likely (Houston would eat him, and 0-6 in the division would be entirely possible).


Link to comment
Share on other sites
Rhom Council Member

Rhom

Posted
Posted

Miners have toughest road to SB, 2nd toughest flat SOS.

I thought a bad season was supposed to make this go away. 9ers have had top 3 SOS for 3 straight years.

When you play six games against the toughest division in football, there's never going to be an easy year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mexal Council Member

Mexal

Posted
Posted

Bengals have a tough schedule. Looks about right. Same as every year then it gets a bit easier as we go.



Bengals also sign Lewis to another 1 year extension, this after saying we needed change. So by change, he means sign Michael Johnson (former bengal), sign Pat Sims (former bengal), sign AJ Hawk (from Cinci) and resigning Lewis (coach forever). So basically, by great amounts of change, we're the same team.


Link to comment
Share on other sites
Manhole Eunuchsbane Council Member

Manhole Eunuchsbane

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Bengals have a tough schedule. Looks about right. Same as every year then it gets a bit easier as we go.

Bengals also sign Lewis to another 1 year extension, this after saying we needed change. So by change, he means sign Michael Johnson (former bengal), sign Pat Sims (former bengal), sign AJ Hawk (from Cinci) and resigning Lewis (coach forever). So basically, by great amounts of change, we're the same team.

Well, they do say a tiger doesn't change its' stripes. I guess you have to give them credit for living up to their totem animal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Maithanet Council Member

Maithanet

Posted
Posted

I was curious about how important early picks are vs later picks in terms of getting the best players. So I went back to look at the best player (as judged by me), and where they were picked.



1998 - #1, Peyton Manning. Alternates: #21 Randy Moss, London Fletcher (Undrafted)


1999 - #7 Champ Bailey. Alternates: #2 Donovan McNabb


2000 - #199 Tom Brady. Alt: #9 Brian Urlacher.


2001 - #74 Steve Smith. Alt: #5 Ladanian Tomlinson, #4 Justin Smith


2002 - #24 Ed Reed. Alt: #2 Julius Peppers


2003 - #16 Troy Polamalu. Alt: Antonio Gates (undrafted), Tony Romo (undrafted).


2004 - #3 Larry Fitzgerald. Alt: #11 Roethlesburger


2005 - #24 Aaron Rodgers. Alt: #11 Demarcus Ware


2006 - #12 Haloti Ngata. Alt: #1 Mario Williams.


2007 - #14 Darelle Revis. Alt: #2 Calvin Johnson, #7 Adrian Peterson.


2008 - #12 Ryan Clady. Alt: #49 Desean Jackson, #73 Jamaal Charles.


2009 - #24 Clay Matthews. Alt: #42 Jarius Byrd.


2010 - #2 Ndamukong Suh. Alt: #3 Gerald McCoy, #14 Earl Thomas


2011 - #11 JJ Watt. Alt: #9 Tyron Smith, #154 Richard Sherman


2012 - #1 Andrew Luck. Alt: #9 Luke Kuechly, #75 Russell Wilson



If I left anyone super obvious off, I apologize, I'm just scanning the list. A quick review seems to indicate I'm a little light on O lineman. Oh well. Anyways, what can we learn from this?


This represents 15 years of drafting. In that time, the best player was picked:


1-5: 4 times


6-10: once


11-19: five times


20-32: 3 times


After first round: Twice



Of all the players on my list (which leaves off a lot of great players in strong draft years):


1-5: 11 times.


6-10: 4 times.


11-19: 8 times.


20-32: 4 times.


Drafted After First round: 7 times


Undrafted: 3 times.



So, by my absolutely arbitrary metrics, I am a little surprised at how much better the first round is, and at how good picks 11-19 are compared to 1-10 (there isn't much dropoff). But after pick 24, there's a huge dropoff in the chance of getting a top notch impact player.


Link to comment
Share on other sites
Fez Council Member

Fez

Posted
Posted

I just saw that McShay has the Jets picking Todd Gurley at #6, and all I can say is "FUCK NO!" I sure hope McShay is just talking out his ass, because taking a RB that high is such a complete waste. Even if almost all RBs weren't mostly interchangeable, that's not position the Jets need help with right now; Ivory and Powell aren't great, but they're perfectly fine. If the Jets can't get Mariota, they should get a WR or a pass-rusher, not a damn RB.


Link to comment
Share on other sites
lancerman Council Member

lancerman

Posted
Posted

I just saw that McShay has the Jets picking Todd Gurley at #6, and all I can say is "FUCK NO!" I sure hope McShay is just talking out his ass, because taking a RB that high is such a complete waste. Even if almost all RBs weren't mostly interchangeable, that's not position the Jets need help with right now; Ivory and Powell aren't great, but they're perfectly fine. If the Jets can't get Mariota, they should get a WR or a pass-rusher, not a damn RB.

I thought the exact same thing. I remember Ivory impressing the hell out of me in the Detroit game. Then they inexplicably stopped using him. And now they have Ridley whose pretty good. And running back is so devalued nowadays I doubt you could get pull any meaningful trade off.

But a lot of people are starting to get the sense that Mariota is going #2. So that leaves a lot up in the air for the Jets. Smart move would be to try for a solid lineman. They are likely rolling with Geno. Give him some protection.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jace, Extat Council Member

Jace, Extat

Posted
Posted

I was curious about how important early picks are vs later picks in terms of getting the best players. So I went back to look at the best player (as judged by me), and where they were picked.

1998 - #1, Peyton Manning. Alternates: #21 Randy Moss, London Fletcher (Undrafted)

1999 - #7 Champ Bailey. Alternates: #2 Donovan McNabb

2000 - #199 Tom Brady. Alt: #9 Brian Urlacher.

2001 - #74 Steve Smith. Alt: #5 Ladanian Tomlinson, #4 Justin Smith

2002 - #24 Ed Reed. Alt: #2 Julius Peppers

2003 - #16 Troy Polamalu. Alt: Antonio Gates (undrafted), Tony Romo (undrafted).

2004 - #3 Larry Fitzgerald. Alt: #11 Roethlesburger

2005 - #24 Aaron Rodgers. Alt: #11 Demarcus Ware

2006 - #12 Haloti Ngata. Alt: #1 Mario Williams.

2007 - #14 Darelle Revis. Alt: #2 Calvin Johnson, #7 Adrian Peterson.

2008 - #12 Ryan Clady. Alt: #49 Desean Jackson, #73 Jamaal Charles.

2009 - #24 Clay Matthews. Alt: #42 Jarius Byrd.

2010 - #2 Ndamukong Suh. Alt: #3 Gerald McCoy, #14 Earl Thomas

2011 - #11 JJ Watt. Alt: #9 Tyron Smith, #154 Richard Sherman

2012 - #1 Andrew Luck. Alt: #9 Luke Kuechly, #75 Russell Wilson

If I left anyone super obvious off, I apologize, I'm just scanning the list. A quick review seems to indicate I'm a little light on O lineman. Oh well. Anyways, what can we learn from this?

This represents 15 years of drafting. In that time, the best player was picked:

1-5: 4 times

6-10: once

11-19: five times

20-32: 3 times

After first round: Twice

Of all the players on my list (which leaves off a lot of great players in strong draft years):

1-5: 11 times.

6-10: 4 times.

11-19: 8 times.

20-32: 4 times.

Drafted After First round: 7 times

Undrafted: 3 times.

So, by my absolutely arbitrary metrics, I am a little surprised at how much better the first round is, and at how good picks 11-19 are compared to 1-10 (there isn't much dropoff). But after pick 24, there's a huge dropoff in the chance of getting a top notch impact player.

The lack of JaMarcus Russell on this list leads me to understand that you are full of shit. ;)

But really the only thing I disagree with is your 2001 analysis. Steve Smith is a fine player, but LT was the best runningback of his generation. Smith wasn't even the best WR from his draft class.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
trickster Council Member

trickster

Posted
Posted

The lack of JaMarcus Russell on this list leads me to understand that you are full of shit. ;)

But really the only thing I disagree with is your 2001 analysis. Steve Smith is a fine player, but LT was the best runningback of his generation. Smith wasn't even the best WR from his draft class.

It was Reggie Wayne :).

Also Revis over Megatron is also debatable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Jaime L Council Member

Jaime L

Posted
Posted

The lack of JaMarcus Russell on this list leads me to understand that you are full of shit. ;)

But really the only thing I disagree with is your 2001 analysis. Steve Smith is a fine player, but LT was the best runningback of his generation. Smith wasn't even the best WR from his draft class.

2001 was Brees IMO. Though I'd have LT #2 and amazing that the not only got the two best players in the draft, but that they also got two Hall of Famers for Michael Vick.

And as Maith did the list, just want to reflect on the Skins getting only 4 years (for very different reasons) out of their two best talents they drafted in the last 15 years - Champ Bailey and Sean Taylor. And we're on our way to RG3 being the third.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Maithanet Council Member

Maithanet

Posted
Posted

Also, that draft had Drew Brees.

Yeah, I just missed Brees. He's obviously above Steve Smith. Although Smith is much better than Reggie Wayne, if he had a qb like Manning he would have eaten the league alive.

And as Maith did the list, just want to reflect on the Skins getting only 4 years (for very different reasons) out of their two best talents they drafted in the last 15 years - Champ Bailey and Sean Taylor. And we're on our way to RG3 being the third.

Thanks man, I needed a nice downer after the Caps win. :eek:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...