R+L=J v.145

[aDanceWithFlagons]

There are some things the author will leave up to interpretation, but Jon's parentage IS a math problem. There will not be multiple correct interpretations.

It was my understanding that there would be no math. And no, Jon is not a neverending math equation.

[addicted to snow]

OMG, Lyanna's Promise was to "Kill the Boy"

[First of Her Name]

Just noticing, I don't think that Ned refers to any promises as broken until he is in the dungeon. I think he promised to tell Jon his true identity and planned to do so, but when he is about to die, he realizes he will break his promise. I'm also noticing that pretty much any time anyone in this book uses the word promise (instead of swear or pledge or whatever), you can count on that promise to be broken or twisted in some way, which brings me around to the PTWP. First, Ned's promise might well be the "promise" that makes Jon TPTWP. But also, why would we expect this promise to be kept or to be a savior of any kind? Prince that was promised by WHOM, to do WHAT? I don't think we are going to like the answers to those questions. Promises are no good in ASOIAF, they never work out.

Anyway, do we have any indication that Ned's promises were "broken" before he was arrested?

[Ser Alex Dayne]

As to the Drogon issue -- once again, we agree. :smug: The backstory regarding dragon binding is one dragon to one rider. I don't see how warging (or skinchanging to be technical) a dragon can undo that life-long bond -- although maybe it could cause some sort of "psychological" battle for control of the dragon, but I don't see how that plays out on the pages of a book. Maybe, but I agree that Jon on Rhaegal just seems more consistent with his destiny.

I partly agree with you about jon on rhaegal making sense although It shouldn't be limited to just rhaegal and I think it is plausible that if dany was to die that jon could ride drogon. It's never really been one dragon one rider and there is precedence of a dragon with more than one dragon. TWOIAF even states that although Balerion was Aegon the conqueror's mount, that following Aegon's death Balerion had other riders

[falcotron]

HA! Like the guy who took the Bible Code process, applied it to Moby Dick, and found "predictions" for presidential assassinations and various other things. Made the Bible Code guys furious.

Yeah, although finding a prediction of 9/11 in the lyrics to Vanilla Ice's first album was even better. I'll bet his metal album tells us where Darkstar is hiding.

[Jaime Fivefingers]

Any textual support for that?

The books. Analyze the timelines. They are to put it nicely....wonky.

[SFDanny]

I failed to find any pictures taken at Westerosi General Hospital.

Look again, I'm sure they're there somewhere.

[Ygrain]

Just noticing, I don't think that Ned refers to any promises as broken until he is in the dungeon. I think he promised to tell Jon his true identity and planned to do so, but when he is about to die, he realizes he will break his promise. I'm also noticing that pretty much any time anyone in this book uses the word promise (instead of swear or pledge or whatever), you can count on that promise to be broken or twisted in some way, which brings me around to the PTWP. First, Ned's promise might well be the "promise" that makes Jon TPTWP. But also, why would we expect this promise to be kept or to be a savior of any kind? Prince that was promised by WHOM, to do WHAT? I don't think we are going to like the answers to those questions. Promises are no good in ASOIAF, they never work out.

Anyway, do we have any indication that Ned's promises were "broken" before he was arrested?

Nope, no broken promises prior this point. And afterwards, Ned thinks that he needs to talk to Jon, considers writing a letter and eventually makes a spiritual visit to the crypts and Bran's dreams, and it's again about Jon. I believe that you are right and that Ned was supposed to disclose the secret when Jon was older.

The books. Analyze the timelines. They are to put it nicely....wonky.

Wow, what an enlightening answer. How curious that no-one has ever analysed timelines before.

[IceFire125]

Tiramine's survey.

First off: thank you SO MUCH to all who took part! I had almost 20,000 people take the survey, and that's incredible! Way more than I could have ever hoped for.

TL;DR of the data:

Top 5 most accepted theories:

R + L = J (97.2% yes)

Jaime is the valonqar (77.2% yes)

Jon is Azor Ahai reborn (75.1% yes)

The Pink Letter is fake (73.2% yes)

Grand Maester Conspiracy (70.9% yes)

Top 5 least accepted theories:

Stannis is Azor Ahai reborn (3.6% yes...RIP Mannis)

Jaime and Cersei are secret Targs (5.8% yes)

D + D = T (5.9% yes i can't believe this is only third)

Jon will come back as a White Walker (11.1% yes)

Stannis will become the Night's King (12.5% yes)

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1ijKnK4nVZ8oJM9WwV2ors01X3ixooZoxYpo3QsQ3IQ0/viewanalytics

http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/3ao7e1/spoilers_all_asoiaf_theories_survey_results_more/

[addicted to snow]

Nope, no broken promises prior this point. And afterwards, Ned thinks that he needs to talk to Jon, considers writing a letter and eventually makes a spiritual visit to the crypts and Bran's dreams, and it's again about Jon. I believe that you are right and that Ned was supposed to disclose the secret when Jon was older.

Wow, what an enlightening answer. How curious that no-one has ever analysed timelines before.

That would be a highly narcissistic promise to extract from Ned, would it not?

[Jaime Fivefingers]

Nope, no broken promises prior this point. And afterwards, Ned thinks that he needs to talk to Jon, considers writing a letter and eventually makes a spiritual visit to the crypts and Bran's dreams, and it's again about Jon. I believe that you are right and that Ned was supposed to disclose the secret when Jon was older.

Wow, what an enlightening answer. How curious that no-one has ever analysed timelines before.

What did you say? Try not using crazy font that people have to work to read.

[stateofdissipation]

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 K 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 D Dany (D) born 8 ½ months after sack (K)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 J J J Jon (J) born 8 or 9 months or thereabouts before Dany (3 month range )

B B B B B 2 3 4 R R R R R Battle of the Bells (B ) 9 months before Robb(R ) = Jon +/- a month N N N N N Ned (N) returns to Cat after a year apart B-N

GRRM is not specific about dates.

That does not mean there is no timeline, It means there are variables in the timeline.

[Jaime Fivefingers]

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 K 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 D Dany (D) born 8 ½ months after sack (K)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 J J J Jon (J) born 8 or 9 months or thereabouts before Dany (3 month range )

B B B B B 2 3 4 R R R R R Battle of the Bells ( B) 9 months before Robb(R ) = Jon +/- a month N N N N N Ned (N) returns to Cat after a year apart B-N

GRRM is not specific about dates.

That does not mean there is no timeline, It means there are variables in the timeline.

Too many variables to know when Jon or Dany were born. We can assume, but we do not know.

With all those numbers I've no idea what your trying to Mark.

[stateofdissipation]

Too many variables to know when Jon or Dany were born. We can assume, but we do not know.

With all those numbers I've no idea what your trying to Mark.

The top line is 1-K based on Ned's statement that The war had raged for almost a year to King's landing

and

9 months after Rhaella's flight before Dany's birth. The world book gives us the flight was 2 weeks before the sack. Thar gives us 13-D

It serves as the base line for other events

1 to JJJ marks the time of Jon's earliest conception to his birth. JJJ covers the SSM's "8 or 9 months or thereabouts" before Dany.

We have Robb and Jon are "of an age" making Robb's birth within a month either way of Jon's. Robb was conceived after the Battle of the Bells.

supposed to be (B ) not the shades smiley...

We have Cat's "Ned and Cat spent their first year apart." Making Ned's return 3 months after Robb's birth. That is the NNNNN as we have 5 possible birth months for Robb.

We cannot know when Jon and Dany were born.... we do have a range. Jon was born between the 11th and 13th month of the rebellion. Dany was born 8 1/2 months after the sack of KIng's Landing (nearly a year from the start of the Rebellion).

[UnmaskedLurker]

I partly agree with you about jon on rhaegal making sense although It shouldn't be limited to just rhaegal and I think it is plausible that if dany was to die that jon could ride drogon. It's never really been one dragon one rider and there is precedence of a dragon with more than one dragon. TWOIAF even states that although Balerion was Aegon the conqueror's mount, that following Aegon's death Balerion had other riders

Yes, of course if a dragonrider dies the dragon can get a new rider and if the dragon dies the rider can get a new dragon. I was postulating that if we think the three dragons will all be part of the final battle (not assured but a decent working hypothesis), then Dany on Drogon and Jon on Rhaegal makes a lot of sense to me. If both Rhaegal and Dany die before the battle is won, then Jon on Drogon seems plausible as well.

ETA: It is so nice to get full functionality back to the site. Hopefully, by next season the issues will be worked out and we won't lose full functionality again.

[The Twinslayer]

Just noticing, I don't think that Ned refers to any promises as broken until he is in the dungeon. I think he promised to tell Jon his true identity and planned to do so, but when he is about to die, he realizes he will break his promise. I'm also noticing that pretty much any time anyone in this book uses the word promise (instead of swear or pledge or whatever), you can count on that promise to be broken or twisted in some way, which brings me around to the PTWP. First, Ned's promise might well be the "promise" that makes Jon TPTWP. But also, why would we expect this promise to be kept or to be a savior of any kind? Prince that was promised by WHOM, to do WHAT? I don't think we are going to like the answers to those questions. Promises are no good in ASOIAF, they never work out.

Anyway, do we have any indication that Ned's promises were "broken" before he was arrested?

Ned made a lot of promises, and he broke most of them.

Here is an example of one that he kept. He promised to sit next to Sansa for the final tilting at the Hand's tournament.

Here are some that he broke. He promised Bran that he could ride a real horse to King's Landing. He also promised to introduce Bran to Barristan Selmy. He promised Barra that he would deliver messages to Robert that he never delivered. He promised Robert that he would eat the boar that killed Robert.

Here are some that could make him to have "disturbing dreams of blood and broken promises." He arranged Lyanna's betrothal to Robert (when a woman is betrothed, it is said that she is "promised"). That promise was broken. And he "promised" Sansa to Joffrey and then tried to break the betrothal. He also broke promises to both Barra's mother and to Robert that he would look after Robert's bastards. He promised Cat that there would not be a war between the Lannisters and the Starks, "praying that it was true." He promised Cersei that he would tell Robert the truth about Cersei and Jaime, and that she should flee far away because "I promise you, no matter where you flee, Robert's wrath will follow you."

Here are some broken promises that other people made while Ned was alive. Cersei and Robert both broke their wedding vows. Jaime broke his Kingsguard vows. Petyr Baelish broke the promise he made to Cat that he would help Ned. Lord Dustin promised to return to the North after Robert's Rebellion, and Ned failed to bring him back, just as Robb broke his promise to bring Ned home.

[SFDanny]

The world book gives us the flight was 2 weeks before the sack.

Actually, no, it doesn't. We know Rossart dies in the sack and we know he is said to be Hand for a "fortnight," but we don't know how long after Chelsted's death Rossart is appointed, nor do we know if the "fortnight" is an approximation. We know Darry was both at the door with Jaime during the rape of Rhaella the night of Chelsted's death and he himself dies at the Trident. How long after Chelsted's death news reaches King's Landing of the battle at the Trident, the event - meaning the arrival of the news - that immediately predates the flight to Dragonstone, is an open question. Still too much wiggle room in this timeline to categorically state two weeks between flight and sack.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

ETA: It is so nice to get full functionality back to the site. Hopefully, by next season the issues will be worked out and we won't lose full functionality again.

Aaaaaaand... it´s gone :)

[stateofdissipation]

Actually, no, it doesn't. We know Rossart dies in the sack and we know he is said to be Hand for a "fortnight,"

Rossarts appointment and Rhaella's flight are discussed in the World Book:

Birds flew and couriers raced to bear word of the victory at the Ruby Ford. When the news reached the Red Keep, it was said that Aerys cursed the Dornish, certain that Lewyn had betrayed Rhaegar. He sent his pregnant queen, Rhaella, and his younger son and new heir, Viserys, away to Dragonstone, but Princess Elia was forced to remain in King's Landing with Rhaegar's children as a hostage against Dorne. Having burned his previous Hand, Lord Chelsted, alive for bad counsel during the war, Aerys now appointed another to the position: the alchemist Rossarta man of low birth, with little to recommend him but his flames and trickery.

but we don't know how long after Chelsted's death Rossart is appointed,

Nor does it matter.... the world book's time of appointment of Rossart and the time he was hand-- 2 weeks before the sack.

nor do we know if the "fortnight" is an approximation.

True enough... we know it was presented as fact in the text. If it later becomes an approximate time, it will be adjusted.

We know Darry was both at the door with Jaime during the rape of Rhaella the night of Chelsted's death and he himself dies at the Trident.

OK... but it was not included in the calculation. We do not need it, Text has 9 months after the flight. The world book has Rossart appointed and Rhaella's flight on news of the defeat. We have the duration of Rossart's tenure at 2 weeks.

How long after Chelsted's death news reaches King's Landing of the battle at the Trident, the event that immediately predates the flight to Dragonstone, is an open question.

Chelstead is only an issue if we add Dany was conceived following his death. I did not invent a conception time...

We have a hard birth date 9 months after the flight. We have a hard date for the flight.

Still too much wiggle room in this timeline to categorically state two weeks between flight and sack.

If you would question the accuracy of the Rossart was hand for two weeks that is fair. Let us know what you turn up.

When we have a reasonable question of the accuracy of the given tenure--- there is wiggle room.

[J. Stargaryen]

Aaaaaaand... it´s gone :)

I can check profiles but not content.