Survivor: Kaôh Regōng Trail

[Scrambled Aegon]

Why do you think we're not getting a Beauty winner? They were presented super positively through the whole pre-swap - almost every single one of their scenes was about how much they get along, while the Brawn and Brain scenes were usually about division and nobody came out of them looking better for it (with visible members of both tribes repeating negative comments about their own tribe.) The collective edit of the Beauty tribe was leaps and bounds better than the other two tribes, so I'm especially surprised that you'd see them as the least likely. And the girls' alliance in particular got a really heavy amount of focus for something that never came to fruition at a single vote (they were specifically mentioned in every single Previously On segment, to my knowledge); my first thought was that they'd take it to the end, but with that clearly not happening, it seems like they just really want to drive home that Michele and Julia were strategizing early on and have now had those plans dashed by a swap. Which could set Michele up for a very similar story to recent winners like Sandra or Nat A - the whole "alliance loses for reasons outside her control but then she gets revenge and wins despite not having them" deal. (Obviously Michele is way, way more viable than Julia.)

 

And plus, there's a lack of other real options. Michele's edit isn't absolutely outstanding, but it is strong, it has nothing wrong with it, and it's 100% consistent with the show's typical setup for a low-key female winner at this stage. She gets to talk when she doesn't need to. She's gotten a decent amount of time and focus in the "Previously on" segments, she got a great confessional in the premiere about her job, and she's gotten to comment on Tai and now the swap more than anything. It's a very strongly viable edit for a winner with lots of precedent and few, if any, flaws.

 

While the other players... I have Nick and Peter outright eliminated as not winning, for blatantly obvious reasons, as well as Scot (too negative and too empty/impersonal), Joe (massively low-key with the occasional tinge of negativity; the second-oldest player of all time winning would be way more visible and positive than this), Julia (this episode could have been a great one for a Julia win, but instead it was the exact episode we'd get if she lost: "She's a teen with no life experience" is exactly why most viewers write her off, and the first time she's talked in weeks, it was... to say "I'm a teen with no life experience"), Aubry (edit is just weirdly spotty), and probably Neal (backing character who gets focus but it's all super hollow and is consistent with the edit of a juror whose vote-off is meant to be mildly impactful; what now pushes me from "there's no reason for him to win" into "there's a reason for him to not win" territory is how rushed and neutral his Idol scene is - and his apparent lack of autonomy in the Liz boot.) I can see keeping Aubry/Neal in as very weak contenders, but Michele is still clearly miles above them, and there is no way Nick, Peter, Joe, Scot, or Julia are winning (per any and all previous trends.)

 

I have Jason and Debbie in contention as wildly, wildly unlikely but still theoretically possible. Jason's edit is leaps and bounds more negative than any other winner in the history of the show and needlessly so: Tony did bad stuff, but it was all tied to the game so we had to see it. We've never seen a winner do stuff like joke about feeding his skin to another players... and I say needlessly because he could have looked better. Some of his anti-Alecia stuff could have been cut, or she could have been made out to look a lot worse - but instead we get Probst outright saying "I'm rooting for you!" (and, by proxy, against Jason/Scot) at TC. But Jason has gotten a lot of good strategic stuff and positive stuff (veteran, doesn't let the elements get him down - "suck it up and move on!"), some of which specifically tempers his negativity ("I just lost my patience because as a father I want what's best for Alecia"... I think that was an absurdly personal and douchey comment that made him look even worse, but that's beside the point.) So I do keep him in contention and his edit is not irredeemable. But it is more negative than it needs to be, by far, and while that is not insurmountable, it is unprecedented and it is clearly a stronger mark against him than anything about Michele and much more consistent with a threatening player we respect but eventually see lose.

 

Debbie has been great for the last three episodes but was a complete and utter punchline for at least the first two weeks to the point of the producers mocking her with her job title changing on the screen. She is way, way more of an over-the-top punchline than any winner has been. But over time she has been humanized and been shown to be a competent player, so we keep getting episodes like this, it is very possible that the producers are laughing "with her" rather than at her and we're meant to find her quirky personality unironically charming. So I keep her in contention. But her edit is more worrying in recent weeks with all this "mastermind" stuff, which is much more direct downfall setup than something we just "laugh with." It is still possible for her to win (fucking lol if she does, I'd love it) but her edit has been extreme in ways that no winner's edit has been extreme, so she is still clearly an inferior contender to the more traditional Michele.

 

I see Tai and especially Cydney as Michele's biggest competition, and the reason why I am not fully sold on Michele as the winner but simply the most likely one. If Michele goes out next or something, and it turns out the entire Beauty girls story was about disappearing at the swap and they just had 0 other content... which would be strange, but if that happens, and it could... then Tai or especially Cydney could win. Tai's edit is incredibly straightforward. It's positive, it's strategic, we as viewers root for Tai. But we also rooted for Keith, we rooted for Holly, we rooted for Malcolm... there's virtually always a likable, strategic distraction who's getting more of the "fan favorite" edit than a winner edit. With how heavy-handed Tai's edit has been, and with how much of his game talk comes back entirely to "I have an Idol!", he feels a lot more like a fan favorite who gets cut short than a winner. That could change and Tai could win if Michele goes out soon, but Tai being a fan favorite/probable endgame loser and Michele being the winner is a much more direct progression from their current places in the story than Michele losing and Tai winning.

 

Cydney is really almost even with Michele, though, and I can see people putting her above Michele. I am on the verge of doing it myself, even. Cydney's edit is fantastic. The first four episodes were okay, but it was just a lot of game narration that probably would have been in there anyway with the small tribes, and there was still nothing personal there. This episode gave Cydney personal, individual development not just as a player but as a person, and it was then tied to the game. It was a fantastic episode for her. I still put her below Michele, because it took Cydney longer to reach this point and I think she could have been more effectively distanced from her extraordinarily negative original tribe, but it's a small gap.

 

...Oh yeah, and Debbie had a specific quote about how great it'd be for a woman to win this season. So that bodes even better for Mich/Cyd(/Deb.)

 

So to recap, my ranking of winner likelihood right now would be:

PROBABLY ONE OF THEM

1. Michele - Incredibly straightforward, natural, common edit for a winner of her exact demographic and I do not think there is a single hole in her edit. The closest thing to a hole is her low visibility in episodes 3 and 4, but with her demographic/tribal visibility/total lack of TC visitation until at least episode five (and the fact that episode 4 barely counts; half the cast was invisible in that anomaly and I think of them as being on "pause" rather than actually hurt by any lack of air time, because the producers had very little freedom in how they told that story) prevent me from being particularly concerned about that. I do not think there is absolutely anything wrong with Michele's edit at this point and there seems to be a very particular level of care devoted to it that they would not usually give to a player like her if they just lose the season. Would give her a 45% chance of winning. My guess is that that chance will become a lot higher or a lot lower in the next two episodes at the most.

2. Cydney - Passable first four episodes and then an astounding fifth one that gave us everything we lacked at the start. But she is linked to our most negative antagonists and the personal development may have been too little, too late, which keeps her #2. But she and Michele are incredibly close and I feel very confident that one of them is our winner. 42%.

 

MAYBE

3. Tai - Looks like a clear fan favorite endgame distraction as we have had before and will have again. But the ingredients are definitely there if things go weirdly haywire for Michele or Cydney. 10%

 

ALMOST DEFINITELY NOT

4. Jason - Negativity exceeding any and every other winner in Survivor history and could look a lot better than he does if they wanted us to root for him. But he could also look a lot worse and there is clearly a level of craft to his edit - but of course, he is also clearly a contestant who would get a crafted edit whether he wins or not, because players and people like Jason are the stars of modern seasons. 2%

5. Debbie - Cartoon character turned into self-aggrandizing, self-proclaimed "mastermind", but has also been on the right side of seemingly every conversation ever. Her first two episodes could just be "Look how silly she is!", but the "mastermind" talk is bordering on indefensible for a Survivor winner. Still, can't quite count her out, because there's been good content, too. But I would be very (pleasantly) surprised by a Debbie victory. 0.9%

 

ON THE BRINK

6/7. Neal/Aubry - Both have incredibly subpar edits and neither one says Survivor winner, but I'm not 100% convinced that there's quite enough wrong to eliminate either of them. 0.06% Aubry, 0.04% Neal

8. Julia - Almost completely irrelevant until it was time to tell us that our worst fears are right. I won't quite eliminate her yet only because I have not rewatched the episode yet so I am not sure if I should. I probably will. It would take a very visible and massively positive episode next week to keep her even remotely possible as a winner.

 

ELIMINATED

Joe - 71 year old winner would be built up more and more positively than this, not be a grumpy, under-the-radar old man who appears to be riding the coattails of Debbie Wanner.

Scot - All the negativity of Jason with little of the strategy and none of the personal insight. Fills space because he's "famous", good at talking to the camera, and involved in consequential strategy. But much more similar to Kelley Wentworth than any actual Survivor winner.

Peter/Nick - hahahahaha

 

Hope this helped.

[Kyoshi]

Count me among those who don't see Michele as a winner. Up until this episode, I didn't know her name. I didn't know either of the Beauty women names to be honest. I thought one of them was Jessica. But maybe I should have paid more attention.

I really liked this episode. Tai, as usual, was my favourite part. But if I'm being honest I'm surprised he's lasted this long. I really like the idea that at this point he's the only idol-holder who has access to someone who knows where another idol is. I think he's playing really well, the best of the Beauty bunch in my humble opinion. Everyone likes him. And he's got this thing about him where he just seems genuine about everything.

[Kyoshi]

I get where you're coming from with Cydney, though. She was my pick on episode 1 and I can see her winning. But Michele...I don't know, I don't see it.

[Gertrude]

My main problem with the beauty tribe producing a winner is how bland and non-descript their edit has been. We got to know Caleb, and Tai. other than that, the story surrounding the other 4 has been brief and to the point. Sure, it's been positive (Nick aside) but that doesn't mean anything when we can't even tell them apart. Seriously, I could not tell the two brunettes apart by sight, nor could I tell you how their game differed other than that one of them talked to Caleb about an alliance. That is why I highly doubt we get a beauty winner.

You've obviously been paying attention to her more than I have, but I think I could name a personality trait of everyone left on the island except for Julia and Michelle. Maybe that's on me, maybe that's on the editors.

I am far from picking a winner, just that as of now, Deb and Jason look good story-wise. I agree they have their flaws. I think Jason will go far in the game, but is less likely to win because of the negativity you outlined. Deb is getting set-up for a fall, but I don't count the first few episodes as a punch-line against her. She told us that was how she wanted to be perceived and it worked. The producers were just playing to the script Deb wrote and did it well. Who honestly expected Deb to emerge like that?

Your list of eliminated players is just about the same as mine. I don't have Scot there yet, but I do have Julia. After each episode I write down my first impression of who can't win.. So far it's Joe, (Alecia), Nick, Julia, Peter.

[dbunting]

I have to say Scot surprised me a little this episode. He bonded with Tai quickly and he correctly urged him to save his idol, so Tai will now be loyal to him. Now another beauty comes to them, and they can get her and Peter to vote out the other two brains on the tribe if they want.

Peter, it is funny how people immediately see him as being smug. Guess if he watches this he can learn from it?

Cydney..still not sure about her. I like that we saw a little more about her this episode and that she is very intelligent. Debbie glomming onto her may help since she is in a majority with that.

So so episode but as stated, it was a merge.

[Gertrude]

The thing with Cyd is that she hasn't gotten a lot of development, but she has been far from invisible. She is allied with Jason and Scott, who have been shown in a negative light (Jason moreso I think) but Cyd has been shown positively. She hasn't been part of the Alecia bashing so far as we know - she's been remarkably no drama. She had Alecia thinking she was an ally. If I had to compare it to a winner's edit from the past, it would be along the lines of V or Tina. Those wins weren't flashy, but they were entirely earned. Good listener, pays attention and keeps her head low and fits in to the group. I'm not saying I think Cyd is our winner, but that I think what they've shown of her so far doesn't rule her out and leans slightly in her favor.

[Criston of House Shapper]

This was a fun episode, it's hilarious to watch Peter get openly douchey again as soon as he feels comfortable in his position. His lack of awareness exceeds any contestant I can remember. I think the Brains are going to get destroyed at the merge if the five of them stay for much longer, but it doesn't look like it according to the preview.

On 17.3.2016 at 7:32 AM, Scrambled Aegon said:

(shortened for length)

I don't get your take on Michelle, she seems way too invisible. I literally know nothing about her, I don't even know her job, we saw more about Bob Crowley in his first 5 episodes and I think that's about as invisible as you can be in the pre-merge and still win. We really haven't seen anything strategically to distinguish her from the other beauty girls and on the post-swap tribe we saw Nick and Debbie fighting for the Brawns, and we saw nothing from Michelle or Neal. It's just not along the lines of the modern winner-edit.

People I can't see win right now are Peter, Nick, Neal, Joe (who will be next out), Tai (way too overhanded/fan-favourite-Rupert-edit), Scot.

Debbie and Jason would be along the lines of a modern winner-edit, with some negative focus along with the positive. They're by far the most fleshed-out characters. Don't forget that Mike got a very negative edit in the premier ("Go get wood!"). Heidik was very dislikable, Tom was dismissive at times, Rich was arrogant, Jenna was whiny, Natalie was agressive, Fabio was a joke. Most of the winners are flawed somehow, which makes them interesting.

I agree about Cydney, I think we've seen enough of her playing a really smart quiet game. If the Brawn-alliance gets back together after the merge, I could see her beating Scot and Jason in front of a jury. I actually think she has a great chance, probably about equal to Debbie and Jason. Or even better. The more I think about it, she makes the most sense as a winner. I'm not doing percentages right now, I'll wait until after the merge episode because that's always the most crucial one.

Aubry, Julie and Michelle are basically out for me. They still have a theoretical chance because I can't find a negative with them, except a lack of strategical input or cameratime. Basically the thing I look for is a POV-character; if a Survivor season was a book, from whose perspective would it be written, and who would be the side characters? That's the question I ask myself when I watch this show, and the winner is always in the group of the POV-characters. The 3 girls however, are not.

[Raja]

Peter at tribal is pretty funny. Also, I'm not even certain who Michele is, though I think that might just be me not paying much attention. She's not the one that went to exile, yes? I don't think we've seen almost any of Nick and Michele, at least when compared to some of the other players. 

[Howdyphillip]

 Michelle was my pregame pick as well, and I agree with the assessment that she is among the front runners still in this race. It is now getting to the point where the big targets will start eliminating themselves, and I think that she will be able to slip away from the hotseat she is in on the Beauty tribe right now.

 As far as a quirky winner's edit goes, Fabio probably had the strangest one, and it really isn't that much less than what Debbie is being given right now. I put her chances fairly high as well.

 

 

[Scrambled Aegon]

On 3/17/2016 at 9:16 AM, Gertrude said:

My main problem with the beauty tribe producing a winner is how bland and non-descript their edit has been. We got to know Caleb, and Tai. other than that, the story surrounding the other 4 has been brief and to the point. Sure, it's been positive (Nick aside) but that doesn't mean anything when we can't even tell them apart. Seriously, I could not tell the two brunettes apart by sight, nor could I tell you how their game differed other than that one of them talked to Caleb about an alliance. That is why I highly doubt we get a beauty winner.

You've obviously been paying attention to her more than I have, but I think I could name a personality trait of everyone left on the island except for Julia and Michelle. Maybe that's on me, maybe that's on the editors.

On the other hand, that tribe never attended a Tribal Council, and now Michele joins the exclusive group of contestants (I think only Tandang, Cambodia Keith, and Cambodia Joe?) to never attend a Tribal Council before the merge. Of course we did see more development on Tandang - but with Abi/Pete/RC it is probably a safe bet that they had more dramatic and dynamic stuff to work with. Here, they didn't have that stuff because it seems like things really were just "The women align and it stays that way the entire time"... but the stuff they did have has been drilled into our heads. The women's alliance seems to have been completely inconsequential, as Anna was voted off immediately without either Michele or Julia, who have yet to attend a Tribal Council together or, in Michele's case, at all - yet it has been mentioned in literally every Previously On segment, without exception.

 

This is directed at other posts in the thread and not just yours: Yes, Michele hasn't been particularly visible, but female winners aren't. Let's look at all the female winners since Parvati. Up through the fifth episode, Michele had 7 confessionals (2 in the premiere, 2 in the Jenny boot, none in episodes three and four, 3 at the swap.) If we look at recent female winners, up through episode five:

- Natalie A. had 7

- Sophie had 5

- HvV Sandra had 5 (all from the premiere)

- Natalie W. had 4

- Parvati had 5 (3 from the premiere in which she was nearly voted off)

 

The only female winners to have more confessionals thru ep.5 than Michele are Denise and Kim, who are both clear outliers: Denise was one of two survivors of a six-person tribe that attended all four TCs then she also attended the fifth, while Kim was the dominant force on a tribe comprised entirely of women (and one of the most dominant forces in the history of Survivor.)

 

Michele is an outlier on the opposite end of the spectrum, having attended 0 Tribal Councils in the first five episodes. And yet, despite having attended no Tribal Councils, she, through episode five, received focus not only feasible for a female winner but on the upper end of the spectrum for female winners in recent seasons (the pattern continues if you go all the way back to All-Stars, with Amber's 4 and Danni's 6, but I think anything older than around Panama at the earliest isn't as relevant to modern seasons.) Without the outliers of Denise and Kim, she's at the absolute top.

 

Yes, Michele had not received a lot of focus in the first five episodes. Neither had any other female winner. Michele had received more than most of these ladies - even while attending no Tribal Councils throughout the first five episodes, something that is literally unprecedented for a Survivor winner. She isn't just visible enough to win; she's almost as visible at this stage as female winners get. Despite having the unique trait of never even voting.

 

Consider, also, that Michele is a 24-year-old member of the Beauty tribe. What were the female Beauty edits like in Cagayan? ...In Morgan's case, it maybe wasn't so much of editing based on everything I've heard about her post-show; if anything, her edit was generous. But Jefra had been through more adversity than some people twice her age, Alexis was maybe the biggest Survivor fan on the island, and both were considered top threats to win by the other players. And how were both of them edited? Total ditzes. They were almost never shown, and when they were shown, it was almost invariably to make them look like two pretty girls who didn't know what they were doing, because Survivor producers like telling us that if you're an attractive young woman, you have no other positive attributes - especially in a season like this, where they try to spin "These are the traits they use IN THEIR DAILY LIVES!", and that trait for these women is their physical appearance.

 

Think about how those Beauty women were edited, and then look at how these ones have been edited. Their tribe was invariably shown in a positive light (in contrast to the negative douchey Brawns and the walking Kryptonite of the dysfunctional Brains; both tribes were insulted by their own members multiple times), and the women in particular were put at the strategic forefront, with an alliance that received a level of respect uncharacteristic of Beauty girls' edits, which was reiterated in every single Previously On segment.

 

Was Michele's edit outstanding up through episode five? No. But it was on par with all other female winners for years and years and better than most of them... and considering that she's a 24-year-old "Beauty", I think her edit was pretty damn great compared to how they could have edited her and would be likely to edit her if she were not our winner.

 

I agree that Cydney's edit up through episode five was also very strong and she was clearly the second most likely candidate after Michele.

 

On 3/18/2016 at 0:04 PM, Criston of House Shapper said:

I don't get your take on Michelle, she seems way too invisible. I literally know nothing about her, I don't even know her job, we saw more about Bob Crowley in his first 5 episodes and I think that's about as invisible as you can be in the pre-merge and still win. We really haven't seen anything strategically to distinguish her from the other beauty girls and on the post-swap tribe we saw Nick and Debbie fighting for the Brawns, and we saw nothing from Michelle or Neal. It's just not along the lines of the modern winner-edit.

See the above stats. Michele, through episode five, was not too invisible to win.

 

If you don't know her job, that is sort of on you, because she told us her job in her very first scene on the show, and she then immediately connected it to Survivor before running through her entire tribe and explaining who she wanted to align with. That is the exact scene that put her on many people's radar to begin with (and it is also a scene that we have seen in multiple Previously On segments since.) She told us her job and connected it to success in the game the very first time she ever spoke to the cameras before establishing a significant alliance.

 

Michele is not along the lines of the Survivor winner - not even in terms of modern Survivor, but ever. No winner has gone the first five episodes without attending a Tribal Council, and almost no contestants have at all. And yet, as outlined above, despite her truly extraordinarily irrelevance to the game, her relevance to the show remains comparable to all other modern female winners. She is absolutely along the lines of the modern female winner edit. It is just rather easy to forget that when we have only had one female winner since 2012, and two of the last three were extraordinarily relevant to the game.

You are right that she was not distinguished from the other girls strategically - although I will note that her strategy was more personal than theirs as it was directly tied to her individual profession - but that is because there was nothing to distinguish them. They never attended a Tribal Council together, the dynamics of the tribe never shifted, and 2/3 of them had still not attended a Tribal Council at the time of the quoted comment. The content simply was not there. Yet the content that was there has been driven into our heads in Previously On segments.

 

You are less right, however, that we saw nothing of her at the swap. She received three confessionals after the swap, as many as or more than anyone else on her tribe. One of these was the very first confessional any contestant received after the swap. She then received a second confessional that said basically the exact same thing as the first one, yet was still included in a second scene, and a third one explaining her strategy. Her edit was on par with anyone else's in that episode and more noteworthy than most for its inclusion of the first reaction to the swap.

 

I agree that Neal's edit was horrendous following a mediocre first month and he is eliminated from contention as a winner.

 

~~~~~

 

All of the above refers only to the first five episodes. Now, we have a sixth. And in this sixth episode, Michele received an additional six confessionals, while half of her tribe, including fellow contender Cydney, received none. Michele has now received 13 confessionals despite being one of only a few contestants in the entire history of Survivor to attend 0 Tribal Councils before the merge, and if her edit were less visible than the typical edit for a Survivor winner, that would make sense considering that she would be the only winner in Survivor history to not attend a single Tribal Council until as far as episode seven.

So when we consider that total absence from all votes and the fact that her edit hasn't been less visible.. that looks very, very good for her. The argument that Michele is too invisible to win was not valid last week; this week, I imagine that it won't even be on the table.

 

And of course when we consider the content of this week, not just the amount.. it was stellar, and I imagine more people will be coming around on her this week as a result. She got a massive amount of focus for a Reward Challenge of all things, focus that put losing that challenge into an outright positive light for her. Her challenge performance received an extraordinary amount of focus, and none of it was negative. She later laid out her strategy in-depth, and she was not just opposed to a very clearly negative character in Nick; she was opposed to him in a way that explicitly cast her in a positive light as strong and independent. This was a magnificent episode for Michele and I imagine many skeptics may lean a little more in her direction this week than before.

 

Michele certainly couldn't have subsisted off an edit at the level of her first five episodes forever. I am definitely not disagreeing with that. She needed a breakout. But her episode 1-5 edit was a strong preamble, and that breakout has absolutely come this week. Her first five episodes weren't a level she could stay at the whole season if she wanted to win - but they were a very, very sufficient appetizer for a main course that seems to have started tonight (and to some extent last week.) They were the right level for her to be at at that point.

 

Meanwhile, we were also told "A woman needs to win this season!" for the second week in a row; Michele's only strong competition as of late has been Cydney, another woman, but still, this is a big nail in Tai's coffin even if not the final one, and this entire episode was absolutely the final nail in Neal's and Jason's.

 

 

I don't have Michele locked up 100% as the winner, I'm not saying that. But the visibility argument 100% held no water last week and clearly holds none now, and this episode pretty clearly and strongly strengthens her status as the top contender to win (while Cydney and to a lesser extent Debbie and Tai prevent her from being the only contender.)

 

Also RIP Peter. Lol @ his previous confessional about how he'd make the merge without breaking a sweat or whatever. He was fun. I'm happy he's gone but I'll miss him.

[Criston of House Shapper]

You're overthinking it. 

Seriously though, I don't count confessionals, I go by my gut feeling when I determine who I think will win. Her edit this week could be foreshadowing her playing a big role in the next episode, I could see her or Nick be the merge boot. Last year Kass looked pretty good up until her first tribal council, after that she imploded. I think there's a reason why noone has gone through the premerge without attending TC and won, they just lack the experience needed for the later stages of the game. I never ruled her out as a winner, but she's still lower than Cydney, Debbie and maybe even Jason, though I'm starting to think he might be screwed if he keeps lying around that way. You have to work around camp for people to respect you, that's why people liked Tony enough to vote for him. The "lazy jerk"-strategy didn't work out for Jean-Robert, why should it now?

Peter played this very poorly and is 100% responsible for being voted out.

[Howdyphillip]

The world must be shuttering and ready to collapse. I completely agree with Scrambled Aegon about this. I think that Nick clearly is in danger of being the first merge boot based on him being an immunity threat and also one too many in the numbers game of Beauty/Brawn vs. Brains that I think will probably happen.

Michele is in the very best position possible with a working relationship with Julie, and by proxy Scott/Tai/Cydney/ Kyle voting block. When that group starts to cannibalize themselves, who do you think will be coming after Michele? She is clearly favored to win at this point.

[Gertrude]

I concede your point about previous episodes,Aegon, and Michelle did have a good episode here. I still maintain that although she got air time, none of it stuck for a casual viewer. I honestly couldn't tell the difference between her and Anna because there was so very little personality shown. I don't discount her, I just wasn't as sold on her as you seemed to be and I thought if anything it was more of a narrator edit than a player edit.

Peter still doesn't get why people don't like him. I just listened to his exit interview with Rob and he began it by complimenting Rob. Hmm, over-compensating much? By the end of it his inner douche was glimmering through by saying his comment about Debbie having 30 or 40 cats was a jovial comment. Um, no. Crazy Cat Lady is a thing, and it's not flattering.

Aubrey's choice was a tough one and I honestly don't know what I would have done in her shoes. Keeping Peter gives the Brains a 5 v 3 v 3 advantage, but is that an advantage? the obvious thing is for the other two smaller tribes to attack the larger one. This way there are two targets - Brains and Beauty, or maybe they even decide to get rid of Brawn to get rid of threats before cannibalizing their own tribes. More options is you're not an obvious target, I think. And Peter was going to turn, it's just a matter of when. So ultimately I think she did the right thing, but I get her dilemna.

 

[Scrambled Aegon]

Aw. Poor Neal.

[Slurktan]

So I'm coming around on Michelle, they set up her or Nick this episode to be in the final 3 with Scott and Jason and win.  Doubtful its Nick since he was invisible for awhile.

[Gertrude]

Oh god that has to suck getting taken out this way. Any medivac is bad, but this one seems worse in that it looks like a borderline case. I trust the doctor's call, and playing this game is not worth permanent injury. Also kudos to the team for taking that extra step to take care of the players. I doubt that in a regular season without 3 heat stroke risks they would have done this. Maybe I'm not being generous - they did take out Penner for much the same thing, I remember his being a bit worse to the naked eye, however, and impairing his movement.

I really doubt it's Nick in the finals either - he's getting a douchey edit that's as negative as Scott and Jason. The edits are not as bad as some we've seen, but they are the worst this season barring Peter (on a personal level).

I admit Michelle had a few good episodes, but I'm not on her train yet. I'm interested to see how this changes things up. Now brains are down to 3, just like brawn. Maybe that's the math that makes brains and brawn decide to even the odds and Nick is the obvious choice. The girls don't seem to be a challenge threat and Tai is the one with the Golden Ticket. I wasn't expecting a medivac in this episode, so I was confused by Nick's edit here. I would have guessed he was on the chopping block with Aubrey until he won immunity. Maybe they just used this time to set him up for the fall in an episode or two.

Was interesting to see that Deb's edit changed quite abruptly.

[Criston of House Shapper]

I'm not really that surprised that Neal was medivaced by Dr. Rupert, his edit (or lack thereof) kind of set it up. I was kind of underwhelmed by the challange, I guess we're going to see another 5-6 stand-there-and-hold-some-random-object-for-hours-challanges that sucked so bad last season.

I'm finally out on Jason, it's probably a bit late, but he has no chance now. And honestly, since the rest of the Brawn was also portrayed so poorly, I would be surprised to see any of them in the finals, except maybe Cydney. Julia is also out for me because she is a total non-entity. So only four women remain, and that would probably explain why Jeff dislikes this season so much, since the winner isn't some alpha male. From my perspective the chances of winning right now are:

Aubry: 60%

She was at the forefront of this episode and got a really good edit. She's in a crappy position right now, but the Brawn will just keep alienating everyone like Tandang in the Phillippines. In the premier we saw her struggling with the elements, setting up a classic underdog-storyline which will continue now and culminate with her win. We also saw Debbie taking care of her in the premier, so the two of them could be a pair from here on to the end.

Debbie: 25%

This episode kind of lowers her chances a little bit, but her premerge was still pretty strong. She's one of the most fleshed-out characters, and one, that people can actually still root for. If my Debbry-theory holds, I think her chances aren't that great, which is why I put her so much lower than Aubry.

Michelle: 14%

I'm not on the Michelle train. But on the other hand I can't find a negative. She's had some confessionals, but she's still not been at TC and we haven't seen her do stuff that would make a jury respect her enough to give her the votes. All in all I just don't think there's enough there but maybe she will just be the most forgettable winner ever. She could make the finals as a goat, though.

Cydney: 1%

After this episode I think the Brawns are screwed. Cydney kind of got lumped in there, we'll see if she can distance herself from the guys. If so, she still has a very slight chance of pulling it off. I could see her make the finals along with Debbry, but in that case she will probably be destroyed.

So in conclusion, I see Aubry right now as the person with the winner's edit, and in the last several seasons it was usually pretty clear after the merge episode. With the exception of SJDS, where I had picked Jeremy as the winner at that point, and actually from the beginning. So I could be wrong, but I have a pretty good feeling about this one.

[dbunting]

On ‎3‎/‎24‎/‎2016 at 3:13 PM, Gertrude said:

Aubrey's choice was a tough one and I honestly don't know what I would have done in her shoes. Keeping Peter gives the Brains a 5 v 3 v 3 advantage, but is that an advantage? the obvious thing is for the other two smaller tribes to attack the larger one. This way there are two targets - Brains and Beauty, or maybe they even decide to get rid of Brawn to get rid of threats before cannibalizing their own tribes. More options is you're not an obvious target, I think. And Peter was going to turn, it's just a matter of when. So ultimately I think she did the right thing, but I get her dilemna.

 

Have to give you credit on this one, Aubrey's choice did have a big impact on the merge because as you stated Brains would have been the obvious target due to the numbers. By her choosing Peter it helped somewhat, they still targeted the Brains but not because of numbers.

I loved the opening shot of the storm clouds rising up and the lightening, stuck with me.

Strange episode, likely due to their being no overwhelming group to target or dislike. Scrambling was happening on all sides and in the end it didn't matter due to the medical issue. Personally I think they should receive a daily check up so things like this don't cause someone to lose. It doesn't add comfort or give someone an advantage to have a wound cleaned and properly taken care of so things like this don't happen. Let's assume it played out with Aubrey getting the target and Neal gives her the idol and as a result Scott goes home. Imagine the ripples of that versus Neal leaving for medical reasons.

Nick and Aubrey are getting more play time but I am still rooting for Tai, and strangely enough, somewhat rooting for Scott.

[SpaceChampion]

When Nick turns on Jason and Scott, they'll be bitter bitter resentful sore-loser children.

[Criston of House Shapper]

2 hours ago, SpaceChampion said:

When Nick turns on Jason and Scott, they'll be bitter bitter resentful sore-loser children.

This seems like a likely scenario, considering Scot's reaction to Aubry's Julia vote.