US Elections: Super Tuesday Edition, It's Over 9000!

[OnionAhaiReborn]

1 hour ago, Shryke said:

Clinton suggesting that restablizing a country may take many years is suddenly fantasy? That's Clinton actually considering the question and giving a reasoned answer about the length of time these things can take and a writer desperate to write a hackpiece trying to spin that into a negative.

Aggressively missing the point as only you can.

Meanwhile, while Bernie Sanders may be recommending the U.S. adopt domestic policies that match those of our Canadian and European counterparts, thus far he has mentioned nothing about 60-year military deployments. Moreover, unlike Sanders,

Clinton has not even called for taxes to pay for what would be a costly endeavor

— unless her reference in this exchange to Libya’s oil means she hopes to be more successful billing Libya for defense than the U.S. has been with Iraq.

Such is the nature of our politics that Sanders can be attacked as a fantasist for daring to aspire to live as well as Europeans, while 60-year military deployments get treated as magic ponies that cost nothing.

[mormont]

25 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Did Trump really just say he was going to force people to say "Merry Christmas"?  Force?

Trump doesn't worry about whether the things he says are stupid, pointless, offensive, or even remotely possible to actually do. He only cares about whether people enjoy hearing him say them.

[Lany Freelove Cassandra]

One thing I have noticed is that no one ever asks "How do you plan to pay for that [war]?" (war-carpet bombing, all the hyper aggressive Mideast military "solutions"). 

It is always assumed we'll find the money for war, but not for health care or college.

[TrackerNeil]

4 minutes ago, mormont said:

Trump doesn't worry about whether the things he says are stupid, pointless, offensive, or even remotely possible to actually do. He only cares about whether people enjoy hearing him say them.

Actually, I've begun to think that Trump understands the Republican base better than the Republican elites do. 

Trump doesn't play the game of pretending to be an orthodox conservative, and as it turns out, the GOP base doesn't really care about that. McCain and Romney took some heterodox positions in the past, but when pressed the caved right on. Trump is out there saying he doesn't support free trade, doesn't want to cut Social Security or Medicare, is willing to negotiate drug prices, and doesn't spout the standard small government nostrums. Trump's got this combination of racism, authoritarianism and economic populism that, in some ways, follows naturally from the Bush administration, who expanded the federal role in education and enriched Medicare while promoting torture and Gitmo and unnecessary wars. I think if Trump wins the nomination we may see more Republicans adopting his style.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

3 minutes ago, Lany Freelove Strangeways said:

One thing I have noticed is that no one ever asks "How do you plan to pay for that [war]?" (war-carpet bombing, all the hyper aggressive Mideast military "solutions"). 

It is always assumed we'll find the money for war, but not for health care or college.

Exactly. It's completely infuriating, and ludicrous.

[lokisnow]

Did Trump really just say he was going to force people to say "Merry Christmas"?  Force?

I'm not catholic, I don't go to mass, I'm protestant, why should i be forced to wish people an enjoyable Christ's Mass? Most of them don't go to mass either and I've only known two catholics my age that enjoy mass, so it would be rude or sarcastic to tell most catholics I know to enjoy mass.

But it's nice to know Donald Trump wants to force us all to be catholic.

[lokisnow]

Christie is obviously angling for SoS or AG not veep.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

32 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

Christie is obviously angling for SoS or AG not veep.

Yup.

Sarah Palin for head of the EPA?

[Kalbear]

This version of the imperial march - in a major key - is precisely how I imagine Trump's theme song would be.

[alguien]

2 hours ago, S John said:

I'm not so sure anymore that Trump can't win the whole thing.   If he's able to keep up the image that he is calling politicians out and cleaning house, I think that is a fairly powerful thing in this country right now when most Americans are some degree of disappointed with the political leadership in Washington over the past 15 years or so.  I'm not so sure that Clinton is immune to Trumps bullying on the stage when it comes time for the general election debates.  

I think a GOP nominee will get around 35-45% of the vote, even if their name is Voldemort Ramsay Harkonnen.

But I was just rewatching Clinton being questioned the Benghazi fiasco and it gives me a lot of faith that she could easily trounce Trump's tactics. Frankly, I think she's a stronger person. (and the same with Bernie) Also, I believe Trump will have to watch himself as well, because if he went overboard with the attempts to bully, he'd be in danger of looking like he was bullying a woman and that could be incredibly bad optics. (like the time in the Senate debate where Rick Lazio tried to intimidate Hillary by standing next to the podium)

If Trump wins the GOP nomination, my bet is that he will take a real hard left to center (he's already doing it with planned parenthood and healthcare), walk back the racism and misogyny, and go on the charm offensive. He's literally going to say things like, "Of course I said that in the primary. That's what those yahoos needed to hear. But you and I both know I'm not going to do that" followed by a wink and a nudge. 

[TrackerNeil]

9 minutes ago, alguien said:

I think a GOP nominee will get around 35-45% of the vote, even if their name is Voldemort Ramsay Harkonnen.

But I was just rewatching Clinton being questioned the Benghazi fiasco and it gives me a lot of faith that she could easily trounce Trump's tactics. Frankly, I think she's a stronger person. (and the same with Bernie) Also, I believe Trump have to watch himself as well, because if he went overboard with the attempts to bully, he'd be in danger of looking like he was bullying a woman and that could be incredibly bad optics. (like the time in the Senate debate where Rick Lazio tried to intimidate Hillary by standing next to the podium)

I agree on both counts. I think partisanship is just too baked in at this point for anyone to have a Reagan-reelection-style victory. And when it comes to debating, I think Hillary** would wipe the floor with Trump. So far, The Donald has been debating Republicans, and those debates are more about style than substance. A debate against a Democrat won't be the same and it won't look the same. Trump can't speak intelligently about policy, domestic or foreign, and he has a penchant for lying whenever he feels backed into a corner. A general election debate moderator might well do an on-the-spot fact-check the crap that comes out of Trump's mouth, as one did with Romney in 2012. 

And I also agree, Alguien, that if Trump starts screaming at Clinton or wondering openly at how she might be bleeding it will look terrible, and might drive female voters in to her camp in numbers even Democrats cannot expect. Maybe The Donald will find some restraint somewhere, but my money's on him saying something stupid that might play well to the Tea Party but sounds terrible to a more mainstream, rational audience.

**Don't get excited, Bernie people--I am sure Sanders would do fine, too.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

TN,

I think Clinton would crush whomever the Republicans nominate, I just don't know how much it will matter in the end. I think it's safe to say, assuming nothing dramatic happens between now and the GE, that HRC will have a floor of 45%, while the Republican will have a floor of 40-45%. My only real fear with Clinton is that most people already have decided how they feel about her, so she might struggle to gain new voters. She doesn't poll that well with people in the middle that she needs to win over, but you're absolutly right that Trump could meltdown in some fashion and push a lot of people to HRC. I'm curious how she plans to pivot to the GE and what strategy she implements to try and win back the support of people who've been drifting away from her over the last year and a half or so.

 

 

[Fragile Bird]

"Ladies and Gentleman, I bring you the President of the United States of America, Donald J. Trump, and the Vice President, Christopher J. Christie."

Sounds like a nightmare SNL skit.  

 

I think it's Christie for VP.  It's all in the "J".

 

[Red Hermit]

In less surprising news Maine governor Paul LePage has endorsed Trump.

[zelticgar]

2 minutes ago, Mandy said:

Many of the people who were in the audience at Bernie's event were also only there to see him and were also upset about the interruption.  I had to personally explain to several Bernie supporters why they shouldn't be upset at BLM for it.  There are real issues about inequality in this country and BLM is forcing people to hear them. I'm pretty sure the people who really care about this kind of thing don't give a damn about the white tears cried over ruining their $500 dinner.  

How is Trump even a discussion point for people with an IQ over 80?

Mandy - I'm a fan of Trump and my IQ is at least 82!

[Kelli Fury]

1 hour ago, alguien said:

I think a GOP nominee will get around 35-45% of the vote, even if their name is Voldemort Ramsay Harkonnen.

But I was just rewatching Clinton being questioned the Benghazi fiasco and it gives me a lot of faith that she could easily trounce Trump's tactics. Frankly, I think she's a stronger person. (and the same with Bernie) Also, I believe Trump will have to watch himself as well, because if he went overboard with the attempts to bully, he'd be in danger of looking like he was bullying a woman and that could be incredibly bad optics. (like the time in the Senate debate where Rick Lazio tried to intimidate Hillary by standing next to the podium)

If Trump wins the GOP nomination, my bet is that he will take a real hard left to center (he's already doing it with planned parenthood and healthcare), walk back the racism and misogyny, and go on the charm offensive. He's literally going to say things like, "Of course I said that in the primary. That's what those yahoos needed to hear. But you and I both know I'm not going to do that" followed by a wink and a nudge. 

He has consistently bullied women though already. He has managed somehow to get along just fine in spite of saying terrible things about tons of women before and after running. He does and will continue to try and bully everyone who talks about him, debates him, or moderates a debate he is in until we can make him go away.

[zelticgar]

Of course! I was on the fence until he pledged to roll out a platform of forced "merry christmas" declarations. It's gonna be great!

[Stan the Man Baratheon]

15 minutes ago, Mandy said:

How is Trump even a discussion point for people with an IQ over 80?

What an incredibly TRUE generalization of Trump supporters. Source: My IQ is 1.

[Altherion]

14 minutes ago, Mandy said:

Many of the people who were in the audience at Bernie's event were also only there to see him and were also upset about the interruption.  I had to personally explain to several Bernie supporters why they shouldn't be upset at BLM for it.  There are real issues about inequality in this country and BLM is forcing people to hear them.

There are many issues about inequality and many others besides which are just as real. This is not an excuse for being uncivil.

Quote

How is Trump even a discussion point for people with an IQ over 80?

Trump gets more support from people whose education ended at high school, but lately he has been getting quite a bit even from post-graduates (yes, I know education is a poor proxy for intelligence, but there's nothing in the exit polls that's better correlated). There are reasons to support Trump -- if his opponent turns out to be Clinton and not Sanders, I may do it myself.

[Shryke]

13 minutes ago, Kay Fury said:

He has consistently bullied women though already. He has managed somehow to get along just fine in spite of saying terrible things about tons of women before and after running. He does and will continue to try and bully everyone who talks about him, debates him, or moderates a debate he is in until we can make him go away.

With a large slice of the Republican base, yes. But not with women. Or the general public.

The problem with saying "Trump is winning this thing now, why would he stop after the primary?" is that the GOP is both hamstrung by their own ideology in being unable to attack him from certain angles and the base he is winning is not the same as the people who vote in the general election.

The GOP primary base is crazysauce and a tiny slice of the actual GOP base itself, let alone the entire US electorate. This is as true now as it was 4 years ago and before that. That's why people are always talking about "tacking to the centre" or whatever.