The Marquis de Leech Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Game, set, match, Hillary, I think. This really was the make or break for Bernie, and (sadly) it was break. Clinton vs Trump, here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centrist Simon Steele Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 2 hours ago, alguien said: Simon, I just wanted to add to what others have said: I'm really impressed with your level of self-introspection. Thank you. Good arguments here too, though, got me to thinking about throwing my vote away in the first place. I'm glad it happened--I feel a lot better about things. As for the the primaries--it looks like Sanders is continuing to slip. I hope he has changed the awareness surrounding Wall Street--and maybe aspects of our hypercapitalist society will begin to change through congressional elections down the line. Those are equally important as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 One minor point that's annoying me. And to be clear, as I was about the Rubio nickname, I am not speaking as a moderator but as a person. That understood: can we please, please drop the 'Drumpf' thing? It is NOT his name. Now, I liked the John Oliver rant about Trump as much as any of you but the Drumpf bit was, heresy I know, just not really funny to start with. And it's even less funny now. If it was wrong (and it was) for Trump to mislabel someone, it's wrong for us to do it to him. This is not a case of Trump changing his name for vanity: he was born Trump. Even if he had changed his name, we should respect that. I'll tell you one good reason why. I have trans* friends that are constantly being mislabeled and told what their name 'really' is. It's offensive. But it's really hard to say we should fight for their right not to be mislabeled while dredging up some ancestral name for Trump and sticking that label on him, whether he accepts it or not, just because we don't like him. It's damaging, and it's unnecessary. It changes not one thing about how unpleasant an individual Trump is whether his name is Trump or Drumpf. Stick to political criticism and drop the silly name, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrackerNeil Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Republicans are in trouble, aren't they? Maybe all of Rubio's supporters will move to Cruz and let him take a majority, but since Cruz is almost as unpleasant that doesn't help them much either. Besides, every time someone drops out we're told that Trump will finally have a hard time, and that never happens. It's time for the party elites to accept that Trump has a LOT of support among rank-and-file Republicans--maybe enough to wrap up the nomination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altherion Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 15 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said: Republicans are in trouble, aren't they? Oh yes. No matter what happens from this point on, the Republican party is already severely damaged or maybe even permanently fractured. I don't just mean that Clinton will win the Presidency (at this point, this might actually be the best outcome for the Republicans), but that a large fraction of their base has finally seen that the politicians they elect continuously screw them over for the benefit of the corporate overlords. It's hard to see how they will put Humpty Dumpty together again. Now, if there was only a counterpart of Trump who would do the same thing to the Democrats... Some of the news sites are saying that the because Trump did not win Ohio, he might not get enough delegates to win outright. However, looking at FiveThirtyEight's path, it seems that he is still on-track (the summary shows 96%, but keep in mind that Missouri's results have not been included yet at all). For the Democrats, Clinton has the expected lead and is in fact outperforming expectations. Sanders looks like he's not that far behind, but at this point, it would take something big for him to catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Last night went just about as fantastically well as I could've dared hope. Trump knocked out Rubio and dealt a major blow to Cruz, while at the same time losing the one state he needed to to ensure that Kasich would stay in the race and keep splitting the anti-Trump vote. He'll keep racking up delegates and winning the winner-take-all states with a split opposition and there's nothing the rest of the party can do to stop him. I can only hope they realize that and actually go down the path of an 3rd party bid, but they gotta do it now. If they wait until after the convention it'll be too late. And on the Democratic side, looks like St. Louis (and Kansas City) had more votes in them than I thought, and that it'll be a clean sweep for Clinton. Sanders' is staying in, and, based on my Facebook feed at least, a lot of supporters still think he'll win the nomination. But he's truly toast (barring a major upheaval, like an indictment or health issue). The margins he needs to win from here on out are absurd, and they're only going to get worse as he keeps on not matching him. The primary schedule does look like he'll get a string wins for the next month, up until New York, which I'm sure he'll use to fundraise off of and continue to keep going; but they won't be nearly enough, and there's a real good chance Clinton will Arizona at least anyway. I would say that's fine. Let everyone vote, let Sanders play out the string. But my concern is just how much money he is raising. Its very impressive to say the least. And its money at this point that would be better served attacking Republicans in the general election than continuing to go after the eventual Democratic nominee. I can only hope that he does start to save some of his campaign chest and that his donors extend their giving to the eventual general election candidates (and not just Clinton; its about Democrats across the ballot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 A commentator from last night: "Getting past the racism, sexism and total lack of policy proposals, is Donald Trump electable?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: A commentator from last night: "Getting past the racism, sexism and total lack of policy proposals, is He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named electable?" The ridiculously polarised nature of modern US politics makes the electability thing a bit moot. Or it would do, with pretty much any other candidate. Trump though? It's the best motivational tool Democrats could have hoped for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 RBPL, The motivation argument scares me. It's wonderful right up to the point Trump wins. That said the modern Republican party is in need of fumigation. If Trump's rise doesn't prompt it nothing will and it needs to die a fast death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionAhaiReborn Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 8 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said: Well, I'm good and drink now. All I can do now is hope Clinton keeps her promises about not going after Social Security and does more an Wall Street that just talk tough. I'm not counting on it, but we shall see. At least we tried! I certainly don't trust Clinton's commitments on those (and other) issues, but I do think Sanders' run, and particularly his overwhelmingly strong showing among young people, is going to stiffen the rest of the Democratic Party's resolve to fight for progressive values. And there's also the question of what Sanders can get into the platform at the convention: They’re already prepping the fallback plan: 10 areas, including killing Obama’s trade deals and changing the super-delegate process that they’re going to organize around and try forcing into the Democratic platform. “Worst case, we’re going to Philadelphia with 1,500 delegates. Best case, we’re going to win,” Cohen said. “Either way, we’re going to change things.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NestorMakhnosLovechild Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I get that many times in politics you just have to say shit knowing it's not true. And this election cycle has, so far, seemed like an endless stream of losers trying to spin their losses into some kind of victory. But I cannot stand the complete and utter nonsense coming out of Kasich's campaign. He has ZERO SHOT at being the Republican nominee. It is obviously just not possible for him to score enough delegates to win on the first vote, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that the party establishment is going to knife Trump during a contested convention and hand the nomination over to someone whose showings in the primary have been DISMAL. I think it's pretty clear the party is going to unite, as best it as it can, behind Trump for the nomination. But in the off chance that they decided to hand it to someone else, the odds of them handing it to someone who hasn't even run in the primary is much, much better than them handing it to Kasich. It's just not going to happen. And I kind of like him on a personal level. He's affable. But I wanted to gag watching his teary-eyed victory speech in Ohio - where he won as a SITTING GOVERNOR with the entire party apparatus behind him. This is not an accomplishment. His is the LEAST credible spin job of any person in the race. Also, Sanders is done. He has no path and he simply cannot win by the numbers he needs to in order to overtake Clinton's lead in pledge delegates. By all means, he should continue to run, but he should be making some peace with Clinton and signaling to his supporters that a vote for her in the general is the right thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrackerNeil Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 1 hour ago, Fez said: Last night went just about as fantastically well as I could've dared hope. Trump knocked out Rubio and dealt a major blow to Cruz, while at the same time losing the one state he needed to to ensure that Kasich would stay in the race and keep splitting the anti-Trump vote. He'll keep racking up delegates and winning the winner-take-all states with a split opposition and there's nothing the rest of the party can do to stop him. I can only hope they realize that and actually go down the path of an 3rd party bid, but they gotta do it now. If they wait until after the convention it'll be too late. And on the Democratic side, looks like St. Louis (and Kansas City) had more votes in them than I thought, and that it'll be a clean sweep for Clinton. Sanders' is staying in, and, based on my Facebook feed at least, a lot of supporters still think he'll win the nomination. But he's truly toast (barring a major upheaval, like an indictment or health issue). The margins he needs to win from here on out are absurd, and they're only going to get worse as he keeps on not matching him. The primary schedule does look like he'll get a string wins for the next month, up until New York, which I'm sure he'll use to fundraise off of and continue to keep going; but they won't be nearly enough, and there's a real good chance Clinton will Arizona at least anyway. I would say that's fine. Let everyone vote, let Sanders play out the string. But my concern is just how much money he is raising. Its very impressive to say the least. And its money at this point that would be better served attacking Republicans in the general election than continuing to go after the eventual Democratic nominee. I can only hope that he does start to save some of his campaign chest and that his donors extend their giving to the eventual general election candidates (and not just Clinton; its about Democrats across the ballot). I know--it's like the Seven themselves heard my prayer! I don't worry too much about the money issue, RE: Democrats. Clinton and Obama raised tons of money against each other, but there was plenty left for the general. Actually, by continuing his campaign, Sanders is doing good things for the party: ramping up interest, getting people registered, etc. I say Bernie runs as long as he feels the need. Besides, he's bringing some welcome liberalism to the campaign; I may back Clinton but that doesn't mean she shouldn't be pushed a little. Or a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I feel like the air has gone out of this thread's balloon now... At least, briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 This story is all kinds of amazing. Apparently, in Illinois, at least on the Republican side, voters don't just vote for the candidate they want, they also see the names of the delegates supporting them. So they see something like John Smith (Donald Trump). Each congressional district get three delegates, and voters pick the three delegates they want. So anyway, there's a district where two of Trump's delegates won overwhelming but the other Trump delegate did much worse and ended up losing, and another where Trump only won one delegate but a second was very close and a third was much further behind. And it just so happens that the names of those two Trump proposed delegates that did much worse are Nabi Fakroddin and Raja Sadiq. Trump's supporters in those two districts are apparently so racist that they couldn't bring themselves to vote for those foreign sounding names, even though the ballot clearly said that they were Trump's delegates, and even as they overwhelmingly voted for Trump's other delegates. Which means that Trump has at least one and maybe two less delegates today than he should have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 4 minutes ago, Fez said: This story is all kinds of amazing. "Illinois Nazis." "I hate Illinois Nazis." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 8 hours ago, Kalbear said: Yep. And that whole winner take all thing makes it much bigger of a deal. He's only gotten about 37% of the total Repub vote but has like 65% of the delegates, now. On the math thing - at the very least, Clinton now holds a 314 delegate lead over Sanders. (this is likely to increase, as some of the delegates aren't proportioned out yet). There are 1946 delegates left to go. For Sanders to win, he needs to get at least 1130 of those delegates - or 58%, or on average a +16 win everywhere. For this to happen he needs to hit the demographic marks listed here +13. That means some odd things like this: CA +18 WA +46 UT +44 WI +30 It would also mean that Sanders could only (barely) lose two states - MD and DC. That's it. Any result worse than that puts him off track for the nomination. Seriously, he can win California 58-42 and that is essentially a win for Clinton. He can win Washington 70-30 and that is essentially a win for Clinton. The numbers get a lot worse when you include the Super Delegates. There are (roughly) 2,322 delegates left, and Sanders has to win 1,539 of them to get to 2,383. http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altherion Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 26 minutes ago, NestorMakhnosLovechild said: I get that many times in politics you just have to say shit knowing it's not true. And this election cycle has, so far, seemed like an endless stream of losers trying to spin their losses into some kind of victory. But I cannot stand the complete and utter nonsense coming out of Kasich's campaign. He has ZERO SHOT at being the Republican nominee. It is obviously just not possible for him to score enough delegates to win on the first vote, and there is absolutely no reason to believe that the party establishment is going to knife Trump during a contested convention and hand the nomination over to someone whose showings in the primary have been DISMAL. To be fair, he is not the only one trying to spin it this way. I've seen several articles in the media arguing that Kasich's win makes it difficult for Trump to win outright (example). Their delegate math is wrong -- they're ignoring the other delegates Trump won on March 15th -- but at least it looks like a concerted effort and not Kasich alone being delusional. Quote But I wanted to gag watching his teary-eyed victory speech in Ohio - where he won as a SITTING GOVERNOR with the entire party apparatus behind him. This is not an accomplishment. His is the LEAST credible spin job of any person in the race. Yes, that was kind of funny. After a long and savage battle, John Kasich has defeated Donald Trump in the only contest that matters... oh wait, all he won is his home state and even then by a smaller margin than, say, Cruz won Texas -- and this is the only state he has won so far. Quote Also, Sanders is done. He has no path and he simply cannot win by the numbers he needs to in order to overtake Clinton's lead in pledge delegates. By all means, he should continue to run, but he should be making some peace with Clinton and signaling to his supporters that a vote for her in the general is the right thing to do. He is done unless Clinton is indicted. I'd still give him better odds than Kasich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 34 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said: "Illinois Nazis." "I hate Illinois Nazis." "I've always loved you" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaxom 1974 Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 I wonder what things would have looked like if we'd just gotten a Bush/Kasich/Christie battle for the Republican nomination. You know, instead of the FULL clown car of 17 that started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bennis of the Brown Shield Posted March 16, 2016 Share Posted March 16, 2016 Trump tweets a new attack ad (?) against Hillary. Hahaha, this presidential election really is going to be something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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