Myshkin Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 Can anyone tell me if Stan is a troll or not? I haven't been able to figure it out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guy Kilmore Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 22 minutes ago, Myshkin said: Can anyone tell me if Stan is a troll or not? I haven't been able to figure it out yet. Believe in yourself Myshkin; search your heart and you will know truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Good win for Clinton in Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myshkin Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 The Hulkamaniac in me says Stan is probably a troll. Thanks guys for believing in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Myshkin Posted March 23, 2016 Author Share Posted March 23, 2016 Utah called for Sanders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ordos Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 I was watching the primary returns for a short time in the morning (because I love political games) when CNN International flipped to the terrorist attacks in Brussels and did not return to the election coverage. CNN in America probably did keep going. I like watching US election results on CNN because I consider their graphics and commentary the best. But when they refused to go back to the election coverage, I was forced to watch Fox News for more returns! I don't watch their election coverage because they are flooded with too many conservative contributors and weak progressives. Also, I do wonder why Indonesian cable TV airs Fox News... then I realized it's for moments like this for people like me! lol I know the other news is more important to international viewers, but yeah I was disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazydog7 Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Good God the longer this goes the more I think we should move the whole thread into the entertainment session. I mean the John Oliver stuff alone.... Then I realized that if you are feeling a bit down and need a laugh you can do your own Donald Trump joke. Think of it as a Mad-Lib but in verbal form. My own personal favorite is “I love bakers no one loves bakers more then me” but I suppose it would also work for butchers and candlestick makers. If we take the analogy to its logical conclusion not only would “The Donald” build a bathtub for the Butcher, The Baker and the Candlestick maker he would get them to pay for it Also I am posting this here one of the things that has been missing from politics for years an extremely effective ad http://time.com/4258101/anti-trump-ad-women-quotes/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 10 hours ago, Kalbear said: And on tonight's stuff, here again are the targets for Sanders and the projected values based on basic demographic data. AZ: needs Sanders +20, expected Sanders -6 UT needs Sanders +44, projected Sanders +18 ID: needs Sanders +40, projected Sanders +14 If Sanders can exceed his projected he's at least not as far behind, but realistically he needs to start winning big soon, and Arizona is probably his most realistic bet for bigger wins. There's still a few outstanding precincts in Utah and Arizona, but it looks like the margins are: Arizona: Clinton +18 Utah: Sanders +60 Idaho: Sanders + 57 Not every delegate has been allocated yet. But so far, its Sanders with a net of 6 delegates on the night, with another 12 delegates in Arizona, 10 delegates in Utah, and 1 delegate in Idaho to be allocated. Sanders has usually done very well in extremely white states and done extremely well in most caucus states; so its not too surprising that he dominated in Utah and Idaho (although the margins are still a bit overwhelming). Its a good reminder though that a lot of states can't be easily extrapolated from where the national race might be; there's too many other factors involved. Bottom line though, those are really good wins for him and suggest that he has some other really good wins left too. On the other hand, Clinton had a big win herself in Arizona; which mostly mitigates Sanders' net delegate gain. More importantly, its a strong indicator that she'll win California as well when the time comes, since the demographics and voting patterns on the Democratic side are so similar. And Sanders doesn't need to just win California he needs a huge win there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionAhaiReborn Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 7 minutes ago, Fez said: On the other hand, Clinton had a big win herself in Arizona; which mostly mitigates Sanders' net delegate gain. More importantly, its a strong indicator that she'll win California as well when the time comes, since the demographics and voting patterns on the Democratic side are so similar. And Sanders doesn't need to just win California he needs a huge win there. One big difference is that independents can vote in California. Doesn't mean Sanders will win it, but that's been important for him. On the other hand, there are a bunch of closed primaries to come in other big states, so he'll probably lose them, putting the race even further out of reach by the time of the California primary than it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 2 minutes ago, OnionAhaiReborn said: One big difference is that independents can vote in California. Doesn't mean Sanders will win it, but that's been important for him. On the other hand, there are a bunch of closed primaries to come in other big states, so he'll probably lose them, putting the race even further out of reach by the time of the California primary than it is now. True. Although Sanders doesn't need to just win California, he needs a big win there. And as well as he usually does with independents, if Clinton is going to be in the +15 to +20 range among registered Democrats, I don't think it'll be close to enough. Especially since the Republican primary is the same day and will almost certainly be the deciding factor as to whether Trump gets a delegate majority or the convention is contested; so a lot of independents may have more interest voting on that side. Still, that's months away still; lots of time to get a clearer picture. First up though is this Saturday, which I suspect will be a more decisive night for Sanders, even if none of the margins match Utah or Idaho. Although there's been no polling, so who knows for sure; and Hawaii and Alaska are idiosyncratic enough that I'd believe just about any result out of them. Washington's the big prize though, and he should get a solid win there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OnionAhaiReborn Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 3 minutes ago, Fez said: Although there's been no polling, so who knows for sure; and Hawaii and Alaska are idiosyncratic enough that I'd believe just about any result out of them. O'Malley resurgence imminent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 15 hours ago, Jaxom 1974 said: So he really didn't address it at all according to that link. He just called her names and attempted to deflect from the substance of the message. Isn't that what he always does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ormond Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 15 hours ago, Hereward said: I'm not. The vaunted Puritans didn't flee to America for religious freedom. They fled because they were outraged that the Church of England was not willing to totally refuse the religious freedom of people they disapproved of. I really don't think the Puritans are "vaunted" by most Americans any more. The Pilgrims who landed in Plymouth are still "vaunted", but I think most Americans now ignore connections between them and the Puritans who arrived a bit later. I think most Americans who paid attention in school are quite aware of the Puritan persecution of Quakers, Baptists, and other minority religious folk within colonial Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BloodRider Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Quote I think there is validity within state level polls and throwing away data points is extremely bad practice and makes polling seem like a clickbait scam rather than a science. Wow. This is borderline conspiracy thinking here. There is no throwing away of the data points, just an honest assessment of how much a data point reflects on the real question you want to get to. Simply put polls are a snapshot in time. Always have been, always will be. It should not be a surprise that when you ask someone a question about what they might do, you will get a more accurate answer the closer to the time of the action you ask them. So for example, if I want to find out what will be the most popular job for 20-30 year olds will be in 2030, I could go and ask 5 to 15 year olds what they want to be when they grow up. But it would certainly not be bad practice to discount the predictive value of that data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 I didn't think California was open for independents for the president. It's open for everyone else but not that, iirc. Eta: I was right and wrong - the Republican one is closed, the Democrat one is open. It likely means that Sanders won't have quite the advantage since a lot of the independents were repubs crossing over to vote, which they probably won't do as much this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 3 hours ago, Fez said: On the other hand, Clinton had a big win herself in Arizona; which mostly mitigates Sanders' net delegate gain. More importantly, its a strong indicator that she'll win California as well when the time comes, since the demographics and voting patterns on the Democratic side are so similar. And Sanders doesn't need to just win California he needs a huge win there. Sanders will win CA 1, CA2, CA 3, CA 4, CA5, CA 8, CA 9, CA 11, CA 12, CA 13, CA 18, CA 20, CA 25, and CA 51 for certain. that's fourteen districts, mostly northern and rural california. Clinton will win most of los angeles and southern california, in part because minority populations are more distributed amongst Los Angeles districts than the more segregated congressional districts of the Bay Area. I have no idea who will be more popular in san diego, but those districts are also less segregated. There's probably about 14 districts that are a toss up between Clinton and Sanders, and about twenty districts that are strongly Clinton. https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/CA ... Dammit, I just realized it's the republican primary that allocates by congressional district, please disregard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 I think that the best case scenario of a Trump candidacy is better (for the country) than the best case scenario for a Cruz Presidency. Because a Cruz presidency + Republican congress is going to do all manner of horrible things, whereas a Trump presidency + Republican congress could quite possibly just be a disorganized mess, where Trump is ineffective, but relatively ineffectual. However, the worst case scenario for a Trump Presidency is worse than a worst case scenario for a Cruz Presidency. Because while Cruz hates Congress, he is still bound somewhat by party norms and thus more predictable. Whereas who the hell knows what Trump would do in the face of crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Channel4s-JonSnow Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Just a question.. what happens in the event of a Military Coup in the US? Could that ever happen if Trump gets elected?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted March 23, 2016 Share Posted March 23, 2016 Of course, all the California talk is very probably moot anyway. The state awards a massive 475 pledged delegates. However, Clinton currently has a 300+ delegate lead. That'll likely get chipped away by Sanders down to maybe 240 over the next few votes. But then it will ballon out to well over 400+, probably over 450+, after New York on April 19 and the April 26 closed primaries. After that, it's over. Probably he nets a few delegates between then and June 7, but there's not many contests in there and most of them are closed votes. On June 7, Sanders should net some delegates from the Dakotas and Montana, but that's a wash from Clinton's likely big win in New Mexico. She probably also wins New Jersey. There's a decent chance Clinton's lead will be larger than the total number of delegates even in California, and of course, even if Sanders did win the state he's not getting anywhere near all the delegates. And then the primary season ends with a Clinton blowout in DC; not that she'll net too many delegates from it. Unless Sanders gets to a near draw or better on April 26, I really hope he drops out that night. He almost certainly won't, and he's got more than enough money to keep going if he wants. But if Clinton wins that night, he may literally mathematically not have a path to victory; rather than just being extremely, extremely unlikely to have a path. And the tail end of the primary season just stretches out so long, past the time when the party needs to start unifying again. Also, the sooner Clinton can legally convert her various campaign organizations from primary organizations to general election organizations, and start fundraising and spending for the general election, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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