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Sly Wren

How Tywin Took Lyanna with the Porcupine Knight

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How Tywin Took Lyanna with the Porcupine Knight

VERY SHORT VERSION: Tywin wanted Aerys dead and Rhaegar as king. He tried using the Defiance of Duskendale to achieve this. It almost worked. Then Aerys took Jaime. Given his ruthless history, Tywin would do almost anything to destroy enemies. Getting others to take Lyanna and blame Rhaegar would start a war to depose Aerys while letting Tywin play both sides. ETA: Even if Lyanna had run away from her attackers (as Arya does) and was later found by Rhaegar, Tywin could just lie and send word to Brandon anyway. 

Tywin likely used the knights shamed by the Knight of the Laughing Tree to do this: Two Towers, Pitchfork, and Porcupine. ETA: Whether Rhaegar fully knew Tywin's plans or not, at some point he went along with the plan. Because, one way or another, Rhaegar needed his father off the throne.

Part I: Set Up and Shout Outs

I’ve argued that the Bael Tale strongly suggests that Lyanna was taken for politics and spite, not love or prophecy. And that Aerys fits this Bael type. I stand by that argument—Aerys is a good candidate. But, as others have argued before me, Tywin also fits as the Bael-like plotter waging a long-term feud.

@Feather Crystal and @Lady Dyanna first introduced me to the idea that the Lannisters might be behind Lyanna’s kidnapping. I resisted—my apologies to both of them. Lady Dyanna’s thread is hereFeather Crystal’s essay is no longer posted—but she’s more than earned a huge shout out from me.

ETA: @Feather Crystal has just put up a new version of her Tywin essay. It's been a few months since I read her original version (no longer posted), so I'm not sure how much she's changed. While Feather and I disagree on some points, we absolutely agree that Twyin had a hand in starting Robert's Rebellion and he used others to do his dirty work.

@J. Stargaryen has been arguing for a while that Rhaegar had political motives in taking Lyanna.

 

@Rippounet    has made similar arguments. 

And @Voice argues that Rhaegar wanted Jaime to kill Aerys.

In short—my speculation was sparked by a lot of other people’s ideas.

Disclaimer: I do not assert that the posters listed above agree with the following hypotheticals. 

Part II: Tywin and Aerys: A Westerosi Death Match.

1. Aerys rejected Tywin’s proposal to marry Cersei to Rhaegar. He refused to appoint Jaime as Rhaegar’s squire and appointed Tywin’s enemies instead. Aerys didn’t call Tywin a craven as the Stark in Winterfell called Bael. But he did call Proud Lion Tywin a “servant.” Ouch.

2. Tywin tried to use the Darklyns’ rebellion to depose Aerys without getting his hands dirty. If  storming the town had gotten Aerys killed, Tywin could crown Rhaegar while playing the loyalist. With Cersei as Rhaegar’s queen. It almost worked. But even in failure, Tywin had plausible deniability. 

Quote

Most of the small council were with the Hand outside Duskendale at the juncture, and several of the argued against Lord Tywin's plan on the grounds that such an attack would almost certainly goad Lord Darklyn into putting King Aerys to death. "He may or he may not," Tywin lannister reportedly replied, "but if he does, we have a better king right her." Whereupon he raised a hand to indicate Prince Rhaegar.

Scholars have debated ever since as to Lord Tywin's intent. Did he believe Lord Darklyn would back down? Or was he, in truth, willing, and perhaps even eager, to see Aerys die so that Prince Rhaegar might take the Iron Throne? World Book: The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II

3. Jaime’s appointment to the Kingsguard broke everything beyond repair.

Quote

Jaime's investiture freed him from Lysa Tully. Elsewise, nothing went as planned. His father had never been more furious. He could not object openly—Cersei had judged that correctly—but he resigned the Handship on some thin pretext and returned to Casterly Rock, taking his daughter with him. Storm, Jaime II

 

4. Tywin wanted Aerys dead. But openly killing Aerys would undermine his ability to rule with King Rhaegar and make Cersei queen.

5. At both Duskendale and the Red Wedding, Tywin used others’ motives to destroy enemies and give himself cover. Duskendale failed. But Tywin got the Red Wedding right.

6. So, after Aerys took Jaime, Tywin likely decided to scale things up: start a war to destroy Aerys and put the Lannisters in power. 

Part III: Using Other People’s Grievances to Start Your Own War

1. So, would Tywin incite rebellion by taking Lyanna himself? Perhaps as Catelyn took Tyrion in the Riverlands near Harrenhal. Seizing a chance opportunity for revenge.

2. But Tywin had no known grievance against the Starks at the time. Plus, Catelyn took Tyrion on  “evidence” from Baelish, who wanted to start a war. Baelish, like Tywin at Duskendale and the Red Wedding, used Catelyn’s motives to further his own aims with Tyrion’s “arrest.” And Cat had no idea she was being used.

3. Tywin, like Baelish, needed to keep his hands clean so he could play both sides as he had at Duskendale. If Rhaegar lost, Tywin needed to be in a position to plausibly join the rebels.

4. So, Tywin could use someone else’s motives to incite war. But whom to use? The Starks, Tullys, Baratheons, and Arryns were intermarrying and uniting. Aerys was paranoid of potential threats to his reign. If Tywin could get these houses and Aerys angry enough at each other, he could start his war.

5. Lyanna’s kidnapping and Brandon’s reaction led to Aerys’ killing Rickard and Brandon. War ensued. Very effective. No wonder Baelish used a similar technique.

6. So, who actually took Lyanna? Whose grievance could Tywin exploit to keep his hands clean? The Knight of the Laughing Tree’s opponents give us a potential clue. 

CONTINUED IN NEXT POST

Edited by Sly Wren
Format Madness and adding options

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Part IV: The Defeated Knights and the Laughing Tree Starks

1. Martin takes the time to identify the defeated knights and squires by their sigils. There’s no reason to tell readers that unless those knights’ identities matter.

2. The Knight of the Laughing Tree didn’t just defeat unpopular knights while common folk cheered. He publically shamed these knights and their squires. “Teach your squires honor.”

3. Reportedly, Aerys thought that the Knight was Jaime. No way Tywin was so foolish. He would soon hear the story of Lyanna’s scattering of the squires and discern that the Knight was likely a Stark.

4. Three knights shamed by a mystery knight with no chance of satisfaction. Inciting them to vengeance could get Lyanna taken. And these knights’ houses all later helped Tywin destroy the Starks.

A. The Knight of the Two Towers: House Frey. The Freys betrayed Robb entirely. Perhaps the Red Wedding was not the first time the Freys attacked the Starks to Tywin’s benefit.

  • ·      Walder Frey loathed being looked down on by the great houses. Hoster Tully refused a Frey bride for his heir, Edmure. Jon Arryn refused to foster Walder’s grandsons at the Eyrie—Arryn fostered Ned and Robert, though.
  • ·      These great houses “insulted” Walder Frey. Tywin could easily convince Walder to take them down a peg—for the right assurances. Just look at what Walder did at the Red Wedding.
  • ·      The novels imply that Freys and crannogmen despise each other, with Freys “and other fools” (as Jojen puts it) invading the Neck and ending up drowned. The Freys might want revenge for Starks’ support of the “bog devils.”
  • ·      The Freys are also related to the Lannisters through Gemma. And if Catelyn is right, taking a member of a great house in the Riverlands is easier to pull off with Frey help.

She ignored him, turning to the large party in blue and grey. They were the heart of the matter; there were more than twenty of them. "I know your sigil as well: the twin towers of Frey. How fares your good lord, sers?" Game, Catelyn V

B. The Pitchfork Knight: House Haigh. Haighs are Frey vassals. Harys Haigh (with a Frey mother) is with Roose Bolton at Harrenhal, openly doubting Robb’s chances. Harys “helps” at the Red Wedding, happily embracing Frey treachery.

C. The Porcupine Knight: House Blount. House Blount from the Crownlands has no clear tie to the Freys. But the only Blount named in any of the books is made a Knight of the Kingsguard after Robert’s Rebellion. Currently, he is completely unqualified for the job.

  • ·      Boros Blount of the Kingsguard happily beats Sansa (a Stark maid like Lyanna) for Joffrey. Sansa thinks him the worst of Joffrey’s Kingsguard. Which is saying a lot.
  • ·      Boros isn’t just vile. He cravenly gave up Tommen to Tyrion’s men without a fight.
  • ·      Cersei is so furious about Tommen’s kidnapping that she strips Boros of his white cloak for cowardice and treason and has him thrown into the Rosby dungeon.
  • ·      But Tywin reinstates Brute Boros the Useless to replace the Hound. Why on earth reinstate the man who gave up your grandson without a fight?
  • ·      When Catelyn takes Tyrion, Tywin sets the Mountain on the Riverlands in revenge. Tywin hanged Masha Heddle on a gibbet outside her inn for “allowing” armed men to take Tyrion. Tywin loathes Tyrion. But he still went to these lengths for revenge.
  • ·      Tommen, however, is Joffrey’s heir. Tywin doesn’t loathe him. If he went to such lengths over Tyrion, why would Tywin reinstate the aging craven who let Tommen be taken?
  • ·      Jaime thinks Boros is a “paper shield.” Multiple characters note his cowardice. There are plenty of younger, more able men who are willing to be Tywin’s lackeys.
  • ·      Boros’ reappointment makes no sense unless Boros Blount has earned Tywin’s trust. Because Tywin trusted him before.

Cersei had stripped Ser Boros of his white cloak for failing to die in the defense of Prince Tommen when Bronn had seized the boy on the Rosby road. The man was no friend of Tyrion's, but after that he likely hated Cersei almost as much. I suppose that's something. "Blount is a blustering coward," he said amiably.

"Is he? Oh dear. Still, the knights of the Kingsguard do serve for life, traditionally. Perhaps Ser Boros will prove braver in future. He will no doubt remain very loyal."

"To my father," said Tyrion pointedly. Storm, Tyrion II

  • ·      Given Boros’ jousting skills, there’s a good chance that he was the defeated “porcupine knight.” Jorah boasts that he defeated “even” Ser Boros Blount.

"I fight as well as any man, Khaleesi, but I have never been a tourney knight. Yet with Lynesse's favor knotted round my arm, I was a different man. I won joust after joust. Lord Jason Mallister fell before me, and Bronze Yohn Royce. Ser Ryman Frey, his brother Ser Hosteen, Lord Whent, Strongboar, even Ser Boros Blount of the Kingsguard, I unhorsed them all. In the last match, I broke nine lances against Jaime Lannister to no result, and King Robert gave me the champion's laurel" Clash, Dany I

  • ·      What might an excellent jouster do if he could get vengeance on a knight who publically insulted him? Especially since Brute Boros likes hitting little girls.

5. So, in the same novel (Storm) where we hear about the Knight of the Laughing Tree’s defeating and insulting knights, we also see Tywin use those knights’ families against the Starks at the Red Wedding. We also see Tywin reinstate the Porcupine Kingsguard after an epic failure that Tywin would have killed anyone else for (as he killed Masha Heddle).

6. As I said, Martin has no reason to tell us whom specifically the Knight of the Laughing Tree insulted unless it matters. All three losers end up Tywin’s lackeys used against Starks.

7. I think these houses helped Tywin start a war by getting revenge on the Starks who defeated and humiliated them, likely without knowing Tywin’s overall plan. 

Part V: But Wait! Rhaegar “fell upon” Lyanna himself. And Tywin liked Rhaegar, right?

1. The World Book says, “Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark” in the Riverlands not ten leagues from Harrenhal. But Catelyn doesn’t take Tyrion herself. She orders him seized in King Robert’s name. With help from Freys and others. Then takes him to a safer place.  Martin is showing us exactly how Lyanna, daughter of a great house, could be “taken.”

2. If Tywin’s flunkeys took Lyanna in Rhaegar’s name that should jumpstart the rumor that Rhaegar took her. They’d say Rhaegar ordered it to keep the onus off themselves.

3. ETA: Or, if Tywin's flunkeys tried to take Lyanna and she ran (like Arya runs when Lannister men come for her), she'd still be missing. For angering the Starks, a "missing Lyanna" would do as well as a "taken" one.

4. Then someone just needed to alert Brandon—a “pink letter” saying that Rhaegar was actually behind Lyanna’s kidnapping. That would explain why Brandon acts before the Lord of Winterfell does. Tywin would want Wild Brandon to act rashly before Rickard could devise a wiser response.

5. ETA: Just as Baelish had Lysa send Cat a letter, Tywin couldn't know how exactly it would all play out. But, like Baelish, Tywin only needed to get things rolling. At some point, this would blow up.

6. But why would Tywin undermine Rhaegar like this if he wanted Rhaegar on the throne? Because he needed to play both sides, as at Duskendale. He was starting a war. Failure was possible. My guess:

Plan A: Tywin and Rhaegar sit out the Rebellion until the opportune moment. Then Rhaegar sweeps in and saves the day. Tywin helps oust Aerys at a council. Or even gets Aerys killed for Rhaegar. Rhaegar would be king with a fragile queen—so, Cersei would soon be queen.

Plan B: If Rhaegar and the entire royal family fell, Tywin could swoop in, join the rebels, kill Aerys and Rhaegar’s family, and marry Cersei to Robert.

7. Plan B is precisely what Tywin did. NOTE: both Tywin and Rhaegar sat out the war until the very end. That left Aerys vulnerable and positioned Rhaegar to be the savior. Same with Tywin. The Freys also stayed out until after the key battle. Really seems like this was a plan.

CONTINUED IN JUST ONE MORE POST

Edited by Sly Wren

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Part VI: Then where was Lyanna? Multiple options.

1. This part gets even more speculative. It ties into my argument that Jaime echoed Rhaegar. Jaime wants to save Sansa. He thinks she killed Joff. He knows her escape undermines his family. But he wants her safe. For honor. Rhaegar might have wanted the same for Lyanna.

2. ETA: Or there's Arya--running from the Lannister men who try to take her in King's Landing and ending up being found by various "sworn brothers"--Yoren, Beric (who has a lot of Dayne imagery to him and whom Sansa idealizes) and then the Hound (who is also close to Sansa). If Rhaegar and Arthur found Lyanna, I could see Rhaegar seeing this as an opportunity.

And the men who tried to take Lya could just lie and send word to Brandon that Rhaegar took her. For starting a war, missing-Lyanna would work just as well as captive-Lyanna.

3. Or, there’s the case of Baelish’s saving Sansa. While Baelish “saves” Sansa, he also plans to use her after the war he helped to start. Rhaegar might have done the same with Lyanna.

4. Rhaegar and his friends could have gotten Lyanna away from those who physically took her (Frey, Haigh, and/or Blount) with or without Tywin’s help. Why not return her to Winterfell? For the same reason Baelish gives Sansa at his unnamed tower—it’s not safe yet.

5. Plus, Rhaegar wants to come out as the Hero King who saved Westeros. As Tywin’s friend, using Lyanna to gain post-war peace would definitely have crossed Rhaegar’s mind.

5. Or perhaps, like Beric, Rhaegar and his men have too much war business to get Lyanna (so like Arya) straight home. They might stay in various places, hiding Lyanna under an alias. Then get her somewhere safe and wait until they can emerge as victors.

Part VII: Why would Rhaegar go along with this?

1. Why wouldn’t Rhaegar just tell the Starks that he has Lyanna? Because, one way or another, Rhaegar needs his father off that throne. Wars help with that. If Rhaegar comes in and wins the glorious battle after his father’s epic failure, he can unite the Kingdoms.

Quote

Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime's shoulder. "When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but . . . well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return." Feast, Jaime I

 

2. Rhaegar likely knew, as did his mentor Tywin, that planning for multiple contingencies ensured to the best outcome. Like Tywin, he sat out most of the war. If Rhaegar won, he’d be the Trident-winning, Lyanna-rescuing hero. He’d depose his father and make peace with the north.

3. If Aerys lost, Rhaegar could swoop in as the anti-Aerys, Lyanna-rescuing hero and still potentially broker peace. Placing all the blame on Aerys for killing Brandon and Rickard.

4. But how is Rhaegar a hero if he’s in on the kidnapping? Wouldn’t Lyanna know? Maybe. Maybe not. Baelish largely hides his actions from Sansa. She knows very little. If Rhaegar “rescued” Lyanna as Baelish rescues Sansa, she might not know that Rhaegar and/or Tywin started the war.

5. And, if Tywin had Lyanna taken without Rhaegar’s knowledge, Tywin could sell Rhaegar on someone else as the villain—IE: Aerys. Aerys was wroth over the Laughing Tree Knight. He sent Rhaegar to look for him. It might not be hard to persuade Rhaegar that Mad Aerys would send someone else to take a Stark after figuring out the knight was a Stark.

6. Rhaegar went to the Trident to be the hero. He planned on deposing Aerys when he won. That may very well be be why Rhaegar, like Tywin, sat the war out.

Part VIII: Summing Up

1. Tywin and Rhaegar both wanted Aerys off of the throne.

2. Tywin previously used a smaller rebellion to try to achieve this by playing both sides—others get their hands dirty while he has plausible deniability.

3. Aerys pushed Tywin much too far when he took Jaime.

4. The knights humiliated by the Knight of the Laughing Tree are all tied to Tywin and his attacks on the Starks.  And the Freys in the Riverlands are in an ideal position to help take Lyanna and start a war.

5. Rhaegar’s and Tywin’s both sitting out the war makes it sound like a plan. And we know from both Sansa and Arya that Stark maids stuck in a political quagmire don’t always fully understand the politics going on around them. If Rhaegar, like Baelish or even Beric, rescued Lyanna, he’d have a good bargaining chip.

6. All of this is speculation—obviously. But given the evidence in the novels, the idea that Tywin orchestrated Lyanna’s kidnapping to start a war, with or without Rhaegar’s prior knowledge, has to be a viable option.

The End.

Edited by Sly Wren
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If you think Tywin planned the kidnapping of Lyanna could also the father of Jon Snow be another? Maybe one of those unsavoury knights took "revenge" on Lyanna?

Jon Haigh?

Jon Frey?

Jon Blount?

Jon Lannister? "Tywin"

Edited by norwaywolf123

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This makes a lot of sense.

The people who captured Lyanna didn´t even have to do it in the name of the prince, but in the name of the King, and most people who heard the news would still probably put some share of responsibility on both of them.

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This seems logical but doesn't explain why Rhaegar would leave the three Kingsguard to protect Lyanna at the Tower of Joy. He wouldn't leave them there unless she was going to have a royal baby.

Even if they were just there to protect her, there wouldn't be a need to keep all three Kingsguard there. Rhaegar could just leave one of them there and take the other two along with him.

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7 minutes ago, Beacon said:

This seems logical but doesn't explain why Rhaegar would leave the three Kingsguard to protect Lyanna at the Tower of Joy. He wouldn't leave them there unless she was going to have a royal baby.

Even if they were just there to protect her, there wouldn't be a need to keep all three Kingsguard there. Rhaegar could just leave one of them there and take the other two along with him.

Maybe he wanted to keep the kingsguard away from Aerys?

Maybe Lyanna was gangbanged and did not know who the father was? Rhaegar, Arthur Dayne, Oswell Whent, Gerold Hightower, one of those knights who kidnapped her might have shared in a gangbang? But Lyanna survived and when she was going to Casterly Rock for revenge against Tywin for setting the kidnapping up she was attacked by rapers but rescued by Jaime and Tyrion. She went under the psuedonym "Tysha" and seduced Tyrion the dwarf son of lord Tywin who just wanted to be loved by someone. She did this to get closer to Tywin. When Tywin found out he had to teach her a lesson, she was later sent to a whorehouse and now works for Petyr Baelish as his private whore. Littlefinger and Lyanna has the girlfriend experience this is why Littlefinger is so smug around Ned Stark. Not becouse he took both the Tully girls virginity but becouse he has Ned's sister when he wants and how he wants. Lyanna is basicly his sexslave! She is going to be presented by Littlefinger inorder to cancel Sansa's marriage to Tyrion, and to tell Jon Snow hos is father is.

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I see Rhaegar going along with the plan for two possible and different reasons-

In case the theory regarding Jon being a Targaryen is true, Rhaegar could be taken by the idea of The Prince That Was Promised and realise he was destined to win.

In case Jon is Robert´s son ( :P ), Rhaegar might believe he has the bargaining chip to end the war cutting the gordian knot - he would deliver Lyanna and the kid back, depose his father for his cruel acts against the Starks and rule a kingdom reunified by him with Tywin as his Hand. Except Robert doesn´t let him speak.

Either way, the Kingsguard protecting the ToJ could be explained both by the value of the heir/bargaining chip and by leaving the King intentionally exposed.

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9 minutes ago, NutBurz said:

I see Rhaegar going along with the plan for two possible and different reasons-

In case the theory regarding Jon being a Targaryen is true, Rhaegar could be taken by the idea of The Prince That Was Promised and realise he was destined to win.

In case Jon is Robert´s son ( :P ), Rhaegar might believe he has the bargaining chip to end the war cutting the gordian knot - he would deliver Lyanna and the kid back, depose his father for his cruel acts against the Starks and rule a kingdom reunified by him with Tywin as his Hand. Except Robert doesn´t let him speak.

Either way, the Kingsguard protecting the ToJ could be explained both by the value of the heir/bargaining chip and by leaving the King intentionally exposed.

Then why did Ned not atleest tell Robert? Maybe Ned don't know who Jon Snow's father is?

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13 minutes ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Then why did Ned not atleest tell Robert? Maybe Ned don't know who Jon Snow's father is?

Maybe not. We don´t know what he found in the ToJ. If we let ourselves be influenced by the series, it´s not hard to assume that one of the Kingsguard might have been tasked with killing Lyanna in case everything else went wrong. Burning evidence.

I think it´s also fair to assume that if she was not in labor when he found her, but simply held hostage, that the baby would be taken elsewhere with more comfort, in either scenarios.

 

In my own little universe where Jon is a Baratheon born of rape, Ned bringing up the fact that the event produced a child would be akward at least, in case he even knew it. We see in the first book Tyrion saying, and Jon remembering later, that "most men would rather deny a hard truth than face it".

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 Really well done, as always SlyWren.

 

 There are a few things I can't quite reconcile though:

 

"2. Rhaegar likely knew, as did his mentor Tywin, that planning for multiple contingencies ensured to the best outcome. Like Tywin, he sat out most of the war. If Rhaegar won, he’d be the Trident-winning, Lyanna-rescuing hero. He’d depose his father and make peace with the north.

3. If Aerys lost, Rhaegar could swoop in as the anti-Aerys, Lyanna-rescuing hero and still potentially broker peace. Placing all the blame on Aerys for killing Brandon and Rickard.

 

4. But how is Rhaegar a hero if he’s in on the kidnapping? Wouldn’t Lyanna know? Maybe. Maybe not. Baelish largely hides his actions from Sansa. She knows very little. If Rhaegar “rescued” Lyanna as Baelish rescues Sansa, she might not know that Rhaegar and/or Tywin started the war."

 Isn't the point that, in Tywin's narrative above, everyone 'knows' Rhaegar was the kidnapper? That's what kicked it off. So he's already a villain in the eyes of many for starting a war foolishly. And if he says he didn't kidnap her, but rather rescued her, who would he be rescuing her from? Tywin wouldn't allow himself to be fingered as the culprit.


"5. And, if Tywin had Lyanna taken without Rhaegar’s knowledge, Tywin could sell Rhaegar on someone else as the villain—IE: Aerys. Aerys was wroth over the Laughing Tree Knight. He sent Rhaegar to look for him. It might not be hard to persuade Rhaegar that Mad Aerys would send someone else to take a Stark after figuring out the knight was a Stark."

 This might work. Tywin would have to play Rhaegar, and also find a way to get them both coming out smelling like roses. He would trick Rhaegar into believing someone else kidnapped Lyanna, and arrange for him to rescue her from these people.

... but then, why take her to Dorne? Why not stop the fighting if he had rescued her?

 It doesn't add up to me.

 

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Why would Tywin and Rhaegar want to go through all this trouble? They could simply poison or assassinate Aerys using someone from Braavos. That way their honour too would not be questioned or be labelled as Kinslayer/Kingslayer. 

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11 minutes ago, delspark said:

Why would Tywin and Rhaegar want to go through all this trouble? They could simply poison or assassinate Aerys using someone from Braavos. That way their honour too would not be questioned or be labelled as Kinslayer/Kingslayer. 

 

Because people are frustrated they figured out the plot twist 10 years ago and need to do something until WoW is released? No other reason really.

But yeah the disposal of a king does not need to be that messy, even Cersei managed it.

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Awesome job as always @Sly Wren. You know that I'm a bit prejudiced in this regard, but I definitely think that you're onto something. I don't have a whole lot of time right now. Imagine that? I plan to add more over at TLH later, but wonder if you've thought about looking at Tywin's chapters too. I'm seeing more evidence there. 

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Superbly put together Sly Wren. As Lady Dyanna said before, it seems that your posts are onto something (as were the others who posted of this before). Tywin wasn't a man to sit by and have his name slighted by others (at least, not with an 'end-game' in the works and his 'actions' against lords who slighted the Lannister name). 

There is certainly a lot to take into consideration, and is certainly plausible.

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