Is Dany really Dany?

[nanother]

On 2016. 09. 16. at 7:14 AM, Ygrain said:

Amen to that. I really can't imagine why anyone thinks this should be good writing.

Indeed - that's the only way it could work, with Viserys not knowing and the baby swapped almost instantly. However, this sinks the whole lemongate - Dany couldn't have been swapped after birth and simultaneously living in Dorne.

 

I recall such information, as well, but I'd say that Dany's memories are too detailed for that (e.g. Darry's soft hands), and given the above, she would be an infant. 

It still doesn't explain why Stannis or Robert believed there was a babe - well, of course, Varys could have fed them false information beforehands, but I don't think that Stannis wouldn't realize something was very wrong if he was enquiring about a child that never existed

- Which leads us back to Dany being swapped very early on and the lemongate losing the reason for its existence.

That is a fair point but the rock that sank it is above :-)

 

On 2016. 09. 16. at 8:51 AM, Black Crow said:

My grandfather died when I was about two going on three. Aside from photographs I do have a memory of him - though why I link that memory with him I really don't know - which amounts to nothing more than being held against a brown waistcoat with thin, lighter coloured stripes.

I offer this because Dany's memories of Darry, without the aid of photographs, although incomplete are much stronger which suggest that he was with her rather later in life.

The idea is that Dany is getting her memories mixed up, early memories from Dorne are getting superimposed on her memories with Viserys, in particular (or the other way around). I agree that the whole memory (complete with red door, lemon tree, (f?)Darry, servants stealing money) being from when she was two-ish would push credibility, even if we account for Martin not necessarily adhering to RL constraints. But I would not find it hard to accept if the image of the red door turned out to be from such an early age, or maybe even younger.

BTW, I'm fairly sure Dany's Darry is the real thing, and therefor that part of the memory is indeed from Braavos - between a master-at-arms whose callouses receded when he stopped practising due to illness, and a maester who bellows orders and terrorises servants from his sickbed, I'm inclined to go with the former.

The bit about being kicked out after servants stole their money is also bound to be from Braavos. For one, it doesn't sound like something she actually remembers in detail, more likely she was told at some point that this was the reason they had to leave. Also, she wouldn't have been kicked out from her Dornish home due to lack of money - she'd have been transferred to Viserys to replace his lost (dead, presumably) sister.

So, that leaves images of a big stone house with red door in a field of grass, the lemon tree outside the window, and the wooden beams with carved animal heads as possibly originating from earlier.

 

19 hours ago, Ygrain said:

That is an interesting idea! Though, I am still inclined to believe that the dragon eggs were simply part of a Targaryen princess package :-)

On a second thought, I wonder: Dany was considered expendable and supposed to die soon. Viserys couldn't have been expected to survive the Dothraki, either (and I do believe that "you shouldn't do XY" - "no-one tells a dragon what to do!" was pretty predictable and that Illyrio's tight-lipped smile suggested that Viserys did exactly as he was meant to). So, to whom would Drogo then fulfill his promise of an army? Aegon, as Dany's relative? Illyrio, as the giver of the eggs (and Dany as well, in a way)?

Isn't that odd? I agree that Viserys was meant to be goaded into going with the Dothraki. But I wonder if Dany was really expendable - it could have been a part of the plan that Illyrio was skeptical about, but went along with it because he either trusted Varys (if he was the one suggesting it) or had no choice for whatever reason.

 

[SFDanny]

More on the evidence whether Dany is really Dany and the essay saying no.

"Being robbed when they got kicked out the house with the Red Door"

@Rhaenys_Targaryen has already pointed out one major mistake in this part of the essay's argument. The servants do not "put them out of the house." The quote says the following:

Quote

After Ser Willem had died, the servants had stolen what little money they had left, and soon after they had been put out of the house. Dany cried when the red door closed behind them forever. (AGoT 25)

There is only a temporal connection made here; not a connection of the servants doing both the stealing of money and the evicting of the Targaryens from the house. But though this seems obvious from the reading, the author states otherwise, "Now Dany just told us that the servants robbed them before they eventually put them out of the house and took 'what little money they had left.'" On what basis servants can evict the Targaryens seems quite a leap from the basic understanding of a servant/employer relationship. Not that servants haven't been known to steal from their employers, but the power to evict them would seem to rest with the owner of the house with the red door, not with servants employed by the Targaryens. Alternatively, the servants could have come with the house and be employed by the owner, but still it isn't the servants who would order them out.

There is then a section on why the servants did not steal more valuable things than mere coin from the Targaryens. Specifically why they did not take Rhaella's crown. The assumption here is that the Targaryens would store an object as valuable as their mother's crown in an unsecured place within the house itself. Why this assumption is made, I cannot tell you, but it is unlikely to be true. It is much more likely the crown is in the Iron Bank, or in the Sealord's care, than in the chest by Viserys's bed.

The next part of this section of the essay starts with an important point, and that is the unlikelihood that Viserys ever lived a simple life and his behavior exhibits a life of entitlement and ease. I agree. However, that does not mean Dany's memories of her "simple life" at the house with the red door is in contradiction to a pampered life for both the Targaryens. What Dany sees as simple joys, like having her own room with a window looking out on a lemon tree in Braavos, and having servants to take care of their needs, isn't a depiction of a life of poverty and wont. It is a simple life in that she did not feel the worries there that she did in their flight from one location to the other after they had to leave the house in Braavos. It is simple because she does not yet understand the wealth and power needed to provide the house with the little red door and the lemon tree outside of her window. 

The last section deals with Viserys not using High Valyrian while we have later examples that show Daenerys knew the language. Unfortunately one of the examples given is not Viserys speaking to Daenerys, but Viserys speaking to Ser Jorah. We have no indication that Ser Jorah understands High Valyrian or that Viserys would have and expectation that he did so. It makes sense he would speak to the knight from Bear Island in the Common Tongue as he does in the quote. As to whether or not the new King of Westeros understands High Valyrian or not we don't know because there isn't an instance in which Dany speaks in the language and expects her brother to understand her. Viserys's use of the Common Tongue seems quite adequate in hiding his communications to either Ser Jorah or Dany. There is no need for him to resort to High Valyrian to accomplish what he wants. Nor is this evidence of a difference in the two Targaryens upbringing.

It is more of the same use of nothing remarkable to try and make a clue out of thin air.

"Illyrio"

This section boils down to another attempt to make something of possible timeline "problems." I'm going to leave out a much too long part about Illyrio's "vigorous fucking" and just point out that the time difference between Daenerys I and Daenerys II is unknown. We don't know how long it is between when Dany meets Khal Drogo and their wedding. So the "nigh on half a year" Daenerys thinks of her time living with Illyrio in the opening of her first chapter could be much longer by the time the actual wedding takes place. We don't know.

I do agree with the author that the Targaryens could have met Illyrio before they move in with him. The "itinerary questions" from early on in the essay don't preclude the possibility the Targaryens go to Pentos earlier, or that they could have met Illyrio someplace outside of Pentos. The man is not incapable of travel, as we find out in his journey with Tyrion, and his journey to meet Varys under the Red Keep in King's Landing.

The rest of the essay is speculation on just who Dany might really be, and I'll get to that in a later post.

More later.

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

@SFDanny

There's an aspect here to be considered though: Does Doran know what Illyrio/Varys intended for Dany? I doubt that he'd be in cahoots with them, considering his overtly cautious and untrusting personality. So we're looking at two seperate Targ-interested factions here, I think, with possibly conflicting motives.

You're right though, that the Archon of Tyrosh is a guy to watch: Doran had wanted to send Arianne there so that she could meet Viserys, and the Archon's daughter spent time in the Water Gardens. Doran has pretty good connections with that guy, for sure.

We can safely say that Doran Martell most definitely would have known about the Dothraki plan. Whether he also approved of the details is another matter entirely. Yet considering that Doran reacted rather quickly when the news about Dany's dragons reached him I don't think it makes sense to assume that he just jumped on this 'dragon chance'. He took a considerable risk by sending Quentyn to Meereen, and it is quite clear that he would have not done such a thing if he had not long ago decided that House Martell would back Viserys III in a Targaryen restoration.

However, it is effectively confirmed that Doran had no clue about the Aegon plan just as Varys/Illyrio had no idea about the Arianne-Viserys marriage contract.

But this doesn't mean both parties weren't involved in (or did not approve of) the Dothraki plan (Varys/Illyrio more than Doran, of course). Doran most certainly must have had information on that one considering his ties to the Archon of Tyrosh (whose brother was there when Dany was introduced to Drogo) as well as his general information. Daenerys Targaryen's wedding was a rather public event, after all.

If Doran did not approve of the Dothraki plan one should expect he would have intervened with Viserys III using his own agents and contacts in Essos to dissuade him. The fact that this did not happen strongly suggests that Doran had no problem with the Dothraki plan (unless we assume Doran had cut his ties with the Targaryens in the meantime only to return into the fold after the dragons hatched - but I don't think we can infer anything like that on the basis of AFfC/ADwD)

5 hours ago, SFDanny said:

What is likely is that at some point, based on who knows what, Prince Doran views Illyrio as an ally enough that he seemingly does nothing to stop the Targaryens from living with him. The degree of Doran's knowledge of Varys's involvement is key. Is Varys's one of those people Doran believes is a secret friend? I'm not yet convinced of that, although @Lord Varys and other posters I respect seem to think this is so.

I'd not go as far as assume that Doran is aware of the Varys-Illyrio connection. He might not be. But he might think Illyrio is as much on board with his, Doran Martell's, Targaryen restoration plans as the Archon of Tyrosh. If Doran has no clue about Illyrio's own Westerosi connections (assuming he has any) he has no reason to suspect or assume Illyrio is not just a guy who has jumped the Targaryen band wagon to make some profits.

Varys is another matter and I'd in principle agree that there is little reason to assume that he and Doran are close or have some sort of working relationship yet somebody must be Doran's secret friend in KL. And I really don't think it can be some new player at court (Taena Merryweather) because Doran wouldn't trust such a person nor do I think any of the remaining old timers at court are likely to be loyal or friendly to Doran Martell of all people. The Baratheon court was full of Baratheon and Lannister men neither of which would profit much from selling information to the Martells. They weren't popular with either Robert, his brothers, or the following Lannister-dominated regime.

And we have to keep in mind that the secret about the planned murder of Trystane Martell is apparently not something Cersei Lannister ever openly talked about. She knew that this had to be kept a secret and probably only involved Balon Swann as well as the men who were supposed to murder Trystane. There is no hint in AFfC that she ever talked about this with Taena or any of her other cronies. Cersei might be stupid but she is not as stupid to talk about everything with anybody. She thought of her people as servants who would enact her will. But servants only need to know enough to carry out their tasks.

Just take the Margaery plan. That comes very suddenly (due to Cersei reassessment of Maggy's prophecy) and at a time when especially Orton Merryweather is very anxious to get caught up in the whole thing. It is one thing to sow mistrust between the Rose and the Lion behind the scenes and quite another to play an integral part in the downfall and execution of Mace Tyrell's only daughter.

All that makes it very likely that Varys must have been the person who found out about the details of the entire Trystane plan (Swann's role and knowledge about it, the place where the attack is going to take place). That could have worked only with the little bird network in place. Any other source might caught some hint Cersei let slip when she was drunk and/or careless. But even then she wouldn't have given away any details like that Balon Swann was involved or that it would happen in the Kingswood or that Tyrion would take the blame.

Unless we assume Doran's source or Doran himself is making up the entire Trystane assassination plan (and there is no reason to believe that considering the subtle hints we, the readers, get from Cersei's POV about Swann's other mission in Dorne) the best guess for Doran's source in that whole thing is Varys, or a person working for Varys (which would be essentially the same thing).

From Varys' POV it also makes sense to try to win Doran's trust to ensure that the Aegon plan is going to work. Varys/Illyrio know that at one point their own involvement in the Aegon plan will become public knowledge. If Doran/the Martells did then mistrust/loath Varys (or Illyrio) then the chances are pretty good that Dorne would either not declare for Aegon or abandon the boy before his throne is secure. That could ruin everything.

I'm not sure how Varys would have won Doran's trust but I guess a pretty good starting point would be that he actually passed on exclusive and verifiable true information from court and elsewhere to Doran. Valuable information that concerned Doran Martell and his plans. This doesn't mean that Doran suddenly trusts Varys completely or anything of that sort. But it might very well mean that he has begun to see him as a reliable source and that they may have the same goals. This is Varys usually modus operandi anyway, and if Varys out of the blue goes to great lengths (and takes a pretty big personal risk) to give you important information then you have a pretty good reason to believe that you may be on the same side or have the same goals (at least to a point).

The idea that Varys would not try to change whatever picture Doran had of him during the last years of the reign of Aerys II makes little sense to me - assuming Doran had a bad picture of Varys at this point.

[SFDanny]

@Lord Varys I don't disagree with any of this, but may I suggest a alternative way in which Varys feeds information to Prince Doran for his own purposes. If he uses a front, someone in King's Landing who Doran trusts, and gets information to the Prince when he wants without having to overcome the barrier of getting the Prince of Dorne to trust the man who advised Aerys in ways that were against Dornish interests and put Elia and her children in harm's way. We don't know exactly what Varys told Aerys in those last days, but for Doran to trust the man who had Aerys ear when Aerys was holding Elia hostage, and passing over Aegon to make Viserys heir seems like a very high hurdle. A front, who either knowingly keeps the knowledge of where the information comes from away from Doran, or doesn't know Varys is the source himself, would do away with the problem of Varys history. I guess the question then becomes who might fit the bill for such a front man/woman. I will have to think on that for a while.

I do think you are right that it seems very unlikely that Doran is aware of the Illyrio/Varys connection. It maybe Doran's influence in Essos cannot control where the Targaryens go, but if he has any influence it would be unlikely he would accept a close friend of Varys as the safe house for his future son-in-law and his sister.

[Little Scribe of Naath]

Great breakdown, @Lord Varys. It does make sense to me now why Varys/Illyrio would be interested in getting Doran's backing - for their fAegon plan - another added level of legitimacy for him if he is accepted by his mother's family. I agree with @SFDanny that it's more likely Varys would be using a front to deliver information to Doran - the man is way too cautious to trust the Spider of KL.

I could see a scenario where Doran knows, through the Archon of Tyrosh, that Illyrio Mopatis, a wealthy man from Pentos was kind enough to host the Targ children -  but he may not be aware of the Varys connection to Illyrio. Thus, he is unaware of the fAegon plan.

It is interesting to wonder, though, if he had information on the mental state of Viserys. Vis/Dany stayed at the Archon's place for a time, so it's possible. It's also intriguing as to why Doran didn't intervene on the Dothraki issue. The Dothraki are a very poor military force when compared to Westerosi armies (and remember, from Doran's POV, he knows Robert has the support of the whole realm except Dorne.) 

With all the Tyrosh connections, I wonder if Doran knew about the existence of any Blackfyre offshoots in Tyrosh? We have no idea what happened to Bittersteel's family, Daemon's daughters...their descendants could all be there, and the Archon might know. There's a possibility Doran could realise YG with his Tyroshi style blue hair, backed by the GC, could be of the BF line.

[Lord Varys]

16 hours ago, SFDanny said:

@Lord Varys I don't disagree with any of this, but may I suggest a alternative way in which Varys feeds information to Prince Doran for his own purposes. If he uses a front, someone in King's Landing who Doran trusts, and gets information to the Prince when he wants without having to overcome the barrier of getting the Prince of Dorne to trust the man who advised Aerys in ways that were against Dornish interests and put Elia and her children in harm's way. We don't know exactly what Varys told Aerys in those last days, but for Doran to trust the man who had Aerys ear when Aerys was holding Elia hostage, and passing over Aegon to make Viserys heir seems like a very high hurdle. A front, who either knowingly keeps the knowledge of where the information comes from away from Doran, or doesn't know Varys is the source himself, would do away with the problem of Varys history. I guess the question then becomes who might fit the bill for such a front man/woman. I will have to think on that for a while.

I have no idea who could serve as such a front. One could imagine Ser Aron Santagar working in such a capacity until his untimely death but considering that Doran still gets information from KL this doesn't make much sense. More importantly, there are hints that Varys is actually managing/directing the Targaryen loyalists in the city (and elsewhere) and there is no reason to believe that the Martells have their own men in the capital they can work with. At least not during the days of the Baratheons and Lannisters.

The other problem is that you for some reason take it as a given that Doran blames Varys for the Elia situation. Aerys was a known madman. There is nothing wrong with the assumption that Aerys decided on his own that the Dornishmen were evil traitors without Varys pushing him into that direction - and even if he did, it should be quite difficult for Doran to actually learn things like that firsthand. Lewyn and Arthur are theoretically in the position to know intimate stuff from court but not in the time we are talking about. Arthur was with Rhaegar and Lewyn was apparently only receiving Aerys' threat after the man made his decision. He was apparently not serving Aerys as a Kingsguard when he decided that the Dornishmen were traitors and had to be blackmailed into staying loyal.

Even so, we don't actually know whether Doran intended to stay true to Rhaegar/Aerys. Perhaps he played with the possibility to come too late (like Walder did on the Trident)? If Doran was contemplating treason (or inaction) then Varys wouldn't have done anything wrong when he told Aerys about that - Aerys then deciding to threaten the lives of Elia and the children was the king's call in any case.

Doran has no right to hold Varys' loyalty to Aerys against him. He may have been pissed that a series of events was started that ended with the deaths of his sister and her children but this was not Varys' doing. And thus Doran has no good reason to consider the man an enemy.

16 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I do think you are right that it seems very unlikely that Doran is aware of the Illyrio/Varys connection. It maybe Doran's influence in Essos cannot control where the Targaryens go, but if he has any influence it would be unlikely he would accept a close friend of Varys as the safe house for his future son-in-law and his sister.

Well, Doran definitely didn't made the decision for Pentos and Illyrio. But then, we have yet literally no idea how it came to be that Viserys III ended up trusting Illyrio Mopatis.

15 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

Great breakdown, @Lord Varys. It does make sense to me now why Varys/Illyrio would be interested in getting Doran's backing - for their fAegon plan - another added level of legitimacy for him if he is accepted by his mother's family. I agree with @SFDanny that it's more likely Varys would be using a front to deliver information to Doran - the man is way too cautious to trust the Spider of KL.

As I've said above I see no candidate for such a front. And it wouldn't help Varys, personally, in the end to go through a middleman. If his connection with Aegon is discovered Doran not trusting him, Varys, could potentially become a big problem and there is every reason to believe that Varys plans to become a huge part of Aegon's future administration and court.

15 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

I could see a scenario where Doran knows, through the Archon of Tyrosh, that Illyrio Mopatis, a wealthy man from Pentos was kind enough to host the Targ children -  but he may not be aware of the Varys connection to Illyrio. Thus, he is unaware of the fAegon plan.

He definitely has no idea of the Aegon plan. And as of yet no one outside of Aegon's inner circle know about the fact that Illyrio and Varys are behind the Aegon plan. People think this is a brainchild of Jon Connington.

15 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

It is interesting to wonder, though, if he had information on the mental state of Viserys. Vis/Dany stayed at the Archon's place for a time, so it's possible. 

We have no clue about Viserys' mental state back when the marriage pact was made or Doran considered sending Arianne to Tyrosh. There is no reason to believe he was much of a nut case back then. But this didn't really matter. Viserys III was no great man but he wasn't mad (yet?). Keep in mind that kings are often figureheads, especially those weaker Targaryen kings. And even Blackfyre pretenders are not necessarily great or inspiring people - just look at Daemon II.

In the Targaryen case the name is everything, really. Viserys III doesn't have to make any decisions or show great feats at arms. It should be enough if he looks the part and is capable of giving some speeches. There are a lot of Targaryen loyalists back in Westeros, after all. And a weak Viserys would actually make things easier for Arianne - she could easily enough become the woman behind the throne pulling the strings.

15 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

It's also intriguing as to why Doran didn't intervene on the Dothraki issue. The Dothraki are a very poor military force when compared to Westerosi armies (and remember, from Doran's POV, he knows Robert has the support of the whole realm except Dorne.)

Well, I'd say because Doran knew that Dorne and the Targaryen loyalists in Westeros would be not enough while the rebels were still strong he would approve of the Dothraki plan. He obviously didn't prevent it.

15 hours ago, Little Scribe of Naath said:

With all the Tyrosh connections, I wonder if Doran knew about the existence of any Blackfyre offshoots in Tyrosh? We have no idea what happened to Bittersteel's family, Daemon's daughters...their descendants could all be there, and the Archon might know. There's a possibility Doran could realise YG with his Tyroshi style blue hair, backed by the GC, could be of the BF line.

The idea that there are still Blackfyre descendants in Tyrosh is a huge stretch. They were there for some time - at least until the death of Aenys Blackfyre - but the Band of Nine actually toppled the Archon of Tyrosh (who was later reinstated) when they conquered Tyrosh on behalf of Alequo Adarys. I very doubt that this caused the Tyroshi to look favorably among any Blackfyres amongst their midst after the Silvertongue had been dealt with.

Thinking about that - Alequo Adarys himself might have been a Blackfyre descendant through the female line (perhaps a descendant of a male or female Blackfyre who happened to marry into one of the noble families of Tyrosh) and cousin of Maelys Blackfyre. If so, then his eventual downfall would also have put an end to any Blackfyres remaining in Tyrosh up to this point.

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

I have no idea who could serve as such a front. One could imagine Ser Aron Santagar working in such a capacity until his untimely death but considering that Doran still gets information from KL this doesn't make much sense. More importantly, there are hints that Varys is actually managing/directing the Targaryen loyalists in the city (and elsewhere) and there is no reason to believe that the Martells have their own men in the capital they can work with. At least not during the days of the Baratheons and Lannisters.

Santagar is a likely candidate while he lived, but I need to look over our list of known characters in King's Landing to see if any other stands out. It doesn't have to be anyone we have heard of, but that would be nice.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The other problem is that you for some reason take it as a given that Doran blames Varys for the Elia situation. 

No, not blame as in Doran has to think he is responsible. The question is why would Doran trust Varys or his information given the long history of Varys standing beside Aerys and feeding him information that stokes his paranoia. I don't expect the Princes Martell to forget the role Varys played during a period of conflict and tensions between Dorne and the Iron Throne. Nor to forget that he is an advisor to the Baratheon/Lannister usurpers.That's all.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

We have no clue about Viserys' mental state back when the marriage pact was made or Doran considered sending Arianne to Tyrosh. There is no reason to believe he was much of a nut case back then. But this didn't really matter. Viserys III was no great man but he wasn't mad (yet?). Keep in mind that kings are often figureheads, especially those weaker Targaryen kings. And even Blackfyre pretenders are not necessarily great or inspiring people - just look at Daemon II.

We do have a clue about Viserys's mental state early on.

Quote

"Some truths are hard to hear. Robert was a ... a good knight ... chivalrous, brave ... he spared my life and the lives of many others ... Prince Viserys was only a boy, it would have been years before he was fit to rule, and ... forgive me, my queen, but you asked for truth ... even as a child, your brother Viserys oft seemed to be his father's son, in ways that Rhaegar never did." (ASoS 811) bold emphasis added.

Ser Barristan goes on to say he watched Daenerys for a time to make sure she was not like Aerys or Viserys. So, given that all of Ser Barristan's personal information about Viserys's mental state dates from before he leaves to go to the Trident, I think we can state unequivocally that we have a clue, and a strong one, of Viserys's mental state prior to the pact. The question is why would you think he got better in exile?

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

In the Targaryen case the name is everything, really. Viserys III doesn't have to make any decisions or show great feats at arms. It should be enough if he looks the part and is capable of giving some speeches. There are a lot of Targaryen loyalists back in Westeros, after all. And a weak Viserys would actually make things easier for Arianne - she could easily enough become the woman behind the throne pulling the strings.

It starts that way, but after the new King Viserys stays with people for extended period of time it may not be enough to counter his erratic behavior we see even while staying with Illyrio. There maybe other reasons for the Targaryens to be forced to shuttle to others for safe haven, but it doesn't make sense to rule out Viserys's mental condition as a factor.

[Lord Varys]

27 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Santagar is a likely candidate while he lived, but I need to look over our list of known characters in King's Landing to see if any other stands out. It doesn't have to be anyone we have heard of, but that would be nice.

Well, assuming something is there without any good reason adds another complication. And even Santagar just sounds like a possible candidate because he is Dornish. But not all Dornishmen might like or honor timid Doran Martell. The man is still in charge or Dorne but he was never popular. And you have to keep in mind that Santagar was a martial man as master-of-arms. He might be as fond of gouty indecisive Doran as Fireball was of Daeron II.

27 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

No, not blame as in Doran has to think he is responsible. The question is why would Doran trust Varys or his information given the long history of Varys standing beside Aerys and feeding him information that stokes his paranoia. I don't expect the Princes Martell to forget the role Varys played during a period of conflict and tensions between Dorne and the Iron Throne. Nor to forget that he is an advisor to the Baratheon/Lannister usurpers.That's all.

I hear you, but that is not a good argument. Varys has had fifteen years to win Doran's trust by feeding him good information while he was only whispering things into Aerys' ears for about four years.

He should be able to overcome even Doran Martell's mistrust. Just look how easily he won Cersei's or Tyrion's trust.

27 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

We do have a clue about Viserys's mental state early on.

That is not a very precise quote. You make it appear as Barristan is clearly talking about Aerys' madness but Viserys III does not show any of the true mad qualities of his father in AGoT. He is neither as cruel as Aerys nor as deranged, filthy, or perverse.

The common denominator between father and son is the paranoia (which certainly was based on real things in both cases, at least up to a point) and their lack of judgment.

27 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Ser Barristan goes on to say he watched Daenerys for a time to make sure she was not like Aerys or Viserys. So, given that all of Ser Barristan's personal information about Viserys's mental state dates from before he leaves to go to the Trident, I think we can state unequivocally that we have a clue, and a strong one, of Viserys's mental state prior to the pact. The question is why would you think he got better in exile?

I don't think he got better. But I'm pretty sure young Viserys III never showed madness of the same quality as Aerys II showed after Duskendale. That was what earned him the moniker of the Mad King. Viserys was never mad in that sense. Thus I'd read Selmy's assessment of Viserys (and his watching of Dany) as him not talking about madness and cruelty but rather the qualities of a good ruler. Barristan wants to make sure that Dany is not going to go down the Aerys road, sure, but he also does not want to follow a pretender with as much chances of success as the younger Daemon Blackfyre.

He wants to follow the true steel, so to speak. A real Targaryen monarch and champion. Targaryens like the Conqueror, Visenya, Jaehaerys I and Alysanne, Daeron I, the Dragonknight, Baelor Breakspear, and perhaps even Maekar and Aegon V. Not freaks and failures (in the martial sphere) as Aenys I, Maegor the Cruel, Aegon II, Aegon III, Baelor the Blessed, Daeron II, Aerys I, or Jaehaerys II.

Aerys II (and Viserys III) would have never met any of those standards even if there had been no Duskendale.

27 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

It starts that way, but after the new King Viserys stays with people for extended period of time it may not be enough to counter his erratic behavior we see even while staying with Illyrio. There maybe other reasons for the Targaryens to be forced to shuttle to others for safe haven, but it doesn't make sense to rule out Viserys's mental condition as a factor.

We don't see any erratic behavior in Viserys III at all. The man is anxious and somewhat paranoid, possessive, and somewhat cruel towards his younger sister. In the end he is just pitifully naive and stupid. But he is never mad.

We'll have to wait and see how great or sane the unknown Targaryen and Blackfyres are. I'd not be surprised one bit if either Prince Aegon, the son and heir of Aenys I, or his younger brother Viserys could be qualified as mad, nor do I expect much prowess on the battlefield from the yet to be flashed out Blackfyre pretenders. Either Haegon or Daemon III or both could turn out to be pitiful creatures who were just propped up on their horses to serve as figureheads for their ambitious uncle.

If the Blackfyre loyalists thought they could win wars with people like that - and that might be the case, even Maelys was a freak of sorts - then there is no reason not to assume that the Targaryen loyalists in Westeros would be happy enough serving a king who came somewhat after his father. After all, Aerys II could be very generous. And it is very obvious that Viserys III would have rewarded everybody greatly who actually helped him win his throne. Hell, there isn't even a hint the man wanted to rule. He just wanted his crown and be king. It is pretty obvious that whoever helped him accomplish that could dominate his council and government at least as much as Bloodraven clearly dominated the reigns of Aerys I and Maekar I.

[Samson]

Didn't you get the memo, from, the raven that arrived?

 

She's actually Benjen Nahaaris.

 

[LiveFirstDieLater]

If Viserys was raised by Willem Darry, even for a few years and presumably Darry wasn't sick the whole time, why does he so conspicuously not know how to use a sword... This is the same master at arms who taught Rhaegar to use a sword, and seems to have done a pretty good job there. 

Dany's first chapters are full of Viserys playing with the borrowed sword he doesn't know how to use... Just another oddity

[nanother]

16 minutes ago, LiveFirstDieLater said:

If Viserys was raised by Willem Darry, even for a few years and presumably Darry wasn't sick the whole time, why does he so conspicuously not know how to use a sword... This is the same master at arms who taught Rhaegar to use a sword, and seems to have done a pretty good job there. 

Dany's first chapters are full of Viserys playing with the borrowed sword he doesn't know how to use... Just another oddity

Where does Dany say he doesn't know how to use a sword? All I can find her saying is Viserys 'never used a sword in earnest' - which is quite different - I take it to mean that he never had been in an actual fight, not that he never received any training at all. Mind you, I wouldn't expect Viserys to be a good swordsman in any case. Rhaegar sought Darry out and was a motivated, or at least dutiful pupil, who then kept on practising and training. Viserys seems to prefer his own fantasies to the real world, so even if Darry tried to train him, he might not have been overly interested. And that would have been, what, eight years prior to the books? That's plenty of time to forget even what little he might have learnt, if he didn't have the motivation/opportunity/pressure to practise regularly. So it wouldn't be too surprising if he really didn't know what to do with a sword, after all.

[Megaera]

If Dany isnt Dany, then it makes more sense to me for her to be Rhaenys.

If someone had the foresight to (supposedly) swap Aegon for the Pisswater Prince, then why not Rhaenys for a Pisswater Princess? 

So, Rhaenys is hidden away in Dorne (lemontrees!) for a while at the age of 2/3 and then goes to join her grandmother and uncle on dragonstone so they can escape into exile. She was kept separate from Aegon to lessen the chance of both of them being found and killed (just like luke and leia!) and to provide Viserys with a targ bride to keep the dynasty going.

[LiveFirstDieLater]

21 minutes ago, Megaera said:

If Dany isnt Dany, then it makes more sense to me for her to be Rhaenys.

If someone had the foresight to (supposedly) swap Aegon for the Pisswater Prince, then why not Rhaenys for a Pisswater Princess? 

So, Rhaenys is hidden away in Dorne (lemontrees!) for a while at the age of 2/3 and then goes to join her grandmother and uncle on dragonstone so they can escape into exile. She was kept separate from Aegon to lessen the chance of both of them being found and killed (just like luke and leia!) and to provide Viserys with a targ bride to keep the dynasty going.

The problem with this and the reason for Varys not switching out Rhaenys is that people recognized the little girls body, the smashed in baby head they just kinda glanced at... Plus it would make Dany much older than she appears to be

[Nevets]

I am at a loss as to why anyone would go to the trouble to create a false Daenerys in the first place.  She is female and the second child so she is in as position to inherit ... nothing.  If the original Daenerys died or was born stillborn, why not simply hold a funeral and move on.  She is not actually essential for anything  In most plots of this sort, you have an only child or someone getting displaced in an inheritance.  A real life example would be the allegations that James Stuart, son of King James II of England was a changeling designed to displace Mary and Anne from inheriting the throne.  Both girls were Protestant, while James's mother was Catholic, as was James II.  It became more or less moot when James II was overthrown.  

The only explanation I have seen is that Viserys needed a sister to marry.  This is belied by two facts.  One is the marriage pact involving him and Arianne.  The other is that it is hard to imagine Viserys actually thinking that a child he has never seen before, or who looks different than his actual sister, is actually his sister.  He is brutal and mentally unstable, not an idiot, and has no incentive to accept a girl who isn't his sister.  And I am at a loss why anyone would go the considerable trouble to provide him with one.  

I am somewhat troubled by all the references to lemons being from Dorne, even as recently as preview chapters, but I have a hard time believing that they indicate that Daenerys is someone other than who she appears to be.  I think it may simply be that the Martells were more involved with them, and for a longer time, than has been previously disclosed.  

[The Ice Wolf of Loki]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

The only explanation I have seen is that Viserys needed a sister to marry.  This is belied by two facts.  One is the marriage pact involving him and Arianne.  The other is that it is hard to imagine Viserys actually thinking that a child he has never seen before, or who looks different than his actual sister, is actually his sister.  He is brutal and mentally unstable, not an idiot, and has no incentive to accept a girl who isn't his sister.  And I am at a loss why anyone would go the considerable trouble to provide him with one.  

 

Another explanation is that Viserys could need a bargaining chip someone he can offer in marriage to gain alliances. Note that at the start of the books the heir to House Tyrell (who also happens to be friends with the Viper) isn't married what better match than a Targaryen princess?

Now if Viserys was to marry Arriane and Willas marry Dany the Targaryens would have the armies of the Reach and Dorne. It's only after Dany marries Drogo that the Tyrells go all in with first Renly and then the Lannisters and try to orchestrate marrying Willas to Sansa.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 9/19/2016 at 2:33 PM, Megaera said:

If Dany isnt Dany, then it makes more sense to me for her to be Rhaenys.

If someone had the foresight to (supposedly) swap Aegon for the Pisswater Prince, then why not Rhaenys for a Pisswater Princess? 

So, Rhaenys is hidden away in Dorne (lemontrees!) for a while at the age of 2/3 and then goes to join her grandmother and uncle on dragonstone so they can escape into exile. She was kept separate from Aegon to lessen the chance of both of them being found and killed (just like luke and leia!) and to provide Viserys with a targ bride to keep the dynasty going.

1. Dany is not old enough to be Rhaenys. Rhaenys was about three years old when she was killed. Dany wasn't born until after the war. 

2. Rhaenys had Dornish looks. Dany has typical Valyrian looks.

3. The author has said there is no question that Rhaenys was indeed killed.

[Amris]

8 hours ago, Nevets said:

I am at a loss as to why anyone would go to the trouble to create a false Daenerys in the first place.  She is female and the second child so she is in as position to inherit ... nothing.

snip

 

I don't know whether Dany is who she thinks she is or not. But I think I can answer your question:

IF Dany where a legitimate child of Rhaegar's - not the youngest child of Aerys - she would stand before Viserys in the order of succession. Because Rhaegar, not Viserys was the crown prince.

If Viserys knew that he would have had every incentive to make up a background which made her his little sister instead of his queen. And all Dany knows about who she is she knows from Viserys really. All other witnesses are conveniently dead.

Whether that's how it went down I have no idea. But it explains your question.

 

[Ygrain]

The Targaryen succession puts females at the very end of the line, so she would be behind Viserys either way.

[Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Amris said:

IF Dany where a legitimate child of Rhaegar's - not the youngest child of Aerys - she would stand before Viserys in the order of succession. Because Rhaegar, not Viserys was the crown prince.

Actually, according to TWoIaF, it would seem that Viserys became Aerys' heir (crown prince) after the Trident. So it would appear that Aerys passed over Aegon in the succession in favour of Viserys which is not surprising considering his distrust of the Dornish.

"Birds flew and couriers raced to bear word of the victory at the Ruby Ford. When the news reached the Red Keep, it was said that Aerys cursed the Dornish, certain that Lewyn had betrayed Rhaegar. He sent his pregnant queen, Rhaella, and his younger son and new heir, Viserys, away to Dragonstone, but Princess Elia was forced to remain in King's Landing with Rhaegar's children as a hostage against Dorne."

[LiveFirstDieLater]

6 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

The Targaryen succession puts females at the very end of the line, so she would be behind Viserys either way.

It's never that simple, I think that's the point...

Also, let's say that Doran and/or Oberyn knew about a girl child of Rhaegar and Lyanna... Elia and her children had just been brutally killed, it's not unreasonable that Ned might not be the only one who doesn't like killing children. At the same time she would be an embarrassment, since Rhaegar was married to Elia and all... So lie about who she is, give her to Viserys as a bargening chip, and sign a marriage pact with him. She could then be traded off for an army to so Dorne wouldn't have to stand alone, but wouldn't be a living reminder of the insult to Elia.