Heresy Project X+Y=J: Wrap up thread 3

[Sly Wren]

1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

Sure it's a place with a lot of traffic, but it's also a BIG place. You wouldn't be able to move an army through there without someone spotting you. A few people hanging out in an old abandoned building, though? There could be a hundred such scattered around the Prince's Pass at any time. Old buildings would get temporarily occupied on a regular basis by passing locals.

Agreed. But given what we've been told about the Fowlers et. al, really sounds like they would look at the old buildings. Look at how the North manages to keep on the lookout for deserters from the Watch. And finds them. Even single ones. 

Plus, given all the activity and antipathy between parties, that Pass is not "neutral" territory. Especially during a war--it's the main route for invasion. 

I could see Rhaegar and co. pulling off a short stay. But at some point riders/patrollers would come through.

Plus, the World Book takes the time to compare the Fowlers et. a;. to the Vale Clans. The Vale is Huge, too. But the clans have a pretty good (if short) record in the novels of finding the people who don't belong there. Even small groups. 

1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

The sheer scale of the region makes it impractical to check them all out -- and there's no reason why anyone would care about a small group anyway. 

Why not care about a small group? Small groups of raiders or spies can cause trouble. And Rhaegar the Missing Crown Prince ain't just any "small group." And given the history of antipathy towards all things Targaryen, seems like the Stony Dornish would care a lot about all that. 

And that Arthur Dayne would be well versed enough to warn Rhaegar of that history.

1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

In case you missed it a couple of threads back, on the official Westeros map, it's possible to fit the entirety of the Iron Islands into the Prince's Pass. Even assuming a pretty major scaling issue, we're dealing with an area the size of a small country. Much larger armies than the Dornish, equipped with night vision goggles and drones, have a lot of trouble finding people hiding in mountainous regions smaller than this. 

HA! Am now thinking of the Vale clans fighting over who gets the night vision googles. Shagga would definitely get some.

And I agree that lots can get hidden.

But first up--it's a watchtower, far as we know. Noticeable and something one would check--shelter, vantage points, etc. Not just a hiding place. It's a place you'd check if looking for invaders, raiders, or spies. Or if you are just territorial.

Second up: in Game alone, we have evidence the Northerners can track and find even single deserters in the entirety of the North--which is also huge. And that the Vale Clans look for and find even small groups of "invaders" in the Vale--which is both huge and mountainous.

So far in Martinlandia, even huge places get patrolled by determined, territorial people (like the Stony Dornish). And small groups/single people get found--and dealt with.

1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

A Japanese WW2 hold-out was able to stay hidden on tiny Guam, close to a major American military base, for 17 years, but the 3KG couldn't stay hidden for a few months in a region at least 10 and possibly 50 times as large?

Does not make sense.

"Couldn't?" Of course not. And I apologize if I got too absolutist in my response to you.

But "very unlikely given what we've been told of the people, the region, and precedents in this fictional world?" Yes. 

And, again, really seems like Arthur would be sure to know all of this history and tension that happened in that pass. If they got found, who knows what would happen? 

Going to more loyal ground--like Starfall--a lot less risky.

47 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

We do have the tower's location depicted on one of the maps from the main novels: A Dance with Dragons-Map of the South. 

Yes--my apologies if I sounded like I don't think it's in the pass. I do. My point was that even if tithe tower is just in the region, that's not a happy, stable, everyone-trusts-each-other sort of place. And would be patrolled--like the Vale Clans and the Northerners patrol their regions.

[Sly Wren]

39 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Sorry to have been out of touch for so long, but I've been otherwise occupied for a few weeks. I think I owe you a response, Sly Wren, and would like to get to it if you are still interested.

Good to see you back! And no worries--I'm so far behind, I've lost track of where I'm supposed to be in a number of convos.

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Instead of that, for right now, just let me add this to your and Kingmonkey's conversation. Kingmonkey makes a very good point about the size of the Prince's Pass. Martin has constructed the continent of Westeros to be the size of South America, and the pass itself is a large formation that would allow a small party to hide out - if they are aware of their surroundings, can blend in with locals, and have some way of supporting themselves for months. This however is not the only scenario to be considered.

This is possible--but Rhaegar ain't all that blend-y with that hair of his. Let alone if he whips out his harp. And really seems like the Stony Dornish would recognize the Sword of the Morning, let alone Dawn. Plus, when Ned finds them, they are all in their white KG armor (at least in the dream). Not exactly incognito.

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Rhaegar has supporters in his fight for the crown. How many and who they are are unknown. If one asks about who controls the area around the Tower of Joy and whether or not they are supporters of Rhaegar, then the answer to that question would seem to be rather important in figuring just how hidden the party at the tower has to be. If the local lord is sending troops around his territory looking for spies, and would consider the Prince's party as intruders it would be one thing. If the local lord tells his troops to stay away from the old tower and to do other things, then we have something altogether different. The truth is we don't even know for sure who this local lord would be, much less who his or her political sympathies are with.

Agreed--and the local lord in such a scenario would most likely be the Fowlers, Manwoodys, or Carons. The Carons were pro-Targ (according to the World Book) while the Stony Dornish were most definitely anti-targ. So, if Rhaegar got the right support, he might be safe for a bit. Especially for something like @Kingmonkey's or @PrettyPig's sacrifice scenario.

But the Fowlers and the Carons do not cooperate with or like each other--the Fowlers once burned Nightsong because the Carons supported the Targs. So, the idea that the Fowlers or Manwoodys or other Stony Dornish might find out and let the cat out of the bag to the Martells, or just take matters into their own hands--that would definitely still be on the table.

One other thing: if Rhaegar has support from a house, why on earth stay in the Pass where unfriendlies might find him? Why not just stay with the friendly house (IE: Starfall)? Safer, easier, better supplies and bedding, laundry services, etc.

39 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

There has been a very long history of discussion on these boards of just how the people at the tower would be supplied if they were there for any length of time. The support of Starfall is often invoked as the leading candidate for this role, but the Daynes are far removed for the northern end of the Prince's Pass. It may be more simple than that. This could just be another of the Prince's supporters who knows how to keep a secret hidden in his or her territory.

Agreed--if the World Book hadn't told us about how the Stony Dornish feel about the Targs. Or about how the Marchers on one end don't get along with the Stony Dornish on the other end and in the middle.

And again--if Rhaegar has supporters with that much clout, why not just stay with the supporters?

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Or at least I think so. If we have a local authority's support for the party hiding in the tower, then what we are talking about is hiding from searchers from far away with no particular reason to be looking here. A far simpler task.

And an even simpler task would be just to give the prince and his party houseroom in your own castle. Much easier to keep him hidden from curious or suspicious or even enemy eyes. 

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

Good to see you back! And no worries--I'm so far behind, I've lost track of where I'm supposed to be in a number of convos.

The same to you, and, as always, it is good to read your take on things, even when we disagree.

 

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

This is possible--but Rhaegar ain't all that blend-y with that hair of his. Let alone if he whips out his harp. And really seems like the Stony Dornish would recognize the Sword of the Morning, let alone Dawn. Plus, when Ned finds them, they are all in their white KG armor 9at least in the dream). Not exactly incognito.

If Rhaegar went around proclaiming his identity with his hair blowing in the wind, he would be very hard to hide. Yet we know his own father could not find him when he settled for Lord Connington to be his Hand. So, somehow the Crown Prince and his famous companions were able to hide. That much, at least, we know. Nor is this so shocking. We also know Ser Barristan, a very famous and recognizable figure in his own right, is able to disguise himself and walk in and out of King's Landing with all the City Watch searching for him. Hair color can be changed. Suits of armor can be hidden, banners can be furled, and effective disguises employed.

 

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed--and the local lord in such a scenario would most likely be the Fowlers, Manwoodys, or Carons. The Carons were pro-Targ (according to the World Book) while the Stony Dornish were most definitely anti-targ. So, if Rhaegar got the right support, he might be safe for a bit. Especially for something like @Kingmonkey's or @PrettyPig's sacrifice scenario.

But the Fowlers and the Carons do not cooperate with or like each other--the Fowlers once burned Nightsong because the Carons supported the Targs. So, the idea that the Fowlers or Manwoodys or other Stony Dornish might find out and let the cat out of the bag to the Martells, or just take matters into their own hands--that would definitely still be on the table.

One other thing: if Rhaegar has support from a house, why on earth stay in the Pass where unfriendlies might find him? Why not just stay with the friendly house (IE: Starfall)? Safer, easier, better supplies and bedding, laundry services, etc.

Whether or not the Carons of Nightsong are friendly to Rhaegar's cause is an interesting question, but the map on page 234 of The World of Ice & Fire clearly puts the Tower of Joy in Dornish territory, not in the Stormlands. The Manwoodys seat at Kingsgrave is much closer than the Fowlers seat of Skyreach to the Tower of Joy and that would make them likely candidates for being the lords in control of the Tower of Joy, but aside from all the lame phallic jokes that connect the two locales we cannot be sure if this is the case. I would caution this may well be a case similar to The Sworn Sword. The local lord in which the Tower of Joy is located may have loyalties other than to the lord he to which he swears fealty. And like Ser Eustace, his seat need be no more than a old tower of his own. At this point we just don't know enough of the politics in the territory to tell.

To your "one other thing," let me say your point would make sense if convenience was the guiding principle of Rhaegar's choice in hiding places, but not so much if remaining hidden from prying eyes from many different factions is the goal. A place like Starfall would be comfortable, but many outsiders call on the castle. Many locals whose tongues cannot be adequately controlled travel from the castle as part of their duties. The likelihood of someone saying something that provokes interest for unwanted parties if much greater in a place as large as Starfall as opposed to a hidden and remote tower.

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed--if the World Book hadn't told us about how the Stony Dornish feel about the Targs. Or about how the Marchers on one end don't get along with the Stony Dornish on the other end and in the middle.

And again--if Rhaegar has supporters with that much clout, why not just stay with the supporters?

How the Dornish feel about the Targaryens changes throughout this history. Once the Martells marry into the royal family and bring their kingdom under the rule of the Iron Throne is only the most important of these. Rheagar's marriage to Elia and the bringing of more Dornish influence at court is another. None of this need be the defining reason for Rhaegar choosing the Tower of Joy as his hideout. If my speculation is right that the local lord is a supporter of Rhaegar's faction, that would be one important factor in why they travel there.

Staying hidden at a remote tower that is no one's seat and is often unoccupied, as opposed to staying with the local supportive lord can be because of the need to protect the Lord from his own High Lords as well as the aforementioned need to limit the number of eyes who can spy out the party. The Martell brothers have their own quarrels with Rhaegar at this point. There is likely as much a need to hide from them as from Aerys or the Starks and the Baratheons.

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

And an even simpler task would be just to give the prince and his party houseroom in your own castle. Much easier to keep him hidden from curious or suspicious or even enemy eyes. 

Short of limiting the travel to and from the castle to a select few, there is no way to do this. If, for instance, Starfall starts turning away all ships to its port or confining visitors to those ships, or stops it own residents for going about their normal travels, then they are sending up a red flag that something has changed. Something that would be noticed by their allies, if not their enemies. So, no not simpler. More comfortable and convenient, but not simpler or more effective in trying to hide from others.

[Sly Wren]

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

The same to you, and, as always, it is good to read your take on things, even when we disagree.

Same to you! 

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

If Rhaegar went around proclaiming his identity with his hair blowing in the wind, he would be very hard to hide. Yet we know his own father could not find him when he settled for Lord Connington to be his Hand. So, somehow the Crown Prince and his famous companions were able to hide. That much, at least, we know. Nor is this so shocking. We also know Ser Barristan, a very famous and recognizable figure in his own right, is able to disguise himself and walk in and out of King's Landing with all the City Watch searching for him. Hair color can be changed. Suits of armor can be hidden, banners can be furled, and effective disguises employed.

Agreed. And we have been shown how recognizable people can disguise themselves--though note that Barristan is not as well known as Rhaegar and he's traveling in Essos--easier to hide. There's a BIG gap of time unaccounted for, let alone his plans unaccounted for.

Which is why I kinda like some of the theories that Rhaegar was in Essos for a while--getting out of Dodge for whatever Tywin was up to. Not unlike Lysa skedaddles to the Eyrie while Baelish sets up his plans.

But in Dorne--hiding Rhaegar and Arthur would be very hard. 

If they hole up in a friendly place, that could work. And Martin gives us precedent on hiding Lyanna--Arya and Sansa are both hidden under disguises, while their "keepers" are themselves. Arya's hidden on the move and even in a castle. Sansa's hidden in a castle, despite the bounty on her head and her being seen by huge numbers of people right as Joff dies. She's hidden, even as Baelish is not.

If Rhaegar and/or Arthur just wanted to keep her safe, hiding her like Sansa is hidden makes a lot of sense.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

The Manwoodys seat at Kingsgrave is much closer than the Fowlers seat of Skyreach to the Tower of Joy and that would make them likely candidates for being the lords in control of the Tower of Joy, but aside from all the lame phallic jokes that connect the two locales we cannot be sure if this is the case. I would caution this may well be a case similar to The Sworn Sword. The local lord in which the Tower of Joy is located may have loyalties other than to the lord he to which he swears fealty. And like Ser Eustace, his seat need be no more than a old tower of his own. At this point we just don't know enough of the politics in the territory to tell.

Agreed--which is why I noted that the Fowlers and the Manwoodys and the Stony Dornish in general are known for their very anti-Targ sentiment. And, like the Vale Clans, do not like outsiders or the Rhoynish--like the Martells. 

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The stony Dornish have the most in common with those north of the mountains and are the least touched by Rhoynish custom. This has not made them close allies with the Marcher lords or the Lords of the Reach, however; on the contrary, it has been said that the mountain lords have a history as savage as that of the mountain clans of the Vale, having for thousands of years warred with the Reach and the stormlands, as well as with each other. If the ballads tell of brave skirmishes with cruel Dornishmen in the marches, it is largely to do with the lords of Blackmont and Kingsgrave, of Wyl and Skyreach. And of Yronwood, as well. The Wardens of the Stone Way remain the proudest and most powerful of House Martell's vassals, and theirs has been an uneasy relationship at best. World Book: Dorne: Queer Customs of the South.

Plus, the World Book says the Fowlers named themselves "Lords of the Wide Way, the Kings of Storm and Sky." So, if anyone's in that pass, they'd have to deal with the Fowlers. Who have a long history of not liking Targs or Rhoynish rule. 

Given that the World Book puts all the stony Dornish closer to the Mountain Clans of the Vale, and given what Martin has shown us of just how much the Vale clans like their local lords--the idea that Rhaegar's going to find friendly ground there seems iffy at best. The Daynes are friendly, on an island in a river in a valley. Starfall seems a safer bet.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

To your "one other thing," let me say your point would make sense if convenience was the guiding principle of Rhaegar's choice in hiding places, but not so much if remaining hidden from prying eyes from many different factions is the goal. A place like Starfall would be comfortable, but many outsiders call on the castle. Many locals whose tongues cannot be adequately controlled travel from the castle as part of their duties. The likelihood of someone saying something that provokes interest for unwanted parties if much greater in a place as large as Starfall as opposed to a hidden and remote tower.

Agreed--but if the World Book is right about the Prince's Pass being the main overland route into Dorne, and the stony Dornish NOT being friendly, and the pass being watched during wartime--Rhaegar's going to have to deal with prying eyes no matter what. "Hiding" in that pass given what we've been told seems. . . . hard.

Might he have taken the chance, ignored whatever Arthur told him, and hoped for the best? Sure. But he's a careful guy (if we go with Barristan's take). He's got plans and is careful. Seems like he might take Baelish's route and hide Lyanna in plain sight in a castle loyal to him--a castle NOT on a main route, but on an island in a river in a deep mountain valley. Or just send Arthur with Lyanna to Starfall--he could lie and say she was his paramour.

Or, if Arthur is Lyanna's lover, Arthur may have made the decision himself.

And on the bold--we have no idea how "remote" or "hidden" that tower was. As a watchtower, it would have to at least be within sight of something worth watching. Especially by people described as territorial. 

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

How the Dornish feel about the Targaryens changes throughout this history. Once the Martells marry into the royal family and bring their kingdom under the rule of the Iron Throne is only the most important of these. Rheagar's marriage to Elia and the bringing of more Dornish influence at court is another. 

Agreed--but the stony Dornish (the local lords) are described as not liking either Rhoynish rule (Martells) or the Targs. So, that marriage seems unlikely to help.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

Staying hidden at a remote tower that is no one's seat and is often unoccupied, as opposed to staying with the local supportive lord can be because of the need to protect the Lord from his own High Lords as well as the aforementioned need to limit the number of eyes who can spy out the party.

If they could find a supportive lord, maybe. But we've been given reason to think there wouldn't be one in the pass. And that in the pass, there would be territorial people keeping an eye out.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

The Martell brothers have their own quarrels with Rhaegar at this point. There is likely as much a need to hide from them as from Aerys or the Starks and the Baratheons.

Short of limiting the travel to and from the castle to a select few, there is no way to do this.

Absolutely: neither the stony Dornish nor the Rhoynars are likely to be friendly to Rhaegar at present given what he's accused of, let alone Dornish history.

One way or another, there's no perfect solution. But one Dornish family has very Rhaegar-friendly members: Daynes. No place is an "ideal" hideout. But at Starfall, they'd be away from the other stony Dornish and the Roynars and anyone else coming through the pass. On that island in that river. The rest of Dorne would be potentially dangerous if they get found. And that pass is not portrayed as "quiet" so far in the World Book.

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

If, for instance, Starfall starts turning away all ships to its port or confining visitors to those ships, or stops it own residents for going about their normal travels, then they are sending up a red flag that something has changed. Something that would be noticed by their allies, if not their enemies. So, no not simpler. More comfortable and convenient, but not simpler or more effective in trying to hide from others.

We need more info on Starfall's connection to the rest of the world before we can properly debate this (please let that book come out soon!!!!!). 

But depending on how they hid Lyanna--if they hide her at all like Arya and Sansa (who both echo Lyanna) are hidden, Starfall in that valley seems like it might be fairly cut off generally. And both Arya and even Sansa stay hidden. Martin's given us a double precedent. Might be he did that for a reason: showing us how Lyanna was hidden. 

[Kingmonkey]

8 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed. But given what we've been told about the Fowlers et. al, really sounds like they would look at the old buildings. Look at how the North manages to keep on the lookout for deserters from the Watch. And finds them. Even single ones. 

Does the North find all of them, or just a few of the less smart ones? Can they afford bribes? Are they hiding out in ruined buildings, or are they fleeing to settlements? Perhaps more to the point -- in the North, people are on the lookout for runaway Watchmen. At the Prince's Pass, they'd have been on the lookout for armies.

How practical is it to look at all the old buildings? It's a busy frontier area with ever changing borders. How many old watchtowers, forts, fortified farmsteads, crofter's huts etc. are there in the area? Hundreds? Thousands? Now given that the 3KG were in a watchtower, even assuming a few scouts did pass by, what's to stop the 3KG noticing them well before they are noticed (which is the entire purpose of a watchtower) and slipping out the back to hide behind a rock until they've gone?

The simple fact is that people successfully hide from being found ALL THE TIME, in places far less hard to oversee than thousands of square miles of mountainous terrain. Criminals go on the run and are never caught. Trekkers get lost and are never found. Rebels and insurgents hide out successfully whilst being actively hunted.  Mountaineers go missing all the bloody time. Searching mountainous terrain is incredibly hard. People are dramatically underestimating how hard if they think there's a problem here.

The degree of oversight that is being suggested here, that would make it unreasonable to believe that people could hide out in the mountains, would require a significantly greater degree of territorial oversight for an area this size than has ever been achieved by a military force in history. Modern-day military planners would allow for 10 men per square mile (which would require several times the entire manpower of Dorne) even with the huge advantage of aerial reconnaissance. Even then they would expect a significant number of enemies actively opposing them to slip through the net, let alone a half dozen random people who they had no quarrel with.

In short, unless you believe there were 50,000+ Manwoody and Fowler men scouting the Prince's Pass full time, this isn't even slightly awkward.

8 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Why not care about a small group? Small groups of raiders or spies can cause trouble. And Rhaegar the Missing Crown Prince ain't just any "small group." And given the history of antipathy towards all things Targaryen, seems like the Stony Dornish would care a lot about all that. 

It's a long way from the front lines, remember. This is just somewhere that might potentially become the front lines at some point in the future. To even know that such a small group wasn't just any small group, you'd need to see them up close. How many people do you think there are scattered around the Princes Pass? 20,000? 50,000? 100,000? More? You can fit the Iron Islands in the area, remember. They're hardly going to attempt a census.

As for spies, think about it. What are they going to be spying on?  It's not like they're going to sneak in and steal your launch codes.  Yeah, someone could be spying out the land and making a map, but even if you found them, how would you know? People aren't carrying ID cards.

8 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Second up: in Game alone, we have evidence the Northerners can track and find even single deserters in the entirety of the North--which is also huge. And that the Vale Clans look for and find even small groups of "invaders" in the Vale--which is both huge and mountainous.

I'm glad you raise the question of the Vale Clans. That's a really good example. 

Yes, the Vale Clans find victims for their raids. However they're not searching the mountains for them, they have a much easier target -- they ambush people on the road. If someone's off the road, it's much tougher. They also have the advantage that they aren't looking for anyone in particular, they're just looking for anyone. Consider how much less coverage you need to find ANYONE than to find someone in particular?

Now let's look at the area. The Vale Clans live in the foothills of the mountains of the moon. That's a huge area. Pull out your map, compare. It's bigger than the Princess Pass. But it's not massively bigger. Two times? Three times maybe? Four times, to be really generous?

So let's consider those Vale Clans. They are outlawed, and are particularly sought out by the forces of the Vale, who are actively hunting for them. Yet despite that, there are many clans that have successfully hidden away in the mountains there for hundreds if not thousands of years. 

A few dozen entire clans of brigands can successfully stay out of the way of the authorities who are actively hunting them down for hundreds of years. Why shouldn't half a dozen people who are troubling nobody be able to successfully stay out of sight when nobody's looking for them for a year or so?

8 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Going to more loyal ground--like Starfall--a lot less risky.

If you are certain of the loyalty, then yes. But you've got to be sure of the loyalty not just of the lord and his men, but of the chamber maid, the pot boy, the stable sweeper etc. When "someone always talks", you're probably better off staying off the beaten track. 

[Kingmonkey]

9 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

But the Fowlers and the Carons do not cooperate with or like each other--the Fowlers once burned Nightsong because the Carons supported the Targs. So, the idea that the Fowlers or Manwoodys or other Stony Dornish might find out and let the cat out of the bag to the Martells, or just take matters into their own hands--that would definitely still be on the table.

I think we can probably narrow it down to Manwoody land. House Caron is a Stormlands house, and we're told the toj is in Dorne. Nightsong is between Skyreach (which is at the south of the pass) and the toj, so although the Fowler's are appointed warden's of the pass, it would be more likely Manwoody men responsible for that area.

The idea of a friendly house is an intriguing one. While we don't know much of the direct loyalties of specific Dornish houses, we do know that there was a Dornish preference for Rhaegar over Aerys. We're told the Dornish retinue that accompanies Elia sided with Rhaegar in the politics of King's Landing. Could there even perhaps have been a Manwoody amongst Elia's retinue? There was one in her brother Oberon's retinue when he followed in her footsteps years later. 

9 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

One other thing: if Rhaegar has support from a house, why on earth stay in the Pass where unfriendlies might find him? Why not just stay with the friendly house (IE: Starfall)? Safer, easier, better supplies and bedding, laundry services, etc.

Apart from the whole "somebody always talks" thing, there's another possibility -- plausible deniability. It might be that Lord Manwoody, for example, was perfectly happy to help Rhaegar hide out in his territory, and even send him supplies -- but was reluctant to show his hand by actually harbouring him.

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

Apart from the whole "somebody always talks" thing, there's another possibility -- plausible deniability. It might be that Lord Manwoody, for example, was perfectly happy to help Rhaegar hide out in his territory, and even send him supplies -- but was reluctant to show his hand by actually harbouring him.

A point I was trying to make above, but you make it more succinctly. Or, with Sly Wren's own example, if a ship out of Starfall stops in the Planky Town and someone talks of how the Castle in Starfall is suddenly closed to all visitors and no one knows why, then word may get back to the Martells and someone might get suspicious just who is allowed to visit the Lord and Lady of Starfall. No, if a lord loyal to Rhaegar tries to keep his presence secret from Sunspear, be he Manwoody, Dayne, or any other sworn house of Dorne,  then he risks retribution from his liege lord - no simple problem. Being out in the middle of nowhere has its advantages if the aim is to remain hidden from all. Not so much if the aim is comfort. A lord who only secretly supports the hiding of Rhaegar's party through occasional supplies and information has greater - what was your word? "Deniability?" - if Rhaegar's party is ever found. If Rhaegar and Lyanna are found in Kingsgrave or Starfall, then it's hell to pay for the Manwoodys or the Daynes.

[Sly Wren]

13 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

n the North, people are on the lookout for runaway Watchmen. At the Prince's Pass, they'd have been on the lookout for armies.

Agreed on the Watch. But we do know the North looks out for wildlings and others, too.

As for the Pass, we have the Vale Clans watching their high road (which is a stony mountain pass) and willing to attack anyone. 

And the World Book and Areo Hotah tell us that the Dornish in general tend to fight with each other. 

So, seems like we're being told they could be looking out for rival clans, people they could rob, anything. Not just armies.

13 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

How practical is it to look at all the old buildings? It's a busy frontier area with ever changing borders. How many old watchtowers, forts, fortified farmsteads, crofter's huts etc. are there in the area? Hundreds? Thousands? Now given that the 3KG were in a watchtower, even assuming a few scouts did pass by, what's to stop the 3KG noticing them well before they are noticed (which is the entire purpose of a watchtower) and slipping out the back to hide behind a rock until they've gone?

No idea on the number. But a watchtower isn't all that hidden. Bran hiding in Queenscrown--people show up. And he's not there that long. In Martinlandia, people use the abandoned buildings as they move about. And check places out.

As for slipping out--with a pregnant woman? And all of their supplies (assuming they have things in the tower? Hoping no one sees their tracks or something?

I agree that people hide all of the time--but Martin's gone to the trouble to show us how the mountain clans like the stony Dornish operate. And how they find people on the road (assuming that watchtower has to be rather near the road). So, in the world he's given us so far, seems like planning on not being found is risky at best--especially if you are planning on a prophecy baby or some sort of sacrifice.

13 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

It's a long way from the front lines, remember. This is just somewhere that might potentially become the front lines at some point in the future. To even know that such a small group wasn't just any small group, you'd need to see them up close.

Well, the Vale Clans attack and raid each other and small parties. So, might just be looking to raid.

13 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

As for spies, think about it. What are they going to be spying on?  It's not like they're going to sneak in and steal your launch codes.  Yeah, someone could be spying out the land and making a map, but even if you found them, how would you know? People aren't carrying ID cards.

HA! Am now imagining Shagga with a nuclear silo. And getting worried.

But as for ID--Rhaegar's not subtle. Arthur Dayne is known, as is Dawn--in Dorne. And Hightower and Whent aren't exactly nobodies. 

13 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

A few dozen entire clans of brigands can successfully stay out of the way of the authorities who are actively hunting them down for hundreds of years. Why shouldn't half a dozen people who are troubling nobody be able to successfully stay out of sight when nobody's looking for them for a year or so?

Sure--but Rhaegar isn't just melting in to the snows. He's theoretically holed up in a watchtower. One place. Has to at least be in sight of the road. With an increasingly pregnant woman and supplies and all of the rest. And as for looking--the stony Dornish and the marcher lords do not like each other. Even with amongst themselves. They don't need to even be hunting for Rhaegar to stumble on him. Let alone if he's hold up in one place.

[Sly Wren]

13 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

If you are certain of the loyalty, then yes. But you've got to be sure of the loyalty not just of the lord and his men, but of the chamber maid, the pot boy, the stable sweeper etc. When "someone always talks", you're probably better off staying off the beaten track. 

One way or another, Rhaegar’s going to Dorne at all is kinda nuts. The Dornish are famously NOT interested in Targaryen rule. And going to Dorne, land of your wife, with your mistress (be it Lyanna or Ashara) when you have other options (another kingdom, or Braavos, Lys, Tyrosh—he could just cut and dye his hair blue) seems like an innately bad plan.

Unless he has assurances that he’ll be safe.

But we have precedent in the novels of how the first men clans act towards outsiders.

Tyrion gets out of his mess by promising the Vale clans they can take back their lands from their overlord—the Arryns. Rhaegar could have promised the Manwoodys something to ensure their cooperation. But if he’s trying to take over the country and fulfill a prophecy, telling the Martells, “hey, you know how I cheated on your sister? Well, you also have to give up the Prince’s Pass” does not seem like a winning move long term. And if "someone always talks"--the people you have to bribe to help you seem likely to talk when problems or a better deal comes along.

The other precedent—the clans of the North (whose champions fight with greatswords—a nod to the champion who ended the Long Night with Dawn????) help Stannis. But they don’t help him for his own cause, either. They help to help themselves (like the Vale clans) and to serve "the Ned." The leader of the ancient house of wolves that kept things safe on the Kingsroad. The leader who treated them with respect. Their first-man-brother-leader.

Rhaegar’s got no such affinity in the Red Mountains. The stony Dornish don’t like Targs. They don’t like each other (according to the World Book and Areo Hotah). They only sometimes like Martells. The idea that he could plan on being sure to get supplies and protection and silence given what we’ve seen of mountain clans in-world seems iffy at best. Rhaegar would be much better just off getting out of the country. Or going to the Reach (more loyalty to him). Or something.  Anywhere but Dorne.

But Arthur might be able to claim that loyalty among the stony Dornish. He’s one of them.

The Liddle helps Bran travelling in the North. Helps (it seems) because he’s clearly a Stark (Summer’s rather a giveaway).  The idea that the stony Dornish might have a similar affection for the Daynes, ancient protectors of that sword—that makes more sense than Rhaegar’s being able to get them on his side without promises like “I’ll return your lands.”

 But if Arthur can set up safety in the mountains of Dorne through stony Dornish loyalty, it makes even more sense that he could claim that loyalty in Starfall. Especially if they disguise Lyanna and only tell the close family who she is. And they don't have to worry about other clans or people or raiders or marchers or anyone else showing up on the road--others who may have no interest in protecting Rhaegar or Daynes.

So, unless fleeing to Dorne was a complete accident from the careful prince, seems like they had to have planned it. And planning for the fractious stony Dornish to help a Targ seems like a terrible plan. But if they are willing to help one of their own, the Daynes would be even more willing. 

 

13 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

 We're told the Dornish retinue that accompanies Elia sided with Rhaegar in the politics of King's Landing. Could there even perhaps have been a Manwoody amongst Elia's retinue? There was one in her brother Oberon's retinue when he followed in her footsteps years later. 

Agreed--but it's also in a pass. And marchers come in. And the lords don't always get along (according to the World Book and Hotah). So no matter how "loyal" the Manwoodys could end up being, they can't control everyone else who may come through there. It's a pass, not contained lands. It's innately made to travel through. If Rhaegar's there for any length of time, unknown variables show up. If he wants to keep things safe, Dorne's not a smart place to go.

13 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

Apart from the whole "somebody always talks" thing, there's another possibility -- plausible deniability. It might be that Lord Manwoody, for example, was perfectly happy to help Rhaegar hide out in his territory, and even send him supplies -- but was reluctant to show his hand by actually harbouring him.

But if someone always talks, the people with plausible deniability have little reason to help you when trouble or a better deal comes along. If this "plan" actually matters, that's an odd group to rely upon instead of family--who love you and support you and choose Arthur as their literal chosen son.

11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

 No, if a lord loyal to Rhaegar tries to keep his presence secret from Sunspear, be he Manwoody, Dayne, or any other sworn house of Dorne,  then he risks retribution from his liege lord - no simple problem.

Agreed. And if they were found out to be helping at all--they risk retribution, too. 

But we have seen this kind of loyalty from clans--the Northern clansmen's loyalty to the Ned. They are willing to risk fighting in Winter for the Ned. That fierce loyalty makes little sense towards Rhaegar. But for Arthur? That could definitely be so. And if we're looking for any kind of loyalty that could overcome risk, family seems the wisest place to go.

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Being out in the middle of nowhere has its advantages if the aim is to remain hidden from all.

But they are hiding in a pass. Where people innately travel through. And the regular inhabitants don't generally trust each other. If they want to remain hidden from all, donning disguises and getting out of the country sounds better.

Or donning disguises and hiding among family--who know who you are but others' don't--sounds smarter. 

Quote

Not so much if the aim is comfort. A lord who only secretly supports the hiding of Rhaegar's party through occasional supplies and information has greater - what was your word? "Deniability?" - if Rhaegar's party is ever found.

If and only if you trust the Manwoodys to keep up the supplies and keep their mouths shut if/when problems show up. The deniability helps them, not Rhaegar.

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If Rhaegar and Lyanna are found in Kingsgrave or Starfall, then it's hell to pay for the Manwoodys or the Daynes.

Agreed--but if they are found by raiders, hunters, clansmen, travelers, anyone--they in trouble. And if their suppliers/secret keepers change their minds, Rhaegar's in a world of hurt. 

One way or another, hiding in the pass brings huge risk. Hiding in Dorne is just a bizarre plan, period.

"Someone always talks"--given that, makes more sense to trust loyal family than fractious lords who require plausible deniability and/or bribes to help you.

[SFDanny]

14 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed. And we have been shown how recognizable people can disguise themselves--though note that Barristan is not as well known as Rhaegar and he's traveling in Essos--easier to hide. There's a BIG gap of time unaccounted for, let alone his plans unaccounted for.

Which is why I kinda like some of the theories that Rhaegar was in Essos for a while--getting out of Dodge for whatever Tywin was up to. Not unlike Lysa skedaddles to the Eyrie while Baelish sets up his plans.

But in Dorne--hiding Rhaegar and Arthur would be very hard. 

If they hole up in a friendly place, that could work. And Martin gives us precedent on hiding Lyanna--Arya and Sansa are both hidden under disguises, while their "keepers" are themselves. Arya's hidden on the move and even in a castle. Sansa's hidden in a castle, despite the bounty on her head and her being seen by huge numbers of people right as Joff dies. She's hidden, even as Baelish is not.

If Rhaegar and/or Arthur just wanted to keep her safe, hiding her like Sansa is hidden makes a lot of sense.

We agree Rhaegar is capable of dying his hair. We agree Ser Arthur and Ser Oswell are capable of not wearing their Kingsguard armor for a period of time, or at least covering it up. Maybe Dayne even hides Dawn among the baggage. I think we agree these characters are not supposed to be idiots who hide by displaying features and items that call out who they are. Why you think this means a sojourn in Essos is likely in order to remain hidden I don't quite understand. Perhaps one of the party has special friends in the Free Cities that they can count to harbor them, but we don't have a clue pointing to this being the case. A trip to Essos, only really substitutes one set of lords who can betray you for another. The difference being, in Westeros, they're much more likely to actually have real support from the lord in question.

We do have many clues that point to Rhaegar having a large faction of supporters among whom he might find help to remain hidden. In fact, I don't think any of the likely scenarios work without some kind of Dayne involvement beyond Ser Arthur's, and I don't think it makes sense to assume his support stops there.

When Pycelle warns,

Quote

"... the divisions within the Red Keep reminded him uncomfortably of the situation before the Dance of the Dragons a century before, when the enmity between Queen Aliment and Princess Rhaenyra had split the realm in two, to grievous cost. A similarly bloody conflict might await the Seven Kingdoms once again, he warned, unless some accord could be reached that would satisfy both Prince Rhaegar's supporters and the king's." (TWoI&F 125)

he is describing a realm in which Rhaegar has support enough to challenge the king with a chance of winning. That doesn't lend itself to the idea Rhaegar is friendless once he makes off with Lyanna. Of course, I know you think he doesn't, in fact, do this, but that is not the discussion of the moment. Whatever happens with Lyanna's abduction, it seems unlikely to result in Rhaegar being friendless. A faction as powerful as the one Pycelle describes has varied interests of their own and it is not hard to envision that some of his supporters remain loyal after the abduction.

Even the Martell brothers, who seem to harbor some animosity towards the Crown Prince about the Lyanna affair, have reason to not do him too much harm. They want Aegon, not Viserys, to sit the Iron Throne. It wouldn't help to have Aerys disinherit the Crown Prince. Lyanna is another matter, so if Rhaegar has feelings for her, it makes sense she is kept out of the Martell's hands - which is what we know took place. But I digress.

The point here is that there is textual support for the existence of a "Rhaegar faction" or supporters of the Crown Prince, who might help him remain hidden from all those - and there are a lot of "those" - who would turn him over to his father or do him harm in another way. Whether the Manwoodys, a local landed knight, or some other authority in the territory of the Tower of Joy fits this description remains to be discovered.

A trip to Essos doesn't get us out of the problem of local authorities being able to expose the party, or worse take them hostage for their own reasons. It just take them beyond the territory in which Rhaegar has organized his political support.

23 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

Agreed--which is why I noted that the Fowlers and the Manwoodys and the Stony Dornish in general are known for their very anti-Targ sentiment. And, like the Vale Clans, do not like outsiders or the Rhoynish--like the Martells. 

Plus, the World Book says the Fowlers named themselves "Lords of the Wide Way, the Kings of Storm and Sky." So, if anyone's in that pass, they'd have to deal with the Fowlers. Who have a long history of not liking Targs or Rhoynish rule. 

Given that the World Book puts all the stony Dornish closer to the Mountain Clans of the Vale, and given what Martin has shown us of just how much the Vale clans like their local lords--the idea that Rhaegar's going to find friendly ground there seems iffy at best. The Daynes are friendly, on an island in a river in a valley. Starfall seems a safer bet.

I think we are stretching the analogy of the Clans of the Vale too far here. The Clans of the Vale are raiding bands that have no relationship recognized by the Lords of the Vale. So, the sons of the Burning Men, for instance, would never be part of a party led by Jon Arryn to any occasion. Yet the Manwoodys are part of the Red Viper's escort to King's Landing, as are the Blackmonts. The Fowlers send their daughters to the pools of the Water Garden to grow up among the Martells and are said to be fast friends of one of the Sand Snakes - Lady Nym. I don't think ancient history, or even history of the early Targaryen rule or the wars of the Dornish conquest really informs us about the politics of pre-Robert's Rebellion lords of the Prince's Pass. Too much has changed, including a Manwoody marrying into the Targaryen royal house.

I also think your view of Starfall as an idyllic hidden Castle is wrong. It is one of the main powers of Western Dorne, and it sits on the opening of a river to the Sunset Sea - it is a port city with trade and visitors. Hardly a hidden or isolated fortress like the Eyrie. High Hermitage may be more like your description, but the relationship between the two Dayne castle isn't quite clear.

But the point isn't to debate where would be the ideal location to hide, at least in a physical sense, but how is it that Rhaegar and his party end up where we know them to have been - the Tower of Joy? And how is it they stay hidden from Aerys and others for so long a time? I think we have two likely answers.

1 - That someone in the party knows of the location before hand, and knows it to be a good place to hide from all eyes. Or,

2 - That the tower is within the boundary of someone the party trusts to help keep them hidden. This can be, as I have speculated, that the tower lies within the lands of a member of Rhaegar's trusted political faction, or there is some other type of bond that suggests trustworthiness. There of course can be a mixture of these two as well.

On 10/22/2016 at 4:20 PM, Sly Wren said:

Agreed--but if the World Book is right about the Prince's Pass being the main overland route into Dorne, and the stony Dornish NOT being friendly, and the pass being watched during wartime--Rhaegar's going to have to deal with prying eyes no matter what. "Hiding" in that pass given what we've been told seems. . . . hard.

Again, it is not anywhere near as hard as you make it out to be given the size of the area, as Kingmonkey has pointed out, and the possible help from local supporters. The proof of this is that Martin has these characters hidden away for months at a time with others who are actively searching for them, and we know that at least some part of those months are spent by some of these characters at the Tower of Joy. Rhaegar names the place, Ser Gerold finds him there, and Ned later finds the three Kingsguard, and, yes, Lyanna there as she dies. So has the author blundered and told a story that is somehow impossible to believe? No, he hasn't. As both Kingmonkey and I have shown, it is quite possible to explain just how Rhaegar's party remains hidden during this period and does so at the Tower of Joy.

And as an aside the rebellion does not start for a considerable length of time after the abduction of Lyanna, so it is highly unlikely that Dornish troops are called out in force to patrol the Prince's Pass until around the time of the Battle of the Bells. And once Rhaegar returns north to take up command of the rebel army, a search by Dornish troops of the Pass seems unneeded by the royalists and impossible by the rebels.

More later.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

12 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

One way or another, Rhaegar’s going to Dorne at all is kinda nuts. The Dornish are famously NOT interested in Targaryen rule. And going to Dorne, land of your wife, with your mistress (be it Lyanna or Ashara) when you have other options (another kingdom, or Braavos, Lys, Tyrosh—he could just cut and dye his hair blue) seems like an innately bad plan.

I disagree here. Of course, the reason as to why Rhaegar chose to be hidden during the first part of the war plays a part, and unfortunately, we do not know why he chose to do it. However, in Westeros, Rhaegar still would have had some influences, whereas in the Free Cities, Rhaegar would have little power or influence. He'd be an exile, of sorts, and whatever wealth he could potentially have taken with him when he crossed the sea, it would not have been enough to sustain him for a lifetime. Additionally, he'd be giving up his children, abandoning them and his wife. Certainly, he left them on Dragonstone while went off to play a role in the start of the war, but there is still a difference between going in hiding for months, and abandoning people forever. We assume that Rhaegar's children were important to him, giving his statement of "there must be one more", and if that is indeed the case, leaving Westeros would effectively end all chances of seeing his children again for quite some time. 

In Essos, Rhaegar would have been the crown prince who threw it all away, helped start a war, and abandoned his kingdom. What Essosi noble would be wiling to give Rhaegar aid?

The two most logical places one would look for Rhaegar would have been King's Landing, where his father reigned, or Dragonstone, his own seat. He wasn't in King's Landing, and if he had been on Dragonstone, I'd assume Aerys would have found him much, much sooner. Instead, a place where Rhaegar was unlikely to be would be the best place for him to hide, wouldn't it? And what better place than his wife's homeland? With Dorne being furious with the Targaryens (not just Rhaegar), they are not likely to give him aid.

 

Quote

Rhaegar’s got no such affinity in the Red Mountains. The stony Dornish don’t like Targs. They don’t like each other (according to the World Book and Areo Hotah). They only sometimes like Martells. The idea that he could plan on being sure to get supplies and protection and silence given what we’ve seen of mountain clans in-world seems iffy at best. Rhaegar would be much better just off getting out of the country. Or going to the Reach (more loyalty to him). Or something.  Anywhere but Dorne.

In addition to the bolded, you've also stated (in the passage quoted above) "The Dornish are famously NOT interested in Targaryen rule". Could you please elaborate why you think these two statements? I don't have the time to look up passages at the moment, and I'd really like to understand your argument completely before continueing

[maudisdottir]

Is the ToJ next to the Princes Pass? I thought it was "in the vicinity" or "near", not "right next to".  If it's not directly on the road, ie travellers would need to follow another path to reach it, then its less likely to attract a lot of attention.

As for the Fowlers not being friendly with the Martells, Lady Nym was said to be "in bed with the Fowler twins" when she got the news about Oberyn.  So I'd say relations were reasonably warm between them.  Hot, even.

[Ygrain]

The Prince's Pass is a pretty long and wide gap in the mountains. Wherever ToJ is, you can bet on one thing: it is not located right on the travellers' path/road. It is - or was - built on a ridge, and unless the said ridge happens to be the most easily passable place wide and far, the path/road goes way lower. 

[Wrl6199]

So what is this forum debating? Is it just a forum where we debate the timelines of jobs parentage.

[SFDanny]

5 hours ago, Wrl6199 said:

So what is this forum debating? Is it just a forum where we debate the timelines of jobs parentage.

Yes, I think Steve had a Syrian father if I'm not mistaken. He also made damn good computers.

[Wrl6199]

28 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Yes, I think Steve had a Syrian father if I'm not mistaken. He also made damn good computers.

Was Steve jobs father a terrorist.

 

[Black Crow]

There is a problem with this discussion of the viability of the tower as a hiding place and that's time. Given friendly supporters it is probably no great deal to get through the pass unseen, and no great deal to hide out there for a while. The trick is staying there undetected long term. The longer they are there the greater the chance of detection.

The be honest I'm not sure why there should be such a degree of polarisation over the issue.

There is no reason to doubt that Lord Eddard Stark and his companions had a fatal rencounter with three members of Aerys' Kingsguard at an old watchtower, There is an argument as to whether Lyanna Stark was present also or whether the scream was Vayon Poole's alone, but whatever the truth of that wrinkle, does it matter how long Rhaegar's party [for want of a better term] were there beforehand?

 

[LynnS]

5 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

There is a problem with this discussion of the viability of the tower as a hiding place and that's time. Given friendly supporters it is probably no great deal to get through the pass unseen, and no great deal to hide out there for a while. The trick is staying there undetected long term. The longer they are there the greater the chance of detection.

The be honest I'm not sure why there should be such a degree of polarisation over the issue.

There is no reason to doubt that Lord Eddard Stark and his companions had a fatal rencounter with three members of Aerys' Kingsguard at an old watchtower, There is an argument as to whether Lyanna Stark was present also or whether the scream was Vayon Poole's alone, but whatever the truth of that wrinkle, does it matter how long Rhaegar's party [for want of a better term] were there beforehand?

 

I'm not sure why Lyanna has to be there at all.  If RLJ is true, I don't see how the outcome would be different if she was found somewhere else.  I just think the ToJ is a broken down watchtower more suited to camping than indoor living for any length of time.  Unless she was transported there with prior knowledge of Ned's advance.  Giving birth in the tower is a bit of stretch for me.  In that case, Ned would have left with 3 living persons rather than two unless you want to argue the semantics of GRRM's statement.  I'm not sure it's worth the argument.

[Sly Wren]

18 hours ago, SFDanny said:

We agree Rhaegar is capable of dying his hair. We agree Ser Arthur and Ser Oswell are capable of not wearing their Kingsguard armor for a period of time, or at least covering it up. Maybe Dayne even hides Dawn among the baggage. I think we agree these characters are not supposed to be idiots who hide by displaying features and items that call out who they are. Why you think this means a sojourn in Essos is likely in order to remain hidden I don't quite understand. Perhaps one of the party has special friends in the Free Cities that they can count to harbor them, but we don't have a clue pointing to this being the case. A trip to Essos, only really substitutes one set of lords who can betray you for another. The difference being, in Westeros, they're much more likely to actually have real support from the lord in question.

I agree on all of this. My point re: Essos is that they could blend in better--less likely to be identified by everyone. And I agree that the evidence of a trip to Essos would be symbolic at best, at least what I've been able to cobble together.

But in wanting support from a Lord--for all of the hypotheticals we've been discussing, there is one Dornish house where we know Rhaegar has a thick-as-thieves friend: Daynes. Everyone else in Dorne is hypothetical. Daynes are actually given in the books.

18 hours ago, SFDanny said:

We do have many clues that point to Rhaegar having a large faction of supporters among whom he might find help to remain hidden.

Agreed--just not in Dorne. 

18 hours ago, SFDanny said:

The point here is that there is textual support for the existence of a "Rhaegar faction" or supporters of the Crown Prince, who might help him remain hidden from all those - and there are a lot of "those" - who would turn him over to his father or do him harm in another way. Whether the Manwoodys, a local landed knight, or some other authority in the territory of the Tower of Joy fits this description remains to be discovered.

Agreed--we know he has support elsewhere. In Dorne? The only one we know is Daynes. And we know that the stony Dornish fought Targ rule. We do have the Fowlers getting friendly at times with the Martells, but Doran doesn't trust the Fowler twins in his plans. All the rest of the Dornish houses--we got nothing. Only Daynes.

18 hours ago, SFDanny said:

A trip to Essos doesn't get us out of the problem of local authorities being able to expose the party, or worse take them hostage for their own reasons. It just take them beyond the territory in which Rhaegar has organized his political support.

True, but it ups the "blendable" faction. As we see with Barristan. As as for organized political support: we don't have the Dornish portrayed as overly supportive of Rhaegar in that war. We don't know if they would have sent their troops without Aerys' threat. Maybe they would. Maybe not. But we do know Rhaegar trusts Arthur. And that Arthur is definitely involved in his plans. In the land of the stony Dornish--which Arthur is one of.

18 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I think we are stretching the analogy of the Clans of the Vale too far here. The Clans of the Vale are raiding bands that have no relationship recognized by the Lords of the Vale. So, the sons of the Burning Men, for instance, would never be part of a party led by Jon Arryn to any occasion. Yet the Manwoodys are part of the Red Viper's escort to King's Landing, as are the Blackmonts. The Fowlers send their daughters to the pools of the Water Garden to grow up among the Martells and are said to be fast friends of one of the Sand Snakes - Lady Nym. I don't think ancient history, or even history of the early Targaryen rule or the wars of the Dornish conquest really informs us about the politics of pre-Robert's Rebellion lords of the Prince's Pass. Too much has changed, including a Manwoody marrying into the Targaryen royal house.

Agreed. What the Mountain Clans show us is their independence and their history of raiding. That's what the World Book says, too. Maybe because the Maester is prejudiced. But it's likely not entirely prejudice.

As for the Fowlers--despite all of that, Doran doesn't trust them with his secret plans. Even his trust only goes so far. And we have no evidence Rhaegar trusted them. We do know he trusted Arthur.

Hotah seems to have it right: the Dornish in general seem highly fractious. So far, we haven't seen them show the kind of loyalty to a house that we see of the northern clans towards "the Ned." No way Arthur doesn't know this. So, with all of those shifts, why trust any of them? Go with a family you can trust. And Rhaegar trusts Arthur.

18 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I also think your view of Starfall as an idyllic hidden Castle is wrong. It is one of the main powers of Western Dorne, and it sits on the opening of a river to the Sunset Sea - it is a port city with trade and visitors. Hardly a hidden or isolated fortress like the Eyrie. High Hermitage may be more like your description, but the relationship between the two Dayne castle isn't quite clear.

I looked at all references to Starfall I could find--couldn't find any indication it's a major port--did I miss the one you are referencing? Only one reference of a trip there--Oberyn and Elia's marriage-hunting tour. And Dorne doesn't have cities. Given it's locale, shipping goods up from the valley and over the mountains--I'd assume (fully admit it's assumption) that Starfall's mostly for local Red Mountain shipping. It's just a castle on an island. Sounds more like Winterfell or the Eyrie--not as isolated as the Eyrie. But still, an island on a river surrounded by big mountains. Contained. ETA: And not as big as Winterfell--World Book lists Sunspear as a "major Castle" but not Starfall. 

We need more data, but for now, it doesn't look like a main thoroughfare--which we know for sure that the Prince's Pass is.

We know lords can command enough loyalty to hide info--Ned shows that in Game when he silences gossip on Ashara. And we know Stark maids can be hidden in plain sight in castles--Arya and Sansa both show this. If there's any house Rhaegar seems like he could trust in Dorne, Daynes (so far) seem the very best bet.

18 hours ago, SFDanny said:

But the point isn't to debate where would be the ideal location to hide, at least in a physical sense,

Well, if Rhaegar's plan matters to him, seems like asking "ideals" would be worth considering, no?

Quote

but how is it that Rhaegar and his party end up where we know them to have been - the Tower of Joy?

But we never see Rhaegar there. And only hear from hearsay about the "tower of joy" thing. So, even that Rhaegar was there as part of this "adventure"--right now, that's not set yet.

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And how is it they stay hidden from Aerys and others for so long a time? I think we have two likely answers:

1 - That someone in the party knows of the location before hand, and knows it to be a good place to hide from all eyes. Or,

If so, as I said, that would be Arthur. And if Arthur's sure he can wrangle safety in the Red Mountains, makes more sense he could get it at home. Since both he and Ashara are in Rhaegar's inner circle.

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2 - That the tower is within the boundary of someone the party trusts to help keep them hidden. This can be, as I have speculated, that the tower lies within the lands of a member of Rhaegar's trusted political faction, or there is some other type of bond that suggests trustworthiness. There of course can be a mixture of these two as well.

Agreed--and the ONLY family we've been told Rhaegar had anyone he really trusted in--Daynes. If you're going to trust a lord to work with you long term, seems like you'd go with the family you know you can trust.

18 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Again, it is not anywhere near as hard as you make it out to be given the size of the area, as Kingmonkey has pointed out, and the possible help from local supporters.

But Martin has shown us how easily people are found/stumbled upon in similar regions--Tyrion gets "found" twice during his sojourn to the Vale. As @Black Crow says below, the issue is time. If Martin's showing us how easily people get "stumbled" upon--Tyrion, Brienne and Jaime, Bran almost getting found at Queenscrown--the idea that they could just hole up and be confident to not get found--seems like Martin's given us a lot of precedent to distrust that in his world.

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The proof of this is that Martin has these characters hidden away for months at a time with others who are actively searching for them, and we know that at least some part of those months are spent by some of these characters at the Tower of Joy.

But this assumes they actually spent time there, which we don't have. Not yet.

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Rhaegar names the place,

But we don't know he did this. Only "it was said that." And even if he did name it, we don't know the context.

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Ser Gerold finds him there, <snip>and, yes, Lyanna there as she dies.

We don't have either or these in the books yet.

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So has the author blundered and told a story that is somehow impossible to believe? No, he hasn't.

Right--he's left so many holes that lots of options are possible re: where Rhaegar is, what he's up to, where Lyanna is, and who got her pregnant. Given all of those holes, we have a lot of options re: what's believable.

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As both Kingmonkey and I have shown, it is quite possible to explain just how Rhaegar's party remains hidden during this period and does so at the Tower of Joy.

And as I noted above, Martin has given us lots of precedent re: how often people get stumbled upon, especially in mountain passes. And told us that the Wide Way is the main overland route. And told us that the stony Dornish have a fractious history with each other and with the marchers. Lots of conflict and potential tumult. Especially during a war.

There's got to be at least a chance that Martin gives us those precedents and history for a reason.

And tells us that Rhaegar's best friend is Arthur--an stony Dornishman. 

18 hours ago, SFDanny said:

And as an aside the rebellion does not start for a considerable length of time after the abduction of Lyanna, so it is highly unlikely that Dornish troops are called out in force to patrol the Prince's Pass until around the time of the Battle of the Bells.

But it is likely that the stony Dornish in the pass are always keeping an eye out--for raiders, for marchers looking to make trouble, for other stony Dornish making trouble. It's a pass--seems like you'd watch no matter what.

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And once Rhaegar returns north to take up command of the rebel army, a search by Dornish troops of the Pass seems unneeded by the royalists and impossible by the rebels.

They don't have to be "searching." Just keeping an eye out and being suspicious of outsiders.

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More later.

[Sly Wren]

13 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

I disagree here. Of course, the reason as to why Rhaegar chose to be hidden during the first part of the war plays a part, and unfortunately, we do not know why he chose to do it. However, in Westeros, Rhaegar still would have had some influences,

Right--all the more reason for Rhaegar to turn to people he knew he could trust. In Dorne, we know he trusts Arthur Dayne.

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whereas in the Free Cities, Rhaegar would have little power or influence. He'd be an exile, of sorts, and whatever wealth he could potentially have taken with him when he crossed the sea, it would not have been enough to sustain him for a lifetime. Additionally, he'd be giving up his children, abandoning them and his wife. Certainly, he left them on Dragonstone while went off to play a role in the start of the war, but there is still a difference between going in hiding for months, and abandoning people forever. We assume that Rhaegar's children were important to him, giving his statement of "there must be one more", and if that is indeed the case, leaving Westeros would effectively end all chances of seeing his children again for quite some time.

Ah! Sorry for not being clearer--I just meant that he'd hide out in Essos until he finished his plan (whatever it ends up being) and comes back. In Essos, he could blend in a bit better--as we see with Barristan. I don't think Rhaegar intended to abandon Westers.

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In Essos, Rhaegar would have been the crown prince who threw it all away, helped start a war, and abandoned his kingdom. What Essosi noble would be wiling to give Rhaegar aid?

One way or another, Rhaegar's the guy who helped start a war. As for lords who'd help him--I'd need to do a search on the Targs' contacts abroad. But I was thinking if he took enough cash, he could just rent a small house under an assumed name or something. COMPLETELY hypothetical.

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The two most logical places one would look for Rhaegar would have been King's Landing, where his father reigned, or Dragonstone, his own seat. He wasn't in King's Landing, and if he had been on Dragonstone, I'd assume Aerys would have found him much, much sooner. Instead, a place where Rhaegar was unlikely to be would be the best place for him to hide, wouldn't it? And what better place than his wife's homeland? With Dorne being furious with the Targaryens (not just Rhaegar), they are not likely to give him aid.

I agree on the "unlikely"--but hiding in his wife's homeland, especially one that resisted Targ rule, brings innate problems if he gets found. As @Black Crow notes, the problem is the duration. The longer they are there, the more likely they will be found/stumbled upon. If he wants to be sure of whatever his plan is, going someplace with people he trusts--that makes more sense than just hoping no one unfriendly finds him when he's in a pass in his wife's homeland.

13 hours ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

In addition to the bolded, you've also stated (in the passage quoted above) "The Dornish are famously NOT interested in Targaryen rule". Could you please elaborate why you think these two statements? I don't have the time to look up passages at the moment, and I'd really like to understand your argument completely before continueing

I was going with the general history the Dornish have of resisting unified rule. Took a long time to conquer them and then they immediately started rebelling. And the Martells got to keep their "Prince" titles.

Aerys may just have been being horrifying, but he seems to think it's necessary to threaten the Martells to get their support in the war. And they don't join the Rebellion until the Trident, right? 

Just seems like the books tell us they don't like being ruled. And the stony Dornish were part of all of those fights against the Targs, far as I could tell. 

One quick thing I've been meaning to ask you--and anyone else who knows RLJ theory well: there's an SSM I've seen referenced a few times, allegedly saying that Martin confirmed that Rhaegar said Lyanna's name in Dany's vision. I've looked everywhere I can think of including every SSM in the Citadel with "Lyanna" or Lyanna's" in it. No joy. Any chance you know that SSM and have the link? Or could just point me in the right direction where I could rummage for it?

If not, or if you don't have time, no worries. Just trying to pin that down.

7 hours ago, Ygrain said:

The Prince's Pass is a pretty long and wide gap in the mountains. Wherever ToJ is, you can bet on one thing: it is not located right on the travellers' path/road. It is - or was - built on a ridge, and unless the said ridge happens to be the most easily passable place wide and far, the path/road goes way lower. 

But if it's a watchtower (we don't have that in the books yet, but that seems likely), it's got to be within eyeshot of something worth watching. Presumably (I fully admit I'm assuming) that tower is watching the pass. Which means it's got to be visible in the Pass. So, it's very unlikely to be completely hidden.