US Politics: Redefining National Security

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

4 minutes ago, maarsen said:

When China buys a US bond for say 100 dollars, there is the expectation at a future date to get that money plus interest back. If China dumps a lot of bonds on the market, the price of the bonds, the face value plus the interest, will also drop. What this does then hurts the US, because rather than buy new bonds from the US, people can buy discounted bonds from China, for a better price. The US then has to up the interest rate on any new bonds it hopes to sell in order to stay competitive. If China drops enough US bonds on the market,  the ability of the US to actually raise money at a reasonable cost then becomes severely constrained. Trump then does to the US what he has already done 4 times to himself. Not be able to pay his bills.

Or Trump says that the USA won't honor any Chinese owned bonds that they dump on the markets. What then? 

[Dr. Pepper]

The problem for the rest of us is that Trump's supporters and members of his party have told him that they don't care about ethics or conflicts of interest or unconstitutional orders.  Kellyanne Conway was right that they litigated this during the campaign.  Those who voted for him and members of his party will rollover for him no matter what.  He can do anything and they won't quit sniffing his ass.  If they aren't speaking out about these recent outrageous acts coming out of the admin, then they'll never speak out.  

[Fragile Bird]

15 minutes ago, maarsen said:

When China buys a US bond for say 100 dollars, there is the expectation at a future date to get that money plus interest back. If China dumps a lot of bonds on the market, the price of the bonds, the face value plus the interest, will also drop. What this does then hurts the US, because rather than buy new bonds from the US, people can buy discounted bonds from China, for a better price. The US then has to up the interest rate on any new bonds it hopes to sell in order to stay competitive. If China drops enough US bonds on the market,  the ability of the US to actually raise money at a reasonable cost then becomes severely constrained. Trump then does to the US what he has already done 4 times to himself. Not be able to pay his bills.

Well, exactly. Everyone is fixated on an idea of the Chinese trying to call US bonds, but you can't do that, usually, unless the bonds are in default. Dumping the bonds would put the market in turmoil.

Alternatively, the Chinese could also decide not to roll over bonds as they come due. Somewhere there's a list of bond maturity dates, and I'm sure tens of millions of Chinese owned bonds come due every month. One assumes replacing such a big purchaser would not be easy, requiring interest rates to go up to attract buyers.

Mind you, I understand that the Chinese are no longer the biggest holders of US paper anymore, I read that the Japanese have just taken over the lead.

[sToNED_CAT]

7 minutes ago, maarsen said:

 If China drops enough US bonds on the market,  the ability of the US to actually raise money at a reasonable cost then becomes severely constrained. Trump then does to the US what he has already done 4 times to himself. Not be able to pay his bills.

China doesn't have THAT much US bonds. Like I said they reduced their share of US debt and the leverage, that comes with it few years ago. They are also much more vulnerable to economic countermeasures in general, because they are still primarily an export economy depending on foreign markets.

11 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

The more I hear about Bannon's apparent influence in Trump's administration, the more I think America is going to find itself in a South Korea-type situation somewhere down the line.

Oh, please. What's the difference between Bannon and Valerie Jarret for example? The fact is Trump has 2 main advisers: Priebus who is more mainstream guy and Bannon who represents Trump's core base. They are going to be involved in every political decision in future and will have access pretty much everywhere. Every president in last decades had such advisors (not confirmed by Congress too).

[Martell Spy]

Quote

Mind you, I understand that the Chinese are no longer the biggest holders of US paper anymore, I read that the Japanese have just taken over the lead.

Sweet. Now we can go back to the 80's, when Japan Megacorps were going to rule the future.

[Fragile Bird]

5 minutes ago, Khaleesi did nothing wrong said:

Or Trump says that the USA won't honor any Chinese owned bonds that they dump on the markets. What then? 

What then what? The USA shoots itself in the foot with lenders around the world? How would this help the US? The US sells tens of millions in bonds every week. How are they going to sell them if all of a sudden their bonds couldn't be traded, creating an illiquid market. Who would buy them?

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

What then what? The USA shoots itself in the foot with lenders around the world? How would this help the US? The US sells tens of millions in bonds every week. How are they going to sell them if all of a sudden their bonds couldn't be traded, creating an illiquid market. Who would buy them?

Yes, it would hurt American finances too, but not as much as the Chinese ones. It doesn't change the fact that China owning tonnes of American debt puts them in a risky relationship with USA more than the other way around, which is why I got into this discussion in the first place. China doesn't have the ability of somehow killing off the American economy by "calling in" their debts, which is an idea I've seen repeated many times on the internet and not just in this thread. In reality USA could flush those debts down the toilet tomorrow and there wouldn't be much China could do about it. 

[maarsen]

What everybody understands is Trump refusing to honour debts  ends up costing you when you try to get a mortgage or a car loan and interest rates are shooting up.  Lots of countries have tried to default on their debts before. Does the US really want to be the new Argentina?

[sToNED_CAT]

2 minutes ago, maarsen said:

What everybody understands is Trump refusing to honour debts  ends up costing you when you try to get a mortgage or a car loan and interest rates are shooting up.  Lots of countries have tried to default on their debts before. Does the US really want to be the new Argentina?

Well, USA is in much stronger position than Argentina, when it comes to default and debt renegotiation. There's one secret BTW - the ability of US govt to service debt is based on unusually low interest rates. When those goes up, so does the cost of paying yearly interest. It might start to consume so much of budget that bankrupcy or debt renegotiation will be the only options.

[mormont]

30 minutes ago, sToNED_CAT said:

She doesn't even know what geneva convention says.

Given the choice between the German Chancellor and a random person on a message board, I think I know whose understanding of the Geneva Refugee Convention I'm going to trust.

30 minutes ago, sToNED_CAT said:

 Instead Merkel invited them all to Germany. She will lose election, and destroy CDU in process, because of that.

Of course if this doesn't come to pass, you'll simply move on to the next dire prediction of awful consequences instead of rethinking your stance. So, again, not really seeing why anyone should grant this any weight.

30 minutes ago, sToNED_CAT said:

The demographics of Europe has been altered, perhaps irreversibly. And EU has no desire to defend itself. The result are not apparent immediately, but given the current demographic composition of younger generations, politically relevant radical islam will become fact of European life in 2 decades. Not terrorism, that will become fact of life much sooner, I'm talking about political parties freely advocating intolerance much worse than Wilders, Le Pen or other examples of "far right".

You should read up on immigration. Every immigration 'crisis' features exactly this kind of rhetoric. We are to be swamped, our way of life will soon be irrevocably altered, the immigrants will impose their values instead of taking on ours. Always these things are threatened, but history shows they don't actually happen.

30 minutes ago, sToNED_CAT said:

 So refugee and immigration bans just became more acceptable in western world, and that's the thing that pleases me most.

That's quite sad. It says a lot about how small your heart is.

[Martell Spy]

So, it looks like a female ninja was behind those audio recordings Politico had of the ACA Republican discussions.

 

Officials say intruder gained access to GOP retreat

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/intruder-gop-retreat-234319

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

3 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

So, it looks like a female ninja was behind those audio recordings Politico had of the ACA Republican discussions.

 

Officials say intruder gained access to GOP retreat

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/intruder-gop-retreat-234319

Russian spy?

http://vignette4.wikia.nocookie.net/avengersalliance/images/7/7c/Black_Widow_Marvel_XP.png/revision/latest?cb=20120315064650

[LongRider]

7 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

So, it looks like a female ninja was behind those audio recordings Politico had of the ACA Republican discussions.

 

Officials say intruder gained access to GOP retreat

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/intruder-gop-retreat-234319

Quote

"Leaks from internal members discussions are unacceptable," McMorris Rodgers said.

Mitt Romney would wholeheartedly agree!   lol

[Bennis of the Brown Shield]

22 minutes ago, maarsen said:

What everybody understands is Trump refusing to honour debts  ends up costing you when you try to get a mortgage or a car loan and interest rates are shooting up.  Lots of countries have tried to default on their debts before. Does the US really want to be the new Argentina?

There is a big difference between a total sovereign default and just doing it against the debts to a specific country. That said, considering China only owns about 5% of US gov. debt the entire problem is a bit of a non issue anyway. China could dump all their American bonds on the market and it still probably wouldn't make too much of a difference. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

2 hours ago, Altherion said:

How confident are you that they did not do it this way on purpose? It's a pretty standard bargaining technique: come out with something outrageous and then when you get called on it, dial it down to what you wanted in the first place.

Bargaining for what? If they started with what they wanted they would have got it anyways....

47 minutes ago, sToNED_CAT said:

There will always be problems with implementation of every executive order. This affected so many people, that it would be impossible to not find adversely affected individuals, especially if media decide to start digging.

Cool bro. Next time someone complains about Obamacare, I will refer to this argument, ok?

It isnt just 'problems', it was outright chaos at airports.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

44 minutes ago, sToNED_CAT said:

China doesn't have THAT much US bonds. Like I said they reduced their share of US debt and the leverage, that comes with it few years ago. They are also much more vulnerable to economic countermeasures in general, because they are still primarily an export economy depending on foreign markets.

Oh, please. What's the difference between Bannon and Valerie Jarret for example? The fact is Trump has 2 main advisers: Priebus who is more mainstream guy and Bannon who represents Trump's core base. They are going to be involved in every political decision in future and will have access pretty much everywhere. Every president in last decades had such advisors (not confirmed by Congress too).

Are you saying Trump's "core base" are the White Nationalist shitheads from Breitbart?

[sToNED_CAT]

2 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Are you saying Trump's "core base" are the White Nationalist shitheads from Breitbart?

Patriots Scot, Patriots.

21 minutes ago, mormont said:

Given the choice between the German Chancellor and a random person on a message board, I think I know whose understanding of the Geneva Refugee Convention I'm going to trust.

You should read up on immigration. Every immigration 'crisis' features exactly this kind of rhetoric. We are to be swamped, our way of life will soon be irrevocably altered, the immigrants will impose their values instead of taking on ours. Always these things are threatened, but history shows they don't actually happen.

That's quite sad. It says a lot about how small your heart is.

1. Oh, I believe, she knows exactly what GC says. She's just lying.

2.. That's because these immigration levels are unprecedented in modern (post WWII) history, especially combined with low native birthrates.

3. Better to have small heart, than small brain (this is not directed at you, I don't mean it as an insult). There are individual refugee stories that are truly heartbreaking. That said it is stupid to admit millions of people who will islamize EU, just because a body of small boy washed up on shore in Greece.

[LongRider]

20 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Are you saying Trump's "core base" are the White Nationalist shitheads from Breitbart?

 

6 minutes ago, sToNED_CAT said:

Patriots Scot, Patriots.

 

White supremacists, you mean.  White supremacists.

[Squab]

I was surprised that during the election calling people racist sexist bigots didn't work. 

It is comforting to see calling people Nazis and white supremacists is showing more promise.

[mormont]

5 minutes ago, sToNED_CAT said:

1. Oh, I believe, she knows exactly what GC says. She's just lying.

Really, that's the best argument you've got here? You're not wrong, someone else is lying?

5 minutes ago, sToNED_CAT said:

2.. That's because these immigration levels are unprecedented in modern (post WWII) history, especially combined with low native birthrates.

And again, this is what is always said about immigration: this time is different.

5 minutes ago, sToNED_CAT said:

3. Better to have small heart, than small brain

Better to have a large heart and a large brain, of course. I tend to find the two go together. I've known people with small brains and large hearts, but very few with large brains and small hearts. That's because someone with a small heart has a boundary on their understanding of the world. It limits you.

The current hysteria about immigration is driven by disinformation, hysteria, prejudice, illogical fear, and a poor understanding of things like statistics, risk and economics. The smart people are on the other side from you.