U.S. Politics: Are You Threadening Me Master Jedi?

[IamMe90]

Trump reportedly considering asking Sessions to prosecute Mueller. (CNN)

LOL if this is true. Like, seriously, every time Trump has an idea, any idea at all, he should shut the fuck up and not say it, because it's going to be fucking leaked to the press. 

[Larry of the Lawn]

This just in Paul Ryan to give Trump a foot massage during the SOTU address tonight.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Solid break down @dmc515. Here's some supplemental data for anyone that's interested.

Really happy to seen the numbers in my home state (MN). Trump's disapproval ratings went from 37% to  58% over the course of 2017, which is really important because we've got two senate seats up in 2018, as well as a gubernatorial race. 2016's state wide results were not making me feel very confident a year ago.

[DMC]

And now, as a respite from the apoplectic rhetoric, the minority view:

Quote

In the new book How Democracies Die, Harvard political scientists Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt analyze the strategies used by leaders who have taken over a democracy and turned it into an authoritarian state. They found three common tactics: seizing control of courts and security services, marginalizing prominent individuals in the opposition and civil society, and changing election rules to rig the game against their political opponents. “Trump,” they write, “attempted all three of these strategies.”

The key word in that sentence, however, is “attempted.”

Trump’s assaults on democracy have, for the most part, been repulsed. The courts, the federal bureaucracy, the states, and even large numbers of ordinary Americans have all played a vital role in restraining the president’s authoritarian tendencies.

“Despite clear cause for concern, little actual backsliding occurred in 2017,” Levitsky and Ziblatt conclude. “We did not cross the line into authoritarianism.”

This is encouraging. America’s core institutions may not be in perfect health, but they seem to be functioning well enough to constrain a president who’s gone after essential parts of its democratic system. When it comes to the most basic question for any democracy — can it sustain itself? — the answer right now is a surprisingly clear yes.

 

[Ormond]

2 hours ago, dmc515 said:

So Gallup just put out Trump's approval by state for the the entirety of 2017.  They put out something similar in July, so it's interesting to compare the two.  In fact, I just spent a half hour putting together a spreadsheet to do just that. 

Now, it should be emphasized that any changes between the two should be depressed due to the fact the sample in July comprises a good portion of the overall sample for 2017.  That being said, in terms of "net" approval (approve minus disapprove), Trump increased from July to the entire year report in only four states:  Vermont (+2), Wyoming, West Virginia, and Maine (all +1).  The net approval for Maryland and Idaho stayed the same, so in 44 states Trump's net approval has decreased since July.  In eleven states, his net approval has decreased by at least 6 points - they are the following (percentage of the sample that was taken since the July report in parentheses):

1. Hawaii -12  (51%)
2. Rhode Island -12  (57%)
3. Kansas -10  (52%)
4. Montana -8  (50%)
5. New Hampshire -8  (54%)
6. Arkansas -7  (50%)
7. Nebraska -7  (52%)
8. Illinois -7  (54%)
9. Connecticut -7  (54%)
10. Indiana -6  (53%)
11. Texas -6  (52%)

 

I am surprised by Texas. It's just a bit amazing to me that Texas would be the only state that voted for Trump where his approval is below 40% according to Gallup. 

[Yukle]

2 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I am surprised by Texas. It's just a bit amazing to me that Texas would be the only state that voted for Trump where his approval is below 40% according to Gallup. 

It has a very high Latino population, as well as the private citizens who own the land where he wants to repossess to build his big beautiful wall that Mexico will pay for.

That said, voter suppression has long stopped Texas being a swing state, and those on the Rio Grande are only so many voters.

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Solid break down @dmc515.

Thanks.  And forgot to mention - since I put the data in stata I can play around with it really easily within seconds/minutes, so if anyone wants any type of breakdowns just lemme know.

[Martell Spy]

Classic spineless Paul Ryan.

Quote

 

Speaker Paul Ryan urged Republican colleagues Tuesday to avoid overstating the findings of a classified House intelligence committee memo that alleges misconduct by FBI officials investigating Trump campaign contacts with Russia.

In a closed-door meeting with House Republicans at the Capitol, Ryan (R-Wis.) also urged lawmakers not to connect the findings of the memo with the probe being run by special counsel Robert Mueller, according to a source in the room. Ryan pleaded with members not to oversell the memo and to distinguish it from Mueller's investigation.

 

Ryan urges Republicans to take caution with FBI memo
He also urged them not to connect the memo's findings to Robert Mueller's probe.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/30/ryan-urges-republicans-to-take-caution-with-fbi-memo-377038

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I am surprised by Texas. It's just a bit amazing to me that Texas would be the only state that voted for Trump where his approval is below 40% according to Gallup. 

Fingers crossed this means Cruz can be knocked off. Looking at that map makes me think that the Senate really isn't that much of a long shot. 

[Martell Spy]

It’s no surprise that Democrats have panned the White House’s immigration framework. But now Republicans are increasingly uncomfortable with President Donald Trump’s proposal to deeply cut legal immigration in exchange for protecting nearly two million Dreamers.

Republicans balk at Trump’s cuts to legal immigration
The president’s proposal is running into sharp opposition from key figures in his own party, complicating chances of a deal to protect Dreamers.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/30/trump-legal-immigration-republicans-378041

[Shryke]

5 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Classic spineless Paul Ryan.

Ryan urges Republicans to take caution with FBI memo
He also urged them not to connect the memo's findings to Robert Mueller's probe.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/30/ryan-urges-republicans-to-take-caution-with-fbi-memo-377038

Then he also said this:

Quote

 

House Speaker Paul Ryan called for a "cleanse" of the FBI and the release of a classified memo that Republicans say outlines surveillance abuse against the Trump campaign, Fox News reported Tuesday.

"Let it all out, get it all out there, cleanse the organization," Ryan said at a breakfast event with members of the press, according to the report.

"I think we should disclose all this stuff" in the memo, said Ryan, who has previously skirted questions about it. "It's the best disinfectant — accountability, transparency, for the sake of the reputation of our institutions."

 

http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-ryan-wants-fbi-cleanse-gop-memo-release-2018-1

So, you know, woo for purges!

[DMC]

4 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Fingers crossed this means Cruz can be knocked off. Looking at that map makes me think that the Senate really isn't that much of a long shot. 

As the Gallup writeup mentions, the concerning thing about that is his approval remains high in WV (61/35), ND (57/39), and MT (52/45) - although at least with the latter his approval dropped four points since July.  The good news is Trump's support is eroding in Indiana (44/51 compared to 47/48 in July) and even Missouri (47/48 compared to 49/46), which should help Donnelly and McCaskill.

[Larry of the Lawn]

8 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

It’s no surprise that Democrats have panned the White House’s immigration framework. But now Republicans are increasingly uncomfortable with President Donald Trump’s proposal to deeply cut legal immigration in exchange for protecting nearly two million Dreamers.

Republicans balk at Trump’s cuts to legal immigration
The president’s proposal is running into sharp opposition from key figures in his own party, complicating chances of a deal to protect Dreamers.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/30/trump-legal-immigration-republicans-378041

Yeah, I heard an interview with Will Hurd (R- Texas) where he was pretty critical of trying to pass a broad immigration bill.  I guess he's working on one with Pete Aguilar that just handles DACA and border security, and he mentioned that a wall is a stupid, expensive and ineffiecent solution to border security.

 

 

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

The fight over Trump’s determination to purge law enforcement will mostly disappear into inscrutable legalistic disputes. It will be all too easy for Republican partisans to bury themselves in the details: Were procedures violated? Perhaps they have been violated before. Are Trump’s opponents complaining? They didn’t complain about things conservatives opposed in the past. And so on.

Here is a small example. National Review writer Dan McLaughlin mocks the idea that Trump’s FBI purge poses any kind of threat to democracy:

 

Trump’s Law Enforcement Purge Is Now Republican Policy

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/trumps-law-enforcement-purge-is-now-republican-policy.html

 

[Shryke]

1 hour ago, WinterFox said:

Eh, it's pretty bad. Really bad. 

Those who have used words like "terrifying", "unthinkable", or "end of democracy" aren't exactly wrong. 

But let's remember that we've known for over a week that Nunes was going to do this. Let's see, folks. Batten down the hatches, steele yourselves for a dogfight until November. It is worth pointing out that Ryan and his coalition are cowards, cowards who will abandon this president the moment they feel the last of their footing shake loose from under them. 

It's a new low. It's scary. 

It's REALLY bad. 

But we're still here. We've still got a shot to take back the house. 

Personally I am most concerned about this lack of action on Russia sanctions. If Ryan and McConnel let this go unchallenged then it falls on our career civil servants to fight the powers that be from giving away the farm. 

But I think that is what will undo this man and his administration. The clear unwillingness to engage on Russian invasion into the American homeland is something that people notice. If Donald had an ounce of intelligence about him he would have obfuscated the lack of action with bland statements about "implementation and delicacy" for the rest of his natural life. Coming out and saying that he wasn't going to implement sanctions was the biggest mistake he's made while in office. I am hoping that is addressed in the follow up analysis of his State of the Union and that party leaders are hammered about this in after action interviews. 

Now where we go from here as a country is complicated regarding implementation and delicacy. I don't think it would be appropriate for me to address that at this time. Intrastate elections are quite byzantine and it would not be in this administrations interest to commit ourselves to a plan of action verbally that might ultimately fail to address the seriousness of the situation. Rest assured, these dictates from congress will be put into effect, as you know the president already signed them into law. We just want to ensure that the delicacies of the prospect are properly managed. Thank you all for your time.  (It's easy to say a lot of nothing if you're not 100% brain dead) 

Sadly the GOP Congress is 100% complicit in this treason, so there is no pushback against it and a lack of groundswell support for one because the base believes as the propaganda outlets tell them too.

And there's been a bunch of news on this front recently.

Specifically I'd say these 3 stories I haven't seen touched on yet:

1) https://thinkprogress.org/trump-administration-outsources-russia-policy-to-forbes-magazine-95d0eda1becd/

Quote

 

For months, Russian higher-ups had been shaken by the prospect of being named by the U.S. as a close confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin. As stipulated by the unwieldy 2017 Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), the Trump administration had some 180 days to detail those voices who held sway with the Kremlin – and who would suddenly face the prospect of individual sanctions. And all of them, according to the Moscow Times, were “doing everything possible to keep their names off the list.”

The deadline for the White House’s findings came yesterday – as did, late at night, the administration’s final list of politicians, oligarchs, and industrialists deemed of importance.

But instead of any concern rippling through Moscow, there now seems, at first blush, a sense of relief. Because while there are some 114 officials and 96 business figures named, it appears that the administration put little research into their list, and effectively outsourced their work to both Forbes and the Kremlin website.

 

Quote

At the last minute, however, somebody high up – no one knows who at this point – threw out the experts’ work and instead wrote down the names of the top officials in the Russian presidential administration and government plus the 96 Russian billionaires on the Forbes list. In doing so, this senior official ridiculed the government experts who had prepared another report, rendering CAATSA ineffective and mocking US sanctions on Russia overall. By signing this list, the secretary of the treasury took responsibility for it.

Someone high up, at the last minute, threw out the list compiled by government experts on which Russians should be sanctioned and instead just threw a bunch of names from a Forbes Top 100 list on there instead.

 

2) https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-sanctioned-spy-chief-reportedly-met-cia-director-in-the-us/?via=twitter_page

Quote

 

Russia’s sanctioned spy chief recently visited the United States and reportedly met with CIA Director Mike Pompeo, Russian state media reported Tuesday.

Sergey Naryshkin, director of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the SVR, was spotted aboard a commercial Aeroflot flight to the United States, Russian state-owned news channel Rossiya-1 reported. The SVR is blamed by the U.S. government for a key role in the Kremlin’s interference with the 2016 election. A reporter for the network said Naryshkin landed in New York and met with the CIA director.

Representatives for the CIA and the office of the Director of National Intelligence declined comment to The Daily Beast about whether Pompeo or any other U.S. intelligence official recently met with with Naryshkin—who has been under U.S. sanctions for the past three years.

 

One of the top men responsible for the Russian interference in the 2016 election just came to the US yesterday and the Trump admin let him in.

 

3) https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/01/29/wikileaks-founder-messaged-someone-pretending-to-be-sean-hannity-heres-what-he-said

Quote

 

WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange attempted to message Fox News’ Sean Hannity over his Twitter account, but instead got duped into interacting with an imposter impersonating Hannity on social media.

 

Quote

According to screenshots of the conversation at the Daily Beast, Assange told the Hannity impersonator that he had information about “Warner” that he wanted to provide the Fox News host via “other channels.”

Russian government affiliated group Wikileaks directly contacts right-wing propaganda man to pass him damaging information about a key US Congressman who is the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee and thus the top man on the House investigation off Russian interference who isn't just trying to cover it up.

 

The TLDR is that some deeply fucked up shit with the Trump Admin, the GOP and Russia has been going on recently.

[Martell Spy]

10 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Yeah, I heard an interview with Will Hurd (R- Texas) where he was pretty critical of trying to pass a broad immigration bill.  I guess he's working on one with Pete Aguilar that just handles DACA and border security, and he mentioned that a wall is a stupid, expensive and ineffiecent solution to border security.

 

 

Well even the white nationalist faction that surrounds Trump doesn't give a damn about the wall. Trump is the only one that cares about the wall, and that's assuming that even he cares and isn't just pretending. It is possible though he sees it as keeping a campaign promise or sees at ego fulfillment. None of the nationalists though want to trade away real gains on policy for the wall.

Also the white nationalist position on immigration is a minority in the Republican party, or used to be anyway. It's hardly business friendly to put regulations like E-verify into workplaces and punish employers that don't comply.

Plus, any Republican stupid enough to support attacking legal immigration is giving lie to the whole Republican argument that this isn't about race, it's just about the crime of illegal immigration. That's been the whole basis Republican whining about immigration ever since the Bush Jr. era or so.

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, WinterFox said:

 

But I think that is what will undo this man and his administration. The clear unwillingness to engage on Russian invasion into the American homeland is something that people notice.

You're assuming enough people to make a difference actually believe Russia meddled in the US elections, and continues to do so. Outwardly, at least, Trump is skeptical or possibly outright denying that Russia did anything wrong. That being Trump's public position on the matter it is actually logical for Trump to stonewall on implementing any sanctions. And if enough people believe Trump's public position that there was no interference, then nothing bad will come of his refusal to implement sanctions.

That's not to say he could have gone about the non-implementation in a more intelligent way, of course.

[Larry of the Lawn]

5 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Well even the white nationalist faction that surrounds Trump doesn't give a damn about the wall. Trump is the only one that cares about the wall, and that's assuming that even he cares and isn't just pretending. It is possible though he sees it as keeping a campaign promise or sees at ego fulfillment. None of the nationalists though want to trade away real gains on policy for the wall.

Also the white nationalist position on immigration is a minority in the Republican party, or used to be anyway. It's hardly business friendly to put regulations like E-verify into workplaces and punish employers that don't comply.

Plus, any Republican stupid enough to support attacking legal immigration is giving lie to the whole Republican argument that this isn't about race, it's just about the crime of illegal immigration. That's been the whole basis Republican whining about immigration ever since the Bush Jr. era or so.

Yup.  I think realistically they can pass something that gives a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers and others in the same situation, and maybe $50-$100 billion border security package that won't really be a wall.  Touching legal immigration seems like a nonstarter. 

[IamMe90]

26 minutes ago, Shryke said:

Sadly the GOP Congress is 100% complicit in this treason, so there is no pushback against it and a lack of groundswell support for one because the base believes as the propaganda outlets tell them too.

And there's been a bunch of news on this front recently.

Specifically I'd say these 3 stories I haven't seen touched on yet:

1) https://thinkprogress.org/trump-administration-outsources-russia-policy-to-forbes-magazine-95d0eda1becd/

Someone high up, at the last minute, threw out the list compiled by government experts on which Russians should be sanctioned and instead just threw a bunch of names from a Forbes Top 100 list on there instead.

 

2) https://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-sanctioned-spy-chief-reportedly-met-cia-director-in-the-us/?via=twitter_page

One of the top men responsible for the Russian interference in the 2016 election just came to the US yesterday and the Trump admin let him in.

 

3) https://www.theblaze.com/news/2018/01/29/wikileaks-founder-messaged-someone-pretending-to-be-sean-hannity-heres-what-he-said

Russian government affiliated group Wikileaks directly contacts right-wing propaganda man to pass him damaging information about a key US Congressman who is the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee and thus the top man on the House investigation off Russian interference who isn't just trying to cover it up.

 

The TLDR is that some deeply fucked up shit with the Trump Admin, the GOP and Russia has been going on recently.

Good write up, I have been surprised at the lack of commentary here about all of these breaking stories. I think we have to accept that it is a very real possibility that the GOP (or at least, part of it) is not simply rolling over for Trump because it is politically expedient, but rather because it is necessary, especially given the recent reports that the FBI is investigating the NRA for ties to Russian money. 

I have a feeling that this corruption goes a lot deeper than just the Trump Administration, although I obviously can't substantiate that feeling yet. We'll see... or maybe we won't ever.

[Sivin]

37 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I am surprised by Texas. It's just a bit amazing to me that Texas would be the only state that voted for Trump where his approval is below 40% according to Gallup. 

 

31 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

Thanks.  And forgot to mention - since I put the data in stata I can play around with it really easily within seconds/minutes, so if anyone wants any type of breakdowns just lemme know.

 

29 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Fingers crossed this means Cruz can be knocked off. Looking at that map makes me think that the Senate really isn't that much of a long shot. 

 

20 minutes ago, dmc515 said:

As the Gallup writeup mentions, the concerning thing about that is his approval remains high in WV (61/35), ND (57/39), and MT (52/45) - although at least with the latter his approval dropped four points since July.  The good news is Trump's support is eroding in Indiana (44/51 compared to 47/48 in July) and even Missouri (47/48 compared to 49/46), which should help Donnelly and McCaskill.

I was interrupted from addressing this earlier by the strong urge to shower brought on by thinking of Ted Cruz being vulnerable when finishing my last post. 

Those numbers actually look pretty fantastic to me. Like you, dmc, I was particularly interested in Indiana and Missouri (long have I sensed a disturbance in that Republican force). Missouri used to be a strong Democrat example of Red outreach when I was a wee lad, something about that Clinton Fella really appealed to them.

Additionally of note were states with high black or Hispanic pops that languish under the yolk of Republicanism. 

New Mexico and Arizona are very curious to me along with places like the Carolina's and Georgia. 

In the former two examples we have booming electorate counts from first or second generation immigrants to take over all the old people who are starting to die. In the latter two/three we have long suppressed black citizens finally seeing actionable support from moderate whites as my own generation and gen X push back against systemic injustices that were gleefully endorsed by our Baby Booming Grandpa's. 

If NM and AZ are genuinely purple it doesn't matter if nothing happens in the Carolina's (the North one really) and Georgia, but if four longtime R pop bombs in the EC suddenly become even realistic swing states then the Senate is back in play while the presidency becomes a game of kneeling out the clock. 

Translation: 

If we don't run an unlovable sellout, it should be a fairly smooth game to manage while the R party is leeched of the Nazi's and Cottons of the world over the next 10-15. 

There should be a realignment of the parties in our near future, I think.